I do get the impression off the top of my head that Sera doesn't fit onto a lot of teams.

 

I think I was looking for just... someone else's take on that aspect of the post, or feedback on my own position, because I felt like we just went back and forth between our different interpretations of the post without reaching a conclusion or changing either of our original viewpoints. Which is on me, at least partially.

(my position, in short = I don't agree with Grape townreading Seratin based on the sentiment in that post, because I think "the people who changed votes", depending on the definition, is either large enough that mafia Seratin could have targeted non-partners within the group, or small enough that it probably doesn't contain both of his partners)

 

I mean, he's the only person in thread who seemed to have that thought-- I'd believe that it was an impression he came away with when reading the game after subbing in and posted in thread on d3 as a wolf-- weird read either way. I don't think gun giving/mislynchable is really a super helpful train of thought, and besides it's not like miner was going to get lynched any time soon the way things were going, the push there had little traction after EoD1. Not sure if I'm really coherent right now, staying up to finish some artwork for a friend and spooling thoughts out of my head with no little resistance.

tl;dr it's weird as either alignment, it doesn't make sense in a world where rand is the most influential voice in wolf team but otherwise doesn't really swing that much either way on that specific axis i think

 

Could you elaborate? I had him not w/w with a lot of people who are now flipped, so that's not super useful.

Of the unflipped people I have him down as probably not with MP7, probably not with you for pointing you out so early and making sure to elaborate later on that it was like, a super early lean. Maybe not Sloth. Grapefruit defending him seems like an easy pull but I almost want to say it was too forward for that.
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That's actually a lot of people lol.

 

I think I agree with you there-- at a glance, that group is <keld, sloth, waco, fluff> plus fire/me not around at eod on miner wagon, which is not the smallest pool.

 

No, this is understandable and helpful, thanks. Good luck with your art.

 

Definitely not mp7, obviously not miner, not fluff, grape doesn't handle him this way as w/w, agree on probably not sloth, if you don't count me or you then he'd have to be a wolf with exactly waco/rhand.

In all honesty, if I was to pick out a partner for sera it'd be you. You voted him yesterday but pulled back quickly, asked a lot of leading questions to him, said you're "waiting to see" after his first post.
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vote: Rhand

 

Looping back to this, didn't really see anything ruling out the Rhand/Cobalt pair. Rhand maybe doesn't have to reevaluate his TR on Seratin today, but that's a bit thin. Of course I'm the easy third for anyone who isn't me, probably, but otherwise the third is hmm.

if Waco/Rhand isn't a thing, Rhand/Cobalt/...Grape?? Any Grape/Cobalt/X doesn't really work. Cuth seemed genuine in talking about Rhand just now. Think I still believe it's not a bus wrt MP7/Sloth.

Or I just made a silly not w/w read that's actually not founded at all, but I do like that Waco/Rhand read.
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Oh cool crosspost.
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I feel like if Seratin/Cobalt is actually town, Grape really doesn't need to make that post about his outrage, either.

 

Just curious: who'd you worldbuild as a team in a grape!w world?

Not a productive or necessary thought probably, but wondering since you're pretty focused on his slot.

 

Hmm. Grape/Waco crossed my mind a couple times in previous days based on their mutual high townreads, but I don't think Waco treats him that way at the end of yesterDay or Grape reevaluates him at the start of toDay if they are? Not Fluff, probably not Seratin. It's vague and entirely based on memory, but I don't think Grape treats Sloth the way he did today if they're together. I had a thought about not with Rhand for that high-fivey moment earlier today on Sloth. I think even from a third-party perspective definitely not me lol. Other people who I don't particularly remember interactions with are you and MP7.

I don't have a high degree of confidence in my not w/w / worldbuilding thoughts but I feel like not a lot of worlds work with him, either.

I don't perceive myself as super focused on him tbh, just realtimed with him a bit and ISOed him first this evening.
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Actually, Cuth, a deep cut for not you/Grape is that Grape said he felt like his EOD was being ragged on early toDay, when the people posting about it were (I think) you and MP7.

I feel like I could run through this exercise with most people in this playerlist and come out with the conclusion that they don't fit anywhere really, though. Maybe something to try for real tomorrow evening.
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If you're still around, could you build a team around Rhand?

Humor me and don't put me on it.

 

I'm not trying to reduce everything you've done down to Grape, just that seemed to lead to the Sera thoughts just now + asking people about the conversation earlier. Just trying to get inside your head. In a good way.

Will respond to Rhand thing in a few.

 

This is another "Waco encouraging a scumread on fire" quote, this time to Cuth.

He doesn't really talk about the interface between this suspicion of fire for pushing Miner lazily and his suspicion of Miner himself, and so it's possible that this was mafia Waco's gameplan in order to distance/foil not w/w reads, but... meh.
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Oh, sure, I didn't think you were trying to be reductive. I'll be around for awhile if you want to talk more.
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I feel like I'm implicitly assuming that you and MP7 are v even though I have no conscious comfortable reason to think that other than sheeping some dead villagers / generic activity and solviness and reasonable posting

 

I feel very apprehensive that I've come out of this exchange feeling better about Keldeo.

I don't know how much better but that whole conversation had a lot of the background thinking that I felt had been missing.

Which means my reads are now a giant pile of mush. Yay.......
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I'm going to try to do some ISO'ing later but it will be slow because I'm finally watching The Man Who Killed Don Quixote

Which is the Adam Driver movie I got excited about way back in D1.

 

Grapefruit confirmed not taken over
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(Tell us how it goes!)

 

Off the top of my head:

Miner pushed fire hard
Rhand pushed sloth hard
M+ pushing hard now

Am I missing any major interactions there? I don't think I really am.

Discounting the two of us and fluff for now again, this leaves:

Cobalt, Waco, Grape?

There's an off chance of Rhand/sloth but that's a really weird world and I don't want to think about it.
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In which case I think Waco is in ~every world where Rhand is a wolf?

 

Discounting that you are town reading me there is no reason I can't be buddies with Rhand imo.

 

All this to say, perhaps, we're not at the point where we can start clearing players based on overlap or lack thereof of PoEs and should probably just lynch whoever's wolfiest right now.
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There isn't, but you're probably not with sera, thus waco's the constant.

 

I don't think you're missing any pushes by or on fire/Rhand.

Waco kind of pushed fire, but I don't think he voted him, or explored the implications of that read coexisting with his Miner read. What do you make of my read that Waco and fire aren't w/w because of Waco bringing up his suspicion of fire multiple times to, like, lead other people into suspecting fire? Is it just posturing?

Grape, you liked Waco d1-d2 most for him agreeing with tom against you early on, right? Was there more to the early read?
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Yeah, that makes sense. But it's tempting.

 

I don't know. Is it more likely than a rhand/grape/sera team? I think so.

Plus I think your read works better working from Waco w to fire rather than the other way around, but maybe that's just me.

 

ISOed Waco.

Him agreeing with tom early - I understand the read, but it's not a huge deal to me. Prodding Osie and Fluff into more activity is marginally alright.

Overall I get the sense that he's, like, evaluating the game and trying to solve people. I think this is a good example of how there's nuance and consideration of interactions in some of his posts:

I also liked him questioning Umami but not really progressing it into a scumread immediately. Like, he wasn't going into it with the intent of scumreading her, he approached it kind of neutrally at first? This is weaker.

He also says he wants to mark Fire not aligned with Gemma as a throwaway line on day 1, and on day 2 he goes more into depth about his Fire/Miner not w/w read - points for consistency.

His EOD2 felt... genuinely confused about Grape, I think? But I could see that from either alignment.


What I don't like is how opportunistic some of his reads seem? That's not the right word. But he almost piggybacked onto the original suspicion of Miner's slot - like, this is his main discussion of Gemma besides saying that she seemed defensive much earlier in the game, and then the slot was one of his top scumreads.

His behavior at EOD1 felt a bit like he was on the sidelines egging on my half-baked suspicions of Umami - see this post and this post. He didn't really seem to care who got lynched. If he's town that can probably be chalked up to his limited availability/engagement at deadlines? If he's mafia he's played a fairly clean game so far looking inquisitive and avoiding suspicion, and wanted to leverage that to encourage villagers voting villagers.

@M Plus 7 - can I get some of your general thoughts on Waco? Because my gut was also telling me that Waco was sus earlier but now I don't know.
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The idea that it goes more in the "Waco w -> fire v" direction makes sense to me.

With the starting point of fire/Rhand being town or Waco being mafia, these fire suspicion posts from Waco feel somewhat more like jumping on an easy target / trying to get townies to stop clearing the LHF already, look how scummy he was!
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I mean, not to discount the fire/Rhand v and Waco v world where Waco's reaction was genuine.
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In summary:

Keldeo, Miner

Fluffiness - sheeping tom/Cuth glgl (but I also agree with the meta read)
Grapefruit21 - feels agendaless, honest

I haven't ISOed: Sloth, Cuthalion, M Plus 7 (oh no MP7 has 200 posts)
The Waco Kid - fairly solvy and genuine, but some pushes have felt agenda-y / opportunistic

Cobalt - slot hasn't posted much, don't really get Grapefruit's read on SOD2 posting. He doesn't actually fit onto a lot of teams, though? Question mark?
Rhand - I have no real reason to townread him except sheeping Osie? Could get with voting here maybe idk.