Alright. I'm going to try to my best to provide some analysis. Brb, re-reading the whole thread.

 

Sorry I haven't been nearly as active as I would like. I've been swamped at work so every time I catch a few minutes I have just enough time to update myself on the thread, then it's back to work. I even got asked to come back from lunch early so bleh. I'll post some more before the deadline (I hope)

To answer Stojil really quickly: I think any of the top three bandwagons (if you can call them that) will reveal a lot of information simply because we'll be able to see who was right or wrong and then depending on that we can make some inferences on the rest. I can't say for 100% sure any one person but the one I think would reveal most info would (I feel shitty for saying this) but Schro because if he's guilty it shows us some strong town players but if he's just town than anyone picking on him is a suspect and we'll have a smaller pool to work from to narrow down more scum.

 

By my count at the moment schro has 7 votes, I have 4 so with 5 and a bit hours left in the day there's probably not going to be any other wagons taking off. I think that Schro is just the usual easy but wrong lynch that always happens on day 1.

I'm not going to bother going through all the points people, mostly Sesc, have raised against me since they're mostly just down to coincidences in the way stuff was said.

Assuming a 4 person scumteam, which I think is most likely with this number of players,I would suggest a scumteam of Aekiel, Typhon, Menace and either Rents or one of the 2 afks.

I lay out my reasons for Scum aekiel here.

As for Typhon, he didn't include Aekiel in his list of people he wanted to see more from(#65), despite the fact that Aekiel should have been there, he initailly skips Aek again (#98 ) before giving a completely null read. He lumps Menace and Aekiel together(#143) as people who acted scummy but have since moved town in his eyes, despite the fact he never called Aek on acting scumy and his minor call out on Menace seems to be resolved after one post.

Menace had like three pointless posts early on with that little interplay with Aekiel and pulp fiction quotes, then disappeared for a while. In his readwall he puts Aekiel down as town for minimal reasoning and his only comment on him was that his first post was bad, and he doesn't mention Typhon at all.

All three of them have lowish post counts but not low enough to raise suspicion, though you could say the same about me.

I would throw Rents there because despite his doing absolutely nothing just about the only read he had was to mention Aekiel out of the blue. Also his general not doing anything whatsoever.

 

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Accidentally closed the tab with my read wall analysis. Fuck. Anyway, a quick one this time because I have shit to do.

Readwalls are useful to getting peoples' opinions, which are all we have to base our accusations on on day one. Posting readwalls alleviates suspicion for day one because it means you have ties that can be used for/against you on day two+. Not sure how he missed this. Also, bad readwalls make for decent lynch targets at this stage.

Good catch here and I agree. Wetnurse gets shifted from derp town to potential scum.

I'll be keeping this in mind for later in the game.

Meh. Agreeing with Moridin, could be a sign of town accepting better reasoning, or scum wanting to avoid the aggressive player's attention. Leaning towards the former at this point. Typhon is swinging at the air and hoping to connect, imo.

I agree with him somewhat about Menace, but I'd prefer some more posts from him before establishing him on the town-scum scale. As it is I think that he's someone to keep in mind for later days.

Somewhat agree, mostly don't. BillDoor does look scummy as Sesc paints him, but I'm not particularly happy about him either. As far as I can tell, Sesc's initial reasoning for voting for Bill was entirely based on meta, which I disagree with on principle. I find his logic for the continued case against Bill to be rather weak as well.

Could be a link between Sesc and Typhon?

Most of Sesc's reasoning for suspecting Bill at this point is through a link with Kalas, yet Typhon has a null read on him. That's either a sign of blind faith in Sesc or possible collusion.

Agreed entirely.

I did see a potential link between Typhon and Fen, but this bit distances them a bit. Could be a reaction to people pointing out how bull headed Fen is being, if they're scum buddies.

And this goes the rest of the way to getting rid of the link. I'm pretty confident in my paranoid town read of Typhon now, though I do think his agreeing with Sesc as he did is suspicious.

Gonna update my scumlist as well. Gimme ten minutes.

 

Looking forward to Schro's analysis.

I think me continuing to push your early reaction is not likely to be productive - though I still think it's weird and hope others look at it - so let's approach things from another direction. Uncle Stojil asked you about Moridin, which I don't quite get. What do you think about Schro, Bill Door, Sesc and fontisian?

Was being flippant, but yeah, Menace's last couple posts were super townish. He's forward with his reads, his reads make sense, it doesn't read like a bunch of BS he made up, and I don't really see this "regurgitating other people's arguments" thing. I get it, but I don't see it. And he's taking strong positions, he's pressuring people, he's shrugging off pressure people put on him.

All the standard paranoia still applies. It's perfectly possible Menace is really good at crafting plausible-sounding wallposts and is just fooling me. I have a couple D1 townreads, but I reserve the right to lynch them at any moment if my read changes later.

Ironically, if Sesc is that accurate when you read him as "ridiculous" you should probably prefer him to be ridiculous here, too.

Why do you feel you need Fen's support to pressure me? If you think I'm scum, withdrawing your pressure before I even woke up this morning and have a chance to reply is definitely not going to do it.

Do you think Bill Door is scum - it doesn't sound like it in #143 - or are you just voting him for information?

I don't think this is particularly awful, but I do think you're quite possibly using posts like this as a way to appear to be contributing more than you are and convincing us you're not actually happy about the lack of activity.

 

Green = Town, the higher up being the stronger reads.
Yellow = Null.
Red = Scum, the lower down being the stronger reads.

Rubicon
Uncle Stojil
Typhon
Kalas
Fontisian
Moridin
BillDoor
Menace
Sesc
Wetnurse
SmileoftheKill
Fenraellis
Schrodinger

Kalas now has a place because I've gone through his posts and have liked them, overall. He tunnelled on Rubicon a bit, but I'm fairly sure he just got caught up in the game and the heat (I know that feeling; I haven't been properly dry in a fortnight >_>). That ended after he'd cooled down a bit.

As it is his posts give the impression of attempted aggressive scum hunting that went a little wrong, and his railing on Schrodinger is something I completely agree with. So Kalas goes high on my town reads at this point.

 

Aekiel, you completely missed me. Just saying.

 

Bill, current reads on Kalas / Wetnurse / Schro / Sesc?

 

Kalas - My early thinking was that he was town, and I would probably stick with that. The only real reason to have him down as scum would be for his not posting for like a day and a half, but there has been too much inactivity in this game for that to count.

Wetnurse - His readwall was terrible and completely lacking any strong opinions. When i asked him about Kalas he pulls a weird as fuck swap to having him down as his #1 scum target. Possible scum but he doesn't really fit into my current working scumteam so I'd put him down as derpy town.

Schro - I think he's done some stuff that was fairly bad but not neccessarily scummy, resulting in him becoming an easy target for people to attack. I don't think he's scum.

Sesc - Town. He's playing similarly to how he does every game I've seen him play as town.

 

Schro actually responded to my post so +town points in my books. Completely dependent on what he ends up posting however.

Bill Door I consider scummy, based on his considering me town and not, iirc, being one of those players that can gut feeling my alignment. He also didn't start the game as he normally does as scum. Not saying his start was towny, just that if he is scum there is likely a more experienced player in there as well doing a little coaching.

Sesc has barely been a blip on the radar but looking over it, pretty standard day 1 Sesc ie Day 1 boredom and tunneling on one suspicious individual. If town he'll shape up tomorrow.

fonti I can understand the early alarm bells that were going off, though I wasn't nearly as concerned as some. The two big posts 24ish hours ago were nice, as was the little schro post right before my own.

 

Oops, sorry about that.

Your read wall was decent, if a bit bland. You didn't say much that hadn't been said already by that point, which is a point against you. I don't like post 103, for reasons of not being willing to pressure people simply because they're already being pressured by others. Maybe you'll have a different insight that could reveal something.

Anyway, we only have three hours left and I'll be at work when the clock ticks over, so I'll state now that I'd prefer Schrodinger be lynched that BillDoor. While I see the position that his lynch would give more info, I think Bill is a good player and will be more useful to us alive than dead. Even if he does think I'm scum.

---------- Post automerged at 08:08 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:04 PM ----------

Damn it, getting distracted.

Moving on from that, your opinion on the bandwagons struck me as very indecisive (which it was). That doesn't particularly endear me to you at this stage. If you get back on before the end of day, I want you to pick three players you think could be in a scum team, with explanations.

So I'm going to stick with my vote on Schrodinger. He'll give us information, I think there's a pretty decent case against him (for day one anyway), and I don't want to lynch Bill.

 

Let me quote his whole post (you declared him town before his second one):

Already stated by Kalas and someone else I can't remember right now.

Weak rolefishing/derp-town pointing stuff to scum.

That had already been stated by me.

Already stated by everyone and their mother.

Same as above.

These were the questions:

#2 is indeed nonsense. #1 is okay-ish, #3 is good-ish.

No complaints, here, except the too many scummy players bit, with which I disagree.

Already stated by everyone, their mother and the kitchen sink.

Already stated by many.

Pretty vague and Moridin practically said the same, only in one sentence, but okay-ish.

*yawn* Already covered multiple times.

Stated already.

Bland, vague or already stated (again!) earlier in his own post.

---------- Post automerged at 07:29 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:18 PM ----------

The point of my question was to see what connections you pointed out, but I guess I could have worded it a bit differently to be more clear. If you have time before end of day, please answer that.

What about fontisian's?

Eido: vote tally?

 

The initial critic was part of my reason for voting him, the part when I said my vote was just a bit of further explanation. I didn't criticize so much as state my caution in trusting you based on your performance in the last game, where you did a very good job of acting town.

Plenty of other people were following up on Smile at the time. I agree that Schro is an easy target, hence why I didn't vote for him.

My reasoning was vague because there wasn't enough content to give any good specific reasoning at that point, it doesn't mean it wasn't valid.

I thought that Sesc criticism of the Aekiel bandwagon was strange at the time, so he asked about it, the question to Rents was to see if he would take the easy option of just agreeing with what was said, or if he's actually answer something. I asked Wetnurse about Kalas because the reasoning he had given for having Kalas as a town read didn't match up with what Kalas had done at that time, as shown by his quick 180 after I mentioned it.

I voted for Aekiel because I wanted to vote for him, not because of any bandwagon on him at the time. I stand by that vote too.

 

I'm stuck at work till after the game is over, but I have access to my phone. I can't really craft any long ass posts, but if there is some little way I can contribute let me know. I'll be monitoring it as much a I can.

 

Okay.

First off, Rubicon. I don't really have an impression of you from previous games so I don't really have an answer for you there. Still, even if you don't seem townish even in your most town games, that's hardly a reason to mark you down as town just for not feeling like town.

Now, the following is snippets from post-by-post analysis with specific focus on Schrodinger and then Smile. As such, it does not contain as detailed an analysis of the behaviour of other players - specifically Wetnurse, Rubicon, Bill Door, Fenraellis, Riley Poole and possibly Sesc.

Schrodinger

SmileOfTheKill

In case it wasn't obvious, a lot of these posts were written with a Bill Door/Rubicon/SmileOfTheKill/Fenraellis scumteam, with Riley Poole or Menace possibly subbing in for one of those or even being a fifth member (not sure how likely that is, but then there are no vanillas this game, which makes town stronger than usual). This suspicion developed towards the end of my Schrodinger analysis, thanks to Bill's and Fen's posts closely mirroring each other, especially #128, #141, #163 and #169.

This also stems from the realization that there's very little defense for Schrodinger. The best there is comes from Sesc and later Fenraellis - Bill Door as the other primary scum target means his defense of Schrodinger makes no sense if they are both scummates, and feels more like an attempt to build towncred by refusing to denounce the other major candidate just to get away from a lynch. It's possible that the Schrodinger lynch developed too fast for scum to formulate an effective counter, and they decided to just make the best of things. I do feel that would assume a bit too much luck for us to be viable, though.

Whatever the case, I feel that a Bill Door lynch makes the most sense here. It gives the most information regarding connections, and his alignment is one of the key aspects of my theory - if he's town, I'll need to revisit the whole thing and re-evaluate Schrodinger's chances of being scum. If he's scum, though, there's a whole wealth of connections between him and various players just based on what I saw peripherally during my Smile analysis.

I don't know what the current vote tally is, so I don't want to put in a vote. I'll go back to Eido's last votal and work forward from there, and post with my updated vote once I have that.

 

Caesar has replaced LochNess effective immediately.

Still seeking Jwlk replacement.

 

Schrodinger (6) Rents, Aekiel, Moridin, Menace, Rubicon, SmileOfTheKill
Wetnurse (2) Riley Poole, Kalas
Aekiel (1) Bill DOor
Menace (0)
Bill Door (4) Sesc, Uncle Stojil, Typhon, Fontisian
Kalas (1) Wetnurse
Rubicon (0)
Uncle Stojil (1) Schrodinger

Abstaining (3) Jwlk, LochNess, Fenraellis

With 18 alive, it is 10 to Hard Lynch and 6 to Soft Lynch

Okay, so Schrodinger is currently on 6, soft lynch. Me switching would put both Schrodinger and Bill on 5 each, which is both a tie and below the required amount for lynch. As such, I'm going to stay where I am unless someone else will vote Bill Door so we have a guaranteed lynch.

---------- Post automerged at 02:08 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:04 AM ----------

It's 2 AM here, guys. Somebody bail me out?

 

Moridin, I am in between keeping the lynch on Schro and moving to Bill Door.

I read your analysis, but you said very little about Schro or Smile. Leaving Smile out of it for two minutes because there's no wagon on him, make a case for Schro to indicate why we'd get better information if we lynch Bill instead.

 

Kalas, Riley, Wetnurse and Fen: Please get on a bandwagon. Same goes for Bill Door and Schro really, but I hope they'll have enough of a sense of self preservation to vote for the opposing bandwagon anyway.

Schro: This is great time to give us your reads.

To be honest, I'm a little reluctant to lynch Bill Door because he's very useful when he's town, but with the information Moridin pointed out I think we should lynch him.

 

Vote Count 1.3

Schrodinger (6) Rents, Aekiel, Moridin, Menace, Rubicon, SmileOfTheKill
Bill Door (4) Sesc, Uncle Stojil, Typhon, Fontisian
Wetnurse (2) Riley Poole, Kalas
Aekiel (1) Bill Door
Kalas (1) Wetnurse
Uncle Stojil (1) Schrodinger

Abstaining (3) Caesar, Fenraellis, Jwlk

With 18 alive, it is 10 to Hard Lynch and 6 to Soft Lynch.

Day End Timer