Thinking like this is very dangerous in closed setups. We don't know what power roles, if any there are left. If we had Fen as a bulletproof, stojil and presumably another mason, do you really think there's going to be both a cop and a doctor in the game? 5 town power roles in a 12 player setup seems a bit high to me.

I agree that it would be better for a doctor to wait for a cop to reveal, but don't stay hidden if no one comes forward.

 

Unvote: Castiel mainly because I'm now really lost as to who to vote for right now.

Rubicon: What are you reads on Sesc and Bill Door now
Fontisian: What are you reads on Castiel and Myself
BillDoor: What are your thoughts on Moridin
Sesc: If Rubicon were lynched and reveals town, who would your nex target be?

I'm at work again but it's starting to slow down here so I should hopefully be able to hop on every once in a while.

 

Question: why those 4 specifically Riley?

Bill: Why you so scummy?

Everyone: Where the fuck are you guys?

 

Just trying to start conversation honestly. I was going to ask everyone at to tell me what they thought of at least two others after the first round of questions but since no one wants to take the bait.

What do you think of Sesc and Moridin?

 

He's one of my only strong town reads. He's made good posts which are both long and actually meaningful and he's tried to encourage discussion.

At the moment my only strong reads are:
Town - Moridin, Fontisian
Scum - Castiel
Everyone else, somehwere in between.

Castiel - I haven't liked his play since D1, then his "let's lynch me guys" idea, but never even voting just looks bad, especially when it led to a no lynch.

Fontisian - Another strong town read. She says good things and encourages other to talk.

I'm unsure about Typhon, on the one hand I had Kaemrynn down as scum, but given he was having problems I could put his day 1 play down as just him being new, and his day 2 inactivity wasn't his fault. So at the moment my read on him is pretty much blank.

Kalas has been strange. He's talked quite a lot about his suspicions and got into little arguments with people, but he hasn't actually acted on any of this. He voted for Fen early on D1 and then was part of that rush of people voting for Rubicon late on D2. I don't want to straight up call him scum, but he hasn't looked very town to me.

Riley - Hasn't really stood out to me either way. He his voting has been pretty bandwagony, but nothing incriminating. Firmly null in my mind.

Rubicon - I don't even know what to think if him. His claim seemed pretty desperate, but then the bandwagon on him did form very quickly and he might just have panicked as a town player. Sesc is a weird choice to protect, he wouldn't have even been in my top three of people to protect. I'll hold judgement on him to see if anyone else claims anything.

Sesc - Kinda similar to Riley here. Talked quite a bit but hasn't really said much of interest.

Iunno. Cause I'm Irish?

Feel like elaborating?

---------- Post automerged at 08:10 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:09 PM ----------

Vote Castiel by the way

 

So, I feel like I might be making a mistake and making a target of myself by doing this, but at the same time I don't want the town wasting time trying to analyze my posts for scum slips: I'm the other mason. Which means Stojil and I had only a relatively brief time to talk, but I have access to some of his reads, at least.

Like I hinted at with the Rubicon section of my read wall, we were in agreement that everything was contingent on whether Rubicon was the doctor or not. If not (Stojil suspected he was, and I'm inclined to agree, barring a counterclaim), then his guess was that it was a font Riley Rubicon scumteam, due to how quickly Riley posted after font with posts 47 and 48.

That seems... Unlikely, to me, but the logic is there. So, with that said, presuming that he's right, and Riley is town, font is town (which is starting to make me a /bit/ nervous, honestly; everybody seems to think she's town, and while I agree with that, we shouldn't forget she /could/ be scum), and Rubicon is the doctor, that brings us to:

Bold = confirmed town
Italics = assumed town

Typhon
fontesian
Riley Poole
Rubicon
Moridin (sorry mate, I knew something looked off)
Kalas
Sesc
Bill Door
Castiel

I've already stated my opinion on Castiel, and while I don't mind agreeing that it's not even vaguely ironclad, he's done it before. Moreover, he was (drawing from how he dropped out today) doing it to quit. I may be dead wrong, but I just don't get scum from all of that. That screams "bored vanilla town" at me. Moridin referenced a specific day 2 post that I've yet to look at, but I'll further update my Castiel read then.

So, that leaves us with 3 of:

Sesc
Moridin
Kalas
Bill Door

And even then, there are question marks. Why in the holy hell did Sesc get the protect, Rubicon? Moridin already asked, but that's the kind of question worth asking twice. Because my knee jerk was to want to lynch Sesc as the first scum I've been confident of all game, but then I realized it didn't make sense to me why he'd get a protect either.

Barring a counter-claim (which would fuck /all/ of this up), I still call you scum, Sesc, as did Stojil. Still, there are more than a few question marks here.

When narrowed to a list of 2 out of 3, I have to follow Stojil's judgement and say the remaining scum are Kalas and Bill Door. I was dead set on Moridin being scum, and I'm still not /positive/ that you aren't, but I've come around; I think that Kalas and Bill Door are more likely.

Honestly, the order almost doesn't matter. With a scum team of three, we could actually lynch all 4 and win. Bah. That's enough from me, though; let's hear you guys tear that apart!

---------- Post automerged at 03:43 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:40 PM ----------

Oh, I should probably say Stojil's trueclaim!Rubicon picks in their fullness, so yo guys can see it, and don't just think I'm trying to throw weight behind my own guess.

He thought there was a Sesc, Kalas, Bill Door scumteam.

---------- Post automerged at 03:44 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:43 PM ----------

Damn. Not sure how that happened. Sorry!

 

Ok you're going to have to walk me through Riley isn't scum -> He's town.

Besides that, as a fakeclaim, Rubicon could easily have been dropping hints to the role all game at no danger to himself. So honestly, I really don't think we should settle that until we get a verrrry good explanation for Sesc of all people.

I can agree on Bill Door at least.

 

Fair enough. Stojil's logic was that the by-play with posts #47 and #48 (although it extends a bit further than that, if I remember correctly) was so quick that for Riley to be scum, it had to be:

a. rehearsed
b. he was rushing his posts

If font is scum, then both Stojil and I would be shocked, and rushing posts as scum in the early game like that seems unnecessarily foolish. And kinda unlikely.

I concur, actually. Rubicon, I kinda want to trust you, mate, but you hurt yourself with that. What was the rationale?

Awesome; there's that, at least.

Sesc, I saw you lurking earlier; what do you make of all of this?

 

Rereading to see if Typhon's story holds up. Riley, I'll get back to you soon.

 

Vote: Bill Door
for being my most likely suspect at the moment. fonti thoughts from the reread?

 

Vote: Sesc for reading without comment. I agree with Kalas's vote on Bill Door too, for the record, but I don't want us to get locked in on one person at this point in the day.

 

Sorry for the delay. I got distracted and this ended up taking a lot longer than I expected. While I’m apologizing, next week is the first week of AP testing so I be significantly less active.

When Moridin asked Stojil for his possible scum teams, Stojil looked at everyone except jwlk and Kaemrynn. He never actually pressured Kaemrynn, in spite of many opportunities with the exception of this:

which honestly looks more like annoyance at Kaemrynn’s absence than suspicion. Thus, I believe Typhon’s reveal and he is town-firmed in my eyes, even though he apparently has trouble spelling people’s names.

Ah, but what you fail to understand is that I play recklessly as scum. Right Moridin? XD

The lack of a counter-claim has given me some confidence in Rubicon’s reveal, but I’d like to see his response to the posed questions before declaring him town. In addition, he now has more than enough time to elaborate on his read list.

Riley: I tend to always think you (along with Castiel and Bill Door) are scum just based on your posting style and some of your logic makes my brain hurt. Especially when you do stuff like this:

What was the point of those questions? That is just such a defensive move. Anyway, your recent activity puts you near the bottom of my lynch priority list.

Castiel: I wasn’t trying to lynch Castiel yesterday because of his inactivity or his role claim. I was trying to lynch him because of his painfully defensive posts and refusal to hunt scum beyond Kaemrynn. That hasn’t changed with him dropping out. The trouble is Castiel being scum doesn’t mesh well with the reactions of all the other suspects. Moridin and Bill Door are unlikely because they voted for Castiel on Day 1. Sesc was voted for by Castiel on day 1, though that could have been preemptive busing. Kalas is the only real possibility as a Castiel teammate. As much as I would like to lynch Castiel in a vacuum, I don’t really see how he fits in as scum in the big picture.

Now for Moridin, Kalas, Sesc, and Bill Door. The following observations are made with the assumption that Typhon and Rubicon are town.

On Moridin:

Moridin had a read of everyone who had posted except Rubicon, Bill Door and Castiel.

I’ve mentioned it before, but his backtracking on Kalas really bothers me. Added to that is the way Kalas didn’t mention any suspicions of Moridin until I pointed out this connection.

On Bill Door:

This vote either indicates that they are not a team, or that they are and Bill Door was preparing for one of them to be lynched later in the game by placing a vote on Kalas with weak reasoning that was unlikely to go anywhere. Based on Kalas’ recent vote for Bill Door, I’m going to go with the first option.

More stuff against Kalas and Castiel, though the Castiel stuff is weaker. Strong town read of Moridin that indicates they may be teammates, but I personally find the bleh read of Sesc to be more suspect.

On Kalas:

Kalas puts some pressure on Castiel, but votes for Fen over Castiel when Castiel is at two votes. The stuff on Moridin is a bit of a preface to his later pressure on Moridin for not applying pressure. The read on Sesc is really uninformative. The soft negative view of Bill Door makes a possible scum team between them less likely.

On Sesc:

Sesc is referring to the Fen bandwagon, which Sesc, Stojil and Kalas were on. Possible Kalas connection.

The next post is anti-Kalas, of course.

I actually see Sesc as kind of towny because of his blow-up at the end of Day 2. He tends to only get angry like that when something unexpected hurts his faction and Rubicon’s role-reveal so close to deadline qualifies as being fairly bad for town. Of course, he could have faked that reaction and he still has explained his weird vote switches near the end of Day 2.

tl:dr I can really only see Kalas as scum with Moridin or Castiel. A Sesc-Bill Door scumteam is possible if they screwed up on rescinding their votes from Rubicon and switching to Castiel at the same time. Moridin and Bill Door are possible.

 

As far as Kaemrynn/Typhon goes, I agree that he is most likely on the level as Stojil's partner, given the interactions between them. Although in that case, his Day 1 activity looks really odd - you'd think Stojil would help him a touch more than that. Beyond that, however, I'm still not comfortable with accepting Rubicon's claim, and as an extension feel that Castiel is still a valid target. BillDoor said something earlier about how we don't know what and how many power roles there are, and we have yet to see any empirical evidence that a doctor exists. As such, Rubicon's claim could easily be fake even without a counterclaim. It does feel odd that we have neither a cop nor a doctor, but maybe we have something else to make up for it (like a vigilante or something, one of those wouldn't have fired yet either).

I initially was a bit wary about lynching Castiel because I figured his single mindedness and lack of responses to answers could be because he wasn't active enough to peruse the thread that closely, but a closer look at Day 1 indicates that he was there enough to at least be a little more convincing. Plus Day 2, it hardly takes much time to vote for yourself, especially if you have the time to make a post advocating your own lynch. As such, he's back on the top of my list.

As for a third, well, I'm not yet sure. The Day 2 events make a proper analysis of such a potential team a bit dicey, since it was effectively down to Rubicon vs Castiel, and the third member could have chosen to bus either one - Rubicon if he was smart, in which case Sesc and Bill Door come to mind for their switching off Rubicon as soon as he said something - Bill Door somewhat justified it later (the justification being he felt it pointed towards a Rubicon/Castiel scumteam, in which case why not just stay on Rubicon?), while Sesc just switched back when pressured on it. I disagree with respect to Sesc feeling townie for his reaction at the end of Day 2 - it could have quite easily been manufactured, and the vote slipped in deliberately too late, so he remains suspicious for me.

Kalas is for this reason somewhat okay in such a team since I feel #245 would have gone with Castiel if he was scum bussing.

Of course, Castiel could have mentioned that he would be dropping out soon due to RL time issues, in which case the third scum would have chosen to bus Rubicon, hoping Castiel would gain a bit of credit for his inactivity being forced. This lends itself to a Kalas or Riley team. Personally, I'd find more in favour of the other theory (scum bussing Castiel).

Vote: Castiel

Beyond that, while I agree that Fontisian as scum tends to be a bit aggressive, I don't think she's scum in this game, primarily because of the discussion generating posts that haven't really been afraid to push at most people. I could be wrong, but I'm fairly comfortable with discounting her for the moment. This helps little, seeing as I'm suspicious of basically everyone else, but w/e.

tl;dr I still think Castiel and then Rubicon should be lynched.

 

Mod Note: There's a high chance for an extension today if I can find a replacement for Castiel.

Unfortunately, no replacement has been forthcoming thus far.

 

Sesc: Why do you feel Castiel is town? If you could address #195 in your answer, that would be great. Typhon, this is the post I was referring to. I still am not satisfied wrt the issues I raised there, which makes Castiel's later slip of not voting for himself that much more problematic.

Typhon, Fontisian, you have both provided analyses for worlds in which Rubicon is town. Consider the other possibility, and run with it. What are your likeliest scum teams in the event that Rubicon is scum? Building a case against any overlaps could be simpler than remaining focused on the issue of Rubicon's allegiance, at least for today.

Looking at it right now, it seems like Bill Door is the likeliest to be the target of a consensus as things stand now. Bill, could you explain your vote switch at #236?

 

I had my vote on Rubicon because he'd been inactive for quite a long time and I wanted to get him posting, which he did. So i changed to Castiel who I thought was more likely to be scum. I didn't think Rubicon had done anything lynch worthy and Castiel had.

 

In a world in which Rubicon is town...

I still feel Castiel is my top bet as scum. Honestly, a lot of my links go Rubicon -> Castiel rather than the other way around. In this situation, while I agree that Bill Door and Riley (#133 #134) are unlikely as potential teammates for Castiel, both Kalas and Sesc work decently. It's not an ideal team, though, and I like it much less. It's mainly stretching to fit with Castiel being scum.

In the scenario with both Rubicon and Castiel being town, I have no idea what is going on anymore. Still, in such a situation, and going purely by individual content, I'd go with Bill, Sesc, Riley, Kalas in that order of decreasing scumminess.

---------- Post automerged at 09:45 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:35 PM ----------

Right, but could you expand on that? Specifically, what precisely had Castiel done that made him scummier than Rubicon? You mentioned that you found it likely that they were scummates, and would advocate lynching Rubicon if Castiel flipped scum. Rubicon was clearly active while Castiel wasn't. Wouldn't it have made more sense to pressure Rubicon further?

You say he did start posting. Specifically, he posted #224. I mentioned my issues with that post in #234 (and based on later posts I clearly wasn't the only one who found it problematic), and when I asked you why you moved your vote you replied with #243, which makes no sense as far as moving your vote goes for the reasons I mentioned above.

So, again, explain why, at the time of moving your vote, you found Castiel scummier than Rubicon. A comparison, remember, not a simple enumeration of Castiel's actions - I agree he's suspicious, I want to know why he's worse.

 

Because I didn't really think Rubicon had done much that was scummy. All he'd really done of note was be very aggressive to me for voting against Castiel, which is why I would have lynched Rubicon after Castiel. My only reason for thinking that he was scum was that I thought Castiel was scum and they were linked together.