I'm kinda torn, but I echo Silens's suspicions on Gaebe, and at the same time I'm thinking one of Vira and Irene are scummy scum pondscum, and at the same time as THAT I'm thinking that everybody else could also be scum, and I have no clue. I'm kinda looking forward to some TL;DR's to sway me... So, yeah, go town, let's rock this shit.

 

I'm not sure if you wanted me to overreact, Jon, but that's not really in my nature. History would tell you that much at least. I certainly don't want to die, but I honestly don't know why I was targeted last night since, as mentioned, I have been less active than usual lately in the thread, and forum in general.

Anyway, while I appreciate the mod-confirmation of my innocence in SW2, Vesvius, I was a Witch in the disastrously-amazing last game, LessTinyHunt. As Lungs said, random is as random does.(aside from those who may have opted out of the pre-mentioned roles, I suppose) Anyway, after the way that last game went, I'm not sure that I would want to be in that position again. Especially against Irene. With what will hopefully be our glorious against-the-ropes victory in Star Wars 2, as with the first TinyHunt, there is something to be said for that kind of successful justice against the odds.

Anyway, Jon, while I have a good idea of why you might feel so adamant about my potential guilt, but won't say anymore about that, I'm not sure what else I can say for you. If nothing else, I'm just as likely to be innocent or guilty as MattSilver. For whatever that's worth... and I hope he isn't guilty, since that doesn't really help my case.:facepalm

 

We're as guilty as each other, no doubt.

 

Time for the threadly tl;dr NON-accusory post.

Firstly, there was a vigilante kill last night? What does that tell you? That BOTH dhulli and Lknee are definitely pro-town (Not probably) so that is no longer an assumption.

See above.

Assumption 1: Lknee and dhulli will let emotions cloud their protection target in warlock. What if that doesn't happen? What if the protection was on Fen, who at this point has been the more town-ish figure? As you said, I'm pretty ineffectual. Why on earth will they waste protection on an ineffectual target with such knowledge?

Assumption 2a Witches are the ones targeting Fiat.
Assumptino 2b Witches target the most bloodthirsty one, who can be easily lynched because people who are bloodthirsty are rather under suspicion...

Refer to Assumption 2a Building on 2a. Though I agree it seems more obvious to target Geabe, he has expressed suspicion of Fen. He could have wanted to confuse the witches by choosing the less obvious target.

Assumption 3 Vigilante attacked Lutris. ----> Implying Lutris is a) Not targetted by witches b) Not the target of either Assassin or DoB or other witches. Why? If Lutris is not scum, he's definitely a target for witches and assassin. If Fiat's Assassin/DoB I can see him killing Lutris.

Assumption 4: Fen is a target of Assassin or DoB ---> Not targtted by vigilante or witch. Again, why?

Lol wut. Assumption 5: Building on 4, Fen cannot be targeted by witch thus he's not traveller/warlock or targeted by vigilante thus he's not warlock?
Support.

See above. Both so clueless? Nobody else to protect? Please.

Geabe is fishy, yes, but really your hypothesis works like a whole slippery slope. If a is true, b is, and c, d, egf whatever the fuck will be true simply ASSUMING a is true, then assuming b is true....

You get my drift.

You assuming the witches consider you enough of a threat. And if they do, you forget they can pierce protection. Just sayin'.

Link back to Assumption 2. Also, why don't you buy him as warlock? Any reason you trust him over Matt? Or do you think we conveniently get 2 pro-town players unkilled two nights in a row?

Your most probable scenario includes Lutris being killed by vigilante, and you're not questioning that, so why is there a question here? 2 and 3 have Lutris-vigilante killed in common. The difference that you SHOULD question for 2 is why Lutris would kill Fiat over Fen. If Lutris is assassin, I won't be surprised if he's choosing Fiat.

Oh Silens. You've no doubt hit the right spots sometimes (With all the possibilities), but you're wrong other times. Nothing is completely one way or the other though, since unless vigilante claims (which will be stupid) I don't think anyone can know for sure.

 

So much happens while I am gone . Nothing much to say but, I agree with Jon.

Deadline Vote: Fenraellis.

Someone has to die, either Matt or Fen is scum, Fen seems more likely to me.

 

Oh, btw, 3rd kill can also be sacrifice spirit by witches. Or Mayor Kill. Just putting it out there.

 

I have had a busy day at work, my apologies.

This post is mainly for two purposes. The first, and foremost, is to respond to Silens Cursor. The second intention is to provide my analysis to the thread, and if I do say so myself, I have a systematic analytical method. This is not to say that others do not, however.

Before Warlock Hunt had started, I had noticed a discrepancy in the Kill order in Lesstinyhunt. I notified KaiDASH, on the chance that the Kill order did matter, and now I provide you with my query to KaiDASH and his response.

Geabe: Does the order of the Kills matter, in the Day post?
KaiDASH: Kill order has no significance in the day post.

I will provide an analysis in the later part of my post, and to clarify, I do not discount the setup theory.

Going on to "defend myself", as you put it, I believe you refer to the Deadline Lynch Vote I had cast upon Little Knee, and later rescinded. For this, I believe, is the purpose of the Deadline Lynch Vote, to either pressurize a player to enact a response, or to gauge the players on how suspicious they are.

You may read my analysis, and treat it as a part of my defense. If I have mistaken your intended accusation, please do inform me, and I shall reply adequately to your accusation.

I would have preferred this to be a discussion, however, not merely a singular post.

Jon's reply, though not quite as formally worded as I would have preferred, does bring out my thoughts on this matter..

Everyone is suspecting everyone other than themselves. This includes me, due to the fact that there are too many possibilities.

I shall move on to my analysis.

Here are the facts:
Fiat, Fenraellis, and Lutris were targeted.
Fenraellis survived.
Little Knee is confirmed not to be the Benevolent Old Dame.

Let us consider first, the possible methods of Killing.
1. Night Kill
2. Sacrifice Spirit Kill
3. Assassin Kill
4. Vigilante Kill
5. Dirty Old Bastard Kill
6. Mayor Kill

Now, let us consider the survival methods.
1. Traveler
2. Rogue Warlock
3. Survivalist
4. Mayor's Extra Life
5. Angel's Protection
6. Benevolent Old Dame's Protection

To debunk the non-possibility of Little Knee being the Benevolent Old Dame, it would be theoretically possible for the Witches to have used a Sacrifice Spirit to obtain two Kills, while the Vigilante's Kill would be wasted. KaiDASH, can you confirm this point?

However, such a possibility, while present, is not likely.

Leaving aside the Kills for now, We should now wonder why Irene, Vira, or Ashaya has not been Killed. Irene, to me, is more likely to be killed, and hence I shall focus on her. (This is so to provide an example, and not to ignore the other strong players. I do not know most of the backgrounds, but only that which I have seen in the Tinyhunt Games.)

As Jon as already mentioned, the Witches could have left Irene alive, knowing we would suspect her, due to her exceedingly powerful skills.

Let me, however, propose two other possibilities.
1. Irene is a Witch, and Witches do not risk Killing their own minority members.
2. Irene needs to be alive for another reason. and the only other reason I can think of is that the Witches' Enchantress requires protection, which would make Irene a Lover. In essence this also allows for a double-Lynch when the time comes.

I shall wait for a moment while you digest those possibilities.

Let me move on to the Kills. I first draw to your attention Fiat's Kill. Possibly this was done to draw attention to myself, as I am, as you may see, quite the rational player. Apologies for the self-praise.

Of course, you may think of why I am not mentioning the possibility of myself as a Witch. If I was a Witch, I will ask this: What advantage should I hope to gain by Killing Fiat? Perhaps the Assassin should have the obvious target, but again, Sacrifice Spirit may be used on the Assassin at a better time to target a player posing a greater threat.

Alternatively, the Mayor, Jon, could have killed, but that is very unlikely due to the fact that Little Knee and dhulli both appear to be Innocent.

The Vigilante could have targeted Fiat if the Vigilante was not as sharp as the majority of the players here. This is not likely as well, however. Fiat mentioned that he would Lynch dhulli for stupidity even if dhulli was the Priest, and a very unintelligent player could have taken that literally. Not very likely.


Lutris was Killed, again because he was rational, and perhaps more outspoken than I was. Alternatively, it could have been a shot in the dark by the Dirty Old Bastard or the Vigilante because of his differing behavior in this Warlock Hunt by not fighting against the Electoral Vote on himself.


Fenraellis survived, for one or more of the reasons stated above. Together with MattSilver, the two of them form two of the players who are unable to die at Night. There should be four players seen who can survive the Night if dhulli was the Benevolent Old Dame, and three if dhulli was a different role.


I am unsure of Irene at the moment, due to her prowess. Also, I am suspicious of Silens Cursor, for giving me only one post. This makes him sound as though as he has already made up his mind, and is simply looking to quash my defense and beginning a Lynch bandwagon on me.

However I do not mention my suspicions without a pinch of salt.
1. Irene, for reasons stated in my analysis.
2. Silens Cursor, for if he had wanted to Lynch me with a bandwagon, I imagine he would have cast a Lynch Vote on me.


I have to attend to the rest of my work. I shall be here again in approximately four hours.

If anyone finds contradictions in my analysis, or has something to add on, please, do mention.

---------- Post automerged at 03:58 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:56 PM ----------

I forgot to mention, my apologies.

Essentially the Assassin may well have been Little Knee, as it is a possibility.

---------- Post automerged at 04:02 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:58 PM ----------

I am sorry, Little Knee, I should have said, is a possibility, though highly unlikely. She sounds pro-Town to me, as I have stated.

I shall have to return to my work.

 

The BoD will stop all kills at night except Assassin/DoB kills. The witches can penetrate this by using Sacrifice though.

 

Alright, people. In response to both sections quoted above, Geabe is right. I am a lover. One of the two of us has the role that allows us to survive night kills (Traveler or Survivalist) and my lover is neither Matt nor Fen.

As such, it responds to both Vira and everyone else why I have yet to be targeted by the witches. They need me alive. And a double lynch of me and my lover is extremely stupid because you are sacrificing two town players to take down 1 witch player when you have options like judge lynch and DoB kill etc.

As such, the possible roles for both Matt and Fen has been narrowed down. Hope this information helps.

 

I'm sure they are both devastated.

More seriously, these are the survival methods, right?

1. Traveler
2. Rogue Warlock
3. Survivalist
4. Mayor's Extra Life
5. Angel's Protection
6. Benevolent Old Dame's Protection

One of these is Irene's lover (still loling at that, sorry :awesome), so either Matt or Fen (or both) has availed of one of the following:

Rogue Warlock
Mayor's Extra Life
Angel's Protection
BoD's Protection

I think it's been adequately covered here that the latter two are fairly unlikely. Yes, it is possible that the angels chose to protect Fen. Irene, you said that the Angels might think rationally and see Fen as the likeliest person for their protection - do you really see that of them? I don't. While I agree that they might see things logically, I think they might come to a different conclusion - my guess would still be you, but I admit that they might not have picked you. I see no reason to believe they would choose Fen, however, imo the other options are more likely by far.

Rogue Warlock
Mayor's Extra Life

I'm not sure how pro-town it would be for Jon to reveal who he gave his extra life to (it could well mean a failed night-kill) so I won't ask him to do it. If he hasn't given it to one of these two, however, it seems quite likely to me that either Fen or Matt is the Rogue Warlock.

Of course, this is probably full of holes too. Feel free to shoot it down, Irene (or anyone, really).

 

Irene... not especially trying to defend my case, personally, and no offense, but are we supposed to believe you outright? Unlike the Hopeless Romantic, the Witches innately know who both lovers are, yet you opt to hide that information from the rest of the town, when the other lover can easily correlate your story? On the off-chance you are hiding the information due to consideration of the Rogue Warlock, it just as well seems like it could be an attempt to only lose one Witch(whichever one had Sacrifice Spirit used, if it is what happened yesterday to insure kills despite potential protections) if your possible gambit fails in such a circumstance.

Of course, if they did do Sacrifice Spirit, it would probably have been with the Enchantress, so the 'need you alive' argument is bunk. I'm more convinced now, that either Dhulli or LittleKnee was possibly the Benevolent Old Dame, since as pointed out, I doubt I was randomly Angel-Protected. Which one of the two, I can't really say, but it feels more likely to me. Although, if so, I do wonder why I was targeted by either the Vigilante or Mayoral Hit Squad. Since said Sacrifice Spirit would allow the Witches to kill me regardless of any possible reason for night kill protection.

All that said, it's true that you are likely either guilty, a lover, or merely a scapegoat, and the latter is not mutually exclusive to either of the former. Either way, some more confirmation is required if you want us to more easily trust you. I'll be back after my class in a few hours. Hopefully, by then you, or your supposed lover, will have provided such?

 

I'm typing this on my phone in a hospital waiting room- my sister's here and I'm more than a little scared, so you'll have to excuse the foul mood.

Irene, you haven't provided the slightest iota of evidence to why the angels wouldn't protect you over Fen, and frankly, your reveal that you're the lover is absolute bullshit until we have independent verification. And on that note, I remain convinced that Fen is probably the survivalist, simply because if he was the warlock, he would be dead by now.

And frankly, Irene, I've given you the benefit of the doubt, but my patience is pretty fucking shot right now. I trust my information and my analysis, so if the other lover doesn't come out and it's not verified in some way, we should lynch anyways just to make the enchantress vulnerable.

Geabe, your arguments are distracting and don't have a logical progression, and frankly, your defense of Irene as the lover comes across as an attempt to draw attention from yourself. As such, you remain at the top of my shit list.

At this point, I really think Matt needs to be investigated, because if my conjecture is correct, he's the biggest warlock suspect.

 

Of course not. After all, in a game like that, when you volunteer information you'll be suspected always. Why do you think people don't volunteer information? (Like the fact that I'm a lover) Oh wait. Because of people like you. No offense taken, though, Fen, I'm sure it's all in the interest of town. Your brain simply cannot process all the logical and plausible evidence in front of you. I understand.

Also, I love how your post starts out so altruistic and polite (IT'S FOR THE TOWN NOT ONLY FOR ME) then degenerates into hostility. But we'll come to that later.

Look, what did you want us to do? Oh, I know! Day 1 reveal: Hey guys, we're lovers, don't kill us!

Seriously. Look at what you are saying. You know who are the other pair that has 1 person that can survive lynches? Yes, warlock and thrall. Do you have idea how suspicious a day 1 lover reveal is in such a game? That's not to say you can't accuse me of being warlock or thrall now. But your suggestion of not hiding at all is off.

Firstly, the witches don't even know our roles, they only know we are lovers. If we publicly reveal ourselves the entire town would require some proof that will no doubt reveal our roles somewhat. Which is why I had to wait to be pushed for my lover reveal.

Also, if, like you suggest, I am a fake, why did the real lovers not reveal themselves? They are both certainly alive now, there was no lover lynch. And if that is the case, why on earth would I want to risk fake-claiming while they can both counter-claim?

,

Well done. And the witches, who have no doubt chosen me exactly to keep me alive such that as enchantress dies unplanned in-game I will be more suspicious than anyone else and hence my accusations will not hold.

Okay, so NOW your theory is one is an extra kill and the other was NK'd and you were attempted to be killed by vigilante/mayor?

Why the sudden change of mind? Why in the flying batman will the witches give up a role that will make our lives so difficult in trying to lynch? Also, if Dhulli was BoD, why on earth will you be protected? Why will witches use sacrifice on tonight of all nights?

Why would you be even alive if you're targetted by vigilante? Remember that I have said that I know who one of the pro-town survivalist or traveler are, so that leaves you with three choices, 2 of which are scum. Chances don't look so good. Do you not see the hole in this theory? And most of all, even you can't imagine why vigilante or Mayor hit Squad would target you.

Look, my other lover does not want to be reveal. Do you think I'm hiding the name for fun? I cannot reveal the identity of my lover until the person approves or posts to reveal himself. As for confirmation, you can ask the mayor if he has sent any killers after you.

I think at this point your little 'theory' is based on so many circumstances that a) The real lovers won't reveal if I'm fake b) The witches are willing to sacrifice enchantress so early in the game (Or even any witch role) and c) I'm taking such a gambit when almost everyone except Vira has decided I am not suspicious enough to lynch and d) That I would draw such attention to myself when I'm scum and already suspicious and I can go on but I won't since I've made my point.

In fact, to me you just seemed more scummy. Now is your turn to defend yourself, Fen.

@Silens

Why would Fen be dead by now if he's a warlock? There is no evidence of thrall dying and no evidence that either Lutris or Fiat were DoB/whatever that targeted him.

Brilliant. After my previous post pointing out every single assumption you've made you have zero response to that and choose to still stubbornly believe you are right.

And you are suggesting the most -ev town thing ever by having not one, but TWO pro-town roles killed to make a role that may have been SACRIFICED vulnerable. And that's not even talking about us having NO IDEA WHO ON EARTH THE ENCHANTRESS YET.

I'm typing this at 1am, so excuse MY foul mood when Fen almost demands my answer for his convenience before he returns.

Jon, I'm calling you in to prove that you did not send any hitman to fen last night, and I want to see Silens and Fen defend themselves for a change.

Kai, do not lecture me about keeping it nice. Silens outright attacked me using swear words and I have used all my restraint trying not to curse at any of them, so if you still have objections you can deal with them until after I return from school.

 

Jon, I have... no idea what to say. I'm touched? Honestly. Just... Yeah.

In everyone else's face: I would flick you the finger but I'm nice so I won't. Now can we PLEASE move on.

 

Well, presuming we can trust Jon, this removes Irene from the equation - which is effectively what I said initially because, despite my foul mood, I did presume her innocence. However, I still am convinced that dhulli and Little Knee attempted to protect Irene last night as angels - it just logically makes sense, from what I know of them as players and characters, particularly if they're both pro-town. Also, it would be a good thing if Irene would speak up if we're going to lynch her lover and thus kill two people at once (and I would hugely appreciate the irony if Lungs was the lover, btw).

But on that note, I still don't trust Geabe, and frankly, if my conjecture is right, I think Matt's the biggest candidate for Warlock right now - and frankly, I'm going to be suspicious of anyone who still calls for us to lynch Irene until absolutely necessary (sorry, Irene, you may have to die at some point to bring down the Enchantress).

Matt, care to defend yourself?

 

(Yes, this is long, but it is so by necessity to cover everything brought up.)

Well, apparently this happened, so I couldn't make it to my class on time, and I'm home early... sort of(by about thirty minutes, since even coming home was delayed)

Anyway, I'm just going to give a response, rather than point-by-point quoting, if you don't mind. It's rather pointless(no pun intended) most of the time, over a single comprehensive statement, and not really necessary for me to do anyway, since I'm not referencing multiple people's statements. Although, if you could refrain from the personal attacks, "Your brain simply cannot process all the logical and plausible evidence in front of you. I understand," that would be preferable. I'm not even sure where you got that I was being hostile, rather than moderately suspicious and requesting confirmation at the most. Such is hardly a demand or should be perceived as particularly hostile or threatening for an innocent. If anything the hostile one is definitely not me.

So, yeah. I'm honestly not sure what to say, considering that, but I'll try to defend myself, so to speak.

First off, I never suggested that the lovers should have revealed themselves right off the bat, or ever role-revealed at all, merely that if you were going to claim yourself as a lover, it would make the most sense to reveal both yourself and your lover's names. My reasoning is that the Witches know who you are(I never even mentioned roles, since that's irrelevant), and if you don't role-reveal you are not going to be threatened by the Warlock faction either.

Aside from that, I already gave provision in my post that if the Enchantress already used Sacrifice Spirit, then it really wouldn't be a harsh blow for the Witches for them to make a fake-claim and potentially fail, since they had lost their power already. It really goes either way.

Yes, that is exactly my theory. The only other alternative being that I was targeted by a non-piercing kill(be it Night Kill, or Vigilante, since presumably it wasn't the Mayor as he said) of some sort while I have protection, and the other deaths were a non-protected Night-Kill/Vigilante-Kill and a resultant Dirty Old Bastard kill. If Sacrifice Spirit was used, then I obviously wasn't one of the targets, or I would be dead. In that case, it would have to have been the Vigilante that targeted me, or else the Mayor is corrupt.

As for the Enchantress being the most likely to have Sacrifice Spirit used, well I already explained it, but I'll extrapolate. Quite simply, the Demon, Necromancer and Occultist have more useful abilities, and it couldn't have been the Assassin, because of the extra kill. Also, there was no change of mind, since the possibility of either Dhulli or Little Knee being the Benevolent Old Dame, doesn't directly invalidate my previous guess.

Technically, I am left with three, possibly four (or six) choices. Either I am one of the other three roles(two if the Enchantress used Sacrifice), was Angel Protected, was protected via Benevolent Old Dame(either this or the previous would allow me to be any role at all actually, and I suppose the same applies for MattSilver too), or even technically I could be the role that you claim is your lover. That said, I mostly believe your innocence, so I'll discount that option for your sake.

Lastly, since I suppose I must:
a) Maybe, maybe not. If nothing else, if you are fake, the lovers lose their value to the Witches if they do reveal, since they can potentially be eliminated to clear the Witches protection. Also, an Enchantress Sacrifice would largely eliminate the value of the lovers aside from being scapegoats, and a double-waste of a town lynch as well.
b) (see two paragraphs above)
c) I would hardly say that only Vira still considers you suspicious.
d) (see b) and if so, then as I mentioned, the repercussions of a fake-claim are hardly game-breaking for the Witches.

I do apologize for this taking so long, although not for being so long. I was keeping frequent tabs on the Star Wars thread, and quite frankly, the tone of your post is frustrating to read.

-----

On an unrelated note, Jon, why would you reasonably ask for Angel Protection after using your Mayor power? At this point, aside from not knowing your role, you just became a much lesser threat, thus less likely to be killed. That actually makes me more suspicious of Irene(and by logical extension, yourself), when I actually mostly believe her, even if I am frustrated by her.

 

It is very late and I wish to rest.

My arguments are that as they are: Possibilities. There are, as I have mentioned, many possibilities.

As for the Irene conjecture, I was searching for an explanation as to why the Witches had not killed her, knowing the fiasco of Lesstinyhunt.

I will post more later, when I find the time and alertness of mind.

 

Too many walls of text guys, way too many. As it stands, the longer the post, the more suspicious you become. At least as far as I am concerned. Worse than roleplaying. Those attempts were at least short. >_>


As to the suspects, for now, it's a toss up between Fen and Geabe for now.