Yeah, and while I would love to think that Cobalt is town, and I appreciate his effort and unique perspective given the situation, I don’t feel inspired by calling him that.

I think the most likely explanation is that the scum team was really desperate, hence the unvoting, and the scum team would be most desperate if indeed the last teammate is Serabalt.

 

They don't actually gain that much if there hadn't been a lynch? It would be F8 MYLO right now, but we would definitely be lynching Waco today. Was he hoping we'd hem and haw over Sloth just being a wolf vs. having been framed in F6, and ML there?
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Yeah, that makes sense.

 

I’m not sure what reasonable path to victory that team would even have, so why not unvote at that point?

 

Good question. What else could they have done?

The thread environment changed so much in just those final 24 hours given I was entertaining you and Rhand as having w/w equity earlier that same day phase. So how could a scum team with Sloth and Waco even have developed an effective counter-strategy to how things turned out so hostile to them in the end? I honestly can’t find an answer to that.
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Oddly enough, Miner's shot on Rhand might have been even better for us than if it hit a scum like say, Waco -- because that exact chain of events, combined with what you had been posting in the interim and my locking you as absolute town, actually led us down a very specific world and they just got crunched underneath it.
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And so maybe instead they just would have killed me last night and hoped they could push you as a mislynch, which I think is exactly what Waco and Sloth had planned to do... but then once Rhand was conftown, there was no way they could have killed me over him, and we all really came together as town locking each other during the end there.

 

Even without Waco unvoting, Sloth gets lunched, right? So for a deep wolf to gain by Waco deliberately outing himself, assuming it was deliberate and not "panic because there is no path to victory", it would have to be a deep wolf tied explicitly to Waco w? But I don't think anyone fits that, except maybe me lol.

The consensus at the end was Waco/Sloth w/w, so this line of thought probably isn't super productive anyway.
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God your pocket is so cozy.
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Not entirely sure I follow? Miner would have missed eventually, so then they would have been locked into killing whoever got confirmed by his last shot.

 

Right, so it really makes no sense to posit that there is a deep wolf, because in that event Waco's actions if anything make less sense to me. If I was, for example, the other scum, then why have Waco risk being outed like that even if he was destined to die today?
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If Miner had shot a scum, he'd still be alive, which I suppose makes the case to still kill the conftown Miner over me, but they could have perhaps more successfully killed me, continued to let the thread become more hostile in your direction, and just hope that they could snag enough MLs in the interim.

I'm really not sure. Just brainstorming out loud. None of it is very compelling though. I really still think the scum team's actions make no sense if the final scum is anyone but Cobalt.
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And Cobalt's behavior on its own, where he blatantly tried to pocket me, which makes the most sense given my thread position at the time, and the proposal of the deepwolf theory without extrapolations, etc. -- it all leads to it just being scum Cobalt trying anything he can, which I have to give him credit for.
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I'm the most paranoid motherfucker normally in situations like these, but I'm like 99% sure it's Cobalt. If it somehow isn't, I suppose that'll be your all's problem and not mine, but I will protest that reality because it would be that weird.
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Let me go back and look at Seratin's posts again myself. Perhaps there's something there.

 

Ohhh, all this time I thought Miner would have gotten to shoot multiple times if he shot scum (Berserker/Samurai, rather than Desperado). Never mind.

 

Also, this is a really dumb take, but in addition to all of the other things said about fluff, would Waco have messed this up if they were scummates?
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Oh, I see! Yeah, unless I'm mistaken, he would have just shot and then it would have been it. So I was thinking... if I'm Waco and Sloth, even if things progress terribly, I've planned for making you a ML. So even with a Miner conftown in the thread maybe with that goal in mind it would have been easier to deal with than Rhand or myself still being around, for example.
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A thing in Seratin's posts if they are indeed the final scum is Sloth's making a big deal out of his "it's just Day 1" comment and piggybacking off of my comment on it. Shrug, but it could be that Sloth wanted there to be some distancing there.

I really think a team of Sloth/Waco/Seratin planned on Sloth being the endgame person, given that hypothesis, and that perhaps they expected Sertain to go down first.
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Other than that, Seratin's ISO is ehhh. It's not really much of anything. I could easily see it being scum.
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Thinking through an alternative where Keldeo is the last scum and I just laugh. I think Waco and Sloth might have been hoping that we'd WIFOM on whether those attempts were distancing... I suppose if you all are re-visiting this post-Serabalt and the game is still going, then consider it heavily, but in my opinion I absolutely do not see it. Keldeo was a designated ML.

 

We've actually played together a number of times in the last, oh, 4-5 years? Not ever a lot in a row, and never really interacted that much in games that I can remember, so while it's very much a name I recognize and have a broad idea of I don't really know much about him as a player specifically.

 

What do you think of the non-Serabalt world possibilities at this point, Cuth? If we lynch Waco and then Cobalt flips town, what would your instinct suggest?

 

No lynching would mean that they get an extra shot in assuming we no lynch again to balance it out, but that plan only works if <remaining wolf> thinks there's a good chance they don't just get dunked on as soon as sloth/waco die. It could be a yolo strategy from cobalt!w because he thinks he might be able to lynch one of fluff/grape over him and win, but wouldn't be able to not get lynched two days in a row? That, or it's someone else who was hoping to be able to lynch cobalt in lylo for an easy win.

 

What sort of plan does a team conduct though if Cobalt is the last remaining teammate?

 

Assuming the next two NKs in that world are you and keld, I'd pretty confidently read fluff>grape in lylo unless there's any new information, with the caveat that I'd reread fluff/grape in the context of flips. You?
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Unvoting there's still probably better than not, but yeah.

 

I'd have to assume that you and Keldeo are the NKs in my universe, but it leads me to an incredibly similar situation. I'm not sure I could say whether I would vote fluff or Grape; I would have to completely re-evaluate at that point, although I do feel very mildly better about Grape than I do about fluff right now.

 

If you're a wolf, I dare you to lynch cobalt and nk fluff/grapefruit before lynching me in f3 for style points.
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I should probably talk a little more about fluff. Give me a second to pull up some links.

 

I would love to do that, but alas. I've played a good town game though.

That sounds great. I'm losing a lot of steam.

 

am i even drunk?​

Votecount 4.1

The Waco Kid (2): Cobalt, Keldeo

Abstaining (5): Fluffiness, M Plus 7, Cuthalion, Grapefruit21, The Waco Kid

With 7 alive, soft lynch is 4 and hard lynch is 5.

Deadline is here; about one hour remains.

 

At a Seder, so popins will be infrequent before Dayend.

Just in case,

Vote Waco

 

Thanks for that, fluff.

 

Key points from his play in MCU:

Parks his vote on a teammate during RVS and leaves it there for three days.

Does a lot more poking/asking questions initially than this game (it is also much more active).

Doesn't follow up on any of these until prodded about it.

Doesn't know how to respond to things, says "i'm probably gonna need help yeah" in wolfchat.

Eventually starts making reads, but they're just these random blocks tacked onto other people's posts and fairly heavily edited/encouraged by tom.

Townreads come from piggybacking other reads, wolfreads come out of absolutely nowhere (but once they're there, they stay there).

Basically everything from when he starts getting voted d1 -> when he gets lynched d3 is either a) because tom and i were begging him to post more and then were double- and triple-checked in chat by tom or b) because tom literally wrote posts for him to post, and even then he just peaced out entirely shortly into d3.

Compare that to this game: he's being voted by both me and tom, who were wolves with him in MCU, and he posts things like

And this all follows really reasonably and logically from his posts on d1. It's night and day compared to the "I'm supposed to think this villager is a wolf so i'm going to push them and make reads" material from MCU, like the following:

tl;dr He just feels so damn confident and comfortable that I don't really see this ever coming from the same wolf!fluff as was in that game.