@Vaimes what's your assessment of fontisian here?

 

Actually I think my reads are pretty much linear now with solid anchors for both ends, so

jan/Newcomb
Cobalt/vaimes
Gemma/waco/fonti
Stan/jari/dc/asmo
Shadow
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Definitely would like to sort through those oranges and green a bit more but kinda feel like that's enough for now.

The Oracle should be outing tomorrow, yeah? They know jari's alignment now and should know stan's tonight.
Then this seems eminently solvable

 

I mean, you would know better than I would. People were pretty locked on Jari/shadow as lynch/lump of either combination, yes. I thought bussing wasn't really a thing in flipless though? And with Stanari especially because she hates scum.

Her case being pretty much a carbon copy of Newcomb's stuff on shadow could be a thing I guess? I don't know I'll go over it again.

Also Newcomb Stanari is like, always flailing, no? It's kind of a constant state of being for her. She's like me in that regard.

 

I don't think so; soup is the rubber band feature here for witches. Maybe they claim if we're wildly off track or something, but auto claiming D3 seems bad.

 

Mmm, I'm going to try to kill Mal tomorrow, most like. Oracle can claim if they have reason to believe that's bad?
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*Claim tomorrow, obviously.

 

I mean if two dead there's only one chance at soup and so I think that would be worth it.

I guess not if we've only gotten shadow.

Maybe even straight up "if no claim jari/Stan were both town" but then we have to worry about Stan or whoever dies tonight being Oracle...

So... Oracle's discretion i suppose...

I just want info man

 

(For example, if Asmo is the Oracle.)

 

Can't really fight you on that given the lack of anything from the slot.

Also it's not like I'll here to stop you :v

Asmo is either gonna do something or not; would hope that happens today so I can get a crack at maybe reading him right but eh.

 

I'm going to try and make DC the other wagon but will be hoping asmo gets lynched first.

 

I feel you, just want to really emphasize how nasty PoE can be for rolereads from the witch side.

 

I'm deliberately not weighing in on this because anticlaim tilts me but I'm going to make a single exception so I don't explode:

The last two games I was in with soup/oblit, scum won using soup/oblit on like three people. Oracle should honestly probably hold off unless they can nail the last scum or we're about to mislynch at XYLO and their info will stop it.

PREVIEW EDIT: Yeah, what Newcomb said. You run into this problem where Oracle claims, and scum can soup not only Oracle but someone else they read as "either X or Oracle", then someone else they read as "either X, Y, or Oracle", and so on. Add in that additional roles might come out depending (e.g. mislynch on Leeroy) and the scum inforole that hands out NK info might still be alive, and it tightens up pretty fast.

 

I think asmo (and possibly others as a "consensus POE" shakes out) should activate today if Leroy.

Not sure where to draw that line, but asmo definitely should.

 

What? No, you only activate Leeroy under direct threat of lynch. This is because there's broadly speaking three possible outcomes for Leeroy:
- Threatened with lynch, activates to bring down someone else
- Nightkilled
- Makes it to f3/f4

1 is actually the WORST case, since 2 means a more important role didn't die and 3 is fantastic (Leeroy isn't lynchable in this scenario, so it effectively confirms a townie if claimed on the last night which is stupid powerful)

 

In the case of asmo, it's either claim it tomorrow instead of getting lynched or use it now to prevent last gasp.
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Like, we can all see the future here. Asmo has a claim or is getting lynched tomorrow.
Yeah?

 

I'm pretty sure preventing last gasp is inferior to getting what amounts to an extra lynch tomorrow.
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I mean shit, we can leave today's lynch to Judge to do the same thing.

...huh, actually, we know Jari wasn't Judge (should have claimed it) and Jan wasn't Judge, so if we leave it to Judge then it either works or we have Stanari as town (and know Judge is missing for the future).

OTOH scum also find out Stanari was Judge and we don't get to kill shadow today, so that's still pretty bad. Is it worth risking it to deny Last Gasp, though?

 

3 minutes to eod:
Lynch
Shadow (4): Gemma (#715), Stanari (#931), Jarizok (#1332), dC (#1368)
Jarizok (7): Fontisian (#1133), Vaimes (#1183), Jan (#1185), Newcomb (#1259), Shadow (#1389), Asmo, Waco
Waco (1): Cobalt (#945)
dC (1): Tom (#1106)


Lump
Shadow (5): Fontisian (#1133), Jan (#1153), Waco (#1267), Asmo, Newcomb
Jarizok (4): Jarizok (#413), Gemma (#1030), dC (#1141), Stanari (#1156)
Newcomb (2):, Shadow (#922), Cobalt (#945)
Tom (2): Tom (#17), Vaimes,
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Jarizok lump and shadow lynch wagons are identical.
Think there one in there at most if jarizoktown.
Gemma Stanari dC

And if jarizok was scum lolwagonomics / nothing matters
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So I guess that's where my readslist could have been nonlinear.
Jarizok/shadow w/w worlds is just.
Like lol whatever just lynch speedlynch scummy people

 

I'd like to give Asmo an actual chance to do something villagery.
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And yeah, ideal use of Leeroy is a late game (F3/F4) claim and fire.

Activating toDay to prevent Last Gasp is a pretty worthless use of it.

Like, if shadow is the Demon, his info's not worth much anymore anyway, and getting one use off it toNight doesn't super matter. Preventing a Necromancer/Occultist last gasp would be nice, but still really not worth both a) making the role PoE even tighter for witches and b) losing the Sword of Damocles threat that an unclaimed LC is to witches.

 

Looking at Shadow & the Delphine/Stanari slot, This was Delphine responding to a question from dC (click through to see the question), about Shadow.

 

No, jesus.

It means shadow gets to burn his soup and take a shot beyond souping me, for free.

Just like... there will be plenty of mechanics down the line. Treating this game as a mechanics exercise on day fucking two is pretty bad.

You have Jan and I as confirmed town, you have shadow as confirmed mafia. There is more than enough information in the thread to keep the game flowing and moving. Stop looking for oddball mechanical angles to get us some kind of dubious benefit, and start looking for wolves.

 

Delphine also had this flurry of posts where she discussed Silver (pretty much all pre-Newcomb entrance) (click through for context)

From what I remember of Delphine, that seems like a lot of times to bring up a partner slot that'd hardly posted, so thinking non-aligned, but if someone who has better meta on Delphine wants to talk about it