You could have outed sooner...
~~~~~
Okay, so I want to look at Tom, fluff, and dels.
I’m not keen on fluff immediately naked voting Tom, but it’s a small thing.

 

It wasn't necessary because you weren't ~being lynched~ yet.

I did my best to assert you were LHF and being pushed by scum, but it was hard to drive that home when you were consensus scummy. Not much I can really do with that.

I initially was going to let you die because I wanted an angel around for priest reasons but then remembered role kill / double killing and figured it was better to try and kill as many witches as we could as soon as we could.
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That actually points away from a Tom/Fluff coven like I was initially thinking, so it's definitely interesting.

I wouldn't put it as a hard unalign or not w/w for sure but it's meh.

 

I'm a bit confused, Cobalt. You voted Shadow, before changing your mind. You're saying you were really planning to let your green peek be lynched? Just so that we'd have an angel?

 

Hmm.

So Muz -> Jari, fonti -> manasi, Cobalt -> shadow

It's technically possible for fonti to be fake here, but that would require the exact team to be fonti/Muz/Gemma/Vaimes, and that seems exceedingly unlikely. Not a real world for me.

Muz being a witch is more possible, but still unlikely. He can't be claiming Jari's role incorrectly regardless of alignment since that would require Gemma/Vaimes AND witches being dealt all 3 musketeers, and yeah no. There's nothing really preventing him from claiming Jari's alignment wrong, mechanics-wise. No Spiritualist to act as a check, and the blocked kill was on a defensive role. Can fake Last Stand for at least a night with IK to make the numbers seem right, as long as they can win the next day. Tonally, Muz came into the game and was a little too abrasive and dickish to really seem like a witch to me, though. I think I'm gonna hold on this one being real.

Cobalt's claim is fairly consistent with his stance on shadow throughout the game. The whole "shadow is LHF but I'm not gonna go to bat for him" is.... eh, not how I'd play it, but it makes some amount of sense? I don't really think Cobalt's insane enough to yank away a mislynch when he's already getting pretty townread, so he's almost certainly with shadow if he's a witch, and I don't really see them thinking that's gonna work out long-term if it's Jari/manasi/shadow/Cobalt. Cobalt's still pretty much just not with manasi so that should hold as well.

So, most likely looking at Jari/manasi + 2.

Think Dels is worth a real look in this world - his D1 stuff on shadow/Jari has to be completely re-evaluated. He doesn't really /feel/ like he's with manasi, especially considering that big gushing post he made about her D1, but I think shadow being town puts him in line for not just writing him off anymore. Kai's villageryness is mostly tied into Jari/manasi things and not really affected by shadow's alignment so he's probably fine. Umami, Fluff, blah blah blah doesn't really change my thoughts on them.

Should go back and read EoD1 since w/v wagons instead of w/w really does change the tenor and what I'm looking for. I'll do that tonight.

 

Ah yes, the world where I swerved the lynch off of an innocent townie and onto my buddy...

 

Yeah I think worst-case world here is that it's like, Muz/Gemma/Dels/Jari and fonti's check got swapped. Low probability world, but we probably do lose that game I think. Them's the breaks if they did pull off a Haunt swap on manasi of all people.

 

This made me laugh out loud in class, not gonna lie lmfao.
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Take off your tinfoil hat, it's 95% likely to be as straightforward as we're thinking so far.

Just without Shadow being scum.

 

I think it's prudent to work through new information and not just be like, "ok well he's town, who's my next suspect?" in a game where there's no actual hard information and everything kind of depends on everything else. You do you though.

 

I mean, I'm with you on the worldbuilding Newcomb, but I'd rather flesh out the current world and hammer out an official PoE based on consensus and move forward with that while just keeping other things as possibilities in case we get through the PoE and the witches aren't all dead.
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You're being really thorough and I like that but I just don't wanna go down rabbit holes, Muz/Gemma/x etc is just like kind of ridiculous honestly.

 

I'll admit it's not super intuitive for Cobalt to be scum. But I don't think there's any reason to rule out desperation plays. If Cobalt were the final wolf together with Manasi and Shadow, what exactly would he do? We'd lynch one, hunter (maybe) the other, and it'd be literally 1v10 starting tomorrow. That town has 4 lynches left, even if they lynch fluff and tom and maybe even me or kai or whatever, that final wolf (if it's Cobalt, or anyone else) doesn't have much room to hide. So Cobalt doing this as a desperation play to try to save shadow isn't out of the question.

 

This makes a lot of sense and I don't blame you.

But if I were a witch with Shadow it would make more sense to just let him die and keep my relatively decent positioning.

 

I almost wanna side-eye Muz for saying I'm scummier if it turns out I voted a scum over a townie, but I'm aware that this new info is coming as a shock to many (including myself) and that it makes sense that people might be slightly jumbled as they do the prudent thing and reevaluate everything.

 

You'd be surprised how fast you can trim the numbers with Last Stand going for a couple nights. I assume you can make each of those kills a role kill, there would also be 3 witches dead and zero town, so it would take a couple nights to be able to get past Haunt parity. You're basically guaranteed two kills a night for at least 2 or 3 nights.

I haven't run the numbers yet but if you run with Jari witch, manasi witch and dies to Hunter shot, and we lynch a witch toDay, we don't have forever to get the last one.

 

And I'm also suspicious of this, because quite frankly my posts read as if I'm super pissed that Shadow has been revealed town and want to hold on to the nice easy reality where he was today's lynch! (Which is the truth, lol, but it means you should read my posts as defensive scum not wanting to adjust, but you're being so nice about it!)

You really have turned this entire game upside down =/
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I'm also really annoyed I didn't say this earlier, but I didn't even think it was a) necessary or b) likely but

I do want to note that Newcomb's position on me was always predicated on Shadow being a wolf

He gives me the "certainly not alligned" read with a Jari/Manasi/Shadow team, and cites my interactions where I link Jari with Shadow

I had, in the back of my mind, a thought that if Shadow were town after all, Newcomb could be setting up a position where he is able to "reevaluate" the townread on me with that new info

But he's not quite jumping on that possibility as much as I thought he might as scum. But he's maybe opening himself up to it? I just want to point this out because on the chance that Newcomb is scum, I don't want him to have this tactic available to him. But I won't jump the gun, because he hasn't actually called me scummy, just said it needs another look. Which, fair enough, it does, everything does if Cobalt is telling the truth.

 

@Dels

A Newcomb scum world is infinitesimally smaller in likelihood than a scum anyone else world.

Foregoing the night one kill completely in favor of an illusion kill is a Level 8000 play that I don't think a coven with Jarizok dead D1 in it would even attempt. They need the priest dead ASAP in that situation to try and keep their numbers up as long as possible.

 

If Shadow is town though, then MPlus's Jari vote goes from "questionable" to "there's absolutely no reason he had to do that as scum, it would've been the easiest thing in the world to stay on shadow and assume that lynch would win since it was the consensus for the entire day"

 

I'm aware that this is a different tune than what I was singing earlier this phase, but I've done a lot of thinking about it.

 

For this to be true, I'd have to somehow predict that someone was going to out an Oracle check on shadow, which... yeah.

Unless you think the team is exactly Jari/Newcomb/Cobalt/shadow and RIP manasi's bad luck.

 

Actually, not having an acolyte makes me tinfoil Font a lot more than I'd like to.

But Jari priest always claims before dying D1 so I'm not even gonna consider that rabbit hole at all.

 

I agree, if only because the rationale behind killing Newcomb would also be a desperation move, i.e. it made sense if the team was Newcomb/Jari/Shadow/Manasi and they knew they were losing and had to try something. If Shadow's actually a mislynch, the Newcomb!scumteam doesn't need to make that desperation move. But I still wanted to note Newcomb's progression on me just in case it does somehow become relevant later.
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??? It could still be true if we just lynched shadow and the undertaker told us he was town.