By definition Night Kills happen at night Lucky, i.e. after the Lynch.

 

I know, I tunneled on something that happened on the last Mafia I played that caused a Lynch to fail due to scum night action.

 

Currently, I'm wary of fontisian for being the last person to vote. Especially since her vote was the one that forced the no lynch. That could, however just be circumstantial. The person I'm really interested in is Sesc.

You were the person who could made the difference that forced the nl to a lynch.

You placed a vote tally that probably misled fontisian to think that we had soft lynch. Either you screwed up or you intentionally posted it to force the nl.

To top it off, you seemed to believe that Vira was town after her RR. Why the hell didn't you rescind?


Anyway, looking at the dead list, I think there is a vigilante in this game. People screwed up and had an nl. I don't think it's a coincidence that two of the people who were up for lynching on D1 died.

Either way, the decided to shoot 1 of the guys who were up for lynch so we might atleast have a semblance of a D1 lynch. We're just lucky that the scum hit the other guy (or Fishy guarded the intended target).

Lynch Vote : Sesc

 

@Luckylee: Don't be silly this isn't DLPhunt.

Track of the day: Press Pause by Pretty Lights

Important stuff in bolds.

SESC2013, kinda like KONY2012, only with real results

Post Counts

Turtwig: 4

1. RVS
2. Question about what it would take to hit town. Drew a bunch of flak because people read this as "he knows Ollie is town" or something.
3. The Innocent Until Proven Guilty school of mafia, from an entirely new player. Doesn't really support my argument for this view D1, but whatever it's not like I play mafia well or normally.
4. Claims that Fishy is right in the issue of replacing Ollie Rents if he doesn't perform. Possible read as soft-buddy, most likely bandwagon mentality.

My view: To me, all in all, not very scummy considering the circumstances? Fishy flipping town means that it's not scumclustering, which might not be too ineffective on D1 because coach/wine.

Alt view: Scum because transparent scumminess is usually scummy?

I tend to give D1/new players less flak for shit but honestly that might be the type of mentality I'm being exploited over?

Sesc: 23

1. Welcome to mafia shenanigans.
2. RVS stuff against Fishy, far beyond the tail end of RVS. Either timestalling, or RVS because RVS is fun. Considering Fishy being town, probably the latter. Caesar overreacts to this, Kalas backs it.

Lungsstuff #86: I said that Sesc/Turtwig was null because pretty much what I've said above, pretty much, only in thought form, which was a lot easier. This is the post when I first put Fishy into townlist.

Wetnursestuff #94: Claims Caesar's posting fillers, cautious town!fishy, null!sesc - talks about possible 3p?

fontisian and kalas have a clash about how to town, everyone pretty much believes lurking's probably best. kalas gets a bit passive aggressive, but it looks kosher.

font #118: first post when scum!sesc comes out of the woodwork - in retrospect it was inevitable.

Wetnurse #119: aggros font. This is probably important.

Fishy wants to hit lurker!vira.

Sacrifice #121: thinks that there's no chance of 3p, probably in response to Wetnurse. This type of interaction probably means that Sacrifice and Wetnurse are not scum together.

font #124: aggros sesc because aforementioned reasons, subscribes to

so a null-scum jackpot hammer of some sort?

Rents #125: aggros font for aggroing sesc? says that there's probably a cop and doctor, but considering fishy's role there might not actually be a real doctor. I have this sneaking, gut feeling that Rents might be, uh, whiteknighting. oh god wtf are you doing rents.

font #126: fights with rent's incoherency. sort of like the U.S. vs. Iraq.

Drunk!Lungspost: Accusing Rents of roleread things, possible soup mechanic? Possible roleblock mechanic? Considering closed setup, latter rings more true.

unless 3p is actually a thing, but I heavily doubt there's a souping 3p.

Asks font the made-sense-when-I-was-more-drunk question about what scum would do, though that's a little more loaded than uh, asking for a read wall? Idk, it made lots of sense at the time, my qt says jackshit about that.

null read on wetnurse. wetnurse looks a lot more scummy than he did at this point.

distaste on aggro vs. Vira. might be because I'm friends with vira. mostly likely because non-entity scum gets lynched too easily if lurking and posting vaguely scummy things, so obviously not scum. #mafialogic.

Sacrifice #129: disagrees with my hippie view of mafia. okay. I still defend the search for the truth in thread before resorting to a lynch to tell us things because honestly that's like the nuclear option. hitting scum on d1 is super super good.

fontwall #131: Won't kill Fishy or Wetnurse because wine. Clearly the scum is drinking the wine heavily, but only clear from here. Killlist is Sesc, Vira, Fishy, Caesar, Wetnurse because they're dangerous might be a thing for scumz.

notes Caesar's inactivity, absolves Wetnurse via meta, which could mean anything. town reads on a bunch of people I think might be town, which leads me to believe that these conclusions are self evident in some wayshapeform.

Sesc #133: talks about his qt, which is neutral, can be faked, and if he were scum, he might keep his own QT anyway?

Caesarwall #136: needs to explain guljons/sesc link in detail for me to buy it. pretty much copies a bunch of things font says. Seems like scummy things to me, Claims wetnurse is tunneling on font. Aggros fishy cautiously, then votes.

Lungspost #137: lots of hypothetical stuff. neither fishy nor vira are scum, so those hypos are garbage. I aggro Wetnurse. No responses.

Fishy #145: aggros sesc

Sesc #148: aggros Sacrifice, says that the only argument vs. Fishy/Lungs is that it's too obvious to be a thing. turns out it was too obvious to be a thing. lol. Doesn't agree with asking questions because that's a bad way to play mafia?

is he soft accusing me? idk, make up your mind?

ends with saying that Sacrifice is most!protown.

noautomerge: disagrees with sudden votes, which implies that he got ninja'd or something? confirmed in later post.

Sesc #161: thinks that abstinence is agreement. I don't know if that's necessarily true. Not voting means things too, but I nod and accept that it's probably better to build a case.

Fishy #162: still no read on Caesar, cautious null on Sesc, town? read on Wetnurse? okay. believes that I should say things rather than abstaining. okay I guess people think that.

Font #163: thinks Sesc is overreading. pushes me to vote. kk.

Sesc #164: doesn't like readwalls. I don't like that. but obviously low quality readwalls are stupid, but you could argue that of low quality posting in general?

#166: hard defends sacrifice.

Luckywall #167: expresses confusion and not much else. this is probably exactly the type of droids sesc doesn't like?

Lungspost #171: I'm really butthurt. I thought I voted Vira. I really did. :\ I go for Caesar/Vira as scummates, but Vira isn't scum so that falls apart maybe? I get mad at Luckylee for being derpy.

I have a mini exchange with Caesar which is probably kosher.

Sesc #179: I mean inactive meaning only certain people are active?

THEN VIRA ASPLODES IN A SHOWER OF WUT.

We get to #214 which is Day2 start.

Wetnurse #220: Again with the 3p. Talks about town vigilante and a possibility of 4 scum. I don't think the numbers check out for a good game, but whatever. I hate day-reaction posts because they tell me nearly nothing.

Font #222: kneejerks to dayreaction post. or pretends to.

Font #226: comes to the same conclusion I'm coming to here. Wetnurse/Caesar/Sesc

Sacrificemassivepost #235: comes to the conclusion of Sesc/Caesar/Rents

Wetnurse #243: Either bussing Sesc D2 or Sesc is a patsy and we're being played by scum like a fiddle. Fucking.

---------- Post automerged at 09:42 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:42 AM ----------

lol@me giving up on quotes and underlines.

 

This was way more than I expected. Thank you.

I also looked at these votes:
Sacrifice vote TMNTurtwig/Sesc(1)
Caesar unvote Luckylee (0) vote Wetnurse (1)
Caesar unvote Wetnurse (0)
fontisian unvote guljons (0)
Wetnurse vote fontisian (1)
Fishy Justice vote Vira (1)
fontisian vote TMNTurtwig/Sesc(2)
Rents vote fontisian (2)
Caesar vote Fishy Justice(2)
guljons vote fontisian (3)
Fishy Justice unvote Vira(0) vote Sesc(3)
Vira vote Fishy Justice (3)
Kalas unvote Lungs (0) vote Fishy Justice(4)

Caesar, Wetnurse, Rents, guljons and Kalas could all be defending Sesc by voting for other lynch candidates. Luckylee can also be considered a potential Sesc scummate because Sesc poked Lucky when he had a good chance of being lynched. I thought Wetnurse, Rents or guljons forming two parts of a three man scumteam was unlikely. Since Wetnurse's vote was not on a person already getting momemtum and Rents was, Rent's seems more likely to be a Sesc scummate.

In addition, Rents has a connection to Caesar, as Sacrifice pointed out. I'll add that Caesar attacked Luckylee for derpy posting, but ignored Rents' similar behavior. Thus, I could see them as scummates even if Sesc is town.

The major problem with a Sesc/Caesar/Rents scumteam is TMNTurtwig calling Rents town. If that was a scumslip, I'd expect it would be towards someone who is actually town.

Nah, Eido's vigilante's usually only fire after a mislynch, not a no-lynch. Interesting that attributed what looks to be a non-scum team kill (because why would they shoot Vira?) to town though.

I actually was making my own vote tally. I just screwed it up, and Sesc's vote tally matched mine because we apparently made the same mistake of counting Vira twice.

 

Now, I'm going to try and break down what happened during the Day One end and Night One.

Fact 1) A no-lynch occurred. With primary suspects
Fishy Justice, Vira, and fontisian.

Fact 2) Two bodies were found. Fishy Justice and Vira.

Fact 3) Fishy Justice and Vira were both at softlynch. Font was one vote short of softlynch

Fact 4) The no lynch occured because Font or/and Sesc, either or both of them, miscounted the votes, be it intentionally or accidentally.

-------------------------
I think we can all safely assume that scums have the ability to NK, especially in a closed setup like this.

The following are the possible scenarios:

Scenario 1) Sesc accidentally miscounted the votes, thanks to Vira voting Fishy twice without rescinding. That resulted in font maintaining her vote, causing a mislynch.

a)
Night time, we have a Vigilante kill and a scum kill, making both Vira and Fishy die.
Motives of the Vigilante would probably be that he/she feels that he/she has to ensure that there is at least some information for town since there was a no-lynch, hence he/she shot one of the lynch targets. Scums somehow, decided to shoot another one of the lynch targets. It is unclear that which one was killed by who.


b)

Vigilante killed two people at once. Scums did not kill. Perhaps the Vigilante, is able to kill multiple people in one night. If this is the case, the Vigilante probably have a limited kill amount, maybe, "you may only kill 2 people the entire game". The Vigilante, seeing that there was no lynch, decided to go trigger happy and kill both Vira and Fishy.

However, this would mean that scums passed up a chance to NK someone, which doesn't make any sense to me. Unless there is the condition that says "Scums may only NK someone every night beginning from Night Two", or "Scums may only NK someone every other night, not counting Night One".


Scenario 2)

In these scenarios, I wish to propose that there is a slight chance that there is this extra condition.

Extra condition: If there is no lynch, Scums have the ability to kill two players at one go.

a)

Sesc intentionally miscounted the votes, resulting in a situation where there is no lynch.

Scums kill both Fishy and Vira, leaving fontisian alive. In this situation, Sesc is scum. Knowing that he would be suspected the next day, he made use of the confusion in the Night One ending phase and made it so that there was a no lynch. Hence if he was lynched today, it would be a 2 lives for 1 trade. Also, it could also be to draw suspicion to fontisian, the only one who did not die.


b) This scenario contradicts 2a

Fontisian made use of Sesc's miscounting of the votes, resulting in no lynch. Note that she was also the last one to vote before Vira's second vote. Scums kill both Fishy and Vira. Fontisian was the one left alive. In this situation, town would question that, if Fontisian was in a scum team, would scums really kill the two other primary suspects? This would make it seem as though Fontisian was innocent. Also, Sesc would be suspected thanks to his post of miscount of votes.


*In the above two scenarios, we either do not have a Vigilante, or the Vigilante did nothing Night One.

------------------------------------

Out of the scenarios, 1a seems to be the most likely, if there are no rules like those I have mentioned. Although, I do not understand why scums would target someone who is already being suspected.

1b is likely to happen too. It will explain why the two people that died are the main lynch targets. If the kills were from town side, that would mean the Vigilante suspected both Vira and Fishy and decided that they both should go. This will be possible if scums have the conditions that I have stated, which does not seem to be all that unlikely, seeing that we have 12 players from the start. It will be able to drag out the game a little longer.

2a and 2b are the ones that can be considered, but seems rather unlikely. The "no-lynch allowing scums to kill two person" does not seem likely to exist, but that would explain any players that were hoping a no-lynch, be it secretly or openly.

---------- Post automerged at 10:29 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:22 PM ----------

Sorry. Scenario 1) Sesc accidentally miscounted the votes, thanks to Vira voting Fishy twice without rescinding. That resulted in font maintaining her vote, causing a NO LYNCH.

---------- Post automerged at 10:30 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:29 PM ----------

Hold on guys. there is a scenario 3 I missed out.

---------- Post automerged at 10:35 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:30 PM ----------

Actually no, it's not really an extra scenario, but just an add-on to each of the scenarios.
Fishy protected someone who was the target of the kill, be it NK or Vigilante kill
This will mean that someone targetted Vira, and a player X. Fishy successfully protected player X, taking the bullet. This will cause each of the scenarios to vary a bit, while making scenario 2a and 2b even more unlikely.

---------- Post automerged at 10:42 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:35 PM ----------

You seem awfully sure that Fishy wasn't the one killed by scum.

Vote: Fontisian

Explain yourself.

 

I think scum killed Fishy, either because Fishy was protecting the actual target or because Fishy's 11th hour reveal looked pretty convincing.

 

Very well. Assuming if it was the first scenario. If scum tried to kill the target, and Fishy protected him/her. Suppose that the target received a notification that Fishy protected his/her life, should he/she step out and declare that or not, and why?

Others may also answer this question after fontisian.

 

Right. I've been working on this on and off for the last few hours. I'll try to have one on Lungs thrown up by tonight.

Kalas:

First few posts are pretty standard early game/RVS stuff. Little bit of interplay with Lungs but nothing particularly eye-catching. Some meta questions.

Implies that he has suspicions of Fishy but only after Sesc brings it up. Doesn't elabourate on why. Worth noting.

Reaffirms suspicions of Fishy and brings up myself as a possible scum suspect. Not terribly committal and gives no reasoning but it's Day and there hasn't been a lot discussion so this is perhaps understandable.

Enters into a debate with font about the merits of self-lynching. Seems to misinterpret font's point (that you should endeavour to direct the lynch to anyone else, as, from your POV, it's less likely to hit town that way) as saying you should try to force a no lynch. He posts a lot of mechanics talk during this debate. Really, this seems like filler to me and a good way to distract town from actual scum-hunting. Towards the end of the debate, he makes a subtle attack on guljons. (Distancing?)

Finally offers some reasoning for his suspicion of Fishy. Interesting to note that a lot of that applies to his own posting at this point.

Pretty standard vote post, though the mention of guljons struck me as odd- he was never a lynch candidate.

Now things get interesting. Kalas piles a lot of pressure on Vira in these posts. However, he never follows up with a vote. Claims he was attempting to force Vira into posting more information but the context (end of day, possibility of tied lynch vote) strikes me as very odd.

Disagrees with Sacrifice removing his vote from Sesc, despite the fact that Sesc was never going to be lynched at that point and leaving it there would be effectively abstaining. This is probably the most concrete position Kalas has taken all game and even this is qualified. Then, when asked about a Caesar/Sesc/Rents scumteam by font, makes a subtle attack on me and also posits a Lungs/font/Sacrifice scum team.

Conclusion: Kalas has not adopted a single position he can't back track from. He's been generally non-committal and his behaviour at the end of Day 1 was odd, to say the least. TL;DR I think Kalas is scum. Potential scum buddies include Lungs, font, Sacrifice and guljons.

Vote Player: Kalas

Fake edit in response to Lungs: the guljons/Sesc thing was based around guljons meta-speculating that TMNT hadn't shared a QT with anyone and therefore was town.

Guljons: Please post.

Also, if there is something wrong with the formatting of this post I will cry.

---------- Post automerged at 16:02 ---------- Previous post was at 16:00 ----------

Not terribly committal and gives no reasoning but it's Day 1 and there hasn't been a lot discussion so this is perhaps understandable.

I am now weeping

 

A summary of his post 162 is basically as follows:

Caesar: Null.

Font: Null leaning scum.

Guljons: Clueless. Null leaning scum.

Kalas: Leaning scum.

Lucky: Null leaning scum.

Lungs: Null.

Rents: Null.

Sacrifice: playing normally. Null leaning Town.

Wetnurse: Null leaning town.

Sesc/TMNT: Derp. Null overall.

Vira: Leaning scum.

-------------------------------

It is likely that he protected either me or wetnurse, IF he wasn't directly killed. We were the only ones that he mentioned "Null leaning town".

If I was the Bodyguard, I obviously will not choose to protect those I find scummy, and will pick those I found leaning town, even if a little slightly.

Also, I will need to then protect a target that will most likely be killed. Let's take a look at the posts regarding me in Day One.

The legends I will be using are
+ for positive reads
- for negative reads
? for neutral reads

#71 Vira reads me town. +
#86 Lungs reads me null, and vaguely town +
#94 Wetnurse says that I am nonchalant about a town-lynch -
#128 Lungs isn't sure about my posts ?
#131 Fontisian reads me leaning town +
#136 Caesar reads me town +
#167 Luckylee reads me town +

and then the posts regarding wetnurse

#86 Lungs wants to lynch wetnurse for inactivity -
#89 I tell wetnurse that he only posted two posts -
#92 Caesar wants to lynch wetnurse for inactivity -
#128 Lungs find wetnurse null-town +
#131 Fontisians reads wetnurse null ?
#136 Caesar reads wetnurse null-town +
#167 Luckylee reads wetnurse scum -

Let's see. A Bodyguard must try to predict who scum will hit, and protect that person. Then here, a Bodyguard must put himself in the shoes of scums, and think from their angle. Here we have Sacrifice and Wetnurse. Sacrifice is pretty much town in many people's view point. Wetnurse has more people reading him negative.

Suppose I am scum, and I choose between these two players. I will choose the one that has a higher chance of becoming a lynch target to live, and kill the other one. Namely, this person has more people suspecting him, hence, I would let Wetnurse live, and kill Sacrifice.

Now that we have gone through how scum mind works, we go back to the Bodyguard perspective. Who is more likely to be hit? Sacrifice.

There you have your answer, if Fishy protected anyone, it's probably me who was protected.

---------- Post automerged at 12:39 AM ---------- Previous post was at 12:37 AM ----------

I would like to note that, apparently, the "scum mind" I mentioned in this post seemingly does not apply to this game. I am merely trying to imagine what Fishy might be thinking at that point of time.

I have no idea why in the world would scum target someone who was already a lynch target. Leaving them alive would make town waste more time the next day discussing about it.

 

Seeing as you're online Sacrifice, would mind giving me your top three scum suspects?

---------- Post automerged at 17:43 ---------- Previous post was at 17:42 ----------

*Would you mind*

What is wrong with me? :facepalm

 

I don't see why not. We'd get a cleared towny without giving scum any role info. The only risk would be scum claiming that they recieved a protect to get town cred.

Other people (especially Sesc): I'll respond after I get out of class.

 

Top 3? I don't really know. Allow me to post it in another format.

These are the following people I find scummy:

Kalas

The first post that ticked my scumdar. I found that question really off. It sounds as if he wanted to pin scum on me for something I have not said/done. I unvoted Sesc in order to break a tie vote, because, my stand was "absolutely avoid a no-lynch" on Day One. Leaving my vote on Sesc would be as good as abstaining when we had like 3 other targets nearing soft lynch. Funny that he called me out for that.

Sesc

For the reasons I have stated in my earlier posts. TMNTurtwig and stuff. The unfortunate thing is well, he is not TMNTurtwig himself, he cannot answer what TMNTurtwig was thinking.


Vira

But he's dead. and flipped town. So oh how wrong I was.
------------------------------------

Those I find dangerous, but not particularly scummy:

Lungs
Fontisian

The both of them are very active in thread. If scum ever controls the thread, town will have a really bad time. Lungs has been posting walls after walls, which I don't know what to make of his posts currently.

Fontisian's activities are generally pro-town. She appears to be actively scumhunting. However she is basically controlling the thread, and if she happens to be scum, then we are all screwed big time.

---------- Post automerged at 01:18 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:16 AM ----------

and right, I do not like Fontisian's post #245. Not one bit.

 

Thanks Sacrifice.

Sesc: what's your opinion on Lungs?

---------- Post automerged at 18:58 ---------- Previous post was at 18:39 ----------

Ebwop: Anything to say Kalas?

 

A lot actually. You missed (skipped?) my suspicions of you being scum for one. Anyway

1) The majority of my Fishy/Sacrifice suspicion is based on phrasing. When I mentioned this previously I thought you were being obtuse. Now I'm just thinking its not something you give a lot of thought too.

2) Vira shit: what she posted at days end was bad. 201 especially. If that had happened earlier I very well may have switched over. As it was I was invested in Fishy and, by Sesc's count, my switching would result in a tie vote scenario.

@Fishy: If you gunna reveal think about doing it a little earlier

3) I hate everything about 251. Like its just terrible. I'm just straining my brain to figure out the scum thought train that resulted in it.

More incoming when I get home.

---------- Post automerged at 04:23 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:21 PM ----------

Also mechanics discussion relevant as the scenario I described somehow happened with Vira.

 

Could have sworn I mentioned that at some point.

---------- Post automerged at 20:39 ---------- Previous post was at 20:27 ----------

Actually, I'd like to add that my problem with Sesc's initial vote for Fishy was that he just dropped in, said "Fishy Justice is mafia, k? Bye" and voted. Votes without reasoning are never good, IMO. The way he and you reacted then left me thinking that it was something bigger than phrasing, that I'd missed a massive scum tell somehow. Seriously, the amount of time I spent pouring over Fishy's posts...

---------- Post automerged at 20:42 ---------- Previous post was at 20:39 ----------

As I've just noticed your automerge I'd like to point out that the fact that it happened does not make your previous filler any less fillerish.

---------- Post automerged at 21:14 ---------- Previous post was at 20:42 ----------

Font: would you mind making a case against Sacrifice?

 

Assumptions: Sesc, Luckylee and I are town. In this scenario, all of the main candidates were town.
Initial thoughts:
Caesar’s vote and unvote for Wetnurse still looks bad.
The Kalas-Lungs byplay could be indicative of a scumteam.
Lungs refusal to vote for anyone looks really scummy.
Sacrifice’s pressure on Sesc could be an opportunistic attempt to get rid of a good player.

Let's look at the final votes:
Vira (4): LuckyLee, Sesc, Fishy Justice, Sacrifice
Fishy Justice (4): Caesar, Kalas, Fontisian, Vira
Fontisian (3): Wetnurse, Rents, Guljons

Abstaining (1): Lungs

I would expect to see some scum on each wagon, which looks really bad for Sacrifice and bad for Caesar and Kalas. Caesar being scum means that Wetnurse is more likely to be scum and Kalas is less likely.

Lungs is hard to judge because I don't think I've played with him before. Thus, it's hard to determine if his pressure on Caesar, with its basis on Sesc being scum, actually makes Caesar more or less likely to be scum. Similarly, I'm not sure if he would buddy a scummate as much as he has with Sacrifice. However, he hasn't buddied Sacrifice as much as he's buddied me or Fishy, so I'd say Lungs being scum makes it more likely that Sacrifice is also scum.

Kalas/Sacrifice and Kalas/Caesar interactions make them less likely to be teammates. A Kalas and Lungs scumteam is possible. A Lungs/Sacrifice/Kalas scumteam is highly unlikely.

tl:dr If Sesc and Lucky are town, I’d take a very close look at Lungs, Caesar, Sacrifice and Kalas, in that order, with one of Wetnurse, Rents or guljons (but definitely not more than one of them) possibly subbing in.

fake edit for Caesar: One case against Sacrifice coming up. In return, I'd like to see you consider Wetnurse.

 

No problem.