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Mountainous Mafia #2: Murder in Vanilla Town

Discussion in 'Little Italy' started by Vira, Sep 10, 2017.

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  1. GeneralHankerchief

    GeneralHankerchief Muggle

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    I did, actually. Interestingly enough it's what I found and presented to Fonti that Delphine commented on from the first exchange. Will get it in a sec.
    --- Post automerged ---
    Here it is Asmo.
     
  2. Asmodeus

    Asmodeus Squib

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    Oh, cool! Not quite what I thought she was looking for, but it does address the *not doing things you say you're gonna do* issue in a different way (because you followed up when you very well could have let that go).
    Thanks!
     
  3. Beruru

    Beruru First Year

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    Yo, I have a question.

    Why do people... like, multiple people, think that Rubi would have been shot last night?

    I agree with Jan about it having been more likely to be him. (Actually, I have thoughts about a Jan shot being a GM play re: the slip, but... yeah.)
    --- Post automerged ---
    Literally since the beginning? The thing that you said you "wouldn't call a townread" is a combination of explaining why it's hard to win when he's town, and also why he's easy mislynch bait (or seems like it).

    I'm really interested in the fact that my posting the meta on Fluff being a dedicated mislynch or not being around made certain people try to lynch him, btw. Like, I posted "hey this is why this thing happens," and then it happened.

    Like, why did people decide to go for Fluff? You literally would have to fabricate actual good reasons, since "he's not posting" doesn't count.
     
  4. Asmodeus

    Asmodeus Squib

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    Universal townreads is basically the only answer to that.

    I really hate that it's taken you this long to respond to my simple question about Jari and the info that stems from his flip. I wanted a REACTION, a RESPONSE, and instead I'm getting an 8-hr feedback delay. That's about the same feedback delay I'd get if I was sent a response from somewhere 10x the distance to the sun.
    I also wanted to see how you'd respond to Jan's case, but it's understandable that that's taking a bit longer given the length of her push
    headed to bed now, but I'll be on phone for awhile
     
  5. Beruru

    Beruru First Year

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    No, yomi level 0 is too obvious.

    I would have shot Jan, because his "slip" means that his existence breaks the game.
    If it really was an accident, and he claimed it as mafia.... then it's even worse.

    Like, I would probably think he was hella scum right now for the way he's approaching the nightkill + me.
    But... I can't. It can't work, because he did that thing.

    The fact that he didn't get shot is what's worrying me. Is he being allowed to survive one day to drive my mislynch so that witches can have clean hands in Fonti's place, or is he just a witch playing extremely dirty?

    ... probably the first one, but the fact that this possibility exists just makes me really, really upset.
    --- Post automerged ---
    In that first universe, it's better that they shot Fonti over Jan, because Fonti can read a bear like...... a book with really big ass letters.

    Jan.... can't. So.

    Filing this under Official Beru Prediction of why witches did the thing.
     
  6. Rubicon

    Rubicon High Inquisitor DLP Supporter

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    Believable.

    To whoever asked, I have a decent townread on beruru. I think their tone in this game is the opposite of their tone in the recent scum game, and I think they are more engaged with analysis too. Wouldn't recommend lynching them today.
    --- Post automerged ---
    (And is the level Asmo is operating on.)

    What's your read on him?
     
  7. Beruru

    Beruru First Year

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    I should probably reply to this properly now that I'm on PC.

    You read my post wrong. Again.

    I was reading Rubi, GH, Asmo, you, Miner, and Delphine as possible partners, and Fable and Fluff as people who probably couldn't be her partner.

    Like, if Fonti had been partners with Fable, there's no way she lets him fight you like that again? As, like, a game health thing, and also a general bad ideas thing.
    --- Post automerged ---
    Asmo simultaneously has never played with me before in an Actual game and should know me much better than this. It's, uh, kind of worrying that he would say and do those things. I don't..... think he's town right now, no.

    (There is one long phonepost I wrote that addresses things I think the mafia were doing to him as "you" already, lol.)
    --- Post automerged ---
    Here's a spicy spicy votal from the past, (#736)

    Fluffiness (1): Fable (#730)
    Beruru (4): Jan (#728), Fluffiness (#734), Asmodeus (#736), Miner (#746)

    Abstaining (4): Beruru, Delphine, GeneralHandkerchief, Rubicon

    I'm pretty sure there's at least one wolf in these four voting for me. If you're pushing the Beruscum world, you have to consider one of the four people who is not currently voting me as my partner.

    However, none of those will be correct. They're very likely doubly incorrect, too.

    I would go one further to say that "there's two wolves in these four voting for me", but Delphine exists. Or, uh... doesn't.

    -

    Also, for completeness' sake, here's the current votal:

    Fluffiness (1): Fable (#730)
    Fable (1): Fluffiness (#799)
    Asmodeus (1): Rubicon (#806)
    Beruru (3): Jan (#728), Asmodeus (#736), Miner (#746)

    Abstaining (3): Beruru, Delphine, GeneralHandkerchief
     
  8. Miner

    Miner Order Member

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    So is that just soft OMGUS or...
     
  9. Asmodeus

    Asmodeus Squib

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    I like how you literally didn't answer the question I wanted answered and wrote paragraphs on the one that I only wrote to add pressure (rhetorical). Nice.

    Why did you insist on lynching Jari despite starting to see him town? For info, right?
    Can you please please please share the info you got as a result of his flip?
     
  10. Rubicon

    Rubicon High Inquisitor DLP Supporter

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    I read him as lean town yesterday because Jan's reasoning that he had wanted to be scum and was bored to have rolled town made sense to me. I think HF does care enough about winning as scum to put in more effort, and never really does much to look town as town.

    Apparently there were RL reasons for the low activity, so meh.
     
  11. Beruru

    Beruru First Year

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    Nah, I've thought this since the flip.

    Or, rather, Asmo's question to me about the flip.

    His reaction to the Jan slip wasn't good, either.

    There's a point where I'm not sure if he actually thought Jari was town the entire time or was defending him because he knew Jari was town and would look better for it, too.
     
  12. Rubicon

    Rubicon High Inquisitor DLP Supporter

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    I think town!HF's approach to mafia, when he is engaged with a game, is to pick up on some little detail that I completely missed and use that as the basis for his understanding of the game. The probe to Fable about his changing read on Delphine (the CFD thing) was a very rough approximation of this.
     
  13. Asmodeus

    Asmodeus Squib

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    It's ironic that you think I'm operating on a base level when you're only looking at my pushes from that level. I'd say "get on my level" but I'm not sure I want to start a shit throwing contest off of an emotional response
    Basically, start looking past level 1 and try to determine intention before you start calling people level 1 (not gonna write scrub ahhh oh wait I did)
     
  14. Rubicon

    Rubicon High Inquisitor DLP Supporter

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    If there is a deeper intention behind your posts, by all means share it.
     
  15. Beruru

    Beruru First Year

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    Yo, if you're around.

    I never saw your answer to me asking you about this?
    --- Post automerged ---
    I, for one, would absolutely love to see an Asmo vs Rubi fight.
    --- Post automerged ---
    Town doesn't need wine, bro.

    I mean, they might need wine if they are trying some sort of.... "let me survive one night" gambit or whatever.

    If you do have a level besides "beru is obvious witch lolololo" that isn't "hardclaiming witch", I'd love to know.
     
  16. Asmodeus

    Asmodeus Squib

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    Pleeease don't start bringing this up because I've been forcing myself so so hard to not let it factor into my reads

    That aside, your post at start of phase about being unable to be lynched without font is bad, and showed me a possible motivation you'd have for killing her. Whether you'd make that post as town or wolf is wifom, so I pushed you on it to try to figure out that motivation by seeing you respond under pressure. I'm going to have to reread your response, given that it was 8hrs late and let you adjust from the initial pressure of being scumread to a more normal mindset, on a computer in the morning before I resolve whether or not I actually want you lynched today, but you absolutely deserved that push.
    I had considered simply asking my question (the one about what info you got, that you still haven't responded to) without the vote or the push, but felt you needed a wagon on you if you truly thought that you were unlynchable without font.
    The resulting people chiming in was an unexpected bonus. I think Jan's case is a bit over the top (as if he smelled blood), but balancing that against his spew has the spew winning out every time. Rubicon scumreading me was the biggest surprise, but I think that's probably a townsided response as opposed to widely townread-scum!Rubi picking the other widely townread player to push on. I still want him to answer my question, but he's not the biggest concern for me today.

    Wow that was longer than I thought, I guess getting upset at stupid shit can make for good phonepost motivation
     
  17. Jan

    Jan Fourth Year

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    @Beruru

    Please tell me why you had a townread on fluff that early, thank you.

    You talk about his meta during d1 like it is total rng and no way to read him.

    There has to be something special about him that you thought he would not/never do as scum.

    Point me to it.

    It is important.
    --- Post automerged ---
    @Beruru

    Please tell me why you had a townread on fluff that early, thank you.

    You talk about his meta during d1 like it is total rng and no way to read him.

    There has to be something special about him that you thought he would not/never do as scum.

    Point me to it.

    It is important.
    --- Post automerged ---
    I did the douplepost!

    There is a first time for everything.
    --- Post automerged ---
    There is so much bears stuff that I feel like I kind of want to respond to and push on, but like .. I don't get so little value back that it is all kinds of frustrating.

    I will most likely just turn around try to reaffirm some of my townreads and then work through the PoE again, while waiting for her to do something that feels real (and tell me where exactly she got the townread on fluff).
     
  18. Beruru

    Beruru First Year

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    I got bored, so here's the #746 votal next to the one from yesterday at the height of the Fluff wagon/the Jari wagon before consolidation:

    Fluffiness (1): Fable (#730)
    Beruru (4): Jan (#728), Fluffiness (#734), Asmodeus (#736), Miner (#746)

    Abstaining (4): Beruru, Delphine, GeneralHandkerchief, Rubicon

    -

    Fable (1): Miner (#522)
    GeneralHandkerchief (2): Delphine (#481), Fluffiness (#580)
    Jarizok (4): Beruru (#337), Fontisian (#355), Rubicon (#498), Jan (#623)
    Fluffiness (4): GeneralHandkerchief (#421), Asmodeus (#436), Jarizok (#660), Fable (#664)

    -

    Fluff and Miner spent as much time out in the weeds as possible.

    Asmo had been on Fluff pretty early, and spent the entire day hard defending Jari....

    ... and Jan came late, and spent most of the day hard defending Fluff.

    Asmo's vote had been here since this... basically throwaway vote on someone he had already been told repeatedly at this point had a lurker meta? He left it there until literally the last possible moment, too.

    Like, Fluff has posted more this D2 than he has by the halfway point of some games. It's really...... weird. Not scummy, just extremely unexpected.

    Jan is Jan.

    Miner is.... something I'll hopefully be able to address later. Fairly soon, but also not right now.

    Also.

    The outlier on Jari's lynch, here.... is Rubicon. Everyone else on the lynch at that point is either confirmed town or not-yet-confirmed town.
    --- Post automerged ---
    .......... ?

    There is no something special when it comes to Fluff, at least for me. I just have to like, think about it. Dude exists in an eternal null spot in my heart, and maybe a Fluff that actually posts might be able to change something about it. Usually I just sit and think and then tinfoil about him being scum all game, like in WH9.

    Harping on a reason that you already know I don't have as a reason to bury me is annoying because I know it's something you know that I can't win against, and you're town.
    --- Post automerged ---
    This is actually a fucking good answer. I formatted it properly so that it's actually readable, btw.

    ... so, like.

    What are your actual reads now because of this? Where did you get to?

    Also, shit, I think your question is open in one of my tabs. Hold on a sec.
     
  19. Jan

    Jan Fourth Year

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    I don't get this.

    None of your comments before your readwall would make me think you read him town at the time. (would be a nullread in most cases)

    Even this does not fit with the read you gave in your readwall. There has to be something anything that makes someone think that another person is town, esp when you normally would not approach a read on the person by giving him a townread for nothing.

    If I wanted to burry you I would just quote your iso and ask people to read it. I am trying to solve you, which is 10 times harder.

    Moving on because apparently there won't be any answer that might satisfy me or lead me anywhere but to burn you at the stake.

    I need 5 sure towns to win. I guess finding those is better than solving you.
     
  20. Beruru

    Beruru First Year

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    Counterpoint: You moderated WH9 and saw what I was doing in thread and in my QT and therefore definitely know that this is not always true, at least when you're applying things to me.

    ... is that a good thing to say about myself? Probably not.

    It's true, though. Gotta own your own bad habits.
    --- Post automerged ---
    I wanted to know more about your alignment, I wanted to know about Fonti's alignment (rip), I wanted to know who would give reasons for the inevitable swap and how the final wagon would form, I wanted to know what it would take for people hard defending Jari to switch sides, I definitely wanted to see if anyone on the wagon tried to give actual reasons (and there were some good ones that nobody took!), I really wanted to know if anyone wanted to fight me and Fonti properly (but there really wasn't enough time!) and mostly, even though the posts at the end were really towny and gave me the last-minute realization that I was fucking wrong (that Jari correctly spotted, rip him), I wanted to see if he was, in fact, a witch.

    Out of the three possible EoD wagons (me, Fluff, Jari), I'm pretty sure that none of us were/are mafia. However, Jari got towny too late in the Day for the town to actually stand a chance of finding an actual witch. Only realizing or deciding that you have to defend yourself 30 minutes from EoD is literally the worst if you're town, because you're denying your team an actual chance to find a real witch. This is why this site has this annoying ass CFD meta - people don't defend themselves until the last second, and then the entire town has to spin the roulette to find a witch. Worked in WH9, I guess, although that was..... partially also witch driven, RIP Tom and RIP LWs.

    As for the actual info post-flip...

    Fonti died, which is probably good, since all the info I got due to that was..... not good for her. Which, I guess, was passed on to me from the rest of town's perspective. Fair.

    I'm town, Jan is town.

    Need to take a closer look at Rubicon. Also need to take a closer look at.... some other people.
    --- Post automerged ---
    Like, evaluating people's places in the EoD vote order, the contents of the vote-containing posts as well as the immediate prior posts, and measuring the amount of opportunism in the lynch, mostly.

    And then... looking at certain people based off that.
    --- Post automerged ---
    @Miner - I don't think anyone is really scumreading you that hard right now. Why are you so worried about it?

    Also, where are your reads right now? (besides "beru is a witch LUL".)
    --- Post automerged ---
    Oooh, I forgot that I catalogued people's reactions to Jan revealing his slip:

    Rubi, Fluff, and Fable ignored it entirely.

    GH thought it was the seer cover joke.

    Delphine didn't get it at all, and joked about the meeps.

    Asmo acknowledged that it must exist, but not that it might actually be clearing.

    Miner didn't understand why Jan would try and clear himself D1, because he always dies N1 on this forum anyway.

    Fonti thought that Jan was town before the thing.
    --- Post automerged ---
    Why do I only get to post when nobody else is online?
    --- Post automerged ---
    I just realized that the new forum doesn't have timestamps on automerge, and instead overwrites the timestamp at the head of the original post.

    I don't like this.
    --- Post automerged ---
    Can you explain this with more words? I know you wrote like three sentences above this in your post about Rubicon but I want more about Rubicon and Fluff together.
    --- Post automerged ---
    Is this really why you think people are voting for me?
    --- Post automerged ---
    Beru z time. Will do more after I wake up, depending. Probably.
     
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