0%.
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It’s literally just Shadow/Waco/Gemma and the game is over.
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Asmo aren’t you the oracle?

 

Thank you. I think so too, but you guys know him better. Tom?

 

I would never do this thing.

 

Well, not 0%. I think more like 2% because of how risky it is.

 

The Cassandra thing doesn't explicitly mean oracle BTW. DC just meant me going "BAD THINGS WILL HAPPEN" actually being true would make me the Cassandra of this story.

 

I think he'd go for it with a strong enough role read.
Hard to assign a number without knowing what that was...
Would almost have to be priestfonti and Newcomb was repping aco to her?

Think the scumnewcomb world is exactly priestfonti/acostan newc/gemma witches, I guess shadow too for the handshakey thing to work.

Percentage seems... pretty low.

 

K back home.
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Well, Stan wasn't scum. If Newcomb is town, then I don't need to keep softing, not that I could've after Cobalt outed me lols
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I'm Oracle. Checked Shadow N1, Font N2, Tom last night. There's still two witches alive.
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I softed clown heavily yesterday (was really hoping I didn't go TOO heavy with it so scum didn't realize I was faking), and Oracle a lot more softly
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I told Newcomb "I caught a clue" and softed there were two wolves at the start of yesterday. Towards the end of the day, I softed again by saying "I don't think I'm the wisest man or anything", referencing the Oracle of Delphi.

 

I don't think a townie has any need for this much information. I know you guys are townreading him, but I think it's time to reassess. tom is mafia.

Lynch Vote: tom

 

Wait there are still two??????

Wtf.
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Gemma AND Vaimes??????

 

Thought process from last night if anyone wants to see why I chose Tom (was pretty hard tbh)

Spoiler: Oracle Musings

Let's see...
dC has to die tonight. He's 100% mechanically lock-cleared and must die. Newcomb must die too, but might've psyched the wolves out of souping him two nights in a row.

Wolves need to soup here. Ideally, they would soup dC, Newcomb, Asmodeus as Judge, Priest, Clown.
Very possible that they don't risk the Clown soup. If any case, if they soup then there are no wolf actions by which my Oracle gains info.

Which leaves Town.
There are only 3 possible town roles that may target here: Grave Robber, Priest, and Clown.

If Grave Robber exists, they are targeting Waco. Therefore, Waco should never be an Oracle target here as I already know that there are were exactly two wolves before Waco's death. So if Grave Robber outs that Waco is scum, everyone already knows that there is only one wolf left, making my action useless. The only case where this is not true requires the following conditions: (1) scum out with an inno on Waco, leading people to believe there are two wolves still alive. In the world where Newcomb and dC got souped, this would leave it at 5-1, and outing would be suicide unless the grave robber is confirmed to be dead. In this case, scum will likely wait to see if grave robber claims before claiming, meaning that an early grave robber claim is likelier to be true because of the inherent risk in claiming first as scum last scum with one phase left. Oracle targeting Waco in this case only serves as a double confirmation for town that Waco was indeed town, and may be the only way I can truly trust an Inno on Waco.

Determining the priest target is then my next best option to receive info. While I had thought to telegraph this better in the day, getting caught up and missing EoD has meant that I can only hope Newcomb left crumbs as to his target. I'll have to look and revise my target accordingly if I find anything.

If Clown is alive, then Cobalt's cue to me "who should I pie tonight" went wasted when dC responded with a "yourself". Still, Clown would have to target Tom to get confirmed, as Tom is the only confirmed town.

I don't see Newcomb softing a target, meaning my real choices here are between Tom and Waco.

Then there's guardian angels.

Soup throws off Angel Reasoning, because they'd have to operate on the assumption that wolves don't soup to pick a target to block.. I guess I'll do that too to see where they'd end up

if Wolves don't soup... dC must die. Newcomb must die. Tom must die. dC takes precedence 'cause he's the most confirmed.
In the world that Wolves did not soup Newcomb because they're trying to wifom Newcombslot, then they'd shoot dC.
In the world they didn't soup him because they thought he actually handshook priest, they shoot him tonight (or Tom, if they think Tom is the real priest).
In the world where they didn't soup Newcomb because he's mafia, we all lose because the risk/reward involved in hardclaiming priest without knowing if the priest or acolyte are dead is preposterous, and I refuse to entertain that option.

I'm not going to target dC, though. It's likelier he dies to doublesoup than a regular nightkill. Which leaves Waco vs Tom


ohhh shit there's no oracle on graverobber!!! but..but.. -cries- ok
hmmm, do I reconsider dC in light of that? Hmmmmm maybe. What if Angels protect dC because he's the most clear

Fuck, ok. I have all the info. I just need to make use of it..

I could also Oracle myself as a gamble on Newcomb checking me at this point, if he's town and priest, he needs to be thinking he's going to get souped. as a result, his decision will primarily be based on what he wants to know most once he goes to the angel chat. believing that I will either be cleared or lynched tomorrow means that I'm an unlikely target

which leaves Gemma, Vaimes, Cobalt in terms of his targets... that's gambling, though

dC vs Tom..
Tom most likely to get clown throw, unless real clown.
dC most likely to get angel save because confirmed Judge.
dC also most likely to get souped, diluting the point of either an angel save or a wolf kill.

The only reason Angel save would be on dC is if they believe dC wouldn't get souped. The only reason they believe dC wouldn't get souped is if they believe Newcomb wouldn't get souped. The only reason they'd believe Newcomb wouldn't get souped is either (1) Priest check was on a different target than the one Newcomb claimed (meaning Newcomb is not real priest), or (2) they strongly believe the newcomb!wifom!nosoup theory. In case 2, Newcomb being alive tomorrow offsets my potential lynch, so I won't operate on this.

Tom, meanwhile, is alive and confirmed in every world where newcomb dies/gets souped

fuck this is hard
Clown has to pie Tom if Clown is alive, unless Tom is clown.
..fuck! ok ok ok it's gotta be Tom. it's like wayy too hedgy/gambity/gambly to Oracle anyone else.

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Yeah, if Newcomb is priest then the game is 100% locked as Gemma/Vaimes. I'm really glad they tried souping me first instead of Newcomb (might've been more sure of me or wanted to wifom Newcomb) 'cause I almost certainly would've been on you this phase. ESPECIALLY if you started posting what you posted earlier, which made me bristle at "ROLEFISHING!!!!" ahah

 

Oof.

 

Sorry, tom. I caught you. I know it sucks.

 

I... think I CC?

Am either clown or was not targeted by clown.

So if asmo got a result I'd have had to be angeled. Which seems. Pretty dumb.
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I need an adult.

 

Haha dude read my spoiler thing. It should say somewhere in there when I was getting into Angel mindset that, if they thought that witches would soup (which seemed necessary), then they'd have to be picking a target for the sake of Oracle. The only target I could think of that it'd be would be the only "confirmed person who wouldn't die to soup", which is you. That's why I picked you over other, more gambly options

 

Consider me skeptical

Everything but angel eliminated.


I guess vaimes claims too now and we'll see.
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Gemma/shadow/vaimes vs gemma/shadow/asmo

With maybe, like, newcomb/shadow/gemma on the side?
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I don't think there's a town shadow world?

At least I can't think of one.

 

LOL be skeptical. I'm just glad it worked.

If you don't believe me, though, tell me what other way info is possible? Put yourself in my shoes. Who would you have targetted? If you really think about it, you'll end up with something like mine. There were no good answers, but putting it on the one clear person who would survive a soup seemed smartest. Idk who you targeted (doesn't matter if you claim tbh 'cause Gemma can't resoup and Lynching Vaimes ends it.), but it worked so you can give me shit for it in postgame.
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And now that I think about it, Angels wouldn't put the save on you unless they had gotten the result from Priest being the same as the one Newcomb claimed here. Which confirms him as Priest.

 

And if shadow scum, jari/Stan/waco confirmed town, since asmo is either scum with gemma/shadow, or truthing.

So I think that's

Jan/fonti/DC/stanari/jari/waco
Cobalt
Newcomb
Vaimes/asmo
Shadow/gemma

 

Vote: Vaimes.

GG.
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lol Tom what are you even doing at this point

 

I mean yeah obviously it's solved from your POV you're one of the two options basically.

I'm also in the enviable position of not having to figure out the other possible world because...
That's vaimes' job.
Tbh.
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Ok it's actually

Jan/fonti/DC/stanari/jari/waco
Cobalt
Newcomb
Vaimes/asmodeus
Shadow/gemma
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Oh wait there's no Newcomb/cobalt world because it would have to be both shadow and gemma too to work.

So cobalt/me both actual hardcleared.
He should be slightly darker purple.
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Witchnewcomb world is beyond ridiculous at this point but the red "o" in there looks like a siren.

 

tom, dude, I'm not scum, pls.

Look at this cat, tom. It's so cute, just like me. How could you do anything to hurt it?