"Before you speak, ask yourself, is it kind, is it necessary, is it true, does it improve on the silence?"

-- Shirdi Sai Baba​

Current Vote Total:

Bill Door (6): Zeitgeist (#497), Moridin (#499), Sesc (#593), Vira (#603), Luckylee (#605), Prophylaxis (#607)
Zeitgeist (4): Bill Door (#500), Fontisian (#533), blab (#569), Dermon (#625)

Abstaining: Caesar

It requires 6 to lynch, 8 to auto-hammer.

As always, updated information can be found in the status document.

As of this post, day 3 has 5 hours and 23 minutes remaining

=-=-=-=-=-=


Prophylaxis voted Fontisian (#492)
Fontisian voted Vira (#494)
Sesc voted Probellum (#495)
Zeitgeist voted Bill Door (#497)
Moridin voted Bill Door (#499)
Bill Door voted Zeitgeist (#500)
Dermon voted Luckylee (#503)
Luckylee voted Dermon (#516)
Vira voted Dermon (#518)
blab voted Moridin (#520)
Fontisian voted Zeitgeist (#533) | Previous Target: Vira
blab voted Zeitgeist (#569) | Previous Target: Moridin
Sesc voted Bill Door (#593) | Previous Target: Probellum
Vira voted Bill Door (#603) | Previous Target: Dermon
Luckylee voted Bill Door (#605) | Previous Target: Dermon
Prophylaxis voted Bill Door (#607) | Previous Target: Fontisian
Dermon voted Zeitgeist (#625) | Previous Target: Luckylee

 

BD and fontisian are distancing from each other, just in time for a BD lynch. Fonty, this doesn't make your case any better. Moreover, that waste of an extension reminds me of a stall tactic more than anything else. My wagon is stupid because blab/Probellum and Dermon are using inferences that a scum!Oracle would have read the card and done exactly what the card recommends a town!Oracle do. That is extremely fallacious reasoning: under Occam's razor, the most simple explanation is most likely to be the real reason, and that is I, as a town Oracle, read the bloody card and did what it recommended a town!Oracle should do.

Indeed, I decided that the town needs to steer the discussion in the right direction through a process of elimination. With both Sesc and I ruled out as scum candidates, our possible Witches are easier to find.

Moreover, I am hoping that the Angels protect either me or Sesc over the next Night, because the Witches will try to kill either of us. My secondary ability puts an expiration date on my presence at any rate.

Dermon reminds me of a derp townie, although he could potentially be a sinister Witch. His buddying of fontisian is exactly why my wagon is stupid: a lot of it boils down to Straw Man's Arguments and Ad Hominem rebuttals. At least we can lynch Probellum/blab, Dermon, and fontisian after this Night. Good grief.

 

Enough bullshit. Explain these sentences, becuase right now, they're making zero sense.

Don't bring in the Razor if it doesn't support you. There are two options here: 1. You, as a town!oracle, read only part of the advice on the card and decided to mindlessly reveal without thinking through any of the consequences.

2. You, as a scum!oracle, or teammate of a scum!oracle, read only part of the advice on the card and used that as blueprint to fake your townplay.

Which is more likely under Occam's Razor, Zeit?

1. One person out of eleven does not add much to a process of elimination. 2. You are not townfirmed. Repeating it does not make it true.

1.If angels protect anyone other than Sesc toNight, I will have to hurt something. 2. Demon curses are a thing, as you are no doubt aware.

Your information about the archangel card, in a bizzarre world where you are town, would removed any chance of Sesc surviving the night. There's no way you're town, because if you were, you would have never shared that information.

You are resorting to fallacy arguments because they sound impressive and you have no actual point to make. For example, if we're to say: "You're guilty of argument for repetition, begining the question, incomplete comparison, moral high ground fallacy and proof by verbosity," the statement would be true, but would add absolutely nothing to my argument.

And you've dodged the question again. Why did Probellum might have be an acolyte to Rubicon's priest?

---------- Post automerged at 09:30 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:06 PM ----------

Proph: Does this count as a mention of me by Rubicon? I just noticed it when I was going through Rubicon and Typhon's posts.

---------- Post automerged at 09:41 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:30 PM ----------

Zeit: If you're telling the truth about ArchAngel being used last Night, instead of Night 1, then either Aek decided not to go through with this plan or there weren't three scum on Aek's wagon.

The final wagon consisted of:
Aekiel (8): Bill Door (#84), Typhon (#99), Luckylee (#120), Zeitgeist (#140), Probellum (#170), Fontisian (#213), Dermon (#268), Uncle Stojil (#271)
So, either Aek decided not to go forward with his plan, Typhon, Lucky and Zeit aren't all scum, or Zeit is lying. That's ... not really helpful at all.

 

I'm just reading through and ugh.

I think this is probably one of the only times I haven't been confident in a DLP game. In Tiny Hunt 3, it was pretty easy as scum since I knew everyone's alignment and I could just avoid commenting on player's alignments and that helped keep my paranoia under check.

Right now, I would love to see a Bill flip and re-evaluate the situation from there, but there's no role reveal on death, and I have no idea if my conf'biasing Bill Door/font/???/Rubicon scumteam is actually correct or not, or if I'm leading town off a cliff. I guess you can call this entire post a fencesit, but I really just want to justify my reads with words, because I think I have one or two irrational reads on there.

I still have a very strong gut scum read on font, but I'm having trouble substiating that with evidence beyond her first few posts. I think that Luckylee is my strongest town read, but after that it all drops. I've liked Moridin's posts but I'm not sure of his scum meta.

My gut is saying Zeitgeist is town, but I have absolutely no idea what to make of the role reveal and I'll probably look over that again at Night. Caesar's been lurking. I liked the lack of self awareness from Typhon but Vira's posts haven't been pinging anything for me. I've paid next-to-no attention to Dermon, but I still think that the Probellum slot (blab) had a very genuine earlier post.

Bill Door is just.. kind of there by PoE. I haven't been looking very deeply at his posts, but I've skimmed them and he's just not giving me any townpoints (also, see the phonepost I did back).

And font might just be my most conflicted read all game. I think it's probably because I'm looking at her long posts and thinking "wow" and most of her later stuff hasn't really been that scummy, but I'm worried I'm conf'biasing it up, interpreting all of her recent posts as scummy in a vacuum w/no real reasoning, or chalking it to "font's improved substantially throughout this year and she's very cunning".

Just.. bleh. I'm not very confident in my reads at all, and I haven't been able to put the time in to poke people and get better reads, and the no role flip on death is really messing up my analysis tools.

 

Typhon/Vira
I’m skipping a couple posts because they aren’t particular relevant. If anyone feels that I’m unfairly representing Typhon and Vira by skipping them, let me know.

Post 91: Rubicon chainsaw defends Typhon. Notice most of the post is devoted to calling Sesc scum, most likely because Rubicon didn't want to outright defend Typhon.

Post 99: Four notable things.
1. The beginning is very self-aware: "I know before I even post this that somebody will jump up and down and point out that this is a fence sitting answer, and in truth it is."
2. Typhon went from a slight scum read on Aekiel, to voting for him because he pressured Zeit and Luckylee. He didn't actual defend Zeit and Lucky, but instead called them "weaker players."
3. He "very tentatively" likes Rubicon, and justifies this read by saying Rubicon was "attempting to apply a little pressure." The interesting thing here is that he felt the need to justify a townish read of Rubicon, but not his stronger town reads.
4.The general wishy-washiness of his language ("I can see this going either way," "I'd be tentative to condemn over one questionable incident," "At best, he needs to pay more attention. At worst, he's scum attempting to use our disregard for him," "Even so, I still had him at null," " I don't agree with all of the opinions he listed, but I like it overall. A few more like this and I'd be willing to call him a tentative town lean.") is something I called him on in Battle School (where he was scum) and regret not following up on it there.
5. He said "my vote goes to you until we get some real content and explanation that fits better than simply preying on the stragglers for town cred."

Post 119: Typhon used 1000+ words to respond to Sesc’s pressure. Most of them are unnecessary self-depreciation. He proceeds to pressure no one.
Post 122 is an alright on follow up Aekiel.

Post 156:

Doubtcasting Stojil and Sesc, aka the two strongest players.

Typhon didn't bother to explain how his simplification of Moridin's readwall was misinterpreted, possibly becuase he couldn't.

There's a bit of weak pressure on Dermon and Zeit.

The interesting thing is the way he doesn't follow up on Aekiel and ducks out of addressing Rubicon, while still name dropping him.

Post 173:

Key word here is "perceived." If Typhon really believed Aek was scum, he would have just said "Aek's scummy plan."

Typhon agreed with Rubicon’s assertion that “One, you're saying there that nothing alignment-indicative has been posted so far,” but completely ignored the second argument “Two, you're letting us all know that no one has role slipped yet.” This is because the second argument was blatantly ridiculous and Typhon didn’t want to have to throw Rubicon under the bus.

Two sentences are indicative of Typhon’s mindset here:

The first sentence shows that Typhon is thinking about the way Rubicon is being connected to him, and very unhappy that if one of them goes down, the other has a good chance of following. The second shows that he’s unhappy with Rubicon for being needlessly obstructive with Stojil, when he could have “just answer[ed] the question” and escaped scrutiny.

Saying “and I’m town” on it’s unnecessary, and already implied by the beginning of the sentence. The “quite” pushes the statement over the edge into scum needlessly adding words to show that he’s obviously quite town.

Typhon also only gave his opinion of Rubicon based on the single post, most likely because he didn’t not want to have to judge the rest of Rubicon’s content and risk them being further linked to each other.

Post 176: In which Typhon backs off of Aekiel but keeps his vote on him, and weakly attacks Luckylee and Zeit, despite defending them as easy targets earlier.

Post 201:

Typhon went back to being willing to lynch Aekiel because of unspecified “connections.”

Post 212:

With his connections stuff blown out of the water by the fact that there aren’t flips, Typhon calls Zeit, Lucky, Kalas and Wetnurse more lynchable, and then goes right back Aekiel because of a “re-read.” He does not state which posts in the re-read made him want to lynch Aekiel, most likely because he made this up on the spot to save his own neck.

Yeah, I’m regretting not throwing my weight behind the Typhon wagon on Day 1. Sorry Sesc. (And then I glance over Aek’s posts, and the regret goes away.)

Post 327: Vira calls Zeit the most useless person of Day 2, with reasons. She then calls him the most scummy and votes for him, but doesn’t explain how useless=scummy, which is particularly interesting considering her stupid!=scummy line to be toDay defending Zeit.

Post 349:

Vira admits that she only skimmed Day 1. I could see a towny doing this only if they were pressed for time or Ollie. Scum, on the other hand, wouldn’t really gain anything from reading through Day 1 closely and might not want to put in all the effort. So, was Vira pressed for time? The long-ass Day 2 summarization says she was not. The last sentence reads like doubtcasting, but that may just be a defensive reaction on my part.

Post 382 and 401:

Vira goes from calling on people to consolidate, to striking out to attack Rubicon. I would say that the Rubicon vote works in her favor if it weren’t for three things: 1. The reasoning behind rescinding from Zeit based on his bandwagon should have come much earlier in the day. Right here, it reads as an excuse for Vira to get of Zeit’s wagon and make Bill Door’s wagon the larger of the two. 2.I don’t think she actually expected the attack on Rubicon to go anyway, because there was so little activity earlier in the Day, so little of the Day left, and a dearth of pressure on Rubicon. 3.The call not to “waste” extensions encouraged people not extend the day, making the odds of a lynch picking up on Rubicon less likely. Add in the fact that Rubicon was the leeroy and already connected to Vira and the weak language (Rubicon is trolling. Let’s lynch him.), and this looks like an attempt at distancing.

Post 412: This is long-ass post that summarizes all of Day 2. The scummy thing here is that this post must have been really time consuming to write, but it didn’t add all that much to the argument. The tl:dr at the end is the only decent part. Vira could have used that time to read Day 1 closely, as that would have given here the context behind a lot of the Day 2 activity and really helped a townie with scumhunt. Vira created the readwall instead because it looks good, whereas reading Day 1 would only help with scumhuntingand doesn’t help how she looks in the eyes of the town.

Post 432:

The votes at the time were:
Zeitgeist (2): Caesar (#332), Probellum (#33
Bill Door (2): Fontisian (#342), Sesc (#376)
Probellum (1): Kalas (#341)
Kalas (2): Rubicon (#307), Uncle Stojil (#423)
Rubicon (2): Ruckyree (#396), Vira (#401)
Ruckyree (1): Zeitgeist (#420)

Vira decided to ignore Zeit’s place as a possible lynch, most likely because he’s her scumbuddy, and she knew more people supported a Bill Door lynch over a Rubicon lynch.

Post 439:

More support to the choice between Bill Door and Rubicon, again with the knowledge that there was more support behind a Bill Door lynch. Look at the votes: If everyone on Zeit and Kalas had switched off, it looked like at least three of them would have voted for Bill Door. Caesar had already expressed suspicion of Bill Door, Rubicon would vote to save himself, and Stojil had already been voting for Bill Door. If one of Probellum, Zeit, Wetnurse or Dermon had switched to Bill Door as well, the Bill Door lynch would have looked inevitable enough for the eighth voter to hop on.

Oh hey, a couple minutes later, guess what happens? Zeit switches his vote to Bill Door with some twisted logic. Then Vira switches to Bill Door a few minutes after that.

tl:dr There is no tl:dr. Read the post.

---------- Post automerged at 10:27 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:21 PM ----------

Proph: Can you elaborate on Typhon's early lack of self-awareness? I actually picked up on the opposite.

 

Sigh. I don't even know what to make of Proph's post, it seems so defeatist and Idk if thats scummy or not. So Fonti, assuming Zeit/Vira are your top scum reads, who is the third? And what of Bill Door?

 

Also, you missed this.

---------- Post automerged at 10:32 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:27 PM ----------

You.

That might have been a bit excessive. I think Bill Door is most likely town in a scum Vira and Zeit world, because they both seriously tried to get him lynched in a way that was unlikely to be bussing.

Dermon and Probellum/blab are both towny based on their interactions with Rubicon, Moridin looks a hell of a lot better after his posts against Zeit (though that's counteracted a bit by his vote being on Bill Door), and Sesc is confirmed.

So yeah, you, with an outside chance of Proph or Caesar.

 

Ouch. Your case is actually pretty good, but I'm still leaning towards believing Zeit's claim. I just don't see scum taking such a risky ploy so early in the game.

 

Every time you say this I want to strangle you. Say it with me Lucky: There was no risk in Zeit's roleclaim.

 

There is? It's pretty obvious he'll be nk'd if he's town, if he isn't nk'd he's probably scum. Pretty risky imo.

 

Oh. That actually makes some sense. On the other hand, have you read Mini Mafia 3? Rubicon was scum and claimed doc in a setup without a doc. That's part of the logic that allowed him to skate to endgame.

 

W/e at this point I'm pretty confident BD is scum, but the rest of my reads are being trampled on, which sucks. Guessing stuff will be clearer tomorrow. I'd consider changing my vote, but a no lynch is bad for town. And I'm doubting anyone else is gonna change their vote at this point.

---------- Post automerged at 11:26 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:24 PM ----------

Also, considering BD's purely reactive posting he obviously doesn't care at all, I see no reason not to lynch him.

 

Mori: What do you think of all this?

 

Just woke up so I'm going to need a while to go through everything properly, but honestly I'm not too keen on switching away from Bill at this point. While you make a good case, Bill's play has been bad enough throughout the game (just look at his response to today's wagon) that he's scummier than Zeit.

#606 Strawmanning. Still no scumhunting.

#617 switches his earlier scumread Dermon to a scummy side of null for... 'lack of content'. How does lack of content improve a player's position? Read on Proph is still 'hasn't impressed me'. (Incidentally, Font pops up as a scumread and possible scummate for Proph here).

#628 Instead of giving reasons why it works, he says there's no reason why it doesn't work. Bad reasoning and lack of an actual case.

One thing though, the 'town Oracle would be nk'd so it doesn't make sense to reveal as town' is a self defeating argument. Now that scum know who the Oracle is and that his info's out there, there isn't much reason to NK him. He is, obviously, far from confirmed town, and there's enough wariness regarding him that 1) he could still die to a lynch and 2) even his second reveal (1 witch left) will be treated with suspicion.

Which... basically means I'm sticking with Bill but still find Zeit suspicious. Argh. Oh well. In any case, there's a little under an hour left. If Bill or someone else wants to convince me to switch to Zeit (and there's another person here to switch with) I'm willing to listen, but so far I'm not convinced.

 

/me shrugs. My problem with Bill is that he isn't the one making a case, Fonti is. And she has good points, say what you will about Zeit but he is at least trying to look pro active to town. I'm pretty conflicted atm >.>

 

Mori: I agree with your points against Bill, but Zeit's bull is so much worse and Bill doesn't fit into a Rubicon/Vira/Zeit scum team.

Heh, it reminds me of this:

 

Bill Door was lynched and killed.

No new votes happened since the last votal: https://forums.darklordpotter.net/showpost.php?p=687018&postcount=641

Night will last for the next 24 hours.

 

filler filler filler