I was thinking about that too but I don't think it's very good reasoning at the same time? I think if he was at soft lynch and we were closer to the end of the day then it would be a much stronger argument but we're about half-way through the phase and he's not been under /that/ much pressure.

Also I'm just going to feel incredibly stupid if he's a wolf and fonti was telling us to kill him and we end up backing off just because he felt genuine.

 

Honestly I wanted you to post it so I could see if scum started picking it up to mislynch me.

 

He will die for sure if Waco is not a wolf.

He is 100% PoE and must be resolved before the end of the game.

If Waco/Vaimes isn't the team I'd be willing to go Waco>Asmo>Vaimes and do Vaimes last.
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I wanted to pick up that case :/

Rip
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I was actually looking for reasons to scumread dC prior to claim because I was so fucking null it was infuriating.
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Also, Oracle should always out tomorrow if 1 witch left, right?

Or Graverobber, if Waco was a hit.

Either way determining there's 1 witch remaining as public info would be super helpful.

If Waco is a witch, Asmo most likely is not. Vaimes is my third partner in EITHER world.
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K, maybe sleeping now

 

@Cobalt how does this post read to you?

Because Vaimes taking stances and putting out reads like this is beyond anything I saw him do in Princess mafia; he took like 10 stances in the entire game there. I talked with Regfan post-game and that was pretty much what he stressed to me wrt Vaimes as scum. I don't really have experience reading him but he's been taking a bunch of stances this game and sticking to them fairly hard I think? That's more or less what I'm townreading from him outside sheeping Jan/Newcomb and his activity on day 1.

 

It looks too much like he wants to clear Waco.
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We need to take that post with the fact that Waco/Asmo/Vaimes are the witch PoE and look at those SPECIFIC interactions and reads, not his stance reliability as a whole.
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And he also tries to push an Asmo/dC world which is why I’m super glad dC claimed.
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Basically where I’m at is

I think Vaimes is a witch in either an Asmo or a Waco world. Given that, he’s technically my strongest witch read (my thoughts on Waco aside) and as such if I look at his posts from the lens of a witch, Waco looks like his most likely partner.

Like, I have no alternatives other than to tinfoil you and I refuse to do that.

Nobody else is in PoE. Tom is clear. dC is judge. It is only Gemma/Asmo/Waco/Vaimes for me and I think you’re town. With the last three being my only PoE and my aforementioned thoughts I think Waco/Vaimes exactly solves the game, and if not then just a tad bit more odd Asmo/Vaimes.

I literally have nowhere else to go.
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Like sure his stances are reliable but his stances are also pretty subtly insistent that another member of the PoE is a villager

And since there’s 2 witches out of those 3 this is exactly a w/w interaction
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I’m rambling and I’m TIRED.

 

I'd be relishing the idea of mislynching him, obviously.

I doubt I'd be townreading him at all, probably actively pushing on him and trying to get content from him the way I do with Creature when I'm not townreading him. Would probably leave him for an f5/f3 type situation ultimately since I think he's the type of player who becomes increasingly obvious one way or the other as the game goes on.
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Eh, I used to do that type of play as well but am just not very interested in it anymore. I think you end up getting more false positives from that type of thing than not tbh.

 

Cobalt I think all of that makes a fair amount of sense.

I was pretty solidly on an asmo/DC thing, I may have said they weren't actively aligned but those two DC posts about thugs activity level really stuck in my mind.

But if not DC, I'm not fully sure who asmo fits with.

His complete refusal to take any relevant stances or give insight into his process still makes me just want to kill him, but this is probably the first time I've seriously considered him being town and it's not, like, immediately impossible I guess.
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Well that hasn't happened...

 

Like, for me there’s 4 names and I don’t wanna worldbuild with Gemma so there’s 3 names

So I think Waco/Vaimes makes more sense than Asmo/anyone because it’s not Asmo/Gemma and Asmo/Vaimes is the only less likely alternative to Waco/Vaimes
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dC was exactly the claim we needed to PoE this without being in too much soupdanger.
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Because Asmo/dC was a SUPER relevant concern of mine and others.

 

Think it should be a no lynch > judge here?

Just having DC prove it is pretty good and should put us at a near lock?
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Also I wanna say shadow/stan/asmo is still possible but I'm not gonna make a big deal about it.

Stan does look less likely now than she did d1 but she was still pretty scummy while alive

 

okay well it's good to hear it wasn't a completely stupid claim :V

I hadn't quite considered exactly the dC/asmo angle but I had this general sense that me needing resolving was much worse than me being souped.

I'm also gonna come clean and say my second thought after the obvious "kill asmo" option was "yolo Vaimes". Like, I feel like his D2/D3 have been highly disjoint from his D1 AND in line with the other scumgames I've played with him? He could just be scum with asmo, of course, but I kind of have the urge to kill him first.

OTOH the way asmo is playing is very "letting scum get away with this would piss me off" (specifically, alarmist magic bagging) so I really don't know. I want them both to actually DO things before I decide but they both seem to be obstinately refusing to.

(Unrelated: I think Cobalt is right that anyone who can prove there's only one scum remaining should do so by claiming tomorrow. Angels turn off after a lynch at f5 anyway so the main concern is if someone other than the claimant is also soupable, but that's not even an issue if you hit the last scum with the information that only one remains)

 

I can see Vaimes/Waco being w/w from that, yes. That isn't a world that I've looked at at all so I might do that later tonight.

I think there's a chance that Asmo is town, I just don't think the reasoning for that is very good and I feel alright with my reasoning for Vaimes being town. It probably doesn't make a huge difference? Like if we kill Asmo and he's town then I'm bad and Waco/Vaimes is the team, and if we kill Waco and he's town then we're both bad and Asmo/Vaimes is the team.
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I mean, you/Asmo was my strongest team and if Asmo was town I was pretty locked on you being scum so yeah it's pretty helpful. I just feel bad that I couldn't get There on you especially after Princess mafia where I felt like I really clicked with you and was super looking forward to playing with you again.
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This game is starting to remind me of the hydra game I just came out of where Creature was like, pretty widely scumread but I kept insisting that we give him more time to make himself obvious because I knew if he made it to f5 and he was mafia he would just collapse. He was town though and he got mislynched for the win because my slot died and no one except me knew his meta. God that was painful to watch.

Pretty different gamestate here though and I don't actually know how to read Vaimes so not quite the same.

 

also like that Vaimes post where he was all

"enters thread

sees bored people

leaves thread again"

kinda reads like

"this is why I'm not posting! It's not because I'm scum, honest"

(plus shouldn't he have come back and said something about the current gamestate by now? idk his timezone tho)

 

Don't think there's anything ruling out Vaimes/Asmo. The only mentions in mal's ISO are when he says he doesn't want to lump Vaimes because he's lazy, and when he says he likes him because he's participating and being nice to him. Asmodeus townreads him but also gets into a wierd tiff about a joke Vaimes makes which doesn't feel like he's interacting with a townread? I don't think I'm going to get any unalignments from Asmo's ISO. There's not really anything indicative from Vaimes' end either.
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He's in Russia I think. Is midday there right now. And um, I think you're confirm biasing tbqh? I think that would probably be more indicative if he hadn't been around at all / posting after that. Would probably let Newcomb give you an actual answer to that though.

 

Uh.

Wasn't that his last post?
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oh no never mind apparently he just neuralyzed me afterwards >_>

 

I mean if you can't even remember that he's been posting then yeah it makes sense that you might want to murder him.

 

I was gonna say, but I thought it might be confbiasing again :V

Nevertheless, this is probably a sign I should reread him.

 

Imo don't stress about it too much. Newcomb is in the game and besides maybe Regfan I don't think I would trust anyone over him when it comes to getting Vaimes right.

 

(I mean you're wrong the right answer is voxx then newcomb/jan/fonti. don't think reg even makes the list)

Regardless vaimes felt viscerally town day 1 and then dropped off forever.
It... fits the scumvaimes model. For sure.

I haven't gone back to look for myself for teambuilding but that doesn't seem to look great for him either.

I don't want to scumread vaimes. I've done it before and I don't enjoy it.
But, well, I guess I've officially conceded that he's in the poe.

 

Oh right I forgot about Voxx. Maybe I thought Reg did from the way he talked about his meta? Oh well. Regfan always a disappointment.
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(Watch everyone who hates Reg thumbs up my post.)

 

I know NK analysis is supposedly rubbish, but with an action as offbeat as "kill font instead of souping the claimed Priest" it might be worth examining if some teams that are being considered would categorically NOT do this.