Well, in the world where all claims are telling the truth, they're... not? Right? So it's just one more witch. I don't really have anything to say.

 

So since there's just one more witch, am I towncleared?

Sweet.
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Is there an Umami/Manasi world where Tom was a villager?

 

You're not towncleared but I believe you just made shadow towncleared. There is technically a Umami/Manasi world where tom was a villager, yes. Nothing mechanically pushes away from Umami lying.

 

Okay.

Let me work that into my claim scenario.

 

If you're working that into your claim scenario I believe Newcomb made a post earlier about how only one of GD/UT/you can be lying, which relates to Umami lying. Don't have the time to look over it right now but it might be of interest to you.

 

There's always the chance you were acolyte, new shadow was a villager, and just came out to save shadow once manasi was red-peaked to get town cleared...in which case you would not be completely town cleared.

 

Right, yeah, I know. We've come to the conclusion that Jarizok is never not a witch based on what we've gotten, which means it's not GD that's lying.

Muz witch doesn't make sense in any worlds and I know it's not me so Umami is the only one I need to consider. Thanks for bringing that to my attention, though.

 

Yeah, there's no way muz is lying with the way fonti went out and I trust Fonti's red peak on Manasi, so mine would be the only one that could be wrong. Cobalt may be lying about not being scum, but shadow is cleared

 

I'm going to break this down into worlds and subconditions to each world from the previous one to make sense of all the options. I'll do it numbered methodically and categorically so that if we follow my plan, we keep track of which world we're in as we progress through the game.

If Umami is lying and Tom was a villager the team would be Jarizok/Manasi/Umami/x. If Umami is a villager then the team is Jarizok/Tom/Manasi/x. Either way, there's no other witch that we don't know about or haven't thought about yet. So we have two possible worlds (from my perspective, to some of you I could still be a witch) and so I'll outline the potential steps and what we learn from each step in each world.

I think World 1 is most likely and would like to perform the procedure based on that assumption, it's just Occam's Razoring things and I really think the worlds where the game is 10x more difficult than we think it is are just really really unlikely.

WORLD 1: IF ALL CLAIMS ARE TRUTHFUL SO FAR AND UMAMI IS A VILLAGER AND THE TEAM IS JARIZOK/MANASI/TOM/x:

Fanatic claims first.
1.> If Fanatic is not claimed, Manasi is the Fanatic.
2.> If Fanatic is claimed, Manasi is one of Gambler/Survivalist, or the Hunter is the last witch (or both).

Next, Gambler claims.
*If Manasi was the Fanatic:
1.a.>If Gambler is Newcomb, there is an unclaimed village Survivalist.
1.b.>If Gambler is claimed by another person, Newcomb is either exactly the villager Survivalist, or the final witch, and not necessarily Hunter.
*If Manasi was NOT Fanatic:
2.a.> If Gambler is Newcomb, Manasi is exactly the Survivalist, or the Hunter is the final witch (or both).
2.b.> If Gambler is claimed by another person (a villager), Newcomb is exactly either the villager Survivalist or the witch Hunter (and Manasi is not a protective role).
2.c.> If Gambler is not claimed, Manasi is the Gambler, and the Hunter is likely not a witch.

So then Survivalist claims.
*If Manasi was the Fanatic and the Gambler is Newcomb:
1.a.i.>The Survivalist that claims is most likely village.
1.a.ii.>The Survivalist does not claim, meaning the last witch is the Survivalist. A mass claim reveals.
(Yes, I'm aware that in this scenario a witch Survivalist claims for the towncred. This is kind of a very specific world and would be taken into consideration as it came.)
*If Manasi was the Fanatic and the Gambler is not Newcomb:
1.b.i.>Newcomb claims the Survivalist and is not counterclaimed. We have witnessed Newcomb survive a kill so he is most likely village here.
1.b.ii.>Someone else claims Survivalist and Newcomb is the last witch.***

*If Manasi was NOT Fanatic and the Gambler is Newcomb:
2.a.i.>Survivalist does not claim. Manasi was exactly the Survivalist.
2.a.ii.>Survivalist claims and is not Manasi. The Hunter is the final witch because Manasi has no way to survive a kill, we mass claim for a win.
*If Manasi was NOT Fanatic and the Gambler is not Newcomb: (this is the same as if Manasi was Fanatic and Gambler is not Newcomb)
2.b.i.>Newcomb claims the Survivalist and is not counterclaimed. We have witnessed Newcomb survive a kill so he is most likely village here. The Hunter is the last witch, we mass claim for victory.
2.b.ii>Someone else claims Survivalist and Newcomb is the last witch.***
*If Manasi was NOT Fanatic and the Gambler is Manasi:
2.c.i.>Newcomb claims Survivalist and is not counterclaimed. He is a villager. We cannot be sure whether or not the Hunter is the last witch. Hunter must claim so we can figure it out.
2.c.ii.>Someone else claims Survivalist and Newcomb is the last witch.***

***Newcomb being a witch with Manasi is not related to whether or not Manasi is the Fanatic. If two people claim Gambler and Survivalist and none of them are Newcomb, he is the last witch. If Manasi is not the Fanatic he is exactly the witch Hunter because Manasi did not have a protective role to survive the shot, so the shot wasn't genuine. If Manasi is the Fanatic, Newcomb's role is unknown but not needed.

WORLD 2: IF UMAMI IS A WITCH AND THE TEAM IS JARIZOK/MANASI/UMAMI/x:

In this world, Tom is definitely not a witch and potentially not the Inquisitor, so we'll split the options based on his role only. Newcomb is also a potential option in this world, it's unlikely but I have to touch upon it for possibility's sake.

- Tom was the Inquisitor, so all protective roles are still in claim contention.
After writing some of them out, I realized this is identical to all of the options in world 1, the only difference is that Umami is the witch instead of Tom.

- Tom was not the Inquisitor, and was potentially a protective role.

Fanatic claims.
3.>If Fanatic is not claimed, either Manasi or Tom are the Fanatic.
4.>If Fanatic is claimed, Manasi is one of Gambler/Survivalist, or the Hunter is the last witch (or both).

Next, Gambler claims.
*If Manasi is the Fanatic:
3.a.>The Gambler is claimed by Newcomb. There is an unclaimed village Survivalist.
3.b.>The Gambler is claimed by someone other than Newcomb. Newcomb is either exactly the village Survivalist or the final witch.
*If Tom is the Fanatic:
3.c.>The Gambler is claimed by Newcomb. The Survivalist is either Manasi, or a villager and the last witch is the Hunter.
3.d.>The Gambler is claimed by someone other than Newcomb. Newcomb is either exactly the village Survivalist or exactly the witch Hunter because Newcomb can't be a villager with Manasi as the Survivalist. He claims Survivalist either way.

*If someone else is the Fanatic:
4.a.>The Gambler is claimed by Newcomb. Manasi is the Survivalist, or the Hunter is the last witch.
4.b.>The Gambler is claimed by someone other than Newcomb. Newcomb is either exactly the village Survivalist or the final witch and exactly the Hunter.


So then Survivalist claims.
*If Manasi is the Fanatic and Newcomb is the Gambler:
3.a.i.>Survivalist does not claim. Either Tom or the last witch is the Survivalist but we don't know for sure whether or not Manasi is Fanatic, so we don't know this for sure. Unlikely scenario.
3.a.ii.>Survivalist claims and is likely a villager.
*If Manasi is the Fanatic and the Gambler is someone other than Newcomb:
3.b.i.>Newcomb claims Survivalist and is probably a villager.
3.b.ii.>Someone else claims Survivalist and Newcomb is the last witch.
*If Tom is the Fanatic and Newcomb is the Gambler:
3.c.i.>Survivalist does not claim. Either Manasi or the last witch is the Survivalist, but we don't know for sure whether or not Tom is Fanatic, so we don't know this for sure. Unlikely scenario.
3.c.ii.>Survivalist claims and is definitely a villager because the last witch is exactly the Hunter. Scum have no protective roles in this scenario so it is extremely unlikely and we also wouldn't know for sure whether or not Tom is Fanatic, so it's hard to say.
*If Tom is the Fanatic and the Gambler is someone other than Newcomb:
3.d.i.>Newcomb claims Survivalist and is probably a villager.
3.d.ii.>Someone else claims Survivalist and Newcomb is the last witch.
There is no scenario in which the Survivalist is not claimed in this subsection. If Newcomb is not the Gambler he is either Survivalist or someone else is.

*If Manasi and Tom are both NOT the Fanatic and Newcomb is the Gambler:
4.a.i.>The Survivalist does not claim. Either Manasi was the Survivalist, or Tom was the Survivalist, and the last witch is the Hunter.
4.a.ii.>The Survivalist claims and is not Manasi or Tom. The last witch is exactly the Hunter and we mass claim for victory.
*If Manasi and Tom are both NOT the Fanatic and the Gambler is someone other than Newcomb:
4.b.i.>Newcomb claims Survivalist and is probably a villager.
4.b.ii.>Someone else claims Survivalist and Newcomb is the last witch and also exactly the Hunter.
There is no world in which Survivalist is unclaimed because if Newcomb is not the Gambler he is either Survivalist or a witch.


IN SUMMARY:
- I think World 1 is the most likely, and would like to claim in the specified order to narrow down worlds. Newcomb could also just claim, and if someone counters him they're either a witch or he is, ezpz. But I'd prefer to do it in order so that we get Fanatic pinned down first.

- My best guess is Manasi was the Fanatic, Newcomb is one of Survivalist/Gambler and the other could potentially be a witch depending, we'd have to take it as it comes. Hunter is probably a villager.

- If any of the Musketeers fit into the PoE after these claims, I'd suggest lynching one of Vaimes/Disquieted and letting the other yeet Manasi tomorrow just for peace of mind.

- Pretty much the only reason why I wrote out world 2 is for everyone else and for peace of mind that I've explored every option, I don't think Umami is a witch and I have no reason to not trust that every claim we've had so far is true. But I think it's easiest to narrow down the witches based on roles since we're in this particular scenario, not PoEing actual people.
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Also it goes without saying that if anyone counterclaims anything at any time we've caught our final witch either in the original claim or the counter.

 

Well, you're not Yraelz, so I have to assume you're town for that effort.

 

I'll make sure to replicate that effort next time I'm a witch.

 

Oh, I didn't say this but I assume the fact that tom didn't claim before dying means he was a wolf for sure, right?

He even said he'd claim.

And as town, it's better to claim, right? To help us put together the puzzle afterwards?

The only reason not to claim is if you're a witch and you want to keep town as potentially confused as possible... right?

(Or, as town, to not help witches narrow down who the other roles are, I guess, but meh)
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Anyway I am basically waiting on standby for someone/multiple people to tell me what to do. Your plan looks good. Well, I'm not smart enough to understand it, but you sound confident! Let's see what Newcomb and anyone else with a loud voice thinks. If I'm one of those roles, I'll claim if it's what town wants. Or maybe I'm not one of those roles. But mass claim may also be a thing? We'll see.
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Man I just realized Fonti is gone =( She's the one who I'd wait to tell me what to do... Or Gemma...

 

I mean, I only explored world 2 for the benefit of everyone else and anyone who might be doubting. I was super sure that Tom was a witch based on how the rest of the Day unfolded and how strongly he pushed for Shadow's mislynch.
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I mean, I guess there's a world where Umami is the witch Undertaker and told us the truth about Tom, but that's -EV for witches so he wouldn't. A very tiny, unlikely world of Jari/Tom/Umami/Manasi.

 

Votal 3.YouAreMyDarkStar

Kai (2): Newcomb, Umami

 

@Newcomb @Disquieted @Vaimes plz review my game plan but I'd like to proceed with a Fanatic claim. Lmk if you have any objections.

 

Reviewing.

 

I mean, based on results we'd still have to PoE down most likely in some scenarios but in the cases where we find out Hunter is the last witch that's an easy win right there.

I'm mainly looking to lock Newcomb as town and pin Manasi's role.

 

I've skimmed your plan. This is coming from the unique perspective of knowing what role I am already, but while I don't really see a huge error in your logic, at the end of the chain, we're not really left with any new information.

 

It basically is a minimized and targeted mass claim because we have discovered either Manasi has one of three roles, or the Hunter is a witch. We claim the three in that order to best optimize our results.

Pretty sure in most cases we'd have a Hunter claim at the end also, even if it's not a "Hunter is definitely a witch" world

 

The parenthetical's stronger than you think, although admittedly less so with the Priest+GD out.