If anyone has any objections to an extension, PM me. Otherwise the DL is extended with 24h.

 

Gonna start off by approaching the game state in this manner:

Tammy
Jarizok
Jan
Cobalt

Prophylaxis r. Gemma
dichotomousCreator
fontisian
Miner
Ghouliani r. Zenzao
his fluffiness
Fable

Newcomb
Vaimes

Basically means that we have three more lynches to find the last scum, and that if we clear three people we can win the game. I'm traditionally a fan of the clear three people and win strategy for the most part, but given that I've just replaced in and have no real solid footing to begin determining alignments outside of reading past events I'm going to try and start off with a clean slate and figure this out myself.

--

First thing I notice is that Vaimes/Miner interaction (post 2 and 3) feels.. somewhat unscripted? Very light not a w/w tell. I was hoping to be able to check timestamps so I can figure out what the delay was between those two posts but that's light OoG territory so I'll shut myself up on that one. Regardless the interaction feels playful/lighthearted, certainly faceable but leaning towards not at the moment?

This.. feels like a pretty organic reaction from town!dC? Again it's fakeable as most early interactions are but coming off of where dC was at with the Champs series (he was town and got pocketed hard by Cobalt/Fable IIRC?) his mindset is pretty consistent.

Yaaay a lot of one liners and minor insults.

Chance Vaimes sneaks one of his buddies in here?

Zenzao's first post has me.. raise my eyebrows for saying that Gemma was on his radar but not voting her. Feels like reading Zenzao and comparing his meta would be pretty helpful in divining Ghouliani's alignment, especially because I had an epiphany last night about him and he's a very strong player as both alignments.

This is a pretty decent look inside his mindset though, one that I can respect.

Miner/Vaimes interactions continue to feel organic.

Newcomb enters the thread and.. makes a bunch of observations/continues with the gif posts. I am actually really interested to see how Newcomb gets caught Day 1 so I will continue reading.

So my question here is, is this Newcomb trying to go for the strong powerwolf play here or is he just going to test the waters by strongly town reading someone he knows is town? I know that when I'm scum I go for the latter play because it's safer and it establishes you in the thread without ruffling too many feathers.

So my take away here is that if Newcomb plays scum any way I do then dC is likely town, but if he's trying to go for the "play as a team/make strong plays" then I may need to reread him? dC still has that interaction with Vaimes in his favor but I haven't been reading his posts super duper closely.

Does dC!scum say that Newcomb and Vaimes are BOTH pocketing him? Pretty innovative line to take if he's scum here.

I don't know how good Zenzao is as scum but I enjoy reading his posts.

man why is Gemma such a good mafia player

this is stuff that I couldn't conjure up for days

RULE OF 3 YO

So Newcomb is trying to gun for Miner?

Chances are that he town reads his 3rd buddy because he's accepted himself as not being super power wolfy this game, and he wants to balance out the scales. ?

Done with page 5. Will take a lunch break and continue.

So far I feel pretty comfortable with Miner/probably Zenzao, dC.. need to see more from him because I all I have are a stack of WiFOM-y interactions, and fluff/fonti/Fable to look at.

 

Vote count:

Fable (1): Ghouliani,

Ghouliani (1): Fonti,

Not voting (5): Miner, Fable, Fluff, Prophylaxis, dC,

With 7 alive it takes 6 to hard lynch.

 

if Vaimes soft-cleared dC and Fable with this that'd be amazing

Also guys, should we massclaim? One scum left, clearing out any possible role interactions seems preferable to do now instead of later I think?
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When did Miner become a weeb like me?

This post is pretty hilarious to read in hindsight.

Sorry, Newcomb/Vaimes, for rolling red. I've been there and it sucks.

---

Miner (5): Newcomb, Gemma, dC, Vaimes, Fonti,

Miner is town.

Got to the end of Day 1; I see Newcomb's legacy post thing but my gut says that it's laced with wine.
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LOL VAIMES

Feelsbadman
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Okay I think I'm moderately caught up, I feel like plugging Vaimes/Newcomb through my interaction analysis chart, as imperfect as it is, wins this.

dC and Miner are probably always town here. If I find my third we win here I think?

 

Basically, yeah.

I think massclaim should be done first thing tomorrow? Should also probably be a popcorn claim type thing, just to hit our bases.

 

Was riff on fluff's signature :v

This is why I followed her around all game :v

What changed?

That's the one where each player nominates the next player to claim, right?

 

Proph. You don't know the least of it. I had these two hyenas on my back and they made me become a weeb ._.

Vira may have kickstarted the process though <_<

And in more game-related news, I kind of just want to

lynch: Fluff

And see where it goes.
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Ghoul said that fluff hasn't been opportunistic, but this felt awfully opportunistic to me.
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This is also pretty important.
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And like, I've been thinking a lot about why Cobalt was shot last night, and the best I could come up with was that either someone really was worried that Cobalt could clear himself off the Newcomb lynch towncred (he couldn't), or they wanted to pour wine into the game.

And honestly, I think that, at some point, if fluff is scum, he's setting up the wine of "Why would I kill Cobalt N3 when I could've killed Miner/fonti/Gemma etc who were more cleared plus I pushed him yada yada yada"?"

And also, another thing to consider is that fluff would one hundred percent be on board with that n1 kill on Tammy. The fact that he did spend some of his (very) few posts talking about the night kill is also interesting.
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I expect things after I wake up.
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@fontisian mostly but @ the rest of the thread too.
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Oh and this is weird since Jari was never getting lynched either way. I guess I could be wrong here? But I still don't think because there's also this:

Like what is that Cobalt read? He's clearly lynching Jan, followed by Ghoul today. And then his last mislynch would have to be in fonti, although he isn't ruling out dC even though dC is probably one of the most cleared players in the game. And obviously there's also Fable.

 

I did remind you not to forget PR hunting is a thing. My point was that whoever shot Cobalt might have thought they spotted a PR tell.

 

With two goons and a full-time watcher I find it difficult to believe that scum thought there was realistically a chance of another PR.

 

Maybe it's 4scum :V

That aside, would Watcher + weak PR + 8x VT vs. 2x goon + 1x ??? really be that unlikely?

I guess it's not that important but I dislike ruling people out for "wouldn't have killed Cobalt" for reasons like this.

 

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I'll start doing some ISOs tomorrow and hopefully come to a conclusion on things before deadline.

Feels like fluff always needs to die before f3 based on his contribution level though. Really want to sort out my thoughts on the non-Miner, non-dC players though.

dC - Read some of Gemma's posts and she was very comfortable with you, and I liked your engagement with her early Day 1. This is a thin read, but I feel like Vaimes doesn't go "stop fighting" to one of his scum buddies? I know when I'm scum and see two townies gunning at each other, I normally tell them to calm down because it gets me town points, plus I don't /know/ why they're angry at each other because I know that they are both town, so.

 

If scum had a role blocker then this would be possible but since Jari wasn't blocked this didn't happen.

Cuz like watcher is like essentially cop and if he gets a shot every night then thats an incredible amount of power that the likelihood of a second PR is just super low.

Setup gaming aside, I don't think fluff would PR hunt Cobalt last night either. Like I get that the frustration from d1 might come from a PR who doesn't want to be outted and doesn't want to be lynched either, but from what I know of Cobalt I'm pretty sure most people familiar with him would understand that it's just frustration. Plus the way he came off d2 did not scream PR to me at all.
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Also amazing movie is amazing movie. But it totally didn't make me a weeb. Totally.

 

I mean you're probably right, I was more raising it as a possibility than really going to bat and advocating for it.

 

I don't know, I would think Cobalt was mislynchable. I'm in a bad spot, and I was always going for Cobalt way before Fluff, if ever. Say I get the lynch, but I strongly urge everyone to go after Cobalt next. It makes it super easy to push him later. And if we do it the other way around, I get Cobalt first, and then I go.

He also hasn't really made that argument. One of the reasons I am pushing Fable so heavily is because Fable explicitly made all of the arguments that their wine in front of me tactic would buy them credit for. Fluff doesn't care enough about his spot to even put that idea in people's heads.

I would appreciate a leap of faith here on Fable if one is possible.

 

Im not entirely sure I buy the fluff doesn't care angle. Fluff as a player, especially if scum, doesn't super care about the game the way that Gemma or fonti might. I've never seen fluff try to bully someone as town or power wolf as scum. He mostly plays from the sidelines and only really gets engaged when his head is in the noose (which oftentimes means it's too late).

I don't really know if I support just shruglynching fable.

 

I don't even think I want to move to Fonti over Fable, though. I see it as possible, but I also see it as a much more likely dead end.

This is the one I think wins the game. There's a large difference in my view between these candidates.

 

I mean you can shrug lynch me if you want idrc, I'm not paying attention anyway.

Just means I get to laugh at people from grave.

 

Your lack of emotion makes your avatar proud.

 

Me and owner have a Kyubey and Homura hydra which is how this happened.

 

That is the weirdest Hydra ever.