Well then that leaves us with one of two possibilities regarding mishie, either he's innocent or he's the Dark Lord. If we go with option one where does that leave us folks? The top three people I consider suspicious after him are KaiDASH, AtomicWalrus and INBN. I think one of them needs to be investigated tonight.

 

Well, the first objective is deciding on who to eliminate today. "Tonight" doesn't happen for another 12 and 3/4 hours.

 

Fair enough and to be perfectly honest with you I just do not have a clue as to who to go for today, mishie was the only one who seemed like a decent bet to me and if you say not guilty well then I'm out of ideas.

 

I heavily suspected that Fenraellis had investigated mishie, as acknowledged in my previous post. Still, that doesn't change my opinion that he may be a Dark Lord. The similarities between his case and Anarchy's case in the last game are too great to be ignored. Vira and jwlk are comparable to Xiph0 and Scrittore respectively [537].

There has to be reason for axing jwlk, especially after killing Vira. The Death Eaters had an entire day to think about it, for Pete's sake. jwlk's innocence, compared with Fenraellis's investigation, would have suggested that mishie is uppity-dippity clean. Hence, he's resembling the Dark Lord substantially.

Plus, we were going to lynch mishie if jwlk wasn't axed, right? A number people had expressed that sentiment during the last Day. However, now that he's "clean" because of jwlk's death, you're all backing away? Too convenient, too convenient.

This, of course, is assuming the a) Fenraellis isn't lying and b) the Death Eaters aren't batshit stupid/random/thoughtless.

Since my point still stands, I propose that we still lynch mishie. A bad lynch is still preferable to no lynch at all. Besides, we can afford to mislynch once or twice, with the demise of the Dark Wizard.

P.S. If mishie is innocent, then I have a pretty damn good idea of who's a Death Eater. Hence, another reason to lynch mishie.





EDIT- The tl;dr gist: Fenraellis's new information, which isn't really new to me anyway, isn't going to make me change my stance. I'm not going to rescind my vote because of the Auror's report.

Hence, I will not rescind my vote against mishie, unless there is a drastic danger of a split vote. Think and contemplate.

 

People are backing down because Fen just said innocent, I find it awfully suspicious though that you are still trying to get people to gang up on him after that. Even you are acknowledging that he might be innocent and yet you still want to kill him, I might have been willing to roll with it before Fen spoke up but now you wanting to lynch mishie this much seems stunningly suspicious.

 

I also agree lynching mishie is the correct decision at this point.

Scenario A) mishie is innocent - This puts the final nail in the coffin of Fenraellis being the real Auror, since if they were both on the same team Fen wouldn't say he investigated mishie and he was innocent.

Scenario B) mishie is a Death Eater - Fenraellis is also a death eater and gets lynched soon thereafter.

Scenario C) mishie is the Dark Lord - A Dead Dark Lord is a good Dark Lord.

To clarify; I think just taking Fen at face value as him being the Auror on Day 2 is a clear mistake. That's not to say I don't think he is what he says he is, but its stupid not to be cautious. The real Auror could be hiding because he's afraid to go against Fen and getting lynched, putting us in a very bad spot. That said, lynching mishie proves beyond a reasonable doubt Fen's credentials as our Auror, and if it disproves that we go a long way in beating the DE's. Either way I believe we are in a point in the game where we can afford this kind of lynch to verify something as imporant as this.


Vote Player: mishie

 

My thoughts exactly. We'd only face a problem if mishie held a pro-town Power Role, which is possible. However, the Death Eaters' killing of Vira and jwlk in succession is so incredibly fishy that I simply can't let this slide.


EDIT: Looking at his old posts, I now doubt that mishie holds a Power Role. The Power Roles are meant to lead the cavalry, albeit quietly. Mishie has barely posted, refused to bandwagon against Taure, and only has voted for ratstrub. If he's the Healer, Hit-Wizard or Warlocke, he hasn't done a very good job. Stay out of the spotlight (i.e. by actually voting for Taure when the Auror had claimed that Taure was a DE) and please actually lynch with us? Bandwagoning is good for us, at the moment.

If he has a Power Role, he really should have done a better job. I mean, the incriminating Vira vs jwlk debate wouldn't have started if it weren't for his behaviour in the first place. =/

 

Well, personally I don't think that mishie fits the Dark Lord mold... but that concept really doesn't mean anything at all. Anyone, vocal or nearly quiet, could be one. I was hesitant to actually reveal mishie, largely to further observe voting patterns, but I also knew that there was a decent chance of 'just enough' votes filtering in while I was out.

That said, it would be nice to catch the Dark Lord. Not having to worry about if my "not guilty" verdicts include a false one, would certainly be nice.

Aziraphale has a fair point, I guess >_>. As I pointed out in my earlier post, I haven't truly proven my position until I find a second guilty target.

All said, I certainly hope that mishie is the Dark Lord if this is followed through, since I don't want another innocent to die. Someone does have to die though, and with a theoretical(before reasoning) 25% chance of being right. I will certainly say that "Scenario B" is false. It will either be "A" or "C".

 

I actually can't see any realistic way we could have ended up with b in Aziraphale's scenarios.

Assuming hit wizard visited Taure on night one, he would have seen Fen visit or not visit. If Fen did visit, then either 1. He's actually the Auror or 2. He's the sorc (I don't think his being the healer or the hit-wizard is a possible outcome here).

If Fen didn't visit then either 1. Our hit wizard is a idiot (because if Fen didn't visit and claimed to be the Auror then the hit wizard should have outed) or 2. The real auror is an idiot (because the real Auror knows Fen is a fake auror, and potentially even the sorc if the hit wizard hasn't said anything is weird about Fen claiming auror status).

So, if Scenario A is true, we lose a wizard (not a game breaking loss but still bad overall) and Fen's status as auror is super-confirmed (but I think it's already 99% certain anyway based on lack of input from hitwizard/actual auror). If Scenario C (mishie is dark lord) is true, obviously we benefit alot, but I think this is least likely.

I'm not sure I want to vote for mishie at this point, but if nobody else has popped up as a good suspect in a few hours (ie: before i go to sleep) I'll put in a vote for mishie, since zeit said he had some ideas based on mishies guilt (hopefully not ideas about fen =p)

 

Mishie being guilty after clearance by an Auror has a probability of 1/13 ~8% (18 in thread, -3 other DEs, -1 Auror, -1 yourself).
If we just randomly lynch someone else we're at something like ~26% (18 people, 1 Auror, 1 yourself, Mishie being guilty chance see above).

Now, is there enough evidence that we can say Mishies chance of being the Dark Lord jumps from 8% to over 26% to make it better to kill him than a random person?
(That's ignoring other people who are more suspicious than average, then you'd need to be even more convinced to make it worth it.)

We could really screw ourselves right now by forcing the Healer or Hit-Wizard to reveal themselves to defend against an attempted lynching. Yeah, some people look suspicious just because they don't know how to act in this game - it doesn't mean they're actually guilty.

As long as the Auror is investigating and we have Healer and Hit-Wizard covering him, we have the upper hand and will be slowly whittling down the Death Eaters. By lynching people who kind of, somehow, with one eye closed look suspicious, we shorten the time we have for the Auror to find guilty people.
Unless we're at least sure enough that someone is more likely to be guilty than not (1) and not just a bit suspicious, we shouldn't lynch them because it doesn't give us any advantage.

Or did we get any good info on who's a Death Eater by looking at the voting patterns we have until now? Why are you so sure, it'll be different the next time?

(1) That means you would bet money on them being a Death Eater if you'd get back twice your bet if it's true.

 

It says that I was visited, that I tried to recall who it was and that I cannot remember anything.

Everyone else accusing me: This was the defense I went to because it was the most immediate - why the fuck would someone lie about getting visited if they knew the auror was going to come around a few minutes later and reveal them as a liar? The better defense, of course, would have been ignoring Hash as his accusations were pretty fucking retarded. If you're accusing me for Hash's reasons, roughly half of you should be under equal amounts of suspicion, with Zeitgeist under slightly more.

Everyone throwing accusations at me is looking pretty suspicious right now, because there is literally no goddamn reasoning behind it.

Honestly, with confirmation of an innocent, mishie's looking less and less suspicious, and this is coming from the first goddamn person to suspect him. I say we go after the people who've participated even less, because while pressure forced mishie to speak up a bit, there are still people at 1 post/day slipping under the radar, at least as suspicious as he's ever been.

I hate to say it, but it's starting to look like the DEs are that far ahead of us, and assuming that they're not is starting to seem bad.

I know, I know, I keep going back and forth on this. I don't have a genuine decision yet.

 

@Zeitgeist and Aziraphale
Your scenarios are kind of like someone who's living in an area that will be hit by a hurricane soon, wondering if his house is earthquake-proof and working on that instead.
It could happen, but it's not really the most likely thing to be dangerous in the future.

 

Alright, I'm going to have to get moving for the day so I'm going to make my point quick and run.

Between FP and Fen, I'm fairly certain that mishie isn't guilty. She doesn't really fit my idea of a dark lord, and I am fairly confident that Fen is the auror. Though I don't know, he could just be a DE playing a really elaborate game and the real auror might be waiting to collect more information before revealing themselves. But again, I doubt that. It would require a machiavellian DE side, and I'm not willing to beleive that our enemies are Aizen-esque.

So since mishie's ruled out, I'll look at my list o' suspects once again. I still think there's something to the low poster argument. So I'm going to vote for the one I think is the most suspicious right now. Maybe it'll just be a throwaway vote, but better to vote now then to miss another vote due to work.

Vote Player: MrINBN

I should be back before day end. If my vote can change something then, I'll change it.

 

Never assume stupidity. Assume guilt.

 

I've already disputed that, so I'm ignoring this.

... It was a fucking joke with a :awesome in it. Do you not understand that concept? And if I went back in time, I'd probably count it a couple of times at the most. Once when I found out and asked you to be sure(I think it was over one of those Israeli-Palestine threads) and in this thread are the ones I remember.

Honest question, were you upset I made that joke of lynching you because you're Israeli? I know we're not exactly good friends online or something, but I never figured you'd take it badly...

Bandwagon? I bandwagoned once on Rat and since then have supported killing HoS and told people I didn't trust them, which is something changing day to day as new deaths happen. Not much in terms of bandwagoning, and the second time I did 'bandwagon' for someone (HoS), he turned out to be guilty.

Please, everyone was so eager to kill Taure like they were getting free blowjobs for it because he was a mod, obnoxious in most threads, and his roleplay was annoying. Him turning out to actually be a Death Eater was luck of the draw. He was dying either way.

 

What? Are you a retard? He isn't a mod. Go back and revisit why I voted to kill him; I ascertained his flowery bullshit was their to misdirect us, much like your inflammatory crap is just here to take off the focus from the real point of this game.

Do you know how to read? I already said I don't entirely care where you are from and neither should you care where I am from, it has no relevance to this game. But since you asked, I don't give a shit? I "took it badly" because you suggested lynching me when I'm not a DE, so obviously (Incidentally, just like oh, I don't know, everyone else in the history of this game ever) I retaliated. Looks kind of weird if I get accused and go "Yeah come at me bros" no?

You're not here to play the game, you're just spouting random shit at random people, much like you do in every thread on these forums.

Tl;dr go fuck yourself I've pretty much had it with you

 

Huh. I always thought he was a mod.

What inflammatory crap? The same shit everyone else has done in accusing people?

It was a fucking joke. What part of that don't you get. There was literally no one who took it seriously besides you. I just asked you if you took it badly, and holy shit are you fucking aggressive to any sort of post I've made.

Yeah... this is just you bullshitting out of your ass. I'm as good as a contributor to this board as any. I'm writing stories, providing stories for review, reviewing other people's stories, discussing a variety of topics. How is any of that random shit getting spouted?

... Yeah, this quit being about the game and you just having a problem with me for no reason. Feel like taking this to PMs?

 

...I'm getting voted now? Yeah, okay. Whatever floats your boat, man. But I'm perfectly willing to be investigated at night to prove my innocence, and the hitwizard could tell you (if they ever followed me) that I've never visited anyone, nor been visited.

Vote Player: Vesvius

Turnabout is fair play, motherfucker.

 

I feel very suspicious of Hashasheen, and I'm just going to go with my gut feeling rather than joining some bandwagon.

Vote Player: Hashasheen

 

I just want to remind the people who are accusing me based on the fact that I didn't vote for HoS or Taure, is that in my very first post, I said I wanted to lynch Taure, but since we were all voting for rats, I didn't want to cause a split vote, and for HoS I said that I was suspicious of him. And as for why i didn't vote for them , it's simply because by the time I woke up and got on, they were already dead.