So, I have Jeram as my most suspicious person, but couldn't really articulate why when I tried to make a post regarding it, other than general lurkiness and ~vibes~. So, went back to carefully log and analyse his many posts. Oh, wait.

Fluff post. Whatever. A lot of them early.

Yeeeah. This was the post that made me go, "What?" It appears at first glance to have plenty of content, but it is just... saying absolutely nothing? Maybe this guy is scum. Or maybe he's not. Or maybe this guy is scum. Or maybe he's not. And maybe this reason is legit. Or maybe it's not. It's safe, it's covering all bases, and it's pure scum. Or maybe it's not (SEE WHAT I DID THERE?)

This was a vote tacked on to the end of a bandwagon. Literally the end, after the lynch was finalized. I didn't really like how it felt at the time, even if logically it's a poor play from scum. Unless he was just poked to vote because he hadn't, which looks even more suspicious?

Okay, so he didn't vote for Kalas... ever, day two or three. That's a HUGE red flag against him. Voting for Bill helps a little bit, but frankly, if he hadn't, he'd already be lynched.

BillDoor: 7
Eidolonic, Custer, Aziraphale, Jeram, Ash, Schrodinger, Vira

Solidly in the middle. The Bill wagon made me feel a little better about Azira and a little worse about Scrhodinger and Vira, at the time, and that still holds true. Well. Minus Vira, because.. yeah. Cop.

TL;DR - I'm still not entirely sure if he's new/derping town, or scum. But there was nothing in his posts to make me move him from my 'most suspicious' slot at bottom of the oranges, either. His voting history is bad, his posts are very...safe, with no real opinions or scumhunting. And there aren't all that many posts to begin with.

 

So voting in the beginning is bad because you're jumping the gun, voting in the middle is bad because you're trying too hard to look safe, and voting near the end is bad because you're just sealing the deal. When's a twonie to vote, Eido?

 

Well.

It's different depending on whether or not someone flips scum or town.

For example, the only reason I'm not lynching you is because of how early on you voted for Kalas on day three, and how unlikely it is that scum would do so. I might do a full voting analysis post just to see if anything jumps off the page at me, actually. Line up all the wagons and color code it all pretty-like.

 

Yes, please speak up if Vira is falseclaiming. I'm going to believe her until someone does speak up, because it makes no sense for them to keep quiet.

Vira said she was waiting for Zeit to respond about her night 4 check target, which she switched to Jeram. This may really change our opinions, but as Eidolonic said, a check innocent could mean nothing. I would be okay with lynching Azira, but I think Jeram is also a good target, better IMO. I'm not going to lay down a vote just yet, but I will soon.

 

Day One - 9 needed to lynch

Ash: 1
Schrodinger

Vira: 1
Ash

Gambit: 8
Riley Poole, Vira, Eidolonic, Aekiel, Azira, Bill Door, Sesc, Kalas

Eidolonic: 2
Gambit, Krogan

Yet to vote: Custer, CheddarTrek, Jeram, LochNess


Day Two - 8 needed to lynch

Eidolonic: 1
Gambit

Gambit: 10
Vira, Schrodinger, Kalas, CheddarTrek, Bill Door, Azira, Sesc, Ash, Krogan, Jeram

Kalas: 3
Eidolonic, Aekiel, LochNess

Yet to vote: Custer


Day Three - 7 needed to lynch

Kalas: 7
Eidolonic, Custer, Schrodinger, Ashaya, Sesc, Vira, Azira

Yet to vote: Bill Door, CheddarTrek, Jeram, Kalas, Krogan, LochNess


Day Four - 7 needed to lynch

BillDoor: 7
Eidolonic, Custer, Azira, Jeram, Ash, Schrodinger, Vira

Vira: 1
Sesc

Custer: 1
Bill Door

Yet to vote: CheddarTrek, Krogan, LochNess


Thoughts:
Day Two and Day Three are the really interesting wagons. Bill was doomed going into Day Four after the Kalas flip, and there's not really anything we can take from that in an absolute fashion.

Day Two, though. Look at all that orange and red voting for Ollie. And all the green not voting for him. Scum do not like to vote back to back if they can help it, which makes me feel marginally better about Schro/Cheddar/Azira, and slightly worse about Jeram. Obviously one of Schro/Cheddar/Azira/Krogan voted back to back somewhere, but you can't always avoid it. Just a small thing to note.

Day Three is incredibly interesting because... that's a lot of green. And that list of people that didn't vote? Yeah, that's a hell of a lot of not-green. I feel a little better about Azira voting third there, because he could have gone for Vira and tried to shift the lynch that way? But he didn't.

Cheddar/Krogan both have excuses for not voting, but jesus not voting for either of the flipped scum looks awful. I take people at their word regarding Real Life stuff, though, so I'm not going to use that against them. Just... noting it.

Interested on thoughts from other people on the voting patterns, or just the orange people in general. Let's assume we have 2 scum in those 5 names. Who are they?

 

Eid you really need to relax, I mean seriously your going to have an aneurysm at this rate.

 

I'm trying to think of a world in which a town player would say this.

And... I'm coming up empty.

>Someone analyses game, narrows down scum
>Gets told 'whoa, chill out bro'

Basically, Vote Player: Krogan

 

/facepalm

Are you kidding me? I never said your wrong, I never said I have doubts I just said you need to relax a bit and that instantaneously makes you vote for me? Its ridiculously to the point of hilarity,

 

Eid's making sense Krogan. You're not; you're being overly defensive and really scummy.

Vote Player: Krogan.

 

Wait what? Im not trying to be defensive in the least, Christ alive I was just trying to make a joke. That was the entire point of my original post to Eid. I also find it laughable that the instant a target takes the focus off of you your trying to get them nailed.

 

... She's the revealed cop. With no one counterclaiming. Are you seriously trying to flip this around on her?

 

No Im not I was just trying to make a joke, that's it. I find it annoying beyond belief that it leads to you instantaneously changing your vote and trying to have me shot.

 

Basically, we have 2 scum in 5 names.

Cheddar, Krogan, Jeram, Schrodinger, Azira.

As suspicious as Schrodinger's posts have been, I do think he's probably town, to the point I'm considering moving him to the world of green. Voting so early on when that Kalas lynch happened is just a very, very +Town thing, even if the defensiveness was scummy as hell.

So that leaves 4 names. 2 of them are probably scum. And instead of doing something useful and helping town, you're making jokes and trying to shift suspicion onto the claimed cop. Like... what?

Maybe you're town, maybe you're scum. But when it comes down to 50% odds, I don't mind taking those. Unless you plan to claim a town power role? Yeah, let's go with that. Mind claiming? If you claim a power role, I have no problems with you being counter claimed, including by the doc. If you claim rebel, then losing a vanilla town when there's 50% odds that they are scum isn't a terrible thing, as it means 2 of the 3 remaining are scum.

If you actually are town, then role claim, and make a good case against one (or two) of the other 3 possibilities to be scum! I'm perfectly willing to be swayed, as I plan to just kill all of that group of 4 until the game ends, heh.

To help you out, here are the other 3 names that could be scum: Cheddar, Jeram, Azira.

You're welcome to change my mind on someone not listed there, but it'd be pretty hard to do, I think.

 

No I really dont, feel free to do whatever you like. I dont feel like I should have to start claiming because I made a simple joke and you lost your shit. Kill me or not, its of no consequence to me.

 

Eido, while I agree with your cold logic, I really think that you're overreacting. Krogan was trying to joke. It's something humans do every now and then.

 

Hey, you heard the man.
Vote Player: Krogan

 

Oh, I don't even care about the 'joke' (Which, y'know. Jokes tend to actually be funny). He was just one of the four people I thought scum had to be residing in, so I pounced on it, and poked him for a reaction.

The reaction I got was pretty hilarious, and the refusal to claim even better.

I'm never as sure as I seem initially, but panicky scum like to dig their own graves.

If he's actually town, he'd have claimed, since there's no reason not to. One of three things would happen:

1.) He claims power role, and is not counter claimed. Result: We know he's town, and we know we have 2 scum in the remaining 3 people.

2.) He claims power role, and is counter claimed. Depending on who counter claims him, we kill the more likely scum, and find out either way who one of the scum are.

3.) He claims Rebel. We kill him based on 50% odds, and worst case scenario is that we lose a vanilla town, and know that there's 2 scum in the remaining 3 suspects - with cop check able to be used tonight.

I wasn't sure at first, but I'm very okay now with his lynch. Isn't pressure fun?

 

Okay, we have three votes for Krogan so far, with nine players. We need two more votes to lynch him, so let's get this done fast so we can talk in Twilight.

 

And so help me god, if you're the cop and you're not counterclamiing Vira, go die in a corner. ^_^

 

Pretty much only person it could be other than her is like... Cheddar? Which is possible, but unlikely. I don't think scum!vira would have fake claimed all innocent results, as well as the derp about checking someone twice.