I actually would be totally okay no lynching and letting dC choose between [ Asmo, Waco, Vaimes ] at his own will.

Gemma and I are technically still in the PoE but I mean I'm pretty damn town and Gemma is because reasons.
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I AM getting odd feels wrt Gemma that's reminiscent of Vira in the last WH I played where she, Vaimes and I were F3.

 

I wanna be warned way in advance if people want do this so I can really drill it down

Like, I'm not going to stop paying attention to the game but my play is going to be different for "picking a target based on majority vote" vs. "picking a target myself" and I'm probably going to want to float ideas etc. a lot more in the latter case.

Actually, in the meantime:
- What are these "odd feels" you refer to?
- If you ignore Vaimes's D1 entirely, how would you read him?
- Can you reread Asmodeus's ISO (it's super short) backwards (i.e. last post first) and tell me if anything jumps out?
- Do you think Waco/shadow is a reasonable anti-align?

 

So the possible outcomes of no lynching are:
DC is judge, tries to kill a witch
DC isn't judge, judge kills him
Judge is dead, nothing happens and DC gets to drink soup before we lynch him tomorrow

Only the last one is bad, and requires exactly fonti or Stan to be judge, and witches don't know stan's role.
And even that is starting soup with 8 alive, which seems a tough ask.

 

@The Waco Kid

1. Irrelevant, as you said.

2. Most of my read revolves around your feel-bads from D1 especially your halfhearted Lump campaign and how some posts were made almost as if to dare people to Lump you in a not towny way. Further than that, I think the way you pushed Shadow early on COULD'VE been distancing if he was going to flip or get lumped on D1 once he had enough suspicion towards him.

That being said, I just went through your ISO and some things are sticking out at me in BOTH directions. For one, I thought your push on Shadow D1 was w/v and not the other way around, and looking back it COULD be w/w especially given some interactions between you and referring to the Asmo slot subtly in a way that you can try and get people to townread it, but I'm honestly not sure what to make of it.

And I think that your Lump campaign is feeling... less fake as I read it with the knowledge that Shadow is a witch maybe?

Except towards EoD 1 you make a lot of posts that just look like you're asking questions to look townier and not like they have any ACTUAL natural inquisition behind them. It's super odd in an I don't know how to feel about it way.

Also, you were the first to take advantage of Newcomb's Jarizok/Shadow vote swap to tip the lump in Shadow's favor and the lynch away from him, immediately making it viable and a potential gamestall so that at least your partner didn't die on D1, but you left your lynch vote ALSO on Shadow for long enough to make it look like you weren't pushing Jarizok (who is likely town).

Actually, looking back, Shadow had the lead in votes until Asmodeus swapped off of him, Newcomb followed and then, when the shadow wagon was 5-4 with Jarizok you were able to make the definitive switch that locked Jarizok in as the lynch vote towards EoD.

That being said, you SEVERELY dropped off in D2, enough to be really concerned that it's just demotivated witch.

And actually, I'm thinking it's less likely that you're w/w with Asmo based on your early posts D2 once Shadow was revealed as a witch in which you pushed a Shadow/Asmo w/w world.

And literally everything else in your ISO after that seems like intentionally trying to spew yourself derpclear, and surface-level participation to see if any of your weak pushes can get traction.

I actually think Asmo is town and you're a witch after this.
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The odd feels I'm referring to w/r/t Gemma is how Vira was hard-pocketing basically everyone and the most experienced players thought she was town, and it wasn't until we were in a MYLO situation and we were forced to get rid of her vest to go to F3 that Vaimes and I stopped tinfoiling each other long enough to realize she was playing us.

I could see Gemma ending up in that situation as a witch here after a carefully crafted Font / Jan pocket and a forced AtE, but I just think that's so UNLIKELY at this point. It's possible, but it'd be masterful play that I (sorry) don't really see Gemma as capable of given the way the days played out.

I'd read him a LOT more witch if I ignored D1 entirely.

I'll go through Asmo's ISO in a bit.

- w/r/t Waco no I think Waco / Asmo is a more reasonable anti-align than Waco/Shadow.

Actually, dC, I'd encourage you to judge Waco here but I want to know what Newcomb thinks about my recent posts before making any unilateral decisions for you.
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This post also feels super waffly for a lot of reasons.

If Waco is a witch and he has a partner within those four names he discussed I think it is EXACTLY Vaimes for the way he gives his Vaimes read.

He pushes Asmo in the weird unaligned way I read his early D2 where he suggested Asmo as Shadow's partner because of a weird not-quite-TMI by Shadow that I don't think holds any water. And I think he's trying to test the waters for that read again here because he seems like he's fishing.

He says there's a post where Vaimes lightly defends shadow, but then makes another read based on meta of Vaimes and then says the read is pretty light.

Basically, it looks like he builds paranoia on Gemma, sees Asmo as a potential witch, very lightly shades me and makes a read on Vaimes that just looks like he needed to make a read on Vaimes and not like he believes any of what he's saying.

Does this all make any sense?

@dichotomousCreator @Newcomb @tom I'd like all your input on my recent posts please.

 

Yeah think that's pretty important especially when his whole identity is "unaligned with shadow" and he's been skating ever since.

 

And another thing is

When being pressured to claim, why wouldn't witch!Asmo just make a safe claim based off of Jari / Fonti info, or make a claim that he knows will get countered to make it easier to make a bigger soup after dC's claim?

like, Asmo just looks so GENUINELY WORRIED that it threw me for a loop and I think he's town now.

 

Also I don't want to talk about townasmo before he does something remotely townie.

 

I think that was Waco's angle from the beginning. Once Shadow got enough suspicion that Waco felt like he was definitely going to be resolved by town, he sets up a situation in which he can push himself or be pushed as an unaligned pair. It's like bussing, but not, because he voted to save Shadow and delay the cycle slightly by making him be checked instead. So he didn't fully bus but did enough to look townier for it and it's unraveling now to look the opposite.
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I think he already has though wrt his response to claim pressure.
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Lynch: Waco

Committing to this. My gut feels it.

I think Waco / Vaimes works. I still haven't dug deep into Vaimes' ISO but I can feel it in my soullll.
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If we're actually gonna no lynch and let dC do it I'll swap

but that's where I'm at for now.

 

I think his response to claim pressure as you call it was very much just his opinion on the setup in general and I see no signs he adapted it to this particular game

 

I disagree. I think his general reaction was genuine concern/fear, and the number crunching he did after was just to make sure that concern was justified.

 

I'll respond properly in a bit (we have actual time and I got other stuff going on RN) but I wanna chuck in that I'm not willing to pardon Vaimes purely on the strength of his D1.

 

Here's what I propose:

We no lynch and have dC judge Waco.

The only way this doesn't resolve dC's claim is if Waco is exactly Leeroy and triggers on Asmo, but I find that extremely, extremely, EXTREMELY unlikely.
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That's what I just said.

I find him MUCH more witchy if you ignore his D1.

I think he's even more likely a partner for either Asmo OR Waco based on recent posting.

I think Vaimes is a witch.
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Anyway that's my work for the night. I'm going to bed.

Looking forward to hearing back from others wrt my Waco thoughts.

 

(additionally, I can buy asmodeus as fearmongering but if he actually starts SAYING stuff rather than just doing that then I might be more inclined to reevaluate that)
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EBWOP: Oh okay I thought you were saying you weren't ignoring his D1 :v

 

Gemma
Newcomb
tom

dC

Cobalt
Vaimes

Waco

Asmodeus

Townreading Cobalt for tone + being meta cleared + Newcomb stuff / read progressions overall + unaligned with shadow.

Vaimes for day 1 + Jan hard clearing him + Newcomb townreading him + unaligned with shadow + meta stuff from Regfan.

Waco for being unaligned with shadow.

Think that probably means I should just throw out the unaligned reads?

Waco slightly less likely to be scum with dC/Waco not being a thing. I don't have anything ruling him out from any teams in Vaimes/Cobalt/Asmo.

Cobalt/Vaimes probably not a thing because of Cobalt's ~spicy~ read there but that's not something I'd bet the game on.

I don't know if there are any other teams that I can rule out?

I should probably do some deeper rereads before EoD but aside from liking Asmo's thread presence I don't feel like there's anything I might be horribly wrong on.

 

Also, while I'm asleep, don't let Vaimes try to push me now that he realizes I'm serious and not tinfoiling.

There is no universe in which witch!Cobalt squares right the fuck up against town!Font and town!Newcomb on D1.

Ever.

 

Ok so I talked about this a fair amount day 2 but ima do it again now that I'm confirmed:

Shadow as scum is a floater. He's a really good floater (at least in longer phases) but the simple fact is that his strategy is just to live forever.
So, like a planned hellbus between him and waco doesn't seem like it would be his idea, but he's definitely capable of it once it's enacted.
And honestly I can't say that his treatment of waco doesn't look like what that would look like.

I said day 1 I didn't think he'd let himself get bogged down like that, and I guess a planned thing might have forced it?

It's becoming more and more viable that that's just... exactly what happened.

 

@Gemma consider Asmo town.

You are literally left only with Waco/Vaimes.

Start re-reading Vaimes.

 

Hey Gemma, could you go read Vaimes ignoring his D1 as a thought exercise?

 

I want to push the like button.

Maybe I'll stick around for a bit if Gemma is here and posting.
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Like, Gemma is still ~technically~ in my PoE

but her being a witch involves such a masterful level of play that at this point I'm approaching willing-to-lose-to-it read level. That haunts me because Newcomb in TH5 and everyone being willing to lose to Vira before we figured her out in WH(8? 9?) but I really think Gemma is just town.

 

Kinda glad I didn't post that case now or I would probably be feeling even worse than I am.

Re: Asmo yeah would be really super if he actually talked about reads at all.

 

@Asmodeus

Talk to me about a Waco / Vaimes world and why it makes perfect sense.