I think this reason for townreading Waco is murkier now that Cuthalion has flipped wolf. In a world where they are wolves together, and Cuthalion has started getting some pressure, Waco would be worried about how his posts to TerRaine about Cuthalion would be perceived and want to try to head off questions about it.

He drops both Sloth and Cuth post-flip because "one of them" suggested a similar NK strategy in a past game. That's definitely a safe statement to make about a partner, since you're not actually committing to suspicion on either person. He has never followed up publicly on this point, although he did spend a lot of time asking regfan and me to explain our Sloth townreads.

(Would be interested to know what made him think Sloth and Cuth were not W/W.)

After Cobalt makes several posts calling tom a wolf, Waco agrees while calling the fact that he agrees with Cobalt "oddly notable":

Here he bites back at tom's AtE reaction to pressure, shutting down tom's defense:

Next, Waco posts an updated read on Cuthalion. Cuthalion has two votes on him at this point:

Backing away from his Cuthalion townread from D1, while adding a meta reason to townread Cuthalion - lurking - and ending up "torn."

Tom calls out Waco's case on him as terrible, and also super town:

and Waco tears into him for being dismissive/dishonest and for misrepresenting his position around the Wisp wagon:

This is a pretty hard bus if W/W, though there is little attempt to talk to anyone else about tom, and tom clearly doesn't want to attack Waco in return.

 

The Cuth wagon blows up to 6 votes (y-1) and Waco doesn't want to go there:

Near deadline, he has the option to vote either Cuth or Jarizok, and chooses Jarizok (while stating he'd still prefer tom):

Then proposes Jarizok/Cuth team:

The next day, Waco notices that fonti and I are now wolfreading tom, and asks us about it, but does not vote tom himself:

He joins the Cuth wagon at the last minute, after not really developing any wolf read or thoughts on the slot:

Today, he points out an issue with tom's slot, and says tom is probably a wolf:

But he's not voting tom, even though he's been his strongest wolfread all game, and is now basically caught. So.

 

I think this comes down to: Waco's town read and progression on Cuthalion is very sketchy and looks W/W. Waco's read on tom would be bussing, but a review shows that tom was never in immediate danger of being yeeted at any point while Waco was voting him - and now that he is in danger of being yeeted, Waco is not voting him.

 

Appreciate the walk through of everything there, is super helpful. And yeah, I think Waco fits in both worlds (Amy/Waco, and Tom/Waco) but I lean slightly more towards the Waco/Tom one, I think your point about him not voting Tom today, and the timing of the push on Tom and things make a lot of sense as a buss. Is looking increasingly possible it's just Tom/Waco and we've (or me specifically) have wasted a lot of time.

Can you maybe explain to me why you're not voting Tom at the moment though, or more I guess why you haven't been since early in the day when you unvoted him, because definitely side-eyesed that a bit.

 

I've been working on the Waco analysis above and didn't want to vote / have tom hammered before getting that out there and having time for it to be discussed.

You can assume my vote is effectively on tom. I am 100% not voting Amy today, or anyone outside tom/Waco. Unless we decide to yeet outside JOAT claims today (I haven't caught up on the discussion re: that) we should be yeeting tom.

 

Nod, fair enough, makes some sense, but doesn't really dispel my concerns that this would make sense in a Tom/You world (Scared of risk or hard yeet on Tom since if Wacos town the vote on Tom would/should be inevitable, and Sloth has said he doesn't mind too much which we do -- and therefore giving tom time to sway people, or try to swing yeet to like Waco to buy time) which is fine, because we'd have more than enough yeets to go Waco->You and still find the scum if it's not over. Long story short, I think if you're town you're right on Waco so thumbsup.

 

@tom if Amy's off the table, who do you think should eat the yeet.

Commencing catchup.

 

Did you just talk yourself out of that read halfway through your own paragraph.

 

Nope. Should read "I can see you doing this as town, and being right on Waco" and "I can see you doing this as mafia with tom".

 

Im voting dels as scummiest and most prowolf individually
Cobalt my second as best fit with amy and being so thoroughly in his scum meta


Despite accusations im not solving i do have reads on everyone in the game and a full poe

(Ok ive abandoned reads on gemma and rubi because theyre weak enough id rather not be sheeped. But i still have them)

 

Tom & Fonti merry go round posts made me dizzy. At least tom made sense, either he's scum trying to tie me to him or in the tin foil worlds he's town and correct.

Fontisian does not. All of her comments note scum!me attempting to do things that would send me deep into a game. Which is funny because a scum team with me would never plan on that. Like the last game, where I intentionally sacrificed myself as scum, because I'm never going to endgame as scum.

Honestly @Regfan, just yeet me toDay. It'll be a mislynch, but it'll give you, Fonti and Sloth an extra day or two to actually use your brains since I'm town.

Yeah, I voted Jarizok, my number 2 scum read, while saying I'd prefer to vote my main scum-read, of whom I cased earlier in the day, and was annoyed people didn't join me logical.

With due respect, D3 was never going to support a wagon on tom.

Yes, I haven't voted tom yet today. When I was in the thread last he already had 6 or 7 votes an nobody wanted to Maj. My vote going there is without saying.

 

I’m town.

Hold the line, reg. We’ve got this.

 

If anyone needs me, I'll be re-reading for a while.

 

Huh, why would you want this when the alternative is actually yeeting Tom, your strong scum read since D1. And in that world we have Amy/Sloth alive as town JOATs, a track (a cop check) that can be used on you, and 4 yeets to find the last.

Is a weird request if you're town, and think Toms mafia.

 

This is kind of where I'm at too. Think Rubi's analysis of tom=>Waco is strong enough that I'm willing to buy into it pretty heavily if Rubi's v.

 

Sigh
Confirmation bias kills

I dont have much read from that case
It looks like if yeet is going outside of claims today it would be between waco/rubi, so theres motivation there

Some amount of the case is about interactions with me, which if scum hed know was good for today but a waste for later...
If it was all cuth interactions id say tmi scum
If it considered amy too id call it towny
This in between thing is kinda meh


It does remind me of my day 1 scumread which was all about taking middle paths...


Dont sheep me on rubi prolly i still got nothing
Would yeet over waco certainly, but i do know my opinion doesnt matter til day 5 if at all

 

...the phrasing of this post is kind of pingy given how comfortably ahead we are.

Like maybe I'm reading too far into it but even with today's vote being contested I'm kind of at the point where I don't ever think we're losing? So "hold the line, we've got this" is sort of a weird mindset to be in from a villager here.

 

Im just gonna pretend that waco post doesnt ping me


Dammit

 

Because I'm tired of every other post being, "Waco's clearly the partner for either" & "Waco's inevitably getting yeeted regardless." Which I admit, my style in this game was never going to avoid that. But at least with my slot cleared y'all can actually find the last.

It's a weird request if I'm town. It's also a surrender if I was scum, so idgaf, because you'd yeet the claims next.

 

So I'm going to go re-read and save you from yourselves