I will post sometime in the next 24 hours, but I'm waiting for now for 2 reasons: one, I have a giant ass engineering project due at 3 tomorrow (roughly 13 hours), and exactly 0 percent of the code works. I'm kinda racing the clock, here. Secondly, I want to hear from the people who have yet to check in before I start giving any analysis to amount to anything, just to see what comes out.

I can't stay, but I'll glance for the next few hours.

 

Moridin: There are three people who either never voted for Bill Door or ony voted when it didn't matter (as with your hammer vote) and who never had Bill Door vote for them when it did matter. They are you, me and Sesc. I don't have the time to read through right now, but I'd put money on there being at least one scum here.

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Wait a minute. When did I say I was vanilla?

 

Huh. I'm sorry, I could have sworn you did, but I can't find it. Maybe I was having Dresden flashbacks, or thinking of someone else. Sorry about that.

Also, I'm back now and rereading the thread closely. Will have a scumteam in a bit.

 

@fontisian: Why are you lumping yourself in there? You know you're town.

(Or, are you scum?)

@Sesc: When are you going to start being useful?

 

As I've said, I don't think Bill Door/Castiel is likely. If Bill Door and Castiel were teammates and Rubicon was town, then Bill should have gone for Rubicon over Castiel. If all three of them were scummates, then Bill was setting up a dangerous game by saying he would vote for lynching Rubicon if Castiel flipped scum. As such, I think I'm comfortable, upon rereading, with setting aside Prophylaxis for now.

Rubicon, on the other hand, reads much worse. Bill, as I said, seemed to be setting him up for avoiding a lynch with the whole 'lynch Rubicon if Castiel flips scum' thing. The Rubicon-Bill Door dissonance is present, granted, but nothing particularly conclusive comes to mind, while Bill/Rubicon Day 2 is too bad to ignore, imo. But then we have #306, which I can't ignore given Bill wasn't that close to a lynch and pushing for a Castiel lynch could have easily been done (and pushing for a Castiel lynch would have resolved many of the issues I had stated I had with Rubicon). I suppose that could be explained by scum realising that Bill screwed up near Day 2 end, and deciding to pre-emptively bus him. Leaving Rubicon off for now to see what that world is like might be more informative, though. So Rubicon gets pushed back down the list, and we're back to square one (or rather, worse off, having at least partially ruled out one of the few eligible candidates).

On the plus side, setting aside Rubicon allows Sesc as a much more viable candidate. There's the voting analysis Fontisian picked up on, the tandem switch to Castiel (which is kind of stupid, but they were startlingly similar). Bill Door has twice mentioned Sesc as a null read, which is suspect in that it avoids committing either way (the first basically says 'he's not said much, not a fan' which is equivalent as far as actually saying anything about him goes). #296 is still a problem here, but it does follow after a Sesc/Bill Door consideration from Fontisian and could have been setup for a future bus. Again, his post focuses on how his suspicion on Bill Door is due to the switch away from Rubicon, and if Rubicon were to flip town that suspicion would become much less meaningful. So there's something - while it's a bit of a stretch, we can't well discard anyone who's clashed with Bill Door at any time or we discard everyone.

We need one more who'd be compatible with both Sesc/Rubicon and Bill to round out our scumteam. We have left Kalas, Fontisian, Typhon. Typhon I want to eliminate right off the bat because we don't have a counterclaim and his claim makes sense wrt Stojil's posting. Kalas and Fontisian. While Kalas initiated the suspicion on Bill Door, there wasn't really any substance behind the post beyond these, which don't say much of anything real on the matter. It could have, much like Rubicon, been a pre-emptive bus in case someone picked up on Bill's actions during Day 2 near end and ran with those suspicions. Kalas/Rubicon remains possible due to #271 and #273.

Bill hasn't really said much regarding Fontisian, but she doesn't seem a likely teammate for Sesc - a Font/Rubicon scumteam is possible because of #310 as well as #293 being built on the assumption that Rubicon is town. Font/Kalas is also an option due to the latter post writing him off. She did put a vote on Prophylaxis to keep a balance between him and Bill - on the one hand that's okay since locking in to one lynch is bad, but on the other it could be indicative of something more. If she is scum, the conclusion she reaches from #333 ends up being particularly cheeky.


At the end of the day, I like Bill Door/Sesc/Kalas. Rubicon remains a distinct possibility because despite a couple of posts that put him against Bill, him being town means I just cannot fathom what Bill was doing near Day 2 end. Fontisian is an outside shot, slightly less likely than Rubicon atm. Which makes quite the reversal from my previous post, I guess.

I've likely missed something here, or made an error somewhere along the line. Feel free to point it out. As of right now, this is where my suspicions are. Any thoughts?

 

What do you think of Bill Door voting Kalas in his first (real?) vote? Is this preemptive bussing?

Unvote, vote Sesc. You've had townie reactions to my voting. More interested in fontisian/Sesc/Kalas right now.

Sesc, contribute or get lynched.

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I'm going to reread/look at vote analysis sometime soon.

 

I presume you mean this?

At the time, the people 'buddying up to him' were me, Rubicon... yeah, that's it. Not sure how that translates. Plus, he justifies it quite differently later. It feels, like so many other votes/scumlists in this game, like something he did for the sake of doing it rather than any actual tell, which he admits isn't really present. Too many people buddying up to Kalas is silly (there aren't, and even if there are, questions and pressure would be more useful than a simple vote without anything even addressing Kalas in the post), and 'voting so he will say something' is the exact thing he did with Rubicon, and is once again a filler vote that can be removed the moment Kalas posts so much as a one liner.

I can easily see Bill Door putting a vote on Kalas with a half-thought justification just to have something to point back to in future days.

Sesc, a focus on Rubicon helps nobody. Which is besides the point because you aren't even focused on Rubicon - you're focused on other peoples' opinion of Rubicon. Lay out your issues with the guy. Ask him some questions, and sure, ask others questions about him too. Who do you think makes up the third of that scumteam (BillDoor/Rubicon)?

 

Hey guys, sorry for the minor afk. Spring semester started for me yesterday and there was some schedule juggling to be done.

Rewriting vote analysis, so its easier for me to look at.

Day 1:

Fenraellis (6): Sesc, Kalas, Fontisian, Castiel, Rubicon, Stojil
Castiel (5): Jwlk, Kaemrynn, Moridin, Bill Door, Riley Poole

Abstaining (1): Fenraellis

Day 2:

Rubicon (4): Moridin, Kalas, Riley Poole, Sesc
Castiel (4): Fontisian, Bill Door, Rubicon, Uncle Stojil
Kaemryn (1): Castiel

Abstaining: (1) Kaemrynn

Day 3:

Bill Door (5) Kalas, Typhon, Rubicon, Prophylaxis, Moridin
Prophylaxis (2) Bill Door, Fontisian
Rubicon (1) : Sesc

Abstaining (1) Riley Poole

Sesc is my scummiest read at the moment. His timing on moving onto the Fen wagon Day 1. Everything about his Day 2 end post. And today how he's tunneling on Rubicon is saying 'scum trying to give up as little info as possible' to me.

Moridin, voting record worries me a little. Especially the HL Day 3 vote. I liked how he's been following up on his posts, but looking back that could easily have been Moridin's posts + a little QT advice.

Rubicon, Sesc is either reverse busing him or scum have realized his protection method and are hitting odd targets trying to doubtcast. Either situation points to one thing though

Vote: Sesc

 

Sesc: These are all of the scenarios that I can think of.

Option 1: Rubicon is part of the main scum team and there is no doctor. He went out of his way to bus his teammate.

Option 2: Rubicon is a third faction (survivor maybe), Bill Door scanned him early on and thus scum don't consider him to be a priority target. There is no doctor.

Option 3: Rubicon is the doctor and scum have a roleblocker. They hope that by leaving him alive we will lynch him.

Option 4: Rubicon is the doctor and scum do not have a roleblocker. They are leaving him alive to get us to lynch him and aren't too worried about a blocked kill because of the day 2 no-lynch. (In the past two mini mafias, we've had 3 scum and 1 third faction member. If that holds true to this game, we are currently at 4-1-2. Mislynch today and we're at 2-1-2 or 3-2. Mislynch again and we lose with 1-2. Thus, scum can afford to potentially lose one kill, especially if it gets them a mislynch.)

Option 5: Rubicon is a third faction, but scum think he is the doctor and they have a roleblocker. They hope that by leaving him alive we will lynch him. There is no doctor.

Option 6: Rubicon is a third faction, but scum think he is the doctor and they do not have a roleblocker. They are leaving him alive to get us to lynch him and aren't too worried about a blocked kill because of the day 2 no-lynch. There is no doctor.

Option 7: Rubicon is town, but not the doctor and scum know it because they scanned him. There is no doctor, and Rubicon is completely insane.

So it comes down to whether we think Eido included a doctor role in the game. It is generally a vital part of a game, but the other roles aren't exactly normal. Now why don't you do some actual scum hunting?

You've caught me. Actually, I included my name in the original list for the sake of freedom of information and all that. But yeah, I do mean that there is probably scum between Moridin and Sesc.

I would believe you except for four things. 1. I was not vanilla in Dresden and you knew it, 2. Riley Poole was killed last night, 3. scum had a role cop and 4. I actually am vanilla.

Riley's death doesn't make sense unless scum were searching for power roles. Thus, I suspect that Bill Door scanned me on night 1 or 2, found out that I was vanilla and the scum team decided to let me live while they killed possible power roles. Then, knowing I'm vanilla, you slipped up today and tried to cover up with Dresden, a game where we happened to be on the same scum team. Add that to your reluctance to go after Bill Door until that hammer vote yesterday, and I think we have our second scum.

Vote Moridin

 

No, you weren't vanilla in Dresden, but you did claim vanilla. That's what I was referring to.

And yeah, guess I didn't really call out Bill Door until my hammer post.

Sesc: Will properly read and comment on your response in a bit.

 

Thoughts in order. Sesc's post is worth a good read, Iron Man 3 was great, I have class in 8 hours and we need posts by people that aren't in yellow from my votals. There's something fishy in the water and someone's attempting to make a play.

 

Sesc: Nice to know you're playing.

...This is about something I said to you earlier, isn't it? You have to understand that I don't remember half the things I say.

I disagree on the Bill Door wagon and I'm going to play the "if I were scum game" to explain. When the votes were 3-2, the best play for a scum player would have been to bump Bill Door up to four, or one away from the hard lynch. This would have given them town cred while encouraging everyone else to not vote for Bill Door in order to avoid an early day end. And if someone did hard lynch, they would walk away with a ton of town cred. You actually did this in Gotham Mafia in order to save Lochness, and you almost won the game because I trusted you afterwards.

Alright, you want to lynch me because I fit into a scumteam whether Rubicon is town or mafia. But you also say this:

So, Rubicon is probably town, but I should be lynched in part because of my association with him. Makes sense. (I feel like I should point that I was the first person to put Rubicon on my scum list on day 2, but if you think Rubicon is town that should actually be a negative :?)

But I agree that my posts look really bad with Bill Door's flip. I only addressed him about 4 times, and he only addressed me once to call me town (along with Moridin). Ew.

I did notice this when I was looking through the thread though:

It takes a special kind of wolf to name both of his teammates as his only strong town reads. So, Moridin and I both being scum is unlikely.

I didn't say "call out," I said "go after." There's a difference. Yes, you asked Bill Door a few questions, mostly encouraging him to elaborate on weak responces. At the same time, you put a bit of pressure on Sesc and Riley, asked Typhon a few questions, and talked over and over again about how you thought Castiel and Rubicon were scum. Any pressure you put on Bill Door was buried under your pressure on Castiel and Rubicon.

 

I'll read all this and post my thoughts tomorrow, pinky promise.

 

Please do. Whatever townfirming you have does not give you an excuse to lurk.

 

@Sesc: Your post flows nicely. You make a lot of good points. Post 350, however, does not gel with your suspicions. There's a building wagon on you and fonti re-initiates the wagon on his scum buddy Moridin? No. Not right at all.

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Actually, wait a second.

The fuck is this?

 

I'll post.longer when I'm not on my phone. Are you suggesting a 4man scum team?