My town core are ..

Cobalt
Stanari (r. Delphine)
Gemma
Newcomb
Vaimes
Waco Kid
dichotomousCreator

Help!

Unless all scum are between Fonti, Asmo, Jari & Shadow .. I am wrong on someone.

Oh and then there is tom who is likely town but won't get into any circles bacause no.

I am not even feeling bad about 3 scum in those .. but like .. really?


Stanari has an outside chance of scum, but that will resolve on its own soon enough..

I mean - I won't be able to stop my towns from misslynching each other. But I will try.

Cobalt stop the things you are doing. Thanks.

 

That's...a plump towncircle.

Mine's just Cobalt and tom :V
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I guess I could throw in Newcomb ~for the aesthetic~ but I've got my Eye on him.

 

I'm thinking Waco might be the scum in your town circle? Been underwhelmed by him since his shadow vote.

 

If he is scum then shadow is likely town.

But that is the one pick that changes the poe very very little.
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You know me. Part of those are friends. part of the are pocket attempts.

 

>font
>underwhelmed

 

Hmmm.

I get that it's probably wrong, but I'm still feeling hella sketched out by Stanari. I don't get why anyone liked the bit about Gemma. It wasn't surface level per se, but it was kind of diving in to one part of the game that should be irrelevant without other parts, and it doesn't feel like a natural Stanari thought process.
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Been pretty underwhelmed by von since the first day, tbh.

 

That's not what you said when you put my name at the top of your list.

 

Ok, dC, why are you explaining that you're just wagoning Jari for pressure as you're doing it?

 

Ooh, I'm close to 100 posts.

 

Nah, pretty used to you being underwhelming town.
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And now you are a little bit closer. Congratulations.

 

Thank for the merge break, boo for the awful joke.

---

Lynch

Shadow (4): Newcomb (#710), Gemma (#715), Waco (#724), Stanari (#931)
Waco (2): Shadow (#661), Cobalt (#945)
Jarizok (2): Vaimes (#937), dC (#1105)
Stanari (1): Fontisian (#1009)
Gemma (1): Jarizok (#998)
dC (1): Tom (#1106)

Abstaining (2): Jan, Asmo


Lump

Newcomb (4): Asmo (#402), Shadow (#922), Stanari (#931), Cobalt (#945)
Jarizok (3): Jarizok (#413), Fontisian (#877), Gemma (#1030)
Tom (2): Tom (#17), Newcomb (#148)
Waco (2): Waco (#25), dC (#1105)
Asmo (1): Vaimes (#798)
Gemma (1): Jan (#1046)


Day ends in like 8 hours. Softlynch is 7, hardlynch is 10. Hashtag votalz!
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or hashtag votalz?

muh bluh search feature bite me

 

Lump Jarizok

 

@Jan

Lynch: Jarizok
Lump: Shadow

Y/n?

 

...I mean, I thought I was slightly subtler about it than that? I was trying to imply it would be an actual vote if he didn't do anything to shift it.
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(still debating whether #1120 counts. Kind of finding it hilarious b/c his "wagon" is two people and boy he sure turned on me lightning quick when I voted him which makes little sense if he was ACTUALLY townreading me for things other than my behaviour around him, but at the same time like three people have criticized me for that and the other two are heavier townreads of his so idk)

Unrelated: Is there consensus on which roles should claim if facing a lynch at dayend in Tinyhunt? I feel like that's something we should process before we get to 30 mins to go.

 

You were hella unsubtle.
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Priest or acolyte should claim holy, leeroy and dob should claim for kill reasons. Anything else?

Obviously you only claim if it's clear you're going to be the lynch.
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Ah, the Judge should claim as well. Those five.

 

Can you sell me Shadow being more likely town?

 

@Gemma

Gonna respond to a few things in your bigpost.

I mean. I don't super see why you'd be considering that it doesn't actually mean anything. I think it's patently obvious that it means a lot of things, regardless of my alignment. Coming at it from this weirdly broad perspective of like, "ohh Newcomb's probably town, or maybe it's a huge effort post that means nothing." That's... a very odd way to approach a post like that.

Similarly confused as to why you'd straight up take fonti or Jan's word that it's a clearing post, since like. A) That ignores the possibility that they're my partners and B) unless you've read just a metric fuckload of games you weren't in, you don't really have the context needed to evaluate if them clearing me is actually something worth listening to.

I mean, you do you, but this seems a little shallow.

I have plenty of people to talk to, thanks. Also, interaction isn't a huge part of my game. I enjoy talking with some people, but I'm perfectly content in the role of ivory-tower thread observer. Tbh, I've never understood people who seem to get all bent out of shape about not having direct interactions with people. It's not like you're... missing a conversation IRL or something. The words are there, in the thread, and aren't changing. Anyone's perfectly free to form an opinion about something that happened even if they weren't a part of the conversation.

I do think you're projecting. First, I'd say that that post did actually swing my opinion fairly hard on some players, notably Delphine and tom, up and down respectively. Second, I'd say that "I only make a post like that when I feel strongly about something" is not something that applies to me. That post wasn't about having strong opinions, it was about solidifying/verifying the opinions I already had, and doing so in a transparent manner.

Talking to people and interacting with them is overrated. TL;DR walls goat.

Yeah, was gonna say. The fact that you're focusing so much on process and trying to like, get a handle on how I do things, what my personal preferences are as a player is just... ????. Like, why does any of that matter? That post I made was 599020234 small answers to the big question of the game. Did I have the answers already, when I wrote it, IYO? That is the crux of the matter you should be focusing on, not, like, "why do I write walls."

I would say that, A), the importance and strength of good townreads in a small game like this one cannot be overstated. If you get 5-6 townreads you feel confident about, you can literally just lynch everyone else and win. It's a proven, effective method that wins games more often than anything else, and B), like I referenced earlier, the strength of my reads literally depends on what happens in the thread. I don't have any personal control over it. I can't just will lock scumreads into existence. I mean, that would be pretty cool, but it's not really an ability of mine. Sometimes I get one strong correct scumread and push it to conclusion - like tom in Owner's market or Vaimes in Concussion Mafia. Sometimes I have a handful of strong townreads and the rest of the game is a shrug PoE whatever lynch, like in the Westeros game. Sometimes I have some strong townreads, a meh pile, and a few scumreads I'm not completely sold on, like the MTGS Invitational game. This is shaping up to be somewhat like the latter.

Also, "weight" is a relative thing here. Like, you're seeing Jarizok/Shadow at the bottom of my list and thinking "wow Newcomb sure does think those people are lock scum," and you're seeing me mostly comment negative things in their ISO. What you're not seeing is me making a long case on either, going, "this person is 90% wolf, I'm going to actively engage people to try to push this vote." Because that weight is not really there. They're not that level of reads. Just because they're my bottom reads doesn't mean I'm sure they're wolves, it just means I'm the most sure of anyone else in this game, which doesn't mean a ton.

Trust me, when I get a lock wolfread, you'll know it. In the meantime, it's D1, I have some town, and I'm pretty content to lynch anyone who's Not Town. I don't need to lynch someone I'm sure is a wolf, that's just not super important to me early in the game.

I think you should read the tom section again. There are quite a few things I took issue with. The point of the town markers coming after I formed the initial read was that it meant the initial read was based off weak tonal shit that I really shouldn't have given much weight to.

It's not the fact that tom is feeling low content, it's the fact that he's low content relative the to the amount he's posting. Like I said - not damning in and of itself, and probably never will be D1, but critical mass is a thing.

I think the way you're approaching meta, when combined with the "using Jan/fonti to read me" thing above, feels a little out of whack. Like... you can't just lock it in. People are wrong sometimes. Meta clears work >rand, and sometimes with a player like Vaimes you can be nearly certain, but like. Jan has misread me before, plenty of times. I've misread him. Fonti's misread me, I've misread her. I've misread tom, and he's definitely misread me. I think, probably, if you looked at the long term trendlines you'd see those reads getting better on average, or maybe at least taking a shorter amount of time to "get there", but it's like baseball. Overall trends definitely play out over time, but in the context of any one individual game, the fact that someone's BA is .333 doesn't mean they're at all likely to go 1 for 3.

It's not the fact that he had that thought, it's the fact that he mentioned it in that way. It smacks of lampshading.

Where do you see tom "going" this game? Not a trap question, genuinely curious.

You answered your own question:

It's not that he would struggle to make them as mafia, it's that I think they would come out differently. In particular, the one to Jarizok, that's just like... a very loaded agenda-y post if Jan is a wolf, yeah? Like either Jarizok is town or Jariozk is his partner, and Jan is Doing Something. Distancing, shading a mislynch, making it look like he's doing one while doing the other, etc. It's really just as simple as "i've seen Jan make posts like this as mafia and I've been able to pick up on the agenda, and I'm not seeing it here."

The "Mal lumping Cobalt is meaningless because Mal would know most people wouldn't want to Lump Cobalt" I just... idk, I liked it because of the degree it was getting into Mal's head. There's no particular reason it would be a hard post to make as a wolf, I just don't super think Jan thinks to even make it in the first place, if that makes sense.

I didn't read much of Princess mafia, and I don't like bringing these kinds of things into prolonged discussions. Some degree of OOG is inevitable yes but I'd rather just bring it up, state the read, and move on.

I somewhat agree with you, FWIW, and that was the basis of the Jan-Sotek comment I made.

My point about 413 wasn't that it was wrong, it was that it was the kind of meta take that's just impossible to really gauge because it's both very general and very specific at the same time. Saying someone's meta has an alignment indicative "catch-up/gif/content ratio" is just... super safe. It's holistic enough that you can't really argue with it. It's basically a dressed-up toneread but it /looks/ specific and solevy and that's the issue I have with it, that it's a read that's designed to look like more than it is.

Cool, let's lynch Jarizok then :thumbs

It's more like 25-30% higher than my baseline confidence in any given D1 fonti read, which is pretty low to begin with. Like yeah sure fonti has a ~75% chance to be town in any given game, but I only have usually about a 40-50% confidence that I'm reading her correctly.

 

Yeah that is it.

Those are the roles, yes. I knew I forgot talking abut something that is obvious to us but not everyone.

 

Lump shadow

 

I’m willing to ease up on my read of you if you also think Waco is scum and are willing to vote him with me.
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Ew can we not lynch Jarizok? It just seems way too easy.