Thanks for all of this, is definitely appreciated and can see what you're saying. I'm also getting to a "I can't really find the scum if it's not Vaimes...or maybe Cobalt" spot in the game which does mean that if you yeeted through those two and they're both town, I'm not sure I'd want to leave a hard clear on anyone other than yourself for the F3. I don't really think I can really explain just how town I think Dels's play is at the moment.

I'm also not looking at either of Cobalts or Vaimes's posts today and jumping up and down thinking "Yep, they're definitely lock scum, geez look at what they're doing, super scummy", it's more PoE, lack of seeing normal Vaimes!Town stuff, and thinking there's not been much deep thoughts from him this game that makes me think he's mafia. I do agree with the point about Amys play sort of fitting in a "felt like they had a deepwolf partner" kind of rings true, I think that would fit/work with Vaimes, and I don't think it does with Cobalt or Waco. Like Amys fake-claim was well crafted, and that's probably the sort of thing that /should/ give me some paranoia about Fonti and make me think it's possible that she's mafia here. I guess when I go through her and try and explain my town read to you later today, I'll either be able to convince you and myself and get back to where I was, or we'll have a lot more to talk about.

 

@Gemma - I've got heaps of back to back meetings at the moment, but I'll be done at 5, and then got a good 2 hours free where I can reread her and talk with you during that time. Do you think you'll be able to be around / have done the rereading of her during that or before then?

 

I'm going through Cuth and Amy, will do fonti after with maybe a break in between. I should be able to get through it at least partly in the next couple of hours. Let me know when you're around and we'll talk.

 

Can someone clarify for me how she knows Cobalt / about this volume tell so I can put it out of my mind? @Cobalt

 

In retrospect, this post clearly doesn't come from a JOAT imo. Wish I'd done some backreading sooner.

 

(Cuth asked me about the volume tell just before this, I believe it's in one of the posts I quoted.

The thing about Amy's claim isn't that it was particularly good (it was, but that was the crux of it.) It very, very lucky. She claimed at the beginning of the Day and softed which Night she saved Reg before knowing who was going to cc her, and it happened to be basically the only person in the game who was more suspected than she was. If anyone else, with the possible exceptions of Waco or Rubicon, claim that save, I think Amy just gets yeeted that Day. Even Waco and Rubicon would have been in better positions than Tom. Claiming the second save instead of the first one was probably the smart move, because the second save was more likely to be claimed by a player who thought they'd go deep in the game, since that means they used the motion detect earlier, but it didn't rule out someone like me or Gemma claiming that save.

 

Talk about how the read has changed and why, please. Go through your process.

 

I don't feel like I know Waco well enough to say whether he'd post this case while Tom is pushing his partner. I'm leaning towards probably not.

 

Humm.

I wonder if this is a reflection of how Cuth thinks about his teammates as scum. A lot of the other reads focus on specific things players have done or focusing on their style, but the Vaimes one is more about how people are perceiving him, i.e. he is playing how villagers expect him to play as town, instead of an actual read. And the Amy one is similar, but more about how Amy doesn't have those expectations.

I could be confirmation biasing this, and I'm not at all certain that Vaimes is the last wolf. This is more of a thing I'll look back at after I have the flips.

 

So, Cobalt and Amy don't know each other at all?

 

This is like Von's tom defense.

It's focused on one minor thing that /wasn't the actual issue/ and is super sympathetic to the town who was getting pressured, to the point that it entirely misses that there was a valid case against them. Wisp was acting really weird and self conscious, and not communicating well. Tom voted to save a wolf (and probably never actually read my case against Cuth) while trying to avoid responsibility for that vote, and had a bad counterclaim situation.

But to Von, it's just "Wisp was using to many exclamation points" and "people don't like tom's style." He's way too open to their pov, because he considers the town pushing them to be using silly arguments against obvious townies who are struggling and trying to show off their towniness. He has no paranoia, because he knows. He doesn't really consider the cases against these town, because he already knows they're wrong.

Like, @Gemma, you said it was super hard for you to get the point where you believed tom was town. It wasn't hard for Von, he just floated in there with a read on tom's desperate self defense. You focused on how Amy wasn't around at all, and that's super easy for a wolf to do, but Von wasn't considering what Amy was doing, he just felt like tom was being towny.

Two Days ago, I thought Von was extremely town, because I thought tom was a wolf, and I knew Von wouldn't be defending him like he was as his teammate, and would have just let tom go down while trying to get some towncred, while hopefully not being the reason tom dies if it was possible for him to get out of it. Except tom wasn't a wolf, and that's exactly what Von did with Amy.

 

I have no idea? Presumably, she spectated the champs game he was in?

The volume tell was 100% talked about in thread before she brought it up, though.

 

Yeah, my Cuth reads were not my strong point in this game, and if I need to be misyeeted to clear that than not much I can do I suppose.

I'll try to clear up what my progression on him through the game. I'll preface with this, unless I forgot a game before my hiatus, my only experience with Cuth is the previous game on here in which we've wolfed together (the game you've seen me reference).

#484 (My response to Ter): As I previously mentioned in #1193, the question that I'm following up on in #484 was to see if Ter was on the same page/seeing the same thing as me wrt the Sloth/Cuth non w/w thing given her t!Sloth read and Cuth vote. Perhaps Ter was more perceptive than I, but I found her read on the situation to not be seeing the same things I was at all, and some of it seemed off enough that I was considering it could be agenda/faked. I had a conversation after this point with Dels, (I think?) wrt to building/stifling conversations. Effectively the focus was more that I was bumping hard on the weak reasoning of Ter's post, and the lack of similar thoughts to me, than anything really dealing with Cuth.

#1193:
This is where I was standing near SoD 2
The Waco Kid
Wiisp,
Akina

T:Rubicon, Fluff/Regfan
LTels,
FoT: Cuth, Fonti,
N: Cobalt, Gemma, Sloth, Para/ampharos,
LS: TerRaine, Vaimes,
S: Tom,

At this point in the game, as you can see, the LS read I had on Ter at the point she replaced out put her square in my bottom 3. And Jari's slow opening didn't increase that, and as I mentioned later, I also had a light non w/w on Ter & Vaimes, which I had referenced wrt to being less concerned about Vaimes as I dropped Jari/Ter slot on D2.

This is also the first post I really spoke about the Sloth/Cuth non w/w read I was carrying. That read came out of a hard gut read of Cuth's #130, which I considered virtually never coming from Cuth if he was partnered w/ Sloth.

(Incidentally I'm mad at myself because I had a note about Cuth's interaction with Fonti around post #138 that said, "hey this kinda feels like Cuth when he called correctly called out by Osieorb in that last game," and I complete forgot/disregarded it later.)

So as I mentioned in 1193, I had dropped both Cuth & Sloth slight after the NK, because of a gut feeling based on last game. What it had also done, was harden the feeling I had that the duo was more likely v/w than v/v. It was a gut read, which maybe was dumb to rely on, but there it was. And while Sloth had risen & Cuth fallen in my reads from late D1 to early D2, I still had Cuth slightly higher. It was these thoughts that lead to me repeatedly asking about (Regfan's and RUbicon's) reads on Sloth repeatedly. Essentially it was two pronged, 1) I was looking to try and figure out two spots with the one read, and then as I had Sloth lower I was surprised to see the reads on a player I was considering more likely scum of the duo.

#1502: Here's where I went a bit further into Cuth/Sloth and the first appearance of the "He feels different from last game." I probably put too much into a meta read on a player I'd only seen once, and who would be aware he was going up against me. What I primarily meant when I was saying that was, in the previous game I played with Cuth, he made a visible and active effort to appear towny & participating, and went after people when they tried to scum-read him for a rather inactive start, and later into the game fought to control the narrative. A lot of what I was seeing wasn't matching that. As I said in 1502, his D1 was ok-ish to me, and his D2 was lacking, but the issue was, in the way it was lacking, it didn't resemble what I had seen before. So I was simultaneously downgrading him, while saying to myself, "this doesn't look familiar." I think my confusion on that showed through to what I was writing.

Then next was the Sloth read. I had Sloth bouncing between null and FoS most of D1, raised him up overnight, then back down to null early D2. As I mentioned there were a couple things I didn't like including his interactions with Wisp after the fact, and then push of Fluff (cheap misyeet?), especially as D2 saw Reg pretty lock the spot town early in the day. The other part, which I didn't say was, given that I was expecting v/w from Cuth/Sloth, and was spinning my wheels on the my Cuth dilemma, plus not getting responses to my questions about Sloth, was really spinning my on both of them.

2001 came after I had been away from the thread for nearly 20 hours, got out of work early and popped in the final hour before deadline. I wasn't really caught up, saw the Cuth wagon which kind of surprised me, and my skim of the case Reg gave me didn't really move me very much. At which point I sort of fell back on my reads and voted for Jarizok.

2066: "maybe it's both" As noted, my Jarizok vote was effectively falling back on my own reads. While I certainly considered the possibility of scum!Cuth, I hadn't really considered the pair together, and hadn't even broken the Sloth/Cuth debate I'd been having. Then we got to the brink of Jari's yeet, and it seemed like he wouldn't even vote Cuth to save himself, which prompted my post. As I turned out, I was wrong on Jari, but at that second I got hit with a "damn Cuth really might be scum," and then after the flip reviewing EoD and the vote patterns, I kind of had my head in my hands, "ah crap, Reg was right" kinda thing.


As for Wisp, I had him a LS, mostly because of the small things I mentioned. Additionally none of the others I was really looking at early had drawn pressure, I and was a little held back by being stuck at work the last few hours before deadline.

 

I thought tom was town all game. It was super hard for me to work myself up to believing in that read despite everyone else (who mattered) saying it was wrong and even harder to then commit to the read to the point that I was willing to push the world. I don't really think Vaimes and I are comparable in our process or really anything about how we play the game.

Amy was confirmed mafia?

 

Taking a break for a mental reset, back in probably like half an hour and I'll work through the fonti reread and the post Waco just dropped.

 

Uh, you apparently didn't get anything that I said at all?

 

Effectively I'm here right now:
The Waco Kid
Wiisp,
Akina
TerR/Jarizok
Sloth
Rubicon
tom
Fluff/Regfan

Gemma,

Fonti, Dels, Cobalt,
Vaimes,


Amy
Cuth

I still think the final wolf is Vaimes. If that's wrong, I need to find 1 town in Fonti, Dels & Cobalt, which will be my task when I re-read in the morning.

 

EBWOP: I fat fingered a number in the long post. In the #2001 section it was 10 hours, not 20

 

Yeah Waco is incredibly town IMO.

Just read though his big long post about his thoughts on the game, and there's a lot of thought progressions and things in there that I think match up and line up with how he's been playing and viewing the game in a way that I think is completely unfakeable.

 

Gemma
Waco
Dels, Fonti
Cobalt
Vaimes

Might be at this?

Going to go do the Fonti re-reading / explanation for Gemma now and see where she ends up after that.
I'll probably try and look at Cobalt a bit more after that.