I feel like these questions are a setup for trouble.

 

What you've been doing is not what I would call vote analysis, js

 

I think this is unjust. I feel you kept null on me some of the time. Or felt like you were trying to play the safe and secure route and not necessarily always get involved, which is suspicious.

---------- Post automerged at 06:03 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:02 PM ----------

Yeah, if were to ask Pozzai, he would probably say vote analysis is different.

 

My name isn't Sotek, but I'm trying. ;-;

 

LMAO

Constantly posting votals is not analysis.

 

That's not what I was talking about, and you know that.

I'm starting to see everyone else's point.

 

I dunno what to tell you dude, I think being first on a low-impact player's wagon and that player subsequently turning out to be town is scummy.

 

Gonna be phone-posting only, should be around for deadline, but don't count on it just in case I fall asleep early or something.

 

KaiDASH - Can we stop being cagey about the lack of CC? The window closed, like, yesterday. I wanna post some things.

 

So... I actually just started rereading the whole thread. I'm not anywhere near finished, but I wanted to share a thing I found.

Here's this thing again.

tom (9): 'dC', 'fluff', 'dya', 'Beru', 'Fable', 'Kai', 'Vaimes', 'Citrus', 'Rubicon'
Beru (4): 'Miner', 'Jarizok', 'wei', 'tom'
Jarizok (1): 'Cobalt'
Vaimes (1): 'owner'
dC (1): 'Acio'

Not Voting (1): 'jwlk'

So... there's probably one in Jarizok / Wei unless you believe all four living witches are on tom /or/ MalAcio was scum (I believe those are both false).

-------------

Anyway, the /really/ interesting bit is this:

Wei voted tom in post #377, is fourth on the wagon, then proceeds to not talk about him while scum reading and vote parking him for, oh, nine hundred posts or so (#1285) when he moves to voting beruru /with/ tom after the tom wagon dissolves.

tom also makes kind of a show out of voting him at a few points.

This is a preetty distinguishable partner pattern, I think. As in, they're probably specifically Elders together.

Here's (some of) the relevant votals between those posts if you're curious:

Spoiler

tom (4): ['Vaimes', 'Fable', 'Rubicon', 'wei']
dC (3): ['owner', 'fluff', 'Acio']
Jarizok (2): ['Cobalt', 'Beru']
Citrus (1): ['dya']
Vaimes (1): ['Miner']
dya (1): ['Citrus']
Rubicon (1): ['Kai']
Kai (1): ['dC']
Cobalt (1): ['Jarizok']
wei (1): ['tom']

Not Voting (1): ['jwlk']

-------------

tom (5): ['Vaimes', 'Rubicon', 'wei', 'owner', 'Miner']
Citrus (3): ['dya', 'Fable', 'Acio']
Jarizok (2): ['Cobalt', 'Beru']
Miner (1): ['dC']
fluff (1): ['Jarizok']
Fable (1): ['tom']
dC (1): ['fluff']
Acio (1): ['Kai']

Not Voting (2): ['jwlk', 'Citrus']

-------------

tom (6): ['wei', 'owner', 'Miner', 'dC', 'fluff', 'Kai']
Citrus (3): ['dya', 'Rubicon', 'Vaimes']
Jarizok (2): ['Cobalt', 'Beru']
fluff (1): ['Jarizok']
dC (1): ['Acio']
Acio (1): ['Fable']
wei (1): ['tom']

Not Voting (2): ['jwlk', 'Citrus']

-------------

tom (6): ['wei', 'owner', 'dC', 'fluff', 'Kai', 'Vaimes']
Citrus (2): ['dya', 'Rubicon']
Jarizok (2): ['Cobalt', 'Beru']
wei (2): ['tom', 'Citrus']
fluff (1): ['Jarizok']
Beru (1): ['Miner']
dC (1): ['Acio']
Acio (1): ['Fable']

Not Voting (1): ['jwlk']

-------------

tom (6): ['wei', 'owner', 'dC', 'fluff', 'Kai', 'dya']
Beru (5): ['Miner', 'tom', 'Fable', 'Jarizok', 'Rubicon']
Citrus (1): ['Vaimes']
Jarizok (1): ['Cobalt']
Vaimes (1): ['Citrus']
Kai (1): ['Beru']
dC (1): ['Acio']

Not Voting (1): ['jwlk']

-------------

Beru (4): ['Miner', 'tom', 'Jarizok', 'Fable']
Fable (3): ['dya', 'Citrus', 'Rubicon']
dC (3): ['Acio', 'owner', 'fluff']
Citrus (2): ['Vaimes', 'dC']
tom (2): ['wei', 'Kai']
Jarizok (1): ['Cobalt']
Kai (1): ['Beru']

Not Voting (1): ['jwlk']

-------------

Beru (5): ['Miner', 'tom', 'Jarizok', 'Fable', 'wei']
Fable (3): ['dya', 'Citrus', 'Rubicon']
dC (3): ['Acio', 'owner', 'fluff']
Citrus (2): ['Vaimes', 'dC']
Jarizok (1): ['Cobalt']
tom (1): ['Kai']
Kai (1): ['Beru']

Not Voting (1): ['jwlk']

And what's really funny is he keeps saying he thinks tom is scum but voting beruru after that. Also, this post:

My brain is saying "he knew Beru wasn't an Elder, so he went with LW even though there shouldn't really have been anything to differentiate them at this point. Like, he could have gone with "Elders bussing" or "tom LW/beru Elder" or... basically anything, but he knew tom was an Elder, so he didn't."

Beruru's been run up so many times that I'm not actually sure we /could/ lynch her without new info or something, and I ~think the wagon movement + this post make her a likely villager since I doubt they do all this to bus a partner at the end of it?

I want wei/Jarizok wagons now.

vote: weiyaoli

 

I don't know why you waited really. They either get cc'd instantly or not at all, and that hasn't happened so.

 

Shiny new votal:

dichotomousCreator (1): jarizok (#3322)
fable (1): citrus (#3355)
citrus (1): miner (#3346)
weiyaoli (1): silvercrys (#3550)
beruru (2): fable (#3531), owner (#3539)
jarizok (6): dichotomousCreator (#2918), newcomb (#3106), vaimes (#3172), his fluffiness (#3443), kaiDASH (#3450), weiyaoli (#3483)

Abstaining (1): beruru (#2756)

7/10

-

By the way, this isn't a "vote analysis" post.

My Ordered List posts were what I was talking about...

Delphine and Vira can't keep up with what I expect from votals (MU has spoiled me a bit, I must admit) so I've been posting them myself.

-

Silver has arrived at the same coven conclusion as me. That's about what I was going to post. (plus some extra fun stuff)

So now.... I have a question for you, Silver.

Who is Fable's partner?

 

I mean, I don't know what else you want me to say that I didn't say in that post. At that point I was trying to consolidate onto Beru who I thought could also be scum instead of tom's wagon which consisted of me and kai.

Uh what? This was after Rubicon's GD claim of tom being an EW. ???

---------- Post automerged at 12:36 AM ---------- Previous post was at 12:33 AM ----------

Also what changed from your first read post?

What's different now in this re-read compared to your first?

 

I can't even right now

 

Well, it's as instant as people can come online. You can't jump the gun and accidentally scumcoach if people haven't been able to see it...

Anyway, I think that the LWs didn't CC because they didn't have the power to fight Owner and Newcomb. I mean, if one is Fable... then the other partner has to be a really strong person to lift him up instead of Fable dragging them down by claiming, right? Your reasoning is slightly off, and mine was too... you can only CC if you're stronger, because Coven will always
already know. You don't have to signal. (A Coven counterclaim might have been interesting, though.)

(unless LWs is specifically you/Fable in which case, lmao.)

 

Just kidding, I misread your post and thought you were saying this about his votal analysis

---------- Post automerged at 06:42 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:41 PM ----------

It's bad to counter-claim as a pair against an agent pair claim. That's a massive narrowing of worlds for tiny gain unless its specific worlds or something

---------- Post automerged at 06:43 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:42 PM ----------

I'm intrigued enough to look through weiyaoli's posts more, brb

 

Beruru: I'm not really convinced he's a witch, to be honest.

But it could be, like, [Fable / jari] + [tom / wei / Kai] or something? It's almost never Wei / Jari / tom as the elder coven because no bus on the CFD is extremely silly.

It could also be fluff in Kai, Fable, or Jari's position, but if Jari is a witch he almost has to be a little one.

-------------

weiyaoli: When I replaced in I was pretty sure Fable was a witch and was probably tunneling on him a bit? Okay, I was tunneling a lot. I also didn't have a chance to look at the wagon movements and such when I made that first post - those make you look way witchier than the stuff you actually said, in my mind.

And yes, that post was after Rubicon gave the flip, but.... I dunno. It speaks to me, as if to say you knew it wasn't Elder Bussing. Probably poor phrasing on my part. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

I'm not sure if I buy it.

He does really seem to have a pretty strong scum-read on Tom all of D1 (just skimmed his first 50 posts or so).

Spoiler

Also specifically this post:

Spoiler

Pulling out the most important part of the spoileredd post above:

Like I feel like this has to be super well-crafted/intentional to be co-aligned with Tom. It feels very anti-aligned to me. Also it would mean that they effectively tried to tag-team white knighting me, which is a pretty poor strategy? To make them both EW's together

---------- Post automerged at 06:53 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:52 PM ----------

The first spoiler is me pulling most of the densest posts he made (in terms of useful things/not filler/etc. especially wrt reads and views on Tom)

 

There's extra bullshit worlds with [Newcomb/Owner] Conspirator and Agent Rubicon, but I don't think that witches would have shot Rubi there if Rubi was in the Agent/LW pool.

... I guess there are also extra bullshit worlds with Coven Conspirator and Agent Rubicon, but then how did Newcomb and Owner know it was safe to claim?

I've been thinking about it, but it's highly specific.

-

Citrus - This close to halftime, it isn't actually that bad. Town doesn't really have time to solve it...

... also, Fable exists.

If they are stronger, Juniors should always CC no matter what. Especially here... with a large wagon on Owner already.

If Newcomb and Owner are mysteriously LWs, then Agents should always CC no matter what because Coven Already Knows.

tl;dr - The lack of CC is weird as any alignment.

-

Silvercrys3467 - Wei/Jari/Tom is possible if Wei and Jari were offline. The CFD did happen pretty quickly, and Wei and Jari didn't post much towards EoD...

 

No need for mentions btw, since I'm still around.

I don't really get what you're saying here. Like of course I know tom is an Elder because it was post flip? And tom voting for Beru earlier on in the day plus the vote for her at the end probably makes them not both elders? (I think Vaimes explained this better, except it was to explain why he thought Beru was town)