Well I just arrived home and only had time now to read through the posts and get caught up on the day's progress.
With the way things are looking it is hard to get any real read on scum so early and I think most of us will look suspicious at least early on.

Lump Vote: Ashaya

Simply because that seems to be the way the majority is heading and I am hoping the priest will do a quick check on whoever gets the lump vote early on in the game if not right away.

 

1. I think even a question like this that isn't directly for scum hunting is good, since it everyone see what people value (ie: some people thinking acolyte is good, or judge is good, or whatever!)

2. Yeah, well my question was kinda bad so whatever. What I was really trying to say is that having someone who doesn't want to be accountable for their actions (random? really?) get lump seems kind of silly.

-

Anyway, we have to try and decide what we want to do today regarding lynching. There are basically 3 (4 really, but the last isn't an option tbh) things we can do. Well, the first order is that we want to pressure someone (maybe 2 someones!) into saying a few things so that we can decide if we want to lynch them. After that one of the following things happens:

1. Someone gets Majority Lynhed!
2. No Majority - Judge lynch on one of the people we pressure
3. No Majority - Judge lynch on someone we didn't pressure
4. No Majority - Judge doesn't lynch anyone eitehr

Jas, Necrule, Pyracrys can you guys evaluate each of those events in terms of ev (expected value) for town? I'd like to let the new guys have a try first before other people answer!

 

Lump the Loyal Panda travels through the underbrush, lumbering along through the forest on his way to the Town to visit his best friend. He made good time today, and will be there by the end of the day!

Lump sniffs the air, finding a random patch of Chinese bamboo strangely growing in the woods, and hunkers down for a snack.

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Current Lump vote tally:

Ashaya: 5 | Ashaya, Irene, KaiDASH, jas, Fenraellis
Fenraellis: 4 | Kensington, Rehio, jslk, Castiel
Necrule: 1 | Necrule
Lungs: 1 | Lungs

9 Votes needed for majority out of 17. 11 Votes have been cast. 6 Votes remain.

Note that abstaining from voting is a perfectly acceptable option. If no majority can be reached by the end of Day 1, Lump will be awarded to the player with the most votes to their name.

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Current Lynch vote status:

Lungs:1 | KaiDASH (D)

 

I'd say detective, vigilante, and dame.

Detective cause he knows the position of players who were killed. Coupled with the priest, its a formidable force.

Vigil cause we only know for sure we mislynched if he killed someone.

Dame because of the powers of extra life. Done correctly, a powerful player such as priest or vigil could avoid getting killed once. Could help us a huge amount.

 

LUMP VOTE:Fenraellis

Mainly because it leads to a lump vote tie and I would like to see who the other people vote for.

The three most powerful postion are probably the

Vigilante- because of obvious reasons

Acolyte- because as KaiDash said finding who the most important role is awesome.

Judge- because he/she can use turn the game around if the player is smart enough.

 

Er. I don't really know at this stage. I'll just answer what I think it would mean.

1: Majority lynch: Means the person is real suspicious. Probably good for town. That is, unless the witches do a good job of acting innocent.

2: Judge lynch on pressured person: Probably the same as a majority lynch, except that this is based on one person's suspicion. It would depend on who the judge is.

3: Judge lynch on non-pressured person: Again, based on one person's suspicion. But the witches probably would figure the judge is a smart person, because lynch is usually done "beyond a reasonable doubt".

4: No lynch: Reasonable doubt/confusion. Probably the most neutral circumstance.

 

In reply to DASH (since I have yet to figure out how to quote only parts of a message with the link to the original post), I believe that all those scenarios are dependent on a few things.

Scenario 1 is ok, because we keep the ball rolling and do not waste a day. Inevitably at least one of us will die in the night phase unless we get an Angel protect, which will whittle our numbers if we do not try and lynch too.

Scenario 2 and 3 are both dependent on how competent the judge is in regards to aming a call on who to lynch.

Scenario 4 seems the worst option.

Do not forget about vigilante kill though.

Will post more but I have to go for now.

 

Kai, the three major town roles?

As I stated, vigilante. That's self-explanatory but I'll quote it for you.

The Judge is important too. The judge should be the person who calls who to lynch and makes the vigilante effective by ensuring the lack of no-lynch. Every lynch has a purpose so with the judge being the person who can greatly affect the game (If judge lynches a witch it'd be massively in favour) so yeah.

And of course, last but not least, the detective is possibly the most under-rated player in the game (Just because it's a new role doesn't mean it's not important, guys. In fact, it's a counter to necromancer, one of the most potent witch roles for a reason). Seriously, the witches' lies can be called out by the detective and in combination with the priest, the couple is the most dangerous/poses the most threat.

But all these power roles can do nothing without the rest! So I'm trying my best not to be a retarded townie. As we should all strive to be in order to win this game!
In conclusion: Everyone's important.

 

[intrudes]

I feel I should point out that KaiDASH commented on the observers QT for the last game that he didn't play it quite play it straight, and Lutris made a point to put into the Vigilante description this time:

So yeah, in that sense, scenario four is bad not just because it is, but also because it disrupts the cycle by which a Vigilante can perform their role.

As for quoting a partial message, select the quote button, then delete what you don't need from the message? Unless you meant multi-quoting a message, which is a bit different.

Anyway, despite the temptation to stay up all night, and until this evening, with maybe a slight nap during the day... I think I'll go to sleep after all. I've loosely been in-thread since it opened around nine hours ago. It's already a quarter after five a.m. here at U.S. Mountain time, so I'll see you guys in about seven hours at around noon. Hopefully the other five(six?) people get their votes in. Timezone differentials make things tricky.
[/as you were]

 

Just to see if this works. Tried something similar and it failed for me once before haha.

To add on to my earlier post, Judge kills are quite a neutral situation for the town because we become very reliant on the ability and thinking of a single person. Overall, it is not a situation we as the town should get too reliant on but it does prevent a No Lynch day which is a plus.

Scenario 4 is quite bad as we go without any real attempt at removing the witches from the game. However, it is not all bad, as we also slow the removal of pro-town roles if we would of mis-lynched. This is only useful in day1 and/or 2 I think. After that it becomes too much of a drawback to be a sensible option. In day 1 and/or 2 it at least allows us to try and get a better read before we begin our purge of the town.

 

In terms of badness, I'd rank it as 4 (WORST) >>>>>>>>>>>>>> 3 (pretty bad) > 2 (pretty good!) > 1 (the best!).

Why is this? Because if we reach a majority lynch, it is easy to see who had what opinion regarding this lynch, and looking at vote patterns is one of our best tools to find scum!

Lynching someone is pretty important for a few reasons, which I'll say after necrule has replied too (or in the morning irl time for me)

I really just wanted to get it on the record (before I go off to sleep) that pressuring a few people then picking one of them to majority lynch is the best thing we could do atm.

If Necrule doesn't reply to this in the next few hours I guess this question (about lynching) is free game for anyone to answer if they want to.

 

I may be over-reading stuff again, Kai, but, isn't it rather easy for the witches to fake vote patterns? If so, vote-pattern may not be that reliable.

I may be wrong though, since you're the expert and I trust you, but can you just clarify this point? Thanks.

 

Posting again so soon since I'm going to take a shower then go to bed. Also. Aziraphale. Post in the game, you cunt. I've got 4 people waiting in the wings for a spot. I know you're online now.

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Lump the Loyal Panda finds a crazy squirrel with reddened eyes and a foaming mouth. He decides to call it Irene because she said that my Lump scenario was shitty in IRC. Lump grins as only a panda can, and stomps the fucking squirrel dead.

Little does he know, the real Irene is still alive and kicking in the Town.

This is me with my frowny face, Irene.

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Current Lump vote tally:

Ashaya: 6 | Ashaya, Irene, KaiDASH, jas, Fenraellis, Vira
Fenraellis: 5 | Kensington, Rehio, jslk, Castiel, Klackerz
Necrule: 1 | Necrule
Lungs: 1 | Lungs

9 Votes needed for majority out of 17. 13 Votes have been cast. 4 Votes remain.

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Current Lynch vote status:

Lungs:1 | KaiDASH (D)

 

Not exactly sure who to give Lump to, but I guess I'll give it to Ashaya because... I dunno, I just feel like it.

Lump Vote: Ashaya.

So, we going to lynch anyone today? Or are we just going to wait for tommorow?

 

#4 is a no go. With Detective around, lynching is good for the town even if it is a blind lynching.

#1 is good for the reasons you stated.

#2 is best because it gives the Priest some efficiency in their choices. They could check the other lynch target or the people who voted for either side. With the lynch vote split, one of the lynch bandwagons should have a higher Witch ratio then could be found in the lynch bandwagon in the #1 scenario.

Assuming the Priest picks the right Bandwagon to investigate.

---------- Post automerged at 09:12 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:12 AM ----------

#3 is meh. Forgot to add this.

 

I'll be abstaining from giving anyone Lump.

So far, Ashaya and Kai have both struck chords with me, though I can't quite say why yet. I will try to expand on this as the game goes on.

 

May I ask the two lump-candidates a question before I cast my vote?

Ashaya, Fen: could you tell us a little about how you think the witches are likely to handle the person who gets lump? How long do you expect to survive? And, if you could, don't look at what the other has answered before writing yours up.

 

I think that they are likely to kill me, but they're likely to kill me no matter what. I mean, shit, I died first night last game! I don't expect anything, but I know I won't last until the beginning. I will say this to the witches, though: you should use your kill on someone else, because people are bound to be suspicious of me, and because I have a shit role.

Also....700th post. Suck on that, Jon! And you thought my 700th post would for sure be in the Hotties thread!!

 

KaiDASH: Sorry - I read your vote to lynch Lungs as I was falling asleep, and when I'm half awake my reading comprehension lacks. I still think you're sorta suspicious, but I no longer think you're a lock-in for a witch.

I'm probably going to regret this immensely (priest - please investigate her), but...

Rescind Lump Vote: Fenraellis

Lump Vote: Ashaya

Now, for who to lynch. Beyond Kai, no one is really sticking out to me. I'll probably hold off for a few more hours before making an executive decision.

 

Well, for what it's worth, I was going to avoid reading Ashaya's post, but she was directly after you.

Anyway, I think there are two most likely scenarios and I mentioned one of them in my previous post:
Scenario 1 ~ Witches Night Kill the Lump owner on night 2 or 3, based on the presumption that Angels will almost assuredly protect them on at least Night 1. That is, if we actually get our act together and someone is lynched, otherwise the lack of an Angel will probably result in a Night 1 kill of the Lump owner.

Scenario 2 ~ To try to save a Night Kill for use in a different way, they attempt to frame the Lump owner in-thread to get lynched as early as they can, possibly avoiding Day 1 as it would probably appear too suspicious to suddenly implicate their target aggressively. Like I said earlier, with Lutris last game this tactic failed, so I think that Scenario 1 is somewhat more likely.

Well, maybe it should have been! Also, looking at your signature now and thinking of Vira's comment of voting for who has the cutest signature is an amusing thought. Cute may not be the right word, but it is something.