I don't have the time to analyze 3 high-volume MU games, one of them anonymous, to see how similar the situations were. The lynchees had 24, 26, and 18 posts respectively.
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You clearly announced you'd be fine with lynching Mendel into Cerber. That's as good as a vote, even if it's not explicit.

 

Do you think it's townie of Cerber to vote you after I called for a PoE that included him?
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Sleeping. I was hoping for more real time interaction since I've churned over the thread and my notes enough times. Seems you're prioritizing analysis, which is fine, just unlucky for me.

If you have questions about anything that I've said or done feel free to mention me, I'll probably be in and out a lot tomorrow.

 

I'm juggling this with other obligations.

I kinda thought Cerber voted me after I pushed them in my wall, but I only saw them pushing me after I'd posted that, so that was only in my mind, but it would have been incredibly opportunistic.

We are working from the same POE, aka { Cerber, Empoof, Mendel }, except we know our own alignments, so this is a little like some F3 LYLO except we also have two spectators with a vote, but I think strategy-wise it is similar. Town will try to make the right decision, scum will try to self-preserve by voting with town on some other town, or try to pocket town into voting with them.

Cerber's vote, seen by itself, is not towny per se, since it fits the first scum strategy. And the analysis that went into it is just "Empoof voted Sloth, jarizok, and was suspicious of Keldeo, therefore Empoof is town", where your vote on Sloth and your suspicion of Keldeo actually should be NAI or lean you scum, and the analysis on me is "defended Jarizok", which is very shallow. And we all don't see this as scummy because "Cerber is new", and therefore has a pass to not do analysis, and to be wrong.

And that is why you shouldn't leave him to be resolved at LYLO, he is the ideal player to take to LYLO for scum. "He's done scummy things that he got away with, but here we are at LYLO, so let's lynch him." But if you thought of today as LYLO, if it really was just us three today, would you still lynch me? Today we resolve from this POE of three, and I resent the idea that me flipping town should just lead to a Cerber lynch tomorrow, because you know, and I know, that that's not how it's done. Tomorrow we examine why everyone who is left is still alive, and that's a whole different ballgame. Today can't be "Empoof vs Mendel", today is about three players.
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My gut feel right now says it's Empoof. It fits the shape of the game that's in my mind, being middling late on Sloth, trying to get Vaimes lynched on D2 but knowing it's Keldeo, bussing Jarizok late, and last night killing Keldeo because he knows you well, and it'd be tough for you today if he was alive. Plus the tom kill. If you're scum, you'd want the game to as it did, except for me pushing Sloth on D1 and Jari not voting on D2, it'd be perfect. By gut feel, this is 100%.

My mind's just not convinced yet, because, where's the proof? In a whodunit, you'd be asking for means, motive, and opportunity, and from the general shape of it, motive and opportunity fits, but that's not enough. It's just a movie script right now, is it based on reality though? And the Empoof script clicks for me, but the Cerber script doesn't. With Cerber, I have some scummy clues at the crime scene, but no strategy that works for a Cerber/Jari scumteam except "muddle through and survive somehow", and I feel that's what Cerber would be doing as either alignment. And what stops me is that this is exactly what we would see as scum agenda, but that it is also exactly what Cerber said on D1 he has experience doing. (Let me see if I remember it right.)
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So, first of all, Cerber voting Keldeo early is proof for good instincts! Don't be sad about having him on your townlist later!

I can't find you telling me that you've played survivor before, so I think that was me remembering a conversation with someone else? But I've been thinking this for a week now, that you have insights and behaviours that come from a similar social game, but that you're just lacking the solving process from mafia. Like, someone who'd have experience not getting lynched, but was unused to solve for alignment.
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If you have experience with werewolf, though, would the Keldeo kill put you right back in familiar territory?
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I feel that a) I've made progress, but b) I'm no nearer a decision. :-/ *sigh*

 

The social games I played lasted 30 minutes, because they were in person, not 5 weeks.

Kinda suspect I might get mislynched today but I at least want to push enough conversation that the town will know who to get tomorrow when it is down to Mendel and Empoof.

I'll try to gather what quotes I might have thought led me to think jarizok could be on my town list but it was probably notttthhhhing and his direct interactions at the time in asking the question had done it.
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Most mafia hide their partners in the nulls yeah? Sloth hid Keldeo in his. I'm assuming Jarizok was kinda following Sloth's whiteknighting me, but I really dunno what his thought process was.

Honestly the hard thing for me right now is I know I'm town but I don't know anything else so I'm deffo judging myself by intent/others by actions. Which is gonna make my arguments weaker and more skewed, so I dunno. Gonna be a weird week, but with so few people now, I'm really trying to step up? And not just sheep?

 

Anyone around?

 

I'm dropping in and out occasionally, but it has been weirdly quiet. I really want this week to be at least KIND OF busy because we need to make sure that, if we DO mislynch today, the two remaining townies tomorrow have the necessary information.

 

Cerber, you looked at the votals from Day 1.

Can you look at them again, but from the point of view that Sloth is town (or not confirmed scum)?

 

I'm really rackin' my brain here for what you're getting at. At the time, I had friend blindness and kinda thought Sloth WAS town but was just being his usual analytical self and drew too much attention too quickly in a way that rubbed folks the wrong way.

Two scum voted you that day. Another minor scum train in Jarizok started by Cobalt, weirdly. Cobalt left his vote there and never changed it, but had no actual reasoning.

Mendel did kind of lead the Sloth train, and if he had been town, Mendel had enough various reasons for his mistake. Dunno if this is the path you're leading me towards, please feel free to step in.

 

What I'm getting at is that as far as Jarizok's partner knew, both Sloth and I were town (or possible town) wagons, and votes need to be analyzed as such.

 

I feel like there should be an obvious conclusion here but anything which could be pulled from it could be pushed against everyone here but me. I'm the only person still alive who didn't vote Sloth day1.
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So voting Sloth day1 doesn't mean anything for towncore leads?

 

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#298 was CerberAsta's last post of D1.

 

I’m having a terrible really bad no good day. I’m not Mafiaing in this mood.

Thanks fluffy. I thought you were someone who took Muslim he’s and suspicion in stride so it struck me as off. You’ve seen vaimes as scum before though, so did you really have no doubts on his alignment based on how active and fighting he was?

 

I'm not certain what Jarizok's partner knew, or guessed.

#4 Empoof votes Fluff
#165 Empoof votes Keldeo
#350 Empoof votes Jarizok
#383 Empoof votes Sloth​

It's just hard to evaluate a bus that didn't happen.
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What did you mean to type here, Tammy?

 

I did start doubting that he was scum when he didn't just collapse and give up, but I saw so many inconsistencies in his posts that I thought his scumgame had just improved.

 

Well that should be take mislynches and suspicion in stride. Sorry! On my phone while trying to let my battery charge some after taking an hour to get my car jump started.

I used to play with someone who dealt with suspicion and lynches pretty well when town but got super survivalistic as scum, and I thought fluffy might be the same way but I might just be wrong on that.

gods typing on your phone is extra torture when you’re I a bad mood.

 

Fluff be mafia so my day 1 can be elite THANKS.​

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Mendel, I don't know Keldeo well at all. We're like passively discord homies. I don't think we've even played a game together before this one, if we did it was a mash where we weren't like actively working together or something like that. I'm pretty sure scum!me would love to have Keldeo around today, someone who is getting suspected by my top town Tammy and is saying that they firmly believe I'm town or that they don't have the willpower to go against me or whatever that weird read he had was. Last night I would've killed either Tammy or Fluff from my PoV, but I suppose that's wifom. Also I wouldn't be going for a crosskill which I suppose would shift the way your analysis would be.

Tom kill, yeah that's the kind of kill I would make.
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Moderately surprised that I'm still being considered Jarizok's partner by people at all but I suppose the interactions were scarce and there's worlds where I could bus him. I think I would've just pinged Jarizok in scum chat to vote Vaimes while he was around ever so we'd get the guaranteed next day. That's the style of wolfing I like to do. And I could've easily pushed the lynch away from Jarizok after vaimes flip since my entire focus was on Sloth's partner. Just doesn't seem... very optimal for me to bus there.

I can talk about this more mostly if Tammy needs me to, if I remember correctly she read the other game here where I was counter wagon to my partner Beruru and tried bussing her there.
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I do wish tom was still around because I'm pretty sure he had me as either Sloth's partner or town, so would've been a good redemption arc. Also for him to slap me about Cerber if he still believed it.

I have a lot of thoughts about who I think the last wolf is but I actually think it's better for me not to share it at this exactly moment. I think we're likely going to f3 and if I'm still alive we win.

 

If I were mafia, I certainly wouldn't kill Tom, seeing as he was actually pretty keen on town clearing me. We know Keldeo killed Ter. I planned to push for a Keldeo lynch toDay and had said as much yesterDay so there wouldn't really be a reason for me to shoot him last night.

Honestly I'd probably have shot Mendel by now since he has appeared to have been, until toDay with the current arrangements, one of the more dogged scumhunters and has expressed some light tunnel vision on me from time to time. Likely Night 2 so I could shift blame to Vaimes.

I mean, I dunno, maybe there would be a logic to me shooting Tom and Keldeo.

 

Lettuce put suspicion on Fluffyboy.

 

Empoof I might have a couple questions tomorrow to try to put any niggles to rest, but I am going to bed and putting this day behind me!
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From my point of view the correct kill last night was a watcher kill.
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I’m not even sure I have niggles