Day Two Start!

<Flavor that may or may not get edited in will go here>

No one has died in the night!

Livelist:
@CerberAsta
@Cobalt
@Empoof
@his fluffiness
@Jarizok
@Keldeo
@Mendel
@Tammy
@TerRaine
@tom


Day End will be on Friday, November 1, at 5 PM PDT (8PM EDT).​

Will 10 alive, it is 6 to soft lynch, 8 to hard lynch.​

​

Timer to EoD​

​

 

!!!

I've gotta be up super duper early in the morning, so I won't be around tonight. I'll talk about some of my thoughts tomorrow.

But I just wanted to pop in and high-five Mendel. Your confidence, and mostly the "skin crawl" post, is ultimately why I went ahead and voted for Sloth. I have a tendency to panic at the day one lynch trying to get it right, and your confidence in that lynch made that probably one of the most relaxed day ones I've ever felt. So thank you! And great job

 

Sloth wagon thoughts:

Im obviously clear of being on that team i assume we all agree with that.

Mendel... theres an awareness the whole time that what he was pushing sloth for is probably more player dependent than alignment. But he never really wavers. Which... i guess makes sense he was still scumreading me for page 1 last he mentioned me. But would be pretty hard commitment to a bus unless he was really hoping someone would fight against him and "convince" him away.
So probably not.

Empoof looks most likely partner of the voters. Poof ended up voting him but not before actively choosing jari out of the two and leaving fluff open.
He also encouraged tammys wavering on sloth towards the end.
Might be confirmation bias though (see next post)

Cobalt the most likely of nonvoters imo. Just popped in and mentioned fluff and no other wagons... a few others also wanted counterwagons but dont feel as bad.

Sloth and fluff voted eachother. Could def be distancing but didnt see anything that made me actively think so.

Tammy and keldeo get minor <not sloths team> points just for voting him and it not looking played up.
--- Post automerged ---

Spoiler

i cant see this as anything but sloth not wanting to scumread empoof.
It just... tonally matches with the scumreads not the nulls
My first thought went a different way but the way sloth responded to me poking at this was very dismissive/pay no attention to that man behind the mirror-y.
So he definitely did choose to bump poof up im sure theres reasons besides being his partner but
Yknow occams razor
--- Post automerged ---

This is a shit push probably not on a buddy
--- Post automerged ---
team 1 rainbow wall:
Mendel
Terr
Tammy/keldeo
Fluff/cerber/jari
Cobalt
Poof

 

So you think I go from not really wanting to lynch fluff, to voting Jari while saying a reason that I don't feel comfortable... while my partner's only two counterwagons would be those two.

Really?

Did you read any of our interactions?

Do you think that Sloth makes a weird "I didn't have a TOWN read" on his partner? With me also blasting him about it?

:v
--- Post automerged ---
Disappointed dog.
--- Post automerged ---

TRY AGAIN
--- Post automerged ---
I'm going to be busy. Was excited until I saw Tom have me as red.

I had Sloth as not w/w with Mendel / Tom / TerRaine. Would rather not lynch anyone on the Sloth wagon today. Should focus on Cobalt / Jarizok today.
--- Post automerged ---
I'm unreasonably more pissed off than I should be.

 

No, I think he treated you like a buddy and you have an amount of wolf equity separate from that

Any cred you might have gotten for ending up on him is more than erased by the jari push beforehand/other things i just mentioned. Do you even disagree with that?

 

well one...sloth you can kiss my ass...freaking ask me to come back and play and go for the achilles like Gage with a scalpel. Dick.

two I suck at reading people it seems.

Three...gonna go with honesty...my uber eats delivery got here 20 minutes early and I was hungry. Defending my wagon that didn't seem to matter since Sloth's was building too much steam for me to stop vs eating a cold burger

 

Well, my prediction that Sloth's hyper analysis and relentless needling would get everyone to paint him as scum was on point, though I honestly had no clue on that one. Gonna have to go back and review the Sloth interactions (or lack thereof) to really get a sense of what might have been going on.

 

I think i want to lynch in poof/jari/cobalt.

Lets go
Vote cobalt
Tbh

Decent shot at sloth partner, and just objectively wolfy (for cobalt)

 

What's your case on cobalt Tom besides inactivity and one post? Could be scummy...could also be someone being called away by real life and hasn't had time to check back in. Don't like trying to lynch people who aren't here a few hours into day 2

 

Hey, sorry. Had a shitty week last week. Going to re-read the thread tomorrow and look for partnery things.

 

Well specifically with cobalt, he has trouble actually playing the game as a wolf without teammates to keep him motivated.
He can certainly be town and just busy/not into the game. But frankly that's all the more reason to vote him rn. If he is town some pressure would do him good.

Also still think his eod popin was actively partnery with sloth and moderately wolfy regardless.
--- Post automerged ---

Well hello.

Feel the pressure pls

 

ok...but that's rather irrelevant here. Everyone's been relatively active D1 besides him and that means he HAD a teammate to keep him motivated. So...this is kinda weird shade to throw.
--- Post automerged ---

Why partnery with Sloth?

 

So we didn’t all come out of Sloth’s iso thinking terRaine had crazy partner equity?

...coolcoolcoolcoolcool.

 

Not irrelevant at all, though it is very much shade. It takes more than being active in thread to motivate your buddies though.

Partnery because he popped in as the sloth wagon was forming and asked to be convinced on the other wagon (fluff) and didnt mention sloth at all.
--- Post automerged ---

Care to share?

 

I do indeed care, but at work rn. I’ll enlighten y’all soon as I’m home.

 

Very irrelevant actually. You say one of his scum tells is he is hard to keep involved without scum team mates. He would have HAD those D1 when he was being inactive. If you were making this arguement part of the way through D2 and he was showing the same inacitivty I'd say it makes sense but you're bringing up a scenario that hasn't been at play yet saying "see this makes him scum"

Cobalt popped in at 2:17 on friday with

At 6:34 Eid posted an official VC of

The only vote change between cobalts #305 and Eid's #322 was Tammy at 2:30 post #306 and that was to unvote fluff. So when Cobalt voted the only wagon with any steam WAS fluff at 4 votes. By your logic he's partnery with sloth at 2 votes, me at 2 votes, and Jari at 2 votes for not mentioning these 2 vote mini wagons and only the 4 vote majority.

 

We have two options today:
1) find sloth's scum buddy and lynch them
2) let the other scum team kill sloth's buddy, and lynch someone from the other team instead

The drawback of method 2 is that it's probably less reliable, and exposes us to two night kills in the coming night (but one might be on scum, so that balances out?). Method 2 is kinda like using one of the scum teams as town-aligned vigilante, IF they play into that strategy.

1) potential Sloth buddies
Looking at people who did not vote Sloth:
1a) Cobalt
Cobalt stops posting midday on Wednesday, except for a single post asking for a summary on the fluffiness case. He sticks out EoD voting Jarizok. If he is Sloth's partner, my mounting pressure on Sloth might have him demoralized, and his one later post establishes a progression on fluffi that he could've used to swoop in and save Sloth if someone else had provided a fifth vote on his fluffiness.

1b) CerberAsta
CerberAsta was strongly townread by Sloth, based on nothing; Sloth invited Cerberasta to play, but does not offer any guidance in the thread (guiding via scum chat?); CerberAsta is distancing from Sloth in their reads; CerberAsta voted fluffiness in the end.

1c) TerRaine
Sloth tunnelled on TerRaine from post 1; does not care to have anyone else scum read. If Sloth planned all along to lynch TerRaine, then TerRaine must be his partner, and this is a bussing strategy: it is very high risk, high reward, because if successful, the other scum team will not target Sloth, and he has town cred. TerRaine voted fluffiness in the end.

1d) Jarizok
voted fluffiness in the end; but scum read with TerRaine by Sloth


2) Mafia from the other team
a) dunno, TerRaine? if you believe Sloth had a true read. However, TerRaine is still alive.

b) If Sloth wanted to nightkill a mafia he had found, he might've townread them to prevent watching while he killed them. In that case, suspects are CerberAsta, Mendel, tom, but we're still alive, so...

c) non-Sloth-based hunting
My main scum read is dead. ;-)
I would actually expect at least one scum to be on the sloth wagon, which is my towncore plus Tom and Fluffi.
Keldeo voting late looks a little strange?

d) Process of Elimination
We might actually have to do town-hunting, aka Process Of Elimination: narrow down the pool of scummy people, and lynch them. It kinda looks like the police weeding out a bunch of suspects: elminate those who have alibis, and you're left with the culprits. I expect I'm not the only player here who knows how that works?
--- Post automerged ---

Not happy to have to wait until tomorrow. You actually had 48 hours to read the thread, unless you thought you might not survive the night?

Vote Cobalt
Don't just coast, do something!

 

Soooo...just gonna completely ignore that fact Tom's reasoning is more or less bullshit and the whole post pointing it out. Neat.

 

Re: 2a), I think Sloth's partner expected TerRaine to be watched, and would not have shot there. In that case, they might have shot at Jarizok? I'm speculating, second-guessing scum night actions is always dicey. The Town Watcher needs to remain hidden, unless they actually saw a scum! Do not correct me if my speculation is wrong! Scum watchers, feel free to correct me, though!
--- Post automerged ---

The reasoning being BS does not make the conclusion invalid.

I'm not reading Cobalt off how motivated he might have been. I am saying mechanically he could've been, and he seems to have had ZERO thoughts on this game since Wednesday morning. This is day 2, I have defended the low-posters on day 1, but this is day 2, get to work!

 

I'm saying that Tom is acting shady as hell and you're not calling him out on it. I pointed out a flat out lie he's pushing as fact and it's kinda "Yea that's nice..."

Aren't you the least bit concerned that the person who wants to get your current wagon going is doing so half with bull and the other half a lie?

I'd like to see more from Cobalt too but you wanna talk about low hanging fruit? We have 5 days to talk this through and we're kinda threatening someone over low activity that COULD be explained by RL when there's actively scummy behavior occurring. It's like staring someone down who might have taken a pack of gum when there's a dude behind you walking away with the tip jar.