Depends on where you go with it.

 

Uh. 80%? I could see being wrong 20 out of a 100 times, that feels about right. Which is, uh, slightly above rand.

<screaming internally>

Yeah fine in for a penny in for a pound, 90%, maybe I look dumb maybe I don't.

I... don't think Fable's with Vira. You're definitely not with her. I don't think fonti's with her although I could understand someone having that read. But like... just think about what would have to be happeinng in wolfchat for the last 24 hours to go down like it did with fonti and Vira both being w here, it's really hard to see.

Distressingly enough, if Vira really does flip red here, I'm taking a hard look at ScottSlot. I really, really thought he was newb town, but I can't deny that that Vira case on him was like... pretty textbook distancing/bussing. ALthough that's mitigated by the fact that if she was trying to change up her meta - and lord knows she's aware of the "Vira always busses" meme by now - Scott would have been a pretty tempting target in the low-hanging fruit / easy to pick on category.

I want to say 113/Cuth. 113 kind of felt like... piling on, almost? Cuth no real reason to specifically tie him to Vira other than Vira placing him low in her first colored reads list and going "I've lost track of what's going on with him," that and the fact that I haven't been able to get to town on Cuth after like a bazillion posts, so...

If Vira does flip red, expect me to answer this question in a lot more detail, obviously.

 

@Newcomb - Point out where you disagree or where I'm wrong.

[Stanari, Vaimes, Wei, Jarizok] 0 scum.
[Miner, 113] 0-1 scum (Probably 1 I guess? Probably it being 113 too?)
[Yeti, Dya, Fonti] 0-1 scum (Probably 1 again? I'm at Fonti>Dya>Yeti, what are you at?)
[Vira] 1 scum

That leaves [Cuth, Fable, Owner, Tshiah] where there'd have to be 3 scum there but I don't really have a strong scum read on any of them? I could see almost all of them possibly being scum but there are a few pairings in there I even sort of doubt?

 

And then I immediately agree with 113's trs on Yeti and Dya.
And it sounds like he's getting that from a lot of the same places I am?

 

Fonti was lolcatty cause she subbed into a DOB slot that was being bussed and they wanted it to be lynched.

 

I am aware, thank you.

 

I feel like you're way more concerned with like, how people are looking recently than their entire body of work. Town is town is town, it doesn't actually degrade over time, it just feels like it does.

I mean, we can talk about him, but what do you want to talk about? I've made a case why he's town, it still feels fairly decent to me.

 

I disagree, someone who has a townie day and then coasts after or doesn't maintain townie behavior the rest of the game - why can't they? It's easy to burst town and then slide UTR from a few early but stong reads.

 

I'm not evn sure there's a world Fable works in actually?

Fables not with Fonti or Dya here, I somewhat doubt that he's with Yeti. I also don't really see him with Tsaih given how the day started and Fable/Owner didn't feel hugely like W/W plus he's one of the few people constantly bringing that slot up to be pushed on.

@Fonti, if you're strongest scum read other than Vira is Fable you got any idea how he fits as scum here?

 

What does his number of posts have to do with anything? Like... that one single post at EoD2 I made was enough to get most people to townread me. If you read something and you're like, "I'm 99% sure that comes from a villager perspective", why does their other content or lack thereof matter so much?

Feel like this is just something I'm never going to understand about the MU "realtime interaction" crew.

 

T: Vaimes, Stanari
LT: Dya, Fable, Vira, Tsaiah
N: fonti, Cuth, owner
LS: Jari, Reg, Newcomb, Yeti
S: 113

Vaimes- Honestly a weaker read than it should be, but I trust Jan not to misread him.
Stanari- I know that volume-clearing Stanari isn't a thing, but still, 600+ posts.... Also, there's just a general flow to her thoughts that others have touched upon (the whole stream-of-consciousness thing) that I don't think can come from scum.

Dya- Frustration feels very genuine. Also, with what little interaction I had with her on 113, I feel like she genuinely tried to see my POV, even though she didn't even have to go dig through my case + 113's ISO. There's just a sense of genuinely trying to solve the game which is hard to pull off for scum.

Fable- and by extension Vira.
I voted Vira towards SOD because I kinda sheeped Reg and then fonti added on to it and fonti gets to lynch two people before I pass judgement on her so I was like whatever. But then Fable's hard-defense of Vira surprised the shit out of me. And honestly, the point he made about Vira struggling so hard in this game is a good one. The last wolfgame Vira had she was probably the only consensus townread that wasn't literally mechanically confirmed, and that was because she was just so comfortable bussing teammates and making it to MYLO without issue. Here, it's literally the opposite. Considering we're getting close to literally being whitewashed here, it just feels like so much more of a "I want to win this game but I have no idea who's scum." I'm also pretty (?) sure that Vira hasn't played much offsite, so this might be an issue of not being able to read new people.
There's also the thing where Vira's neck was literally in the noose when she freaked out and left, and honestly at that point, if you're scum, why even try and come back? The fact that she actually did come back and try, readslist and all (Despite the lack of reasoning on some of it), is more town-indicative than not in my mind.

Tsaiah- sheep read. Sheeping stanari, in case it wasn't clear, although last I remember she got a lot more unclear on tsaiah so IDK if this is the right spot anymore.

fonti- Agreement is agreement.

owner- Activity drop. No idea what it means, but clearly somewhere along the way in this game someone was misread and it could very well be her.

Jari- The dude has been flip-flopping a lot. I could definitely see him as scum, since this is the first game that I've ever seen Jari unable to read me. I think it might very well be that he's scum but he knows that I'm town because I've clearly been town but he's just unwilling to admit it because maybe my lynch is in his Path to Victory? On the other hand, I've never really been able to read Jari well so fuck if I know.

Cuth/Reg- i'll be honest, the two of you, my eyes kind of just glaze over when I read your posts. Like, it's nothing really against you guys, but you guys seem to like wallposts and I... I can't really handle wallposts (yeah yeah call me a hypocrite for this post, but Stanari asked so...)

The only reason Reg is below Cuth is because he started the Vira wagon, and considering there's been pretty much no interest elsewhere all day long I'm very leery of that wagon.

Newcomb- I'm going to drink some wine here and say that Newcomb just isn't playing his towngame. He talked a lot about his preferred style of getting into people's head, and trying to figure out their alignment from there. But like, take the fonti read for example. It's so... weird. Like that comment about fonti putting the finishing touches on a victory, that's just not something I expect town!Newcomb to bring up. Because if fonti's actually scum here, this is not her putting the finishing touches on a victory and Newcomb should know that better than anyone. Especially with the pressure she's been getting, I feel like wolf!fonti really goes hard for someone. She's not. She's spent most of the Day respecting Vira's freakout moment and kind of just... being much more laid back. it's really hard to explain what I'm trying to say here, but if I were to take Newcomb's own method and use it on him for a moment, I just don't see that making sense.

Yeti- I think she's w/w with 113. I'll be honest, I'm about as confident in this read as I am about tsaiah being town. I don't really know Yeti, but she also did replace into SS which was a questionable slot d1.

113- Been there, done that.

 

My strongest scumread other than vira changes every five minutes.

I could see Fable/Yeti/.113 as a thing.

 

...you haven't seen me roll scum.

I'm pretty sure on Tsaiah at the moment.

 

Is it stupid to cfd?

vote: 113

 

Pretty sure that she is ___________

 

Town.

 

Aight well, just imagine tsaiah moves up in my readslist then.

 

First tier - ehhhh, I'm not as confident as you. Vaimes and Wei, sure, I can point to concrete posts where I go, "that's just town." Jarizok/Stanari are more like, huge huge huge bigpicture "this doesn't feel like their scumgame" type things which I wouldn't exactly bet the game on.

Agree that there almost has to be one in Miner/113 and that they're never w/w. Also leaning 113.

yeti/Dya/fonti - Hum. No more than one scum... I think I agree with not dya/fonti, not yeti/fonti, but I'm not sure about dya/Yeti? It would kinda surprise me but offhand I can't eliminate it unless I'm straight up forgetting part of the game which is entirely possible at this point.

And yeah, Vira's just a wolf here.

 

beru's like 50ish??? minutes left in day votal:

Vira (7): .113, Vaimes, Fontisian, Weiyaoli, Regfan, Cuthalion, Stanari
Fontisian (3): Yeti, Fable, Jarizok
.113 (2): Miner, Dyachei
Yeti (1): Owner
Jarizok (1): Vira

Abstaining (2): Newcomb, Tsaiah

With 16 alive, it is 9 to soft lynch, and 13 to hard lynch.