None of Delphine's links work for me, I'm guessing because we're set at different posts per page (I'm at 50). So I'll just talk about her wall in general.

There's a lot of good things to like in this, I specifically really enjoy her trying to get in my mindset re: "doing my best Eido impression" - it's probably closer to Newcomb, minus the actual success, but if that entire section of her wall is coming from a wolf, it's very well done and my hat's off to her. Delphine's out of my POE.

The problem with her being out of my POE is that the conclusion is flawed, and not just for the standard chestnut of "oh she's misreading me and I'm really town". The conclusion of her read on me after the entire mindset/Eido/etc. exercise is the following:

i.e. she still thinks I'm a wolf.

Here's the problem with that: Delphine then starts going into partner analysis and... doesn't really come to any conclusion. There's still both original wolves running around out there, and we're down to very little breathing room. If I'm reading the analysis right, she rules out me/beru and me/Miner, casts a lot of doubt to a lesser extent on me/Asmo and me/Fable, which just leaves me/Rubicon but there's not really a positive conclusion on that either besides "idk, maybe".

So, Delphine.

We have 30 hours left in the phase. I'm clearing you. What I'd like you to do with that time, if possible, is sort me out once and for all. You need to decide for good two things:
1) whether or not I'm a wolf
2) if I am a wolf, who my partner is.

If you can't find a satisfactory answer for 2, then you need to revise your answer for 1 accordingly. Because we're running out of time on this one and you need to start looking elsewhere.
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Gonna start talking to/about Asmo and others, but I'm holding off for a bit in the hopes that somebody else posts so I can avoid the dreaded automerge.

 

@Delphine

1) I'm pretty sure I've townread partners before. I townread Quiddity in the clusterfuck of a TH a while ago, and I'm fairly sure I tr at least one of my 4 partners in RWBY (it's not very clear to me but I remember only really wanting to bus Fable that game, ironically (and then of course Waco because he AFKed)).

2) I literally have nothing else for you. It's the way I worded it. I needed to word it basically in a way such that it wouldn't really be obviously town or scum and wait and see how fonti reacted to it.

3) As a wolf I'm pretty selfish and I self-pres a lot. Just look at the way I tried to save myself in RWBY or even HP Mafia. In HP Mafia as the Goon I buried Jari in a totally swing-able situation despite him having a vest because I didn't want it to reflect poorly on me.

4) If you look at RWBY, I basically was able to brush off most of the suspicion aimed at me for like ~2 Dayphases because fonti was hard townreading me so I kind of played off the "fonti's never wrong when she reads me" thing that I had going on at that point. In a Mountainous game such as this one with no PR's, her defense as well as Jan's repeated "Jari is very good at reading Miner. Jari was town and said Miner was town." would have been invaluable to scum!me. Like, Jan basically said he would never lynch me, and he doesn't really know how to read me so he's essentially following Jari's read to the end. That's about as good of a situation as I could ask for.

 

Mountainous Mafia #2 Votal 3.3

GH [2] - Fable, Miner.
Rubicon [1] - Beru.

Not Voting [4] - Asmo, Delphine, GH, Rubicon.

With seven players alive, it takes four votes to soft-lynch and five votes to hard-lynch!

Day Three ends on September 22 at 3pm PST.

 

:thinking:
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Oh and Beru is doublevoting too o.o

 

Fixed???

 

I miss Fonti.

No, no, it's actually hilarious.

In the next game, WHI, we swapped. Instead of me being the priest and dC being a witch, it was me who was the witch and dC who was the priest. It was actually pretty funny...
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In thread opinions obviously aren't a person's actual thoughts if they're mafia, but that doesn't mean they can't seriously push me...

 

Since a couple of people keep asking about it, here's my Rubi/Fluff summary from earlier:

When I iso'd Rubi early on D2, his posts generally passed the smell test aside from a few questionable moments with Fluff. Since that was my only point of question with Rubi, I zeroed in on the two likeliest explanations from my POV, in no particular order:
- Rubicon is partners with Fluff and that's the exact team
- Rubicon is just town and it was just A Random Weird Thing, and Fluff was also town.

Since Fluff was independently on the bottom of my POE, I decided to push the first option.

Earlier explanation 1
Earlier explanation 2

(these probably only work if you're at 50 posts per page)

------

Now, Fluff's flip has obviously changed things a bit. As per my above he looks better, but I was starting to get vibes from him late on D2, which I'll try to put into words now.

There's been a lot of general commentary (from Beru, mostly) about how this game is fairly slow-paced and not much is going on because everyone's been running in place. This is true of a few people moreso than others. Beru, for example, is actively trying to progress the gamestate forward. Asmo is as well to a lesser extent.

But Rubi... isn't, not really.

Rubi strikes me as a very confident and capable player in general, just from the content of his posts when he has posted and overall vibes. But in this game there's been a distinct lack of leading from him and trying to actually push lynches. It's why I tangled with him at EOD, because there was a lot of Thought but no actual hard stances until I drew a line in the sand and basically demanded he come up with one on D2.

Progression on that:

By the end of this exchange we had less then ten minutes to go in the day and Rubicon was still in "suss stuff out mode" like we were still 48 hours away from the lynch. I don't think it was nearly appropriate enough of a reaction considering the circumstances we were under, especially from my POV knowing the two lynch candidates at the time (myself/Miner, this was before the Fluff CFD started) contained at least one townie.

Now, let's take a look at Rubi's reaction during that CFD. He's expressed on numerous occasions that he's not a fan of CFDs in general and his behavior at EOD2 reinforces that.

(directed at Fluff upon entry)

At this point Rubi's been pushing both Miner and myself today, so he now has one too many scumreads. That said, I can completely understand this reaction due to Fluff's posts at the time.

Asmo starts the Fluff CFD.

Now, this was an automerged post, so judging by Rubi's reaction in the second part, and considering timestamps, he didn't see Asmo's vote before moving onto me.

This was the VC before the last two votes:

So not factoring into account Asmo's vote, Rubi attempted to go for the kill shot on me over Miner. It put me in soft lynch territory - potentially merely securing a mislynch, potentially saving a partner.

So Rubicon's stances right now as demonstrated by his behavior and votes are the following:

- He scumreads all three of myself, Miner, and Fluff.
- He doesn't like CFDs.
- Despite this he still thinks Fluff is the scummiest of the three of us and thinks myself as scummier than Miner.

If Miner is one of the two wolves, this is a really bad look for Rubicon because there's clear intent with his votes to keep Miner alive.

A later tally:

The Miner wagon has totally dissipated by this point but we're no longer in soft lynch territory.

This puts Fluff at five. A moment later Fable switches from Fluff to myself, putting it back at 4-4, and Rubicon calls him out for it, before Jan moves to Fluff and gives him the kiss of death.

------------

The conclusion of the above: From my POV Rubicon's EOD movements do not look good. Of the three people in contention for the lynch, Rubicon is far and away the least interested in Miner despite shading him for most of the day phase. Miner is the only possible one of the three who is mafia, and actively works to make sure a mislynch happens.

The caveat to this is that if Miner's town the entire thing is an epic fail for all but two of us anyway, and in that case I'd actually award town points to Rubicon just for being as invested as he was.

But with his behavior towards me as well as his voting pattern, there could be something more.
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-----------IN CASE OF AUTOMERGE, HAVE A LINE BREAK----------------

So here's where I am right now:

Not me.

Not Beru, not Delphine.

Two in Asmo/Rubi/Miner/Fable.

That's not game-winning though.

As per the above I think there's a decent chance of the team being Rubi/Miner. A Miner lynch does two things: First, it helps with Rubi. If Miner's town, Rubi is probably also town due to the wagons at EOD2 being all townies and Rubi doing more than he could have if he was just a wolf there (Fable and Asmo also did stuff but I won't talk about that quite yet). Second, it, uh, lynches Miner and has a reasonable chance of bagging a wolf.

Won't vote Miner until I know this is its own separate post but I think this is the way to go for today.

 

Just a heads up to let you guys know, I'm going to be working Tuesday at 3pm, which is EOD for Day Four. Since I want to be here when EOD happens, I'm going to be extending Night an additional 24 hours. So Night Three will be 48 hours and Day Four will remain 72 hours but end on Wednesday at 3pm PST instead.

If you have any questions about this, please contact me in your QT. Thanks.

 

When someone writes the case you were gonna make. Damn.

Don't really agree on the conclusion about If Not Miner Then Also Not Rubi but that's just because it's running out of people? Like, Asmo/Fable is something you also have to figure out the verity of, if you want to consider that...

... I could add more, based on wolfing with Rubi last game? And, like, WH9. Play comparison time incoming. At work until, like, 5 tho.... so it'll be like, at least 7 hours from this post because I have to find all the shit. Probably more, tbh. Witchhunts have too many fuckin posts.

 

Vote: Miner

I get what you're saying Beru, but if Fluff/Miner (and me obviously) are all town then does Rubicon need to do what he does at EOD2 if he's a wolf?

That question's only semi-rhetorical btw, would like to know if it's in his range to fake that kind of engagement with a CFD bearing down on him.

I also think wolves, in the case of v/v/v wagons, are fine with a mislynch happening there simply because the POE stays incorrect for a longer period of time.
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"fine with a mislynch happening" should read "fine with NO LYNCH happening", sorry.

 

Mountainous Mafia #2 Votal 3.4

GH [2] - Fable, Miner.
Rubicon [1] - Beru.
Miner [1] - GH.

Not Voting [3] - Asmo, Delphine, Rubicon.

With seven players alive, it takes four votes to soft-lynch and five votes to hard-lynch!

Day Three ends on September 22 at 3pm PST.

 

You can't be fine with a no lynch happening. That's, like... Scum claiming.

 

Yeah, but.

He could have just "not been around".

Rubi was doing more than the bare minimum IMO if the wagons were v/v/v.

 

You need to be voting me today if you think the team is me/Miner. It's the tougher push, but would be a much townier decision for you to make here.

I'm not okay with you repeatedly saying I'm town except for interactions with X and then voting X instead of me.

 

I don't care about "looking town", I care about being right.

If Miner flips wolf that's one wolf down and a good lead to the second.
If Miner flips town it resolves you and locks down my POE.
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Like, what even is that advice?
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Also Rubi if you want me to stop conditionally scumreading you then you need to stop doing questionable stuff.

 

I guess I don't understand why I'm even being cleared in worlds where Miner is town. For example, if you (as town) believed that I was scummy for not pushing hard enough to solve compared to beru and Asmo, one assumes you would still think so if Miner flipped town. Or even feel more strongly about it.

If we lynched me first, would my town flip make you think Miner was town despite of the different things you've called him scummy for? Does that make sense?
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The analysis:
(1) beruru and Delphine are lock town
(2) There are exactly two scum in the remaining players
(3) Rubicon did a thing that was like saving Miner, so they are one team
(4) The other two players in the PoE are the other possible team

is just... mechanical? Regardless of whether Miner is scum.
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I read this as scum wanting to see the temperature of reactions (e.g. from beru agreeing) before voting. It seems like an unnecessary extra step otherwise.
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The question is:
What percentage probability do you assign to the world where Miner flips scum?

Is he scum, for the many things you have pointed out, or not?

What percentage probability do you assign to me, Asmo and Fable being scum respectively?

What makes you suspect the other two, and do you believe those reasons make them scum, or not?

Conditional reads are fine and all, but you in particular seem to be using them like scaffolding for the moves you want to make today versus natural thoughts that you believe in.

 

GH, you can't possibly analyze Rubicon's voting patterns but completely ignore mine?

Fluff is, like I've said in the past many times, probably the easiest mislynch in games like this where his content is super spotty. Unless he like... fucking randomly manages to start a CFD on scum (a la HP Mafia), he is NEVER cleared. (SVM is an anomaly).

Jari is also another relatively easier mislynch than anyone else in the game. Like, we kinda thunderdomed a little bit in RWBY and he got lynched.

I just... fuck I should've lynched your ass yesterday.
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Also, no one's actually made a case on my content and why it's scummy.

The only case I've heard is "This one Thing that you did d1 in which you made it clear was you trying to do something new/weird had wording that couldn't possibly come from town." which I've addressed a thousand times.

Goddamn.

 

I think Asmo is town and me fighting him for your entertainment is probably not what this game needs. If there is something you would like me to go into more detail about, feel free to ask.
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You have actually not explained the mindset tell that Delphine picked up on, which I thought was probably accurate. You brushed it off with "wording tells are dumb" which is... not an explanation. Otherwise, you've mostly been whining about people scumreading you.

Find scum and convince us to lynch them. If beru is scum, you've made it through one half of that and kind of fizzled out.

 

Rubicon- this is a gut read, but I think he's town here. I don't think that fonti or Jan has been this off on reading him, and there's also the fact that he moved the lynch off me, which he would never do as scum. I lol at all of you who think that we're buddies.

Delphine- pretty much the best case on GH I've seen, and probably is the reason I'm compromising off of beru to go for GH first. She could possibly be WH8 Vira I guess, but I highly doubt it.

Asmo- Not someone I'd lynch today. If GH flips town, though, he warrants close attention.

beru- I've made my feelings clear on this subject. I think she's scum. I don't really know her scum meta, but I just think that the whole "I'm the queen of bad decisions" and all the "Lol I'm being kept alive because I keep helping scum mislynch" is all bullshit and a smokescreen for actual scum. I don't know why people keep saying she's outside of her scumrange, and until someone bothers to show or tell me wtf they're talking about I'm going to tunnel this...

GH- buuuut not until GH is dead. Because that case on Rubicon cannot come from anyone except scum who wants me as a mislynch. He's okay with Rubicon being cleared after I flip, because his partner is probably in a good enough position to get one more mislynch and win the game off that. If GH really does flip scum I'd almost certainly lynch beru next, and I'd be willing to hardclear both Rubicon and Delphine, which means there's only one more town I have to find.

Fable- Fable's in this weird position where he's been going off about being scumread again, but I actually can't tell if this is his scum meta or not because this IS what he did in RWBY, but he also talked about (in RWBY scumchat) how he was completely ripping his meta to shreds or whatever. And he also did this as town in one of the WH games (I forget). If GH isn't a hit then tomorrow he should be one of the two wagons (Asmo being the other), but I don't think that lynching him today serves a purpose. If GH is scum then... uh... reevaluate Fable in that context.

Also, @Rubicon, I just have that kind of mindset as town. There's absolutely nothing to explain. If you don't believe me, lynch me. Honestly, if I get lynched for that then there's nothing I can do because that's just how I played D1. I'd apologize to the rest of town for losing the game, but TBH I'd be too salty about the reasons behind my mislynch to do it.
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Also, that thing that beru does where she does "spicy" votes and votes random people is more likely to come from scum looking to see where the thread is at on townclears than it is to come from town that's honestly paranoid.

Picking on Rubicon's content is... uh... ????

Although it is interesting to note that GH is also picking on his content.
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Also, can we talk about how GH said he's never aligned with fluff?

 

Miner, pick some random fantasy strike games out of the list of games I played that are still online that I linked somewhere in my ISO and read my ISO from those... that might help.
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I wouldn't call this paranoid. There's only two witches, but simultaneously, there have to be two witches. You know?