Intermission:

Aka coven really wants to know how you survived so please tell us--complete with very deliberate window dressing as to how totally pro-town this is.

The Lynching of Dermon: Vol. II

When we last left our hero, he had just lynched town Aekiel. (So did most of the town.) But will he do better Day 2?

Casual Dermon defense, just slipped in there, no biggie.

This is taken from Rubicon's rampaging manifesto against Kalas.

Meanwhile, he have this counter argument from actual townsville.

Hrgh.

Hrrrgh.

Hrrrrrrrrrrgh.

 

Actually this was me attacking Zeit because he was pissing me off with his play style. But feel free to keep misinterpreting things.

 

The Lynching of Dermon: Vol. III

You don't say..

This is a dead horse, but hell if I'm not gonna beat it anyway. This is probably the single biggest evidence.

I just reeks of painfully deliberate "look at my totally reasonable town train of thought." The catch is, he miscalculated, and way underplayed his reaction. Every real town player gasped, cringed, and planted their foreheads firmly against their desks.

This isn't town. This isn't in the same ballpark as town. Wait, there's a ballpark? Hell, this thought town was a casserole dinner.

And, under the bus you go!

I will say that this makes Dermon look back independent of whether or not Luckylee is actually a scumbuddy or not; it reads bad for Dermon from either vantage point.

Note: I think both these were fake votes, that neither side actually believed had much of a chance of working.

I'm not sure I buy any part of this.

"Aw gee, fellas... Why, the only reason I reacted in such a funny way was, it blew my mind THAT much! I was SHOCKED, I was SCRAMBLING!"

"...wait, crap, that is the exact opposite of how I reacted. Oops."

Again, we see Dermon continually maintaining this very consistent arms-length relationship with Luckylee.

This benign, non-commital reads support my current model. (Rubicon/Bill Door/Dermon/Luckylee) If you want me to focus more on them, I can.

Read this a couple of times. I think this is a super scummy post, and fits any Bill Door + Dermon scum world.

THIS.

I strongly disagree. I concur with previous sentiment that Rubicon was trying to white-knight Zeitgeist; THAT felt like white-knighting to me. His interactions with Dermon, particularly Day 1, felt like experienced scum safely working off of an ally to assert control over the game's flow.

This. Bill Door's final words including a mysterious, unaccounted boost in Dermon's status slipped in for no reason?

Remember, we believe (or at least I do) that Witches hold Gravedigger!

---------- Post automerged at 19:09 ---------- Previous post was at 18:58 ----------

I actually have you are a sub-50% odds of being scum right now, even if you are the second highest after Dermon. What I consider the most likely possibility right now is only one possibility.

**********

Just so we all step back a bit and are on the same page re: Oracle...

Suppose for a second that Zeit lives through the night.

If he gets notified, we confirm that Bill Door and Dermon were both scum, and that one Witch remains. Either this is true, or Zeit is scum.

If he does not get notified, we know that one of those was not scum and at least 2 Witches remain. (From my PoV, this means rejecting a lot of working models and starting over.) Either this is true, or Zeit is scum.

If the Witches chose to kill Zeit tonight, that townconfirms him (along with everything that implies) and communicates that they specifically did not want us to get his info. It also costs them what most consider to be a prime mislynchable target, even if I don't.

So whether or not Zeit lives or dies tonight, it's a win-win. Town gains significant information in all outcomes.

 

Why are you so sure that the witches hold Gravedigger? Sesc easily could have been the Gravedigger, Stojil could have been the gravedigger, there might not even be a grave digger in game. Why are you so confident about that?

Also, Dermon's been tunneling on me since forever, and I can't comprehend why Rubi thought he could push a lynch on me. Maybe because I had a wagon on me earlier in the game, but that ended. I feel like I'm being represented by the actions of others and it's pissing me off.

 

@ChoPi
thanks
I had LuckyLee as unlikely to be on a team with scum!Bill, because of his vote yesterday. Can you shed some light on the "luckylee more likely to be scum in a scum!Bill world"? What made you discard Wetnurse/Proph. Because I still don't like.

I'm not sure I can agree on your read on Zeit, given that you only analyse language and I still think the info he gave was -town and Zeit should have known that. But I'm fine with leaving him alone toDay(grr.).

I am going to look at Zeit/Caesar combinations.

 

Do you really want me to answer this?

I mean, the actual answer is safe, but it concerns me that you asked.

I have a good role read on Sesc, actually, andhave him narrowed down to a few specific options accordingly. I won't tell you whether they are offensive or defensive, but they are not info, not Gravedigger. Under no circumstances will I be giving more information on this read or where I found it.

Stojil could be Gravedigger, but I sort of doubt it. Aekiel *could* be Gravedigger, but I highly doubt it.

Why didn't you point out the possibility of town Bill Door being Gravedigger?

The odds are extremely high that the Gravedigger is scum. After Prophylaxis posts (assuming he isn't claiming GD either), I have more to say on this topic.

I can agree with this. When I penciled you in as 4th scum to Rubi/Bill/Dermon, it had far more to do with their behaviors than your own. This is, among other things, why we are definitely lynching Dermon first.

I would not be comfortable lynching you without going over things again, including a full group discussion.

---------- Post automerged at 19:50 ---------- Previous post was at 19:34 ----------

I actually had Luckylee significantly higher (more likely to be scum) before getting to that vote on my second read. I went back and read through that exchange a couple of time, and lowered Luckylee's odds accordingly.

I still think he fits better than anyone else, but this is based more on Day 1 and 2. I agree that behavior Day 3 (and Day 4) is more important, which is why I want to move forward a bit before letting my opinions on him solidify.

I originally thought Wetnurse was scum while reading Day 1 actually, but it was a weak feeling that got replaced by more evidence-based behaviors. I have liked most of Prophylaxis's posts. The "wait, you mean scum don't have daychat?" mishap seemed genuine and unforced.

That said, this is one of the few player seats I haven't taken a hard look at their longitutinal vote records...

It's not so much language analyze (though were was a lot of that) as mindset analysis. Would scum post what he did, when he did, as he did? Would they think to do that? To what end? I can find not explanation that fits, whereas genuine derp town fits like a glove.

I am disinclined to believe that a scum player would commit, unprompted, to a huge attention-drawing derp-claim conspiracy for no tangible gain other than wine.

Given my time constraints and Caesar's sparse postings, I've thought almost none about what people's attitudes towards my player seat are.

It really feels like I just dropped into this game as an entirely new player, rather than replacing someone--like an outside observer who just suddenly started voting.

 

Fontisian, I have no idea why you voted for me off the bat, but I guess that simply solidifies my belief that you, blab/Probellum, and Dermon are Witches. Allons-y!

I'm not entirely sure that Luckylee is a Witch, mainly because I filed him under the same alignment as Kalas. Personally, I'd like to defenestrate Dermon and fontisian first. However, we'll cross the Luckylee bridge when we come to it.

ChocoPi, what are your thoughts on fontisian and blab-Probellum? Am I barking up the wrong tree? Also, finally, somebody gets why I made my Oracle reveal and why I was pretty pleased with it.

Also, Dermon, you were either an idiotic townsperson or fonty's fellow Witch in my books. Hopefully, it's the latter for the town's sake.

Lynch vote: Dermon

 

Because Imo, Bill Door was scum. If he was town grave digger and didn't claim, he's an idiot.

 

I actually think that particular vote was a relatively null read. Fontisian's unhappiness with you has been a common theme, which was both extreme and unresolved Day 3.

Neutral. (~25% scum, each) If you pointed a gun to my head and made me kill one, at this moment I'd kill blab simply because there is less to go on.

Also, for the record I think your reveal was a bad move.

Just so we're on the same page for sure, you are going to explicitly tell us if the one-witch-left notification DID OR DIDN'T go off every day in the future?

 

Sorry for the long delay.

I'll be reading Day 3 soon and chime in with thoughts.

 

Granted, I agree with this. I do not think it is possible Bill Door was town Gravedigger.

Unless Prophylaxis solves all of this by claiming Gravedigger, that means there are only 3 (dead) townies who could have been Gravedigger (1 being dubious and me betting 1 more isn't possible), but 8 player seats (including Bill's) that could be scum Gravedigger. (Not counting me, or alternatively, yourself.)

If you accept my inclinations, all else being equal there is a 88.89% chance that the Gravedigger was scum, and a 77.78% chance that person is still alive.

 

Not the Gravedigger.

Try again.

 

Sorry, I'd rather not.

Alright guys, we have concluded the following, for sure:

If the Gravedigger is alive, they are a Witch.

If anyone needs us to walk through this, we'll be happy to do so.

What this means is, if you are the Apprentice, you should step forward and claim under the following circumstances: (where all are true)

1. You selected Gravedigger.
2. The Gravedigger is still alive.
3. The Gravedigger isn't Dermon, who we are presumably about to lynch anyway.

Remember, we can afford 2 town reveals. The knowledge that either them or you has to be a Witch is worth this cost.

Like, if Luckylee or fontisian or blab is the Gravedigger, well hell--we can wrap this up before dinner.

**********

Parallel to this, if you are a town Assassin, feel free to claim as well, unconditionally! Obviously, you don't have to worry about being Assassinated!

This would let town narrow down the endgame permanent to one of two cases:
1) You are a Witch
2) Scum doesn't have an Assassin

The benefit of this outweighs the small advantage non-Assassin scum gleans from narrowing down roles.

Any thoughts on these sentiments?

 

Yeah, I will. For today, Kai gave me no info, which means more than one witch remain.

 

Yup, there is currently no possible universe with 1 Witch remaining. Well, no reasonable one.

 

I'm ok with both.

Rubicon/Ceasar/Zeit/xyz is possible, but ehhh, but that's not enough.

 

Just saw this, and -

You listed me as one of your biggest scumspects yesterDay. Why aren't you putting my name there instead of xyz?

 

I still think you're suspicious

Rubicon/Ceasar/Zeit/xyz is possible, but ehhh, but that's not enough.

You can look at it yourself

 

So you think Dermon is town, and Chocolate/Zeit are are pulling the wool over our eyes?

 

...That's not what I said.
I thought it was worth to specifically check that combination for obvious reasons. I found that it's possible, (there is nothing in their interactions that makes this improbable), but that's it.
And yes, if ChoPi is scum, Dermon is very likely town.