Mostly just fonti and Cobalt.

 

Eh, I don't know if I agree. I mean, I think I agree but I think it's weak. I think wolf!fonti is more likely to be aware of this type of thing than wolf!Cuth, can see her making that post as a scumcoaching / getting ahead of the curve type thing. I think as a wolf she probably would know here that Cuth is likely going down, if not today then the day after, in most cases, and I think it's soft enough for her to feel comfortable making it, has the potential for Cuth to spin something good looking off it and better that a wolf controls that interaction than a villager? I could be injecting too much of my own play into how I think she would have done that though I guess.

 

Have read your big wall on Fonti, and I think I agree. And a fair bit of it is what I came out of the reread thinking, and have mentioned in bits and pieces above. I'm just not looking at her play and thinking "this fits doing what scum needs to do to win the game", exception being maybe the treatment of Amy vs Tom during the claims but I think her reasoning for thinking Amy is legitimate is fair enough, and is logic that's just rather sound. And maybe her treatment of Vaimes today. But I think her D2/D3 type play, and in general her play around Amy/Cuth just lacks a 'they're working together / scum team are trying to do something' in a way I'd expect to see there. I've felt her tone, and what she's been doing all game (probably moreso since mid D2) makes a lot of sense coming from town here. But if there's anyone in this game that I'm probably more scared about tricking me here as town, or endgaming in a position like this as scum it'd be her in that I haven't actually played against Scum!Fonti before, and I think she's a very capable scum player.

I'm not sure how much I can talk to you about Cobalt, since out of everyone in the game I'm least informed about him re; re-reading and stuff, and don't think I'm going to go throughout another big reread of another player this day phase.

 

Okay, thanks, this is extremely helpful. I'm still going to run through the rest of her ISO but yeah, I think I'm okay to probably move on to Cobalt if there's nothing else in your reread you wanted to go over / things you thought were important about your read on her.

I think I probably have to digest a bit, figuratively speaking, before I end up with an idea of what the strength of my fonti read is, but I think I'm probably more back in the territory of "don't lynch her outside f3, probably not even then" on her, which I guess is kind of where you're at with Dels? I don't predict having issues with your Dels read, so like, provisionally I can just say I'm okay with him being in that spot too.

 

Yeah, her treatment of Vaimes today is kind of what pushed me to make that post earlier, it's very icky in worlds where he's a villager and the way she just came in and melded into the consensus the way she did felt, like, bad touch, but, I don't know. I'm probably overreacting?

Fair enough re: Cobalt, for some reason I thought you wanted to go over him in detail.

 

I guess if you feel super strongly about the Dels antialigns I would probably put him above fonti? So like

Waco
Dels
fonti
Cobalt
Vaimes

So I guess I'm still not really clearing fonti but I probably landed about where you are as far as killing Cobalt before her.

 

Alright I'm gonna take off if there's nothing else you wanted to go over before you die / game ends. If you have anything you especially want me to remember from your ISO in case we miss today let me know.

 

Gemma, I have a strong townread on you independently and it basically never had anything to do with Reg. The post you quoted where I said "trust Reg's read on Gemma and Fonti" was probably me just simplifying things to stay more concise.

 

Ok we don't have to quote that post anymore.

 

I may be using the phrase wrong. To me "on the nose" meant, like, if they're wolf buddies, he is really making it obvious there. It's just a big paragraph of defense on a buddy for some early day 1 stuff. It's very straight-forward w/w stuff. (The implication being I assume most wolves avoid things that are so clearly partner-y)

 

I didn't know it had been quoted any more. >_> I just saw it while catching up.

 

No I know I'm just cringing at myself.

 

Sorry. =( But I felt I needed to clarify that the thing you thought I was implying was 100% not what I meant to say.

Moving on.

 

Yes, apologize more.

(Joke.)

 

Yeah I get that, but I also came into today going at Vaimes after having said I'd be wanting to yeet Cobalt into the night. So I think it's very plausible she's just relooked at things as town and got to that. I personally feel like if I were scum in her shoes there I'd be probably not just joining on Vaimes now though, and more like, be setting up someone else that she can push/focus on in future days which doesn't feel or look like what she's done? But attempting to put how I'd play this as mafia to like Scum!Fonti is probably not a great idea haha.

I don't think I really have much more to add, I'm A-OK with this day phase ending earlier in that I won't be around much tomorrow.

I think you've got a clearer idea of where my heads at, and I think we're in the same spot re; Waco being town.

Hugs

 

I'm still catching up but in case you're about to dip out, Reg, did you ever respond to my thoughts on Waco in 3409 (tl;dr of it two posts later in 3411)

 

Yeah, I agree with that too.

 

Okay, so first off let me say: You guys know you are driving me crazy over Fonti, right? >_> Like. After days of being told she's a lockclear legacy read, now we're back to that?

And the reason for it is that Gemma felt Fonti's posts today were sort of "slimy" regarding her treatment of Vaimes, or that her heart wasn't in it or etc

But I actually totally disagree, I've really liked Fonti's posts today, probably more than I ever have all game. I feel like Fonti hasn't been locking herself in to anything, she's remained open-minded about all other players. She's been doing re-reads, and she posts things that look bad for everyone, but she also posts things that look good for them. It feels like a real solving process. And like she's not just trying to push a Vaimes yeet through without any doubts. There's an argument to be made that if she's a wolf, she's dealing with 6 strong townies so no duh she's gonna have trouble finding a confident push, but I still like it.

Her strongest posts to me today were:
3452
3511

These are the posts where she explains how she thinks Vaimes as scum could've been showing empathy to the misyeets, in a way that he didn't show on the days when he was voting scum / the days when scum were in danger. And where she explains that the reason Vaimes may have boiled down the Wisp/tom wagons to "people just voted them for exclamation marks/ playstyle" is because he's a wolf who genuinely felt "i don't know why town wagoned them, they're so towny".

These two posts are the best case against Vaimes in the thread imo, and are what make me feel the best about yeeting there today and believing the game likely ends with it. This is a genius case and reminds me of why I always thought Fonti is such a smart person. If she's town, she cracked the case here. (And regardless, her having this thought process seems hard to have faked) If she's a wolf, then bravo.

Anyway, with Fonti, if Reg left a 100% legacy read of "Never yeet Fonti" I would've almost certainly followed that, except maaaybe in f3. It sounds like it's not 100% now but it's still a "don't do it until maybe f3" so I guess nothing has changed?

 

Anyway, it looks like Reg has dipped which is unfortunate, but since I also won't be around for too long either, I'll say:

When I went into the Waco ISO yesterday, my hope was that I could lock Waco in as town so that I could feel comfortable having to turn on Cobalt tomorrow if the game hadn't ended, as well as be comfortable with being yeeted myself if it came down to it, knowing that Waco was safely cleared and that 3 yeets could win the game even if I was one of them.

I... came out that ISO finding more concerns than I expected, which I outlined. I have seen Waco's post responding to my ISO now and his explanations for everything make sense if he's town.

I want to be clear: I don't disagree with you that Waco seems really towny. When I read his post today (and many of his posts, especially yesterday), I just think "Wow this is so towny". So we agree. But where I'm not sure I agree is "in comparison to Cobalt, is Waco the townier one".

And that could just be because Vaimes is the scum and we're arguing about who is more likely scum between two people who are just obvtown. And that makes it really hard to debate it because I can't get past that mental block. I keep wanting to just say "We can agree to disagree" except if the game doesn't end, we literally can't because you'll be dead and I'll be in a tough spot of having to make a choice. So, Reg, if you do come back, could you write maybe a few more words about why you think, not that Waco is towny (because he is) but why he can never be a wolf? Particularly I'd like your thoughts on the points I tl;dr's after my ISO of him.

I'd also say that the Amy/Cuth posts you quoted where they give reads on Waco don't really strike me as clear anti-aligns. Like, they're decent posts that look like they could be reads on a townie, but I don't see why they're that strong? Gemma can respond to this (and really all of this post) as well since she agreed with you on those.

And to be clear, the reason why I'm stuck on this is because:

View it from two angles:

The "are their posts towny" angle, in which Waco's posts are really towny, and Cobalt's... are towny too, but in a vacuum yes I think I'd have to yeet Cobalt over Waco. Sorry Cobalt.

But the other angle is the gamestate angle I already brought up, specifically "how would a wolf have played this game", and I maintain that with Cobalt, the way he's played doesn't make sense as a wolf because he locked himself into static townreads on two players who he was told he shouldn't be wolfreading, and then blatantly pushed the tom thing in a way that would look bad, all day on day 4, and then is still defending me (a misyeet he needs) today and just generally not putting himself in a position to win (because he's saying to yeet Waco tomorrow, but if Cobalt is wolf then when we reach tomorrow, it's clear people would NOT yeet Waco, they'd yeet him), and hasn't been all game with how he treated Cuth/Amy wagons on the days they happened. Whereas Waco, I'm still able to see more of a scum narrative for how he's handled the game. Waco's explanation of how he handled Cuth can totally make sense from town, but it does fit as scum more than Cobalt's treatment of Cuth. (The static "he's different than last scumgame" and the overall lack of any major read there, even after Reg made the case, and even on day 3 when Cuth was the default wagon)

Basically, for Cobalt to be scum he needs to have just played the game in a way where his gameplan was never going to bring him success and still be doing so. And for Waco to be scum he'd need to be playing a really out-of-his-mind towny game and putting in lots of effort to have towny posts with great in-depth thought process. And I wish I wasn't torn on which I think is more likely, but I am.

I guess writing this up I come back to admitting that Cobalt is the more likely of the two, but maybe I just don't wanna admit that. I dunno. Help me see it more, if you can, plz thx.

 

I feel like I'm just always ships passing in the night with people this game and it's really annoying, partially due to lack of interaction and partially because I end up walling 10 posts in a row with no one to break them up. And it's somehow happened both when my sleep schedule was messed up, and when it's back to normal. I guess that makes sense because like everyone is Australian, but. Hrmph.