So...Matt's got a 1 in 3 chance of being the scummiest scum to ever scum. Awesome.

 

One could say it's unlikely based upon reasoning, but it's (statistically) just as likely that Dhulli was the BoD and MattSilver just got lucky... so he has a one in four probably chance of "being the scummiest scum to ever scum."(and in that particular case, could be anything) I kind of doubt that though, which leaves him with the aforementioned one in three chance realistically.

--Of course, there are the two extra unlikely chances that are a stretch, but still possible. First, somehow, inexplicably(or the mentioned Acolyte-Priest connection, but that's a stretch within a stretch) MattSilver was targeted by both the Angel and the Witches, despite his lack of a significant presence. Alternately, they are both Witches and it's a ploy, and MattSilver was both Angel-protected and Night-Kill targeted, to give MattSilver implied innocene.

I can't really say if, or fully agree, that's a suitable reason to kill somebody though, even if it's the closest 'lead' we currently have. After all, he is more likely innocent, than he is guilty, even if he is the only 'known' possibly guilty target. Unless someone else has any good ideas.

 

Yeah, I'd like to move on from Matt and focus on other things. I'll keep my eye on him, but I think it is pointless to keep talking about this, unless you guys think he is scum. Doesn't make much sense to me, personally.

 

Dhulli being the BoD and lynching himself sounds like one hell of a motherfucking longshot, and the idea that we should just ignore this makes me wonder if you're scum or just StarWars-ing all over this shit.

 

Unless Matt comes out and explains himself, we really have no option other than ignoring this.

---------- Post automerged at 02:23 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:23 PM ----------

*ignoring this FOR NOW.

 

Fiat, I wasn't implying it was any more likely, merely that it was technically just as likely as the Witches randomly targeting someone with protection. Anyway, you should know by now that I prefer to consider all the possibilities that I can think of, since even the most unlikely one does have the chance of being the truth.

 

Fenraellis, I do not think this is possible. The Witches could not have known, since the Occultist gets the information only AFTER the Night Kill has been made.

 

No, it's possible - but not probable.

 

It is entirely improbable, we have established, that the Witches just happened to target the Protected player. The Witches using this as a ploy, however, is not possible. I apologise if my meaning was not clear.

---------- Post automerged at 07:45 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:43 AM ----------

Did you mean about dhulli? If so, there is no way to prove innocence without a Vigilante Kill or Detective reveal. But that is even more unlikely, for reasons others have stated during the first Day.

My apologies.

 

Once again, it's possible that they decided to kill one of their own people and for some reason Matt was protected. However, why the fuck would Matt be the protection target? More than that: why the fuck would they do that in the first place - without knowing of any protection, it seems pretty retarded. Hence, while possible, it's damn unlikely.

 

True and true. But MattSilver aside, people are calling for a move on. I would suggest we do just that.

---------- Post automerged at 08:19 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:08 AM ----------

MattSilver: We've got our eyes on you.

 

So, on another topic as people are - for some fucking reason - intent on changing the subject: why aren't more people talking?

In an attempt to induce some sort of conversation, I'm pulling a card straight from Zeit's book of "annoying and extremely scummy shit."

Who do you think is the most important role in this version of the game (naturally excluding the Priest)?

 

On this I would give two answers, the Mad Scientist and the Judge. I will put in something about the Detective, too.

Judge: Just like Irene is Irene, the Judge is the Judge and the relative importance should not escape anyone. This is especially so when considering the Lynching powers of the Judge penetrating the Enchantress' Protection by the Lovers. However I must state this, at the end of the game, if the Warlock or Thrall survive to use their Soulless Zombies, then the Judge loses his importance then.

Mad Scientist: Probably the more important, if I were to choose one. The power is similar to the Priest, only that the Mad Scientist must think much more in order to figure out the alignment of players. More importantly, none of the Witches obtain the information which the Mad Scientist obtains, allowing for a blindside against the Witches and Warlocks.

Detective: One more I will mention. The revelation of the Detective is both helpful and hurtful to the Town. Helpful, in the sense that the Detective can reveal information helping the Town to deduce accurately the knowledge required at the time of reveal. Hurtful, because the Witches, with their Necromancer, are able to figure out the roles and identities much quicker, possibly. The Sacrifice Spirit can be used that night (and perhaps on the Assassin) just to Kill the more important players. The Warlock may also start to Soulsteal if roles are revealed, adding to the casualties.

 

To me, the most important role is probably the vigilante. It's very hard to get a good lynch mob going, and it's even harder to get one going against someone who's actually scum, because even if the scum aren't white nighting their own they aren't contributing to the mob. The Vigilante bypasses all that and just takes someone out.

What's your answer to your question Fiat?

 

Thanks for asking. Forgetting to do so was a pretty big fuckup.

Excluding roles like Priest/Acolyte, I've got to go with Mad Scientist. It's an inferior priest, but it gives us a second investigative role which provides a second line of defense in the event that A) the actual priest is killed or B) the actual priest is incompetent (we all know that it can happen). Vigilante takes a close second, because...well, Zeit explained better than I could simply by playing in the first TinyHunt.

 

Guys, I'm at another fucking debate tournament. Don't expect too much input in the next two days (especially if I do well, and get into elimination rounds). I get home at 12:30 am and wake at 6, since it's a national tournament at a local venue... By local I mean that it's in the Bronx High School of Science and I live in Brooklyn. Don't know why I bother, sometimes. D8

 

I sent the people who have yet to post today a message on their QT. This is the only official notification you will get prior to being replaced and/or modkilled (unless you have a reason, if you do, please say so).

-

Also, it's come to my attention that a few things in the rules aren't internally consistent with how the game works (from QT's and etc) so here are the before and after versions. Note that there are no actual changes here, everything already worked this way! (new text is in bold)

Angels

Protection (In glossary)

Check (In glossary)

Night action list

Traveller (IN FAQ)

 

Good luck with debating, Lungs. I've got a similar thing coming up next weekend and it's always pretty awesome.

Mildly on topic: anyone have anything to share?

 

In regards to Matt, there's a very simple way for this to be sorted, we have the priest check him. Obviously he doesn't come forward to tell us as until the thrall is dead, but thing is though, right now we can be fairly sure that Matt isn't a witch. So the way I see it, we should move on and look at what else has happened.

Something else that I noticed, I think the reason why Matt was chosed as the night kill target is due to the fact that he and Jon were the two who were going for Mayor the most, as such either a) Jon isn't scum and they're trying to make him look suspicious later on, or b) Jon is, and they're going to later say that the witches were just trying to make him look bad.

 

Sorry, I am late again. Just read the entire day's events.

The two scenarios I think are more likely are:

dhulli BOD
Matt Warlock

All other scenarios are complex (why would dhulli save Matt who lynched him, the dhulli and Matt are scum scenario is a long shot, them being priest and acolyte is of lesser probability as well).

I don't think we have anything more to work on until we see who gets killed tonight. Question is, what do we do about today's lynching?