Not harder for *me*, harder to *win*. It eliminates any cushion we might've had for a mislynch and doesn't really gain us anything this phase.

 

Eliminating a cushion and eliminating a mislynch seems... offsetting at best

 

Lol are you being deliberately obtuse or just not accounting for soup?

 

...
I fucking hate my life.
oh wait asmo could just be fake softing okay we're all good

okay so look assuming we mislynch today:
- if I hadn't claimed
Mislynch, 5-2 or 6-1
Newsoup, 4-2 or 5-1
Mislynch me, 3-2 or 4-1
Kill, parity or 3-1
Game proceeds at f4, maybe

- as-is:
Mislynch, 5-2 or 6-1
Doublesoup, 3-2 or 4-1
Game proceeds at f5

Like, I think we actually GAIN room by avoiding my mislynch here.

 

Yes!

 

Even if we assume asmo is town and soupable scenario 1 still lost on a mislynch today because there's zero chance me claiming Judge at 3-2 would work.
--- Post automerged ---
(Like, unless I could successfully get a no lynch today WITHOUT outing myself which no fucking chance)
--- Post automerged ---
I mean granted my gamestate analysis is assuming I get mislynched unless I successfully claim Judge, but if anyone wants to claim that WOULDN'T happen then please be my guest.

 

I think you did your math wrong.

If we assume 2 wolves and soupable Asmo, game ends tonight if mislynch+triplesoup.
If we assume 2 wolves and non-soupable Asmo, game continues tomorrow at 3-2 if mislynch+doublesoup.

If you hadn't claimed:

If we assume 2 wolves and soupable Asmo, game continues tomorrow at 3-2 if mislynch + doublesoup.
If we assume 2 wolves and non-soupable Asmo, game continues tomorrow at 4-2 if mislynch + newsoup.

If there's only 1 wolf left then none of this matters and your claim is acceptable, but I somehow doubt there's 1 left.
--- Post automerged ---
Either way, what's done is done and what's said is said. No point in beating ourselves up over it.

 

I think it probably would have been between [you/waco/maybe vaimes] tomorrow after an asmo lynch

 

My math assumes I'm being mislynched tomorrow. Like, the only way me getting souped is actually an extra kill is if I could have survived to endgame without being souped which I really don't think is true.

also this math hilariously means that the ONLY mislynch we can afford is in fact you. So killing you today is essentially free at this point.

You're forgetting I "scumslipped"

Oh, also I'm forgetting I judgeslipped >_>

 

I know I stated it factually and as it turns out it was a slip sorta, but I was not gonna be super serious about that

 

Well a) I didn't know that and I only had a small window of opportunity to offset it if you were, and b) Cobalt sounded like he was

also c) I'm a giant idiot

 

Dude you're *not* shooting me today. That's a complete waste of a day and a lynch.
It's now a 50/50 in Vaimes/Cobalt/Gemma/Waco. That's just base odds, discounting any ability to make reads. We *have* to hit scum tonight for this to be worth anything at all. Killing me just to avoid a potential loss to soup if we mislynch someone else makes no sense.
--- Post automerged ---
Does anyone have any Gemma meta info about towngames that match this one in *ahem* sensitivity?

 

Alright well just throwing it out there but I think fonti was Newcomb's acolyte and scum don't know stan's role and jari didnt claim so you're probably just judge.

I don't feel too terrible about soup because of jari/Stan. Sure everyone knows jan/newc/DC and scum presumably knows fonti but I think everyone else is pretty much under wraps afaict.

If asmo has a claim too (and it's true) that messes up the soup math but it gives us such a good chance at hitting scum I'm ok with it.

 

I mean it makes no sense to you because you either know you're town or you're scum pretending to know you're town. To everyone else in the game, you're either mislynch fodder or scum that we need to get rid of and we have literally no way of figuring out which because you've been so inactive all game short of scum deciding to have mercy on Newcomb for another night.

Like.

You're basically just asking me to townfirm you for no reason, because if you're not locktown or at least LIKELY town then we can't afford to let you live and maybe win the game for scum when we have the option to just kill you for free.

Killing you isn't wasting a day because NOT killing you if you're soupable town also loses a day (scum get parity a day early), NOT killing you if you're mislynchable town also loses a day (you're just mislynched on a future day) and NOT killing you if you're scum obviously loses a day (you're scum)

Killing you is only bad if you're not soupable and not mislynchable. The former is possible, but I need you to actually step up and demonstrate the latter.
--- Post automerged ---

I mean asmo was already only supposed to claim "Leeroy" or possibly "two scum alive Oracle" so shrug. Former is self-resolving and latter as you say provides a really high chance of a hit.

But yeah I did sort of panic, I spent like ten minutes trying to think up a response that wouldn't look like scum trying to cover up and couldn't and then Cobalt replied to it and at that point I realized that scum could probably soup me anyway so meh.

 

Would be ok no lynching and letting dC judge the target. We get a free witch if he’s lying, so, doubt he’s faking it.

Not so sure it’s Asmo anymore. Maybe it’s just Waco/Vaimes.

 

Because of his wim and solving?

 

Maybe he’s just flailing cuz he doesn’t wanna die

But he’s projecting so much concern that we can lose if he gets lynched that I’m not quite sure he’s faking it

 

Hum.

1 or 2 witches in these names:

Asmo, Waco, Vaimes, Cobalt, dC, Gemma

Reasons why each one is town:

dC: Claim, tone matches town game, kept up his shtick after somewhat falling into the PoE

Waco: Fight with Shadow, felt good early-mid D1

Vaimes: Me/Jan/fonti confirmed town and didn't push on him D1.

Cobalt: Tone, pushing on people he'd be unlikely to push as a witch, pretty even-keeled "drive to solve"

Asmo: Gut townread on Mal early D1, decent tone, going about this softclaim stuff in a way that would be pretty ??? for town.

Gemma: Meta-cleared by fonti/Jan.


Which of those reasons is most bullshit?

I'd say on a quick "passing the smell test" level, Waco or Asmo.

Cobalt and Vaimes probably need a real look - pretty sure they're never partners here, as in that world they were both being heavily townread and Cobalt decided to start shading his budding on D3 for pretty much no reason.

I feel like there was something else I was reading Gemma town for but I can't remember it. Might go back and try to dig that up.

If dC and Asmo are both town here I think Waco pretty much just has to be mafia? Like, there was that Owner's Market stuff that niggled me early, there's the fact that he's started drifting towards single-focus issues instead of broad solving, or at least multiple angles of single stuff, which is his scum meta to a T.

Plus literally the only other thing it would be if Waco's somehow town would be Gemma and one of Vaimes/Cobalt and.... meh? I'd be pretty surprised.
--- Post automerged ---
Kinda beat from the trip I took yesterday and today and I'm gonna call it an early one. I feel like I'm just not super thinking very well right now.

 

I have a specific concern that Vaimes managed to push for his town D1 as scum but then couldn't keep it up (esp. after last game, knowing people would be looking out for him)

Also seriously how long is it to dayend

 

22 hrs

Sent from my LG-H918 using Tapatalk