This weekend sucks and I’ve spent ALL of my waking hours on my feet.

I won’t be around til tonight probably and haven’t read anything in detail, but I did see Cobalt wrote like twelve walls.

 

Anyone around?

 

@his fluffiness

Me if you’re still around. I’m free for discussion.

@Vaimes

Summary: I’m the DoB and not the Oracle so Shadow is still technically in the PoE but probably town imo. Newcomb is Gambler and I want Fanatic and Survivalist to claim so that we pin down Manasi’s role and potentially expose a witch hunter.
--- Post automerged ---
@his fluffiness

Should Manasi be the correct lynch today so that the start of Last Stand confirms Muz and Umami as town?

I mean, the witch could just not kill two people, but that’s -EV for their team’s win condition.

 

From what I see, we have two options.

If we think Umami or Muz may be scum, we lynch Manasi and see if Last Stand triggers.

If we think they're both town, we hunt through the remaining people in the poe and save Manasi for last.

 

Then I’m down for the latter.
--- Post automerged ---
But I still want fanatic and survivalist claims.

 

Cobalt, I have a question.

Are you willing to mark down me, Newcomb, Disquieted and Vaimes as town?

 

All but you. Why?

 

If you don't townclear me, we have a group of 6 people that contain the final scum and LC and dob. By making those roles claim and lynching them pointed at others in the poe, we could basically guarantee a hit.

Problem is that if dob and LC are town and we miss both shots we just killed 4 town in two lynches, so maybe its not actually worth it.
--- Post automerged ---
If I am accepted as town that pool narrows to 1 witch in 5 people instead.

 

You may have missed it but I’m DoB.
--- Post automerged ---
And we don’t resolve DoB until endgame.

 

If I am accepted as town

--- Post automerged ---
Ew quote gore

 

I would be comfortable with the LC popping on Manasi today. If LC complies and game doesn’t end we go from there and narrow the POE that way.
--- Post automerged ---
I know I’m technically in PoE but if you want to show me any game ever where Scumbalt put in THAT much effort gamesolving and worldbuilding I’ll eat my hat.

I’m town but my role doesn’t get resolved until MYLO/LYLO for maximum equity.
--- Post automerged ---
LC popping Manasi also triggers last stand to confirm Umami and Muz as town, without only lynching Manasi and not narrowing the POE at all.

That’s the win/win for today I think.

 

Ok. Ignoring you/Umami/Muzjik, the last scum has to be 1 of:
shadow
Dels
Kai
m7

How do you rank those players?

 

Wait, so the real Oracle just never claimed/is scum/was tossed?

I got off work way earlier than expected so I'm gonna Digest this.
--- Post automerged ---

itt scumbalt wants to pull off a vicious win after Jarizok/Manasi bit it so early for postgame glory

 

M7 has the most wolf equity honestly, underwhelming is a major understatement. He’s playing exactly like I’d expect him to if his team got steamrolled that quickly.

Kai after that because he’s done some towny things but less so than the others in my opinion.

Dels next because a lot of the mindsets he’s emulating seem pretty genuine, I mean it could just be good witching but meh.

Shadow last because I still think he’s town, I felt strongly about him being town and low hanging fruit in the first place and that’s why I did what I did with the gambit, and it paid off by getting Tom lynched. Shadow’s reactions are exactly what I’d expect if he’s town and even his reaction to finding out I lied about the Oracle claim. If Shadow is exactly the last witch and I claimed exactly the role that witches threw out to save him, he’d have done things SO differently D2 and not allowed Tom to be lynched.
--- Post automerged ---

That would be such a GOAT moment honestly.

Saving shadow from a lynch and dunking Tom is enough of a win for me.
--- Post automerged ---
@Vaimes I determined that Oracle was about 70-80% randed witch out of the remaining unclaimed roles and decided it was the most likely throw out, before I hard claimed it in the first place.

 

Jeez what the fuck Cobalt, you broke everything.
--- Post automerged ---
I actually don't like shadow's reaction to the Oracle reveal.
--- Post automerged ---
I dunno, we can just lynch Kai or something.
--- Post automerged ---
M7 is gone again, I see.

I'm marking him for death.
--- Post automerged ---

Honestly? This is the funniest thing that has ever happened on DLP. Coven has got to be so blown.
--- Post automerged ---
I think I had all of tom/Manasi/Jarizok as townreads this game so I'm just gonna follow the wind here.

 

We just have to lynch your remaining townreads.
--- Post automerged ---
The plan is flawless.

 

I’m honestly super proud of myself but let’s win first and then talk about it. Lmao.
--- Post automerged ---

Drag him!!!
--- Post automerged ---
@his fluffiness @Vaimes @Newcomb

Can we agree that someone in the PoE LCing Manasi is the optimal play here?

We don’t lynch just Manasi and not narrow the PoE, and we don’t leave Manasi alive so we find out immediately if 3 witches are dead from the next night’s kills, which townfirms Umami and Muzjik.

And if LC doesn’t claim or doesn’t trigger we massclaim because we have our last witch.

 

As someone who I think was townfirmed pretty early and would like to live, I would like to advocate for holding off on LC. Sadly, there's nothing we can do for Muz today, but if he is good there are 2 options with who we lynch Day 3: 1) lynch of bad guy and game is solved but won't know until we kill Manasi or 2) lynch a townie and now have majority since Muz was good and was murdered by night (because 2/2 and can't effectively save him). Regardless of which option goes down, day 4 nurse can give me an extra life and majority angels can now save me so we know role and position of who we lynch day 4. Day 5 LC can go off and kill Manasi. But that will make the game potentially last longer so if you want to trigger last stand to make it go end quicker I get it
--- Post automerged ---

Today is Day 3, right?
--- Post automerged ---
Aw, screw it, let's just do LC. I'm alright with being an angel even though Citrus told me it's hella boring

 

Sweet.

Waiting for a consensus but I’m down with the LC popping Manasi.
--- Post automerged ---
The way I see it, we are at the most optimal place to start Last Stand because it townfirms two people and we have only one dead villager so far (potentially two with LC).

Let’s run worst case scenario numbers.

It’s 12 people left, if Umami/Muz are truthful then it’s 10:2 village:witch right now. If village LC in the PoE pops on Manasi it goes to 9:1, with two last stand kills it’s 7:1 at SoD 4 which is great numbers, with only 4 people left in the PoE.

We mislynch, two night kills, SoD 5 is 4:1, and we’re in F5, which could potentially be MYLO if both night kills are successful, but this is worst-case and doesn’t account for angel saves.

If angels make a save N4, SoD 5 is 5:1 which is not MYLO. This is ideal, because we narrow the PoE by one more and then in the following day phase we lynch me to pop the DoB onto the most likely remaining suspect.

If we get rid of Manasi today with the LC we have like ~3 days to find the last scum which will not be difficult with only one left.

 

Votal

shadow (2): Dels, Newcomb
Kai (1): Umami