Epic scum implosion.

 

Okay, so to start off I want to say that I know I've promising a post all day, and I'm sorry that I'm just now making it. RL kinda got in the way. Anyways, a lot has happened, so I'm just gonna jump in:

Moridin:
If Rubicon is scum, we have another town power role, and I honestly think they should look into revealing. That might be the noobishness shining through, but the chance that there are 2 remaining power roles (assuming scum Rubicon) is slim. Infinitesimal, almost. And it /would/ change everything if Rubicon was scum.

Off the top of my head, you're basically town-firmed in that situation, Bill Door is still scummy, and one of Castiel, Sesc, and Kalas are scum, with my /guess/ being Castiel. Castiel's replacement has been doing some decent analysis, but I remember connecting him and Rubicon before.

To further discuss Castiel, I rereading the earlier game make it undeniable that Castiel was scummy as all hell. I wasn't joking about the whole "kill him with fire" in my notes circa post 200; I remembered why I came to that conclusion. Ultimately, the reason I'm not still pushing it is because I'm fairly sold on town Rubicon as things stand, and, as pointed out by fontisian, with a town Rubicon the Castiel lynch makes no sense in terms of teammates. Town, on the other hand, makes a great deal of sense in the big picture.

I think the best path forward is Bill. If and when he flips scum, we can figure out the next day's actions.

And I'm exhausted all over again. Let me sleep before I go any further, but expect a post early tomorrow. No, but really this time.

---------- Post automerged at 10:55 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:36 AM ----------

Okay, let's try this again, starting with some general thoughts:

Riley: Where are you? Extended disappearances aren't a good thing, especially on day 3.

I have a gut feeling that at least some scum have given Bill Door (who I still presume to be scum) up as a lost cause here, and are attacking him for town cred.

Sesc - Kalas connection is still strong; they voted with each other in all of the lynches, and have said very little directly about one another. They might be my best bet at a team.

Kalas did lead the charge for Bill Door, though... Bah. I think it was a setup to create precisely this reaction, but nevertheless it /has/ made me less sure. Even now, I'm still reasonably confident that there are a minimum of two scum on this list, from highest chance to lowest:

Bill Door
Sesc
Kalas
Moridin

A Bill Door flip will be information laden, at least.

 

Agreed. For me, it's a matter of lynching through that pile.

@Typhon: Why do you think Riley is town?

We can analyze the Bill Door wagon later. If Bill Door flips scum, who would you go after at this point? Same for if Bill was town.

 

I misspoke earlier when writing the Castiel analysis, sorry. I think that a scum Castiel is unlikely with a town Rubicon because it doesn't fit in terms of scum teams. It's possible, I suppose, but unlikely. Town Castiel /does/ fit. That's what I was trying to say, but I came out muddled. Sorry.

Prophylaxis:
Riley doesn't feel like scum to me because of his interactions with people. As somebody (pretty sure it was you, actually, now that I think about it) pointed out, the Riley-Sesc interactions seem to genuine to be faked, but I'd go a step further and say that a statement like that applies to several people.

Further, as I pointed out (well, it was actually Stojil in our QT, but whatever), there was a brief back and forth between font and Riley on day one that was so rapid fire that it was either rehearsed (unlikely, felt genuine and font is strong town read), Riley rushed his posts as scum at a point so early in the game that it didn't matter (possible, but unecessary risk for no gain), or he's town. In light of everything, I think town is our best bet. Not willing to give the almost townfirmed status of font, but I still have the 2 of you in a similar place in my mind.

Going forward... Hmm. Without committing considerable time to analysis and without further info, Sesc is my next target if he flips scum. For a town Bill, Kalas is the next target. That's a little hazy without seeing the flip and reactions, though.

And you?

 

Votals:
Bill Door (4) Kalas, Typhon, Rubicon, Prophylaxis
Prophylaxis (3) Bill Door, Moridin, Fontisian
Rubicon (1) : Sesc

Abstaining (1) Riley Poole

With 9 players alive, it is 5 to hard lynch and 3 to soft lynch.

~4 hours remain in Day Three!

 

FUCK. FUCK. FUCK YOU CHROME. MY BEAUTIFUL POST. MY BEAUTIFUL LONG POST. FUCK.

Okay, let's try this again.

Unvote

Rubicon, what's your opinion on Castiel/Prophylaxis?

It's mainly about two issues. One, Castiel's tunnel vision on Kaemrynn. Two, his ignoring me, which lends credence to my suspicions regarding his tunnel vision. Like I said, it feels like he picked a scumlist (you and me) at random just to have something to say, and then later chose Kaemrynn as a target completely discarding said scumlist.

This is really quite ironic. I still don't like Castylaxis and Rubicon, but I'm feeling slightly better about the two of them based on how their recent posts have been. Prophylaxis has made a case, he's shown links, he's argued his point. You have done nothing of the sort.

You mention how you switched to Castiel because you found him scummier. Well, let's take a look at your post history concerning him before your switch to him here.

The closest post to that talking about Castiel's scumminess is this one. You do mention him as scum here. Low enough that he shares the third spot with Kaemrynn, rather than having his own. Interestingly enough, both Riley and Kalas also appear on this list, and don't seem to figure into your considerations again until here, where Kalas is now 'on the scummy side of neutral' and Riley (this one is good) "hasn't really stood out" - so you basically forgot you had ever considered him anything.

This reeks of you picking a scumlist based on names being bandied around, and then not following up because you don't really have anything to follow up on, since it was a throwaway post and your targets are chosen by different criteria. It doesn't look any better than when Castiel did it (and sharing tactics with him doesn't help your case either).

Here you talk about how you want Kaemrynn and Rubicon to talk more, but as far as actually weighing in on what's happening - Castiel had posted less than half a day ago, and if you had any issues with him now would be the time to air them. Or, you know, discuss, instead of attempting to just get others to discuss.

Spoiler

You don't.

Both near Day 1 end and soon after Day 2 begins, you give strong indications that you didn't really feel Castiel was all that scummy (incidentally, not sure how I missed #177, where Castiel dodges yet another requested scumread at #172). So we need to look further ahead for the stirring of this suspicion. Which leaves us with this and this as the lynchpins for your argument for lynching Castiel over Rubicon. Whatever Rubicon may have claimed after and said since notwithstanding, this is horrible. Castiel basically says he wants to be lynched, and your response is... to lynch him. To gain what information, exactly? If he flips scum, great, he flipped scum. What has he said and how can we use it? Oh right, we lynched him because he said practically nothing. If he lynches town, welp, stupid town is stupid town. What next? We have nothing to go on from a confirmed townie, however idiotic said townie may be.

If he wants to die, the correct thing to do is not to lynch him. It is to pressure him to give us more information about his current reads on the game and the players. Whatever he flips, that information is extremely useful. At no point in your longstanding vendetta against him that has seen sagas birthed from the fringes of its aftermaths have you actually challenged him to do anything other than die like he asked to.

Rubicon was active at the time. Castiel wasn't. Pressuring Rubicon would also have been extremely useful. You didn't. In fact, you went so far as to take the onus off Rubicon, by saying we should lynch him tomorrow (and therefore not today). Give him a whole night and day (mafia time, not real time) to form counterarguments, yeah, that seems like a good plan.

And all this is just one day. I'm not even getting into how horrible the post I've quoted is (I believe I expressed my opinion on that one earlier).

I mean, come on. You're one of the stronger town players here. Like Fontisian said, you generally scumhunt, discuss, provoke and, you know, do stuff. This isn't town you. Ergo,

Vote:Bill Door

 

Day Three Ends!

Diamond marshmallows hover above the swampy birdfeeder, as taco-scented snorklers frolic amicably.

Another day draws to a close, but this time there is a united push, and the town lashes out against the randomness swirling around them with force. With a cry of victory, they watch a significant chunk of it vanish, leaving no trail behind.


Bill Door has been lynched!

Bill Door was a Used Pregnancy Test

He was the Mafia Rolecop


Votals!

Bill Door (5) Kalas, Typhon, Rubicon, Prophylaxis, Moridin
Prophylaxis (2) Bill Door, Fontisian
Rubicon (1) : Sesc

Abstaining (1) Riley Poole

With 9 players alive, it was 5 to hard lynch and 3 to soft lynch.


Timer for Day Four Start!​

Mod Note: I may start night early if all actions are in within a reasonable time span.

 

Woah woah woah, did we just hard lynch?

---------- Post automerged at 02:14 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:13 PM ----------

Ninja'd, sorry

 

Day Four Begins!

Chicken helicopter toffee slide down the sunshine starfish.

Day Four begins. There is sun in the sky, and while the randomness is still roaring around the waking town, there are patches of clear blue sky shining through. There's a sense of optimism prevalent as you gather to face off against the malestrom of colors and smells once more - but then you notice a dead body.

It's a midget... and are those polkadots?


Riley Poole has died in the night!

Riley Poole was a Polka-dotted Midget.

He was Vanilla Town.


Livelist!
Fontisian
Kalas
Moridin
Prophylaxis
Rubicon
Sesc
Typhon

With 7 alive, it is 4 to hard lynch, and 3 to soft lynch.


Day Four ends in 77 Hours!​

 

...da fuck?

Why on earth would Riley be hit? There was a fair chance for his lynch, there was at least one target in me that is townfirmed, with others providing a great deal of town production... unless they suspected he was a power role, this seems pointless.

Maybe somebody else will see something I did not in this, but I confess scum strategy is thoroughly confusing me.

More importantly,
Moridin: What the hell, mate? You have been one of the most exacting players in this game; how could you bring us to hard lynch with so much time left? We lost /hours/!

Bah. Get in here people, we have lots of crap to do. Vote analysis and where to go next incoming from me sometime reasonably soon.

 

I protected Typhon.

 

Day 1 voting
jwlk vote Kalas (1)
Rubicon vote jwlk (1)
Bill Door vote jwlk (2)
fontisian vote Rubicon (1)
Stojil vote jwlk (3)
Castiel vote jwlk (4)
Kaemrynn vote jwlk (5)
Fenraellis vote jwlk (6)
Stojil unvote jwlk (5)
Castiel unvote jwlk (4)
Stojil vote Fenraellis (1)
Castiel vote Fenraellis (2)
Fenraellis unvote jwlk (3)
Rubicon unvote jwlk (2) vote Bill Door (1)
Bill Door unvote jwlk (1) vote Kalas (2)
fontisian unvote Rubicon (0) vote Kaemrynn (1)
jwlk unvote Kalas (1) vote Castiel (1)
Stojil unvote Fenraellis (1) vote Sesc (1)
Castiel unvote Fenraellis (0) vote Sesc (2)
Kaemrynn unvote jwlk (0) vote Castiel (2)
fontisian unvote Kaemrynn (0)
Sesc vote Fenraellis (1)
Stojil unvote Sesc (1) vote Fenraellis (2)
Riley Poole vote Sesc (2)
Kalas vote Fenraellis (3)
Bill Door unvote Kalas (0) vote Kaemrynn (1)
fontisian vote Fenraellis (4)
Castiel unvote Sesc (1)
Moridin vote Castiel (3)
Fenraellis vote Castiel (4)
Castiel vote Fenraellis (5)
Fenraellis unvote Castiel (3)
Stojil unvote Fenraellis (4) vote Castiel (4)
Riley Poole unvote Sesc (0)
Bill Door unvote Kaemrynn (0) vote Castiel (5)
Riley Poole vote Castiel (6)
Rubicon vote Fenraellis (5)
Stojil unvote Castiel (5) vote Fenraellis (6)

Day 2 voting
Castiel vote Kaemrynn (1)
Stojil vote Riley (1)
fontisian vote Castiel (1)
Bill Door vote Rubicon (1)
Moridin vote Castiel (2)
Stojil unvote Riley (1) vote Rubicon (2)
Kalas vote Stojil (1)
Sesc vote Rubicon (3)
Moridin unvote Castiel (1) vote Rubicon (4)
Sesc unvote Rubicon (3) vote Castiel (2)
Bill Door unvote Rubicon (2) vote Castiel (3)
Kalas unvote Stojil (0) vote Rubicon (3)
Riley Poole vote Rubicon (4)
Sesc unvote Castiel (2) vote Rubicon (5)
Rubicon vote Castiel (3)
Stojil unvote Rubicon (4)
Stojil vote Castiel (4)
Sesc attempted unvote Rubicon (3) vote Castiel (5)

Day 3 voting
Kalas vote Rubicon (1)
Kalas unvote Rubicon (0)
Riley Poole vote Castiel/Prophylaxis (1)
Sesc vote Rubicon (1)
Riley Poole unvote Castiel/Prophylaxis (0)
Bill Door vote Castiel/Prophylaxis (1)
Kalas vote Bill Door (1)
Moridin vote Castiel/Prophylaxis (2)
Typhon unvote Sesc vote Bill Door (2)
Rubicon vote Bill Door (3)
fontisian vote Castiel/Prophylaxis (3)
Prophylaxis vote Bill Door (4)
Moridin unvote Castiel/Prophylaxis vote Bill Door (5)

Sesc, Moridin and I stand out here.

 

This will be easy.


Prophylaxis

Uncle Stojil
Jwlk
Fenraellis
Riley Poole

Typhon
Rubicon
Kalas
Fontisian
Sesc
Moridin

Bill Door

Typhon is conf. mason, Rubicon and Kalas are confirmed to me because of interactions with Bill Door, Fontisian has generally been pro town.

Scumteam is Moridin and Sesc. Fontisian I can see going after if one of them flip town, but I'm /very/ sure that there's one scum between Moridin and Sesc.

We lynch through this pile:

Moridin
Sesc
Fontisian

preferably in that order.

Vote Moridin

---------- Post automerged at 06:36 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:33 PM ----------

My theory on the nightkills: WIFOM.

One of the reasons why I feel Sesc moves down to the "leaning scum" pile is how he keeps saying "why is Rubicon still alive" and as scum, he could just not kill Rubicon.

But Moridin is almost certainly scum, so I'm fine lynching him first.

 

Yeah, that was a mistake. I just lost a long post, was dead tired and still had a ton of work before I could sleep, and didn't check the votes like I meant to.

Honestly, though, I probably wouldn't have left it for more than an hour or so anyway. It's not like there was a flurry of activity like towards the end of Day 2. I left Day 2 with the thought that I'd made my case and would wake up to a lynch, and we all know what happened there. Bill Door was unlikely to post again given his playstyle so far, and I would have been okay with sacrificing a few hours in a seventy three hour game in exchange for a confirmed lynch on a player who was basically scumfirmed at that point based on my analysis, which I also posted.

I'm, unfortunately, much less convinced that Prophylaxis is scum based on Bill's flip. His Day 2 antics could have been down to bussing Castiel, but Day 3 had moved off the Castiel-Rubicon duality and he didn't really need to continue, especially once Castiel replaced out for Prophylaxis. This annoys me, but there it is.

I am, of course, unhappy with Rubicon's continued existence. We have two claimed power roles, Rubicon and Typhon. Fontisian has claimed (and generally felt) vanilla. As Rubicon said, if he isn't the doctor there has to be one more town power role - this feels like scum know Rubicon isn't the doctor, and is looking for said power role. Riley could, I suppose, fit that idea if one thought he was trying to lay low and play a cautious game.

If Rubicon is town, then scum (while they have no more reason to go after Typhon than they do Fontisian) want him dead, since they don't want to waste a nightlynch. Leaving him alive one day is a reasonable risk in order to plant suspicion into our minds. Leaving him alive two is questionable at best.

Of course, that's another rationale for killing Riley. Let the doctor live so town will end up lynching him, while picking targets that he's certain not to protect. Bleh.

I also don't get what Bill-Rubicon interactions Prophylaxis is referring to. I don't have the time now (and probably won't be back for a few hours as well), but the most I can see with a quick glance is the end of Day 2, where Bill switched off Rubicon rather easily, called his claim one of desperation but didn't switch to him or generally do anything and, as I said earlier, flat out stated "if Castiel flips scum we'll lynch Rubicon tomorrow" which could have implications if Prophylaxis is indeed town. Of course, as I said earlier, I'm not entirely sure how a world where Rubicon is scum and Castiel is town works, but I'll go back and look for anything that points one way or another.

 

@Moridin:

Aw, you're POEing yourself to death. How cute.

What do you think of Sesc?

Sesc: Are you going to do anything else than tunnel on Rubicon?

 

That's something, especially in conjunction with #91 and the beginning of #138. I'm going to keep looking, since I find Bill's actions wrt Rubicon towards Day 2 end (and his backing away from Rubicon at #286) worse than the posts above are good, though.

Sesc... #296 makes me feel like he isn't a BillDoor teammate. I still don't like how he switched off Rubicon towards Day 2 end, but honestly I feel he doesn't have a connection to the one scum we do have. Plus he and Rubicon have had a back and forth on Day 3 that makes me doubt there's a connection there either.

I'd like to hear his response to #195, as detailed in the first part of #326.

Kalas I'm sort of okay with, given Bill mentioned him as a scumread earlier and then put him on the scummy side of null. I don't think scum would name their own teammate unless they had to, lest they be forced to justify their pick later and inadvertently give others ammunition against their teammate. It could be a bus, but given Kalas was IIRC the first to call out Bill Door on Day 3, I doubt it.

Unfortunately, that doesn't leave us with much.

Fontisian I still feel is town, though I'd like to hear more from her. What did you mean by the end of #333?

Prophylaxis, as I said, I'm ambivalent on. Given the dearth of suspicions, I'm not writing him off based on the consideration that it might be a long con. Will follow up on that in a bit.

Typhon I still feel is town, nothing much changed there.

 

Okay.

Who do you think is the last two scum, in your opinion?

 

Like I said above, I'm left with you and Rubicon. Maybe Sesc or Kalas, but I don't like either of them as teammates for Bill. I'm not happy with that result, though, and although I have to run now I will reread the thread and get back with more. You/Castiel in particular I want to get a better handle on. I'll try to post a potential scumteam with links and reasoning by the end of the day (12 hours from now, so should be plenty of time).

 

Sounds good, even though I do think you're scum. Just squeezing a bit more info outta you.

Typhon: Seeing you viewing thread.

Do you want to lynch Moridin toDay?

If Moridin flips town: Next scumspects?
Same thing with scum.

I want Kalas to check in and Rubicon to start being useful. Like, Sesc and Rubicon have zero interactions with me.