Think I'm settling on the last one being CerberAsta. But I think we should lynch Mendel first for highest chance of winning. I'm understanding this is kind of a weird/selfish position to hold. I'm back to thinking Fluff is just town in most worlds here. That might randomly change when I think about the game later though

Going to be busy tonight and tomorrow, but will check in from time to time. I didn't see any additional questions for me so I'll assume I haven't missed anything and that my play speaks for itself makes 100% sense to everyone so far.

 

What makes you say that?

 

I think if we're wrong on you, in f3 cerber being there is a higher chance of winning than mendel is. And the worlds where you're town, we win a high percentage of the time anyways.

Between Mendel and Cerber, I like Mendel's process and overall "towniness" toDay more than Cerbers. Tammy put it really well so I'd just be repeating what she said about him - Signs point to him in a vacuum, but it just doesn't feel right at the same time.

 

Cerber is not the most newbtown player I’ve seen but he still feels new town? I suppose jarizok could have told him to put some suspicion on him day one for distancing

(The post I started a few hours ago before I got called away. Sorry I ended up not having anytime today. I thought I’d be able to get my thoughts out on Cerber and empoof, epic fail. I’ll try again tomorrow.)

 

I had some completely useless issues eat 5 hours of my time today, to the point where it's 4:50am, I haven't slept, and am looking at pushing today's travel to Saturday. :-(
I am absolutely sorry for that, you deserve better of me, but I could not do it. If this were my old site, we could vote to extend the day...

 

Vote Count 4.1
Mendel (1): CerberAsta

Not Voting (4): Empoof, Fluffiness, Mendel, Tammy

With 5 alive, it is 3 to hard lynch. There is no soft lynch.

Day Ends in ~20.5 hours.

 

Man this week is borked. (Many sympathies to y'all, Mendel and Tammy!!! That sounds like a lot of bluhhhhh)

We pretty much did all of our work on the first part of toDay.

It seems like none of us have genuinely confident reads but I dunno. Not feeling good going into EoD where we are right now. Mendel feels like a decent pick, but Empoof is being real dicey with the "Mendel is a good pick to lynch today because he'll scumread me tomorrow" line of reasoning.

Like Empoof has explained it okay but it's... not settling super well.
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Like if Mendel hadn't mentioned having a weird tunnelvision on me way early on in the game a couple times and suspected me a few times, it would be a completely red flag for me. I do KIND of understand the logic because if we wagon'd Empoof and he flipped town, I'd know Mendel was most likely the scum but he'd have enough hunter equity to outweigh p much anything I could do, especially seeing as it's rare I have more than 15ish minutes at a time to try and post something, so quote-hunting/question-forming is not my strong suit.

 

I mostly just trust myself in f3, is what it comes down to.
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But I don't trust my reads enough right now to bet the game on it.
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Basically everyone left alive has decent reason for not being Jarizok's partner except Mendel, who is feeling naturally townie in this moment.

Purely from a "jarizok interactions" standpoint, order would be:

Fluff
CerberAsta
Mendel

And yeah, I'm literally never considering Tammy this game.

But I just sort of... believe Mendel's process. The same sort of way I was feeling about Vaimes but all the signs were pointing towards Vaimes.

I have two quotes in my notes that I keep staring at that make me think it's CerberAsta, and near them is where CerberAsta has what I'll just call a "not townie" slip where he says we should No Lynch and wait for night kill information.

So this is:

Jarizok pushing on Fluff for his overall style of play, while trying to gain thread traction myself at the time.
Jarizok being very pinpoint-y with Mendel, in a way that I don't think partners really are.
CerberAsta being not townie.

Which reinforces a lot of my reads as you can imagine.

But then I also think about how Mantichora plays these sorts of games - the "white flag" approach where you play chicken with scum reading your bro without trying to get them lynched so that you appear distanced from them. This makes me want to read over End of Day 2 again and see how Fluff pushed on Jarizok, since I still think that while the post I highlighted to Mendel "fits that description" it is the type of observation I would find surprising to make from a partner. "You're just assuming someone thinks X and explain it away rather than asking them why they think it." At that time too, Mendel was getting decently town read from what I remember so pushing on him there solely for distancing purposes while pointing out what would be considered a major scum-oriented process arching over Mendel's playstyle is... idunno. It goes beyond the chicken thing to me.

For things that I wrote town that look good for CerberAsta was his early vote on Jarizok and him popping in to hammer him. But It's very possible that Cerber read my "these people aren't moving" post and decided to hammer that way.

The things that make me confused on it being CerberAsta is the nights kills honestly - I agree that I don't think he would shoot tom without it being solely a watcher read, and before Vaimes flipped he had Keldeo as someone he wanted to research as Sloth's Partner if Vaimes flipped town. So it feels weird to do that, and then suddenly kill him in the night when I think CerberAsta wouldn't be going for a crosskill (I can't remember what he said about it this phase).

So when I go over stuff, it feels really weird and uneasy and makes me want to suspect Fluff more. That's where the tinfoil stuff comes in. But then I go around the merrigoround again and think about how tunnelvision fluff was at EoD towards Jarizok, so he would have to have believed that Vaimes was going to be the lynch no matter what or that he'd be solely riding cred for the rest of the game which opens him up as a potential night kill last night in my eyes.

And also whenever I'm "in flow" with fluff he just... feels town in ways I can't quite describe. Like the carefree butterfly thing. And his comeback "same" or "me too" or whatever it was when Tammy and I were tinfoiling him before Vaimes was lynched was so clean. So if he really is scum, he's been playing a very good game.
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That was probably as messy as my brain could be when it comes to posts.
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I'm going to be busy until EoD.

If we want to hard clear fluff, I think lynching CerberAsta ends the game toDay more often, and I can deal with 1v1ing Mendel in final 3 if it doesn't.

If we aren't 100% on fluff, I think lynching Mendel has the highest chance of winning because I can deal with that f3 much easier.

If we want to suspect Tammy, I'm not about that life.

The choice is yours! Or it'll end up being mine and I'll be grumpy about it when I'm back.

 

Well I'm glad I learned the lesson about Day1 No Lynch now and not in another game. If I didn't at least have the BOTD for being new, I'd have probably gotten Insta-Killed for it.
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Also while Tom may have promised to jump in and hammer, I can see no genuine benefit to me actually jumping in to do it myself and guarantee the hammer when Vaimes had been read up as a pretty dece wagon run by a widely townread Mendel and even Tom. (Such a hard-pushed wagon it wound up being the only wagon we had the following day, rather wastefully.)
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(I'll say that I skimmed the posts in a rather panicked state as I had realized I was about to miss ANOTHER EoD with about 3 minutes to spare which resulted in my actually missing the post where Tom had said he would switch wagons [and my own post being WAY shorter than I would have wanted it to be] though I acknowledge that's something no one can realistically check.)

 

I should be back here in a couple hours.

 

I mean, you missing the point on why No Lynch doesn't give us information is what I'm calling a "not townie" slip. Not the act of No Lynch itself.

I'd rather talk about that in post game than go over it before it becomes to gross of a read.

 

Anyone aroind?

 

I'm about to take a shower.

 

Vaguely around.

 

Cerber, which of the five remaining players do you think is scum?

 

I'm back and I'm here until deadline

I'm also a little buzzed because nacho had like a two hour window between volunteering and needing a nap before an overnight shift, so I'm sorry if I'm rambly

and also for maybe weird typing something is going on with my keyboard
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though I gotta figure out my password for nbcsports so I can watch figure skating while playing please hold.
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does anyone else hate the I am Not a Robot find all the traffic lights question cuz who thought of that?

 

Moderator Note:

Day ends in 1.5 hours. I won't be around until after then, likely - timer is in SoD post. There is no soft lynch, day ends when majority is reached. Please stop posting when hammer occurs.

 

Hi Tammy!

 

My gut feeling is

Mendel - most likely scum
Empoof - second most likely scum

Fluff - Almost definitely town
Tammy - Def town