You do realize the day ends in 5 minutes, right?

Anyway: Yeah. Fuck. I was really hoping jas would post a defense of himself.

I can't help but wonder why jas would have started the lynchmob on Eternity Lost if he was scum. The only benefit I can think of is directing attention away from Xantam and Schrodinger, but they both voted to kill jas, which would seem to suggest they're not working together...

But we do probably need a lynch today, so:

Vote Player: jas

Please be a bad guy.

 

Day's Over. I'll do the tally in a few minutes. No more posting though.

---------- Post automerged 12-23-2011 at 12:02 AM ---------- Previous post was 12-22-2011 at 11:53 PM ----------

With a majority of 5 votes, Jas has been lynched! He was a......

VILLAGER

Final Tally:

Xantam: 1
Duke of Rothwood

Jas: 5
Xantam, The Great Pandemonium, Kalas, Schrodinger, Rubicon

Abstained: 3
coleam, Jas, disposablehead

Day 3 is now over, and Night 3 has begun. Day 4 will begin when the werewolves lock in their kill (or right before I go to sleep. Gotta call it an early night tommorrow).

---------- Post automerged at 08:22 AM ---------- Previous post was at 12:02 AM ----------

Night is over!

Kalas's body has been found. He was a....

VILLAGER

Day 4 has begun. Due to the early end of night 3, day 4 will be taking it's extra time. So you have until 11:30 PM EST on Saturday the 24th to reach a consensus.

Still alive: disposablehead, Rubicon, Duke of Rothwood, The Great Pandemonium, Schrodinger, coleam, Xantam

Dead: silverlasso, iLost, Eternity Lost, Yeagen, Jas, Kalas

7 people remain. 4 votes are needed for a majority.

 

Gee, thanks werewolves - you just eliminated the one person I was certain was a villager...
/sarcasm

And Jas was a villager, which was somewhat surprising. I say we lynch someone playing under the radar today since going after players that make scummy posts hasn't worked out too well so far.

The most egregious offender being The Great Pandemonium, who has basically stuck to the bare minumum (he did post twice on day 2) and has never even tried to respond to insinuations that he might be scum.

Duke of Rothwood hasn't posted much either (6 times), and has also been flying a bit under the radar. Like me, he's suspicious of both Schrodinger and Xantam, but I'm becoming less and less certain that they're scum, and the only reasoning on why he's suspicious of them has been a parrot of what others have said.

disposable head has 7 posts, none of them with much substance. Like Duke of Rothwood, he pegged onto Schrodinger and Xantam early and has stuck with them. So he's either very sure they're scum or he's scum (and therefore very sure they're villagers).

Rubicon has never really struck me as scummy.

Xantam and Schrodinger have had their scumminess beaten to death, so lynching one of them is another possibility, but both have had actions that would be uncharacteristic for scum.

We HAVE to hit a wolf today or on Day 5 if we want any hope of surviving.

 

Shit. Kalas was a big loss, even if his suspicions about jas were wrong. Maybe he was onto something with the rest of his big post.

Town reads: People I am absolutely convinced are pro-town.
Me: Town. I know it, even if the rest of you have questioned it at one point or another.
Colearm: Solidly town. Well-reasoned posts, and one of Kalas's biggest allies. One of our biggest assets.

Lurkers: These guys are suspect just because they never add enough to the thread to get a read on.

Duke of Rothwood:Voting habits are suspect
The Great Pandemonium: not much to say.

The Remaining 3:

disposablehead: I think he has to be our number one scum candidate at this point. His posts are always short, and not overly informative. Additionally, he always votes with Duke of Rothwood, which leads me to believe they are the scum team.

Rubicon: Also in the same voting bloc as disposablehead. However, well reasoned posts have me thinking you are probably town.

Schrodinger: Honestly, I have no idea. He is either very inexperience(much like myself) or a slight scum read. Not my prime suspect though.

I'm leaning towards disposablehead, but will wait for others to weigh in.

 

Posting a lot means involvement. They care a lot about the outcome. Villagers aren't interesting roles. We can talk, and try to find the wolves. The wolves, on the other hand, get to eat people. And in a split of 2 against 11, the two are going to be very invested, while the 11 will not.

Coleam has 19 posts, Xantam has 16, and Schroedinger has 15. Then it is me and Rubicon, followed by the Great Pandimonium and Duke of Rothwood. My numbers are quite probably wrong, but. Coleam comes across as town. If he's a wolf, game over. Then Xantam, whose numbers are inflated because of my bullshit accusation and questions towards Vesvius. Last is Schroedinger, who posted a lot against Silver, and hasn't done much since. This doesn't take us anywhere.

Why would they kill Kalas? That's probably the most informative action all game.

 

In what way?

I've been trying to understand why they'd kill him, when they've mostly been killing lurkers before.

---------- Post automerged at 01:45 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:18 PM ----------

By the way, your assumption that being a villager is boring is kind of weird. I'm enjoying it quite a lot (even if we're losing so far). It's not like villagers have no power, we lynch someone every day. We get to join in the mind games with everyone else, and (hopefully) catch some wolves soon. Why is being scum necessarily more interesting? Sounds more like something a first-time scum would assume, than a genuine reaction from a villager.

On top of that, you seem to be completely missing the point with why we're interested in lurkers.

Lurking is anti-town because it gives us less information about you. The more villagers we feel confident about, the easier it is to pinpoint wolves. Scum would (or should, anyway) want to attract as little attention as possible, while keeping us in the dark about who the villagers might be.

 

My guess is that it's because he was the last player left who hadn't really had anything bad said about him. The wolves are trying to take put all of the clearly pro-town people and leave only those who are questionable in order to make teh decision on who to lynch more difficult. As I said in my earlier post, Kalas was the only person other than myself who I was 100% positive was town. Everyone else is shades of gray, some more than others. This means that (as far as I'm concerned) there are six wolf candidates instead of five, which lowers the odds of picking the right one.

Also, disposablehead, that post was entirely unhelpful, just like all your previous posts. It read like an attempt to sound thoughtful without actually producing any thoughts - as you said, "this doesn't take us anywhere". So why post it? Even if you aren't a wolf (and you probably are), you're just going to muddy the waters if you continue in through later rounds.

I'm going to do what Kalas did yesterday and withhold my vote until we have one less than the majority, which is 4 this round, so that we can get some more discussion. I really, really want to hear from TGP and Duke of Rothwood. Neither of you has posted much, which is not helpful for figuring out who's scum and who isn't. And we really need to root out the scum now.

Just a heads-up though that if the day continues until the deadline, I may not be able to get on since I'll have Christmas Eve mass tomorrow at 5:00 (PST) followed by dinner, and I'm not sure how late that will go.

TL;DR: If we have 3 votes for someone, don't add another vote for them unless it's down to the final minutes and I haven't posted my vote.

 

As I have to be attending a Christmas Party soon and will likely not be back on again tonight, I'm going to vote now. For reasons previously stated, along with the shared suspicion of other:

Vote Player: disposablehead

 

Sorry if I'm being unhelpful. The problem is, scum reads have done exactly jack shit over the last three days. iLost's slip means we have no possible way to definitively figure out who is a wolf or not, and despite all the theory, we might as well be flipping coins.

My three candidates are coleam, Rubicon or (possibly) Schroedinger. Schroedinger seems to have lost interest past day 1, but it is a possibility that he simply smartened up. Xantam is just too all over the place to be the same wolf responsible for such conservative game play. If it isn't me or the lurkers, then it has to be one of these.

 

Erm, ok, but is there any chance you could actually respond to the arguments against you instead of just trying to shift attention?

(Incidentally, if you are scum, my estimate of Schrodinger's guilt just went way up. The obvious strategy for a wolf who's going to be lynched would be to distance himself from his partner, while not casting too much suspicion on him. )

 

FYI, the day ends tomorrow at 11:30 PM eastern, not today, so there's no need to rush in your vote.

disposablehead:

Why are Rubicon and I scum? If you're going to make accusations, you'd better have reasons for them. I've already given my reasons why I think you're scum, but the way you wrote it, it sounds like you're just throwing back the accusations at your accusers - the sign of a desperate scum.

---------- Post automerged at 07:23 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:17 PM ----------

In the same day. The only thing I've done in between is post that I think you're scummy. Sounds like you're getting desperate.

Scum reads have been worthless because very few people have posted much of anything, and those that have have often been ambiguously scummy. The second part can be chalked up to inexperience, but there's no excuse for not posting. If you don't post, we can't get a read.

---------- Post automerged at 07:31 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:23 PM ----------

Oh, I finally figured out what disposablehead meant about post counts. He was saying that people who post a lot must be scum because they have more interest in acting (or something like that). Well, Kalas (proven villager) had 15 posts, and Eternity Lost (also proven villager) had 13 despite getting lynched on Day 2. Your argument is invalid and not very well thought through

 

Yeah. I have no idea how to respond to the posts that I am scummy, or any more constructive ideas. Lynch me or not. Meh.

 

Sorry I haven't been posting much, its just that every time I log on to make a post I end up re-reading the thread multiple times to try and find out who the werewolves are. I'm thinking that either Xantum or Disposablehead are werewolves, but I doubt both of them are since Xantum was the first one to vote for Disposablehead.

 

At least you could have the decency to spell my name right when you accuse me of being scum, deposubullhed.
Ahem. In terms of theories on who is and isn't scum, I fucking give up, since htis is the second day in a row my theories have been wrong. I'm pretty sure it's not coleam, since he and kalas seemed pretty together and we know kalas was pro-town, but other than that, I'm drawing blanks.

 

I admit that disposablehead's apathy about being accused is throwing me for a bit of a loop. It seems like scum would defend themselves better... He doesn't appear to even be trying.

 

Well, considering an -epic- defense only just barely saved iLost despite him being innocent, Maybe it's just resignation?

 

Just a quick reminder: you have 9 hours 15 min from right now before the end of the day.

 

So, is Duke of Rothwood going to post at all?

 

Ok...time to analyze shit.

We have 7 remaining players, and over the next few days we will have to pick 3 of them to lynch.

So far, I think town has been way too distracted by new players who look scummy but are just inexperienced (jas).

I think we should look at things from the opposite perspective. Start by deciding on the 4 players most likely to be town and eliminate them from the suspect list. Then kill the remaining 3, no matter how good their defenses are. This way, even though we might end up killing a villager or two, we maximize our chances of hitting scum.

Probably town players:

To start, I think we're all pretty much agreed that coleam is town.

After reading his crap defense, I'm also inclined to think disposablehead is town. Since he doesn't want to defend himself, I'll do if for him: True, he hasn't been super active, which is anti-town. True, his arguments have been based on a lot of flawed reasoning / apparent misunderstanding of how the game works, which is a scumtell. That said, all of this can be explained away by saying he's a bored newbie who hasn't completely figured out mafia yet.

And more importantly, I just wouldn't expect scum to go down so easily. It could be a trick - "act resigned so they have second thoughts" - but I don't really buy that.

Yes, he could be scum, but I really don't think he's our best candidate. If we need to pick 3 people to lynch - and we do - he would not be my choice. Not at this point. If you guys feel differently, go ahead and lynch him - I'll even toss my vote in if it's needed - but I'm against it.

Moving on, most of you have indicated you think I'm probably town. I leave that up to your judgment.

This leaves 4 players: Xantam, Schrodinger, The Great Pandemonium, and Duke of Rothwood. We have to eliminate one more, since we only get 3 lynches.

Personally, of the remaining 4, I think Duke of Rothwood is most likely to be town. I'm basing this on the fact that he hasn't even logged into DLP in 2 days, according to his profile. He doesn't seem to be lurking so much as not even paying attention, which isn't what I'd expect from scum.

This leaves 3 suspects:

Xantam
Schrodinger
The Great Pandemonium

I say we commit to lynching these guys, one by one. I'm not sure it matters much what order we do it in.

As far as I can tell, this gives us our best shot of winning. We might still lose, but it's the best odds.

TL;DR - flip a coin and lynch either Xantam, Schrodinger, or GP today

---------- Post automerged at 12:51 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:51 PM ----------

By the way, lest anyone think I'm just a wolf trying to shift the attention to 3 innocents, I'm totally open to discussion, and if you guys would rather pick 3 different choices, all right. This is just what I would do, if I were the only one voting. Plus the attention wasn't really on me to begin with, so it would be pretty retarded to post this if I were scum.

Also, I realize Xantam, Schrodinger and GP will probably object to this (lol) but look at it this way. You're going to get NK'd eventually anyway! So it doesn't matter. XD

 

...Yeah, I will respectfully disagree with your analysis, haha, but I have trouble arguing with it, off hand.
THe problem I see is that if me, Grand Pandemonium and Xantam are the suspects, that puts Xanta, and TGP as the wolves, and I don't think it really fits either of them. TgP has only been slightly more active than the Duke, and Xantam's behavior just doesn't match the way the werewolves have been playing. In terms of my suspicions, my two highest are Duke and disposablehead, one of whom is a lurker and one of whom has the rather random, all-over-the-board posting that matches the NKs so far.
Out of curiosity, though, rubicon, why is disposablehead less scummy than me?
As for me being NK'd eventually, the fact that pretty much everyone has accused me of being scum at one point or another is a perfect protection for whomever is actual scum.