I read your conversation and all I can see is :

 

Like.

It's kind of a paper mask of a villager thought, because a bog standard thing to say is "hey guys, I have this read [reasons X], but I'm not certain [reasons Y.]"

For a villager, X and Y are related somehow, most of the time. You have this gutread, but your gut has been wrong on this person. They did X which you find wolfy, but they also did Y that was villagery. In this case the "related" would just be like, comparing the two.

Nego said, essentially, "I have a negative gutread on M7 but this other player said they post less as a wolf."

Which, like.... just doesn't follow. Posting less as a wolf, when you have little or no baseline, when that's secondhand from another player. It's a complete punt, just basically tacked onto there to fill out the "X but Y" format while not actually connecting the dots.

So the organic way to do that would have been, like.... anything to do with that actual read. Something about the quality of Nego's gutreads, or the relative earliness of the game, or like six other things.

This doesn't fit.

 

I don't think withholding rote work gets me anywhere if you're scum?

The process of generating it was approximately moving around some post its and putting people I'm chunking together.

 

Yes?

 

And Newcombs thing is like .. impossible to guess.

group 1 could have anything between 1-3 (techncially 4 but i don't want to offend the town if one is in there).

group 2 is even worse because it has 2 people with less than 3 posts, which leaves the guess to basicall rng and hoping everyone else is town (which I assume is kind of what he is getting at).

 

Vaimes and Newcomb are town.

Low effort, easy reads? You betcha. Doesn't make them wrong though.

 

Honestly same.

 

What even is the playerlist uh.

 

Go away.

I am pretty sure you are not allowed back in the thread just yet.

 

Yeah I don't think the actual guesses mean much at this point, just trying to get people to think about that group of players, and who outside it might be a wolf. Group 1 for me is like, "yeah I think these people are wolfy, let's kill them, potentially a little consensus-y, might be a Mislynch De Jour in there". Group 2 is like, "ghosts + people I've had bad feelings on who other people I townread tell me are town."

Just like, throwing pasta to the wall and trying to focus down what feels like a pretty wide-open game at the moment.

 

I'm not going to write out or examine this entire thought because I would like to sleep this decade, but I had an approximately similar thought about MP7.

 

Vote: Nego
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Well clearly you need to start thinking like a villager, stanari

:v

 

@Vaimes re; Citrus

I like a lot of where Citrus's focus is and the way he's interacting and working with players. The sort of rely on other people to put forward information/stances re; Newcomb as he's identified him as harder person for him to read in 139 & 354 looks like him genuinely trying to solve. Can kind of see how his reads/thoughts are progressing between his reads posts updates in the thread; his reasoning behind his Nego read in particular is something I agree a lot with. I like his interaction with Jan in 368 and Gemma in 382. Isn't anywhere near the same level as the strength of my Newcomb read etc but there's certainly a decent amount here that points towards him probably being town.

 

I'm really not.

Three votes is also one vote more than the two vote wagon on Citrus (aka basically nothing).

 

sup Reg.

Saw Eido post a second a go.

Let's just take a second and savor the moment before we rip each other to shreds.

 

Like into a bit of detail.

bears has done little and can go either way.

tsaiah had a good start and now feels frozen (or is busy). read her town too early in her only scumgame here and can goe ither way too.

fenwicked had few posts and was weirdly focussed on vaimes. I get the reason because he only knows him, but the single focus without really resolving him feels misplaced.

Nego most likely will step up a little bit soon if he is town. (but then again anni is starting today and I think he is part of it, I think).
Could go either way.

Like .. you basically picked a lot of people who have done very little alignment indicative. Leaving it nothing but a guessing game.

 

Yeah, awesome, Newcombs seeing a lot of the same issue I am re; the Nego post.

Vote: Nego

Already very much at the Newcomb read, I'm ~kinda~ feeling the Vamies one but keep talking myself out of just going and ISO'ing him and locking it in, want to sell me on it when you get back? And for now, go away and have some time away from a computer.

 

Just saw your response and yeah .. I don't think the first group is that scummy and more .. need to do more and could go either way.

And the 2nd group has 2 players that should be readable and two players that haven't done anything (like less than anyone in group 1), which is just a very awkward pick.
I liked the way Citrus talked to me and Stanari is slightly growing on me in the last couple of hours.
But I feel like parts of her still feel very fake (which makes the rubberducky on paddingtons head so much more fitting).

 

Yeah Stanari's growing on me a bit too. Kind of mixed feelings about it; like yeah she's improving but it would suck to let her wiggle out of a pretty awkward / flat start as a wolf, since that feels like it should be a pretty reliable tell for her. Dunno.

How did Citrus talk to you that was good? Tbh I've had kind of a hard time getting into his head.
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no, it's cool guys, I didn't want to live past N1 anyway
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I hate that you both have legitimately better wolfgames than me.

Sad panda face.gif

 

I also think Newcomb is town and should be shot.