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~/* Witchhunt Game 3 *\~ (DRAW)

Discussion in 'Little Italy' started by KaiDASH, Dec 18, 2013.

  1. Moridin

    Moridin Minister of Magic DLP Supporter

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    If Rubicon/Bill/Lucky/Font, then Font put in a kill on DoB Proph, who might well have, had he not survived, killed her in turn. That's an instant loss for scum. The only ways for that to not happen are 1) if Proph survives in which case Font sacrifices a night kill for the ability to claim towncred or 2) if Proph doesn't target her.

    1) is a gamble on Proph being protected which isn't really that reliable and 2) is similarly a gamble given their interactions. I'm not sure how either one is something scum would want to take a chance with.
     
  2. blab

    blab Second Year

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    Alright, you just ignored my post, so specifically:
    1) Why can't scum!fontisian be the gambler?
    2) If fontisian is town, why didn't the kill go through? when:
    a) scum had plenty of opportunity to plan and relay information via Lucky
    b) the archangel was used, given that we now know 3 scum were on Aekiels wagon (we know the alignment of everybody off the wagon)

    I don't know, I can see this making sense as a last ditch effort from scum!font given that she had a high chance to get lynched today, while this doesn't make much sense from any other scumteam given 2)
     
  3. fontisian

    fontisian Slug Club Member

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    blab: Let's say I'm scum and the gambler. I shoot Proph, and he shoots me. Kai then announces that I was shot in the night and didn't die, and since no one in their right mind would think I was protected by the angels when I'm a prime scum!suspect, everyone would immediately know that I lied about my role and lynch me. Your scenario doesn't make sense.

    As for why the kill didn't go through, either scum had communication issues or Zeit lied about the use of ArchAngel. The second option is unlikely, IMO, because scum have shot two of the three people cleared by the Aekiel's plan with the ArchAngel.

    My vote will most likely be going to one of Dermon and blab toDay, but I intend to do a full re-read before deciding. There is a risk that Zeit is lying, and he's one of two scum remaining.
     
  4. blab

    blab Second Year

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    I forgot that this would happen...
    Then any plan by you would have to rely on the Angels protecting Proph. It's a good guess that the angels would protect Proph if the Demons curse Moridin, but still a huge risk. I guess it makes still sort of sense given that how likely it was that you would be lynched if scum!you killed any other player, but

    Well, scum!Moridin could have already won the game and scum!Proph makes absolutly no sense so we have as good as it gets confirmation that (if Aekiel remembered) the signal happened.

    I can see scum messing up, it's more likely then any other scumteam doing this on purpose, given that it is a trade of confusion vs. 2 townies dead. Maybe I am overestimating the ability of the last scum(s) to plan (or Lucky to communicate), though. Or maybe a Zeit/xyz team decided that the opportunity to put us at 3 vs. 2 would be to good to pass up and that it was worth the risk.

    Eh, I hoped I missed something more substantial on you given that if you couldn't be scum alone you would basically be townfirmed and I would be ok with an assasin plan

    In the event that I am lynched who should I give my extra-life to? I am currently favoring Proph, but since my ability activates openly I can't see any downside to asking.
     
  5. Dermon

    Dermon Muggle

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    Ok, seeing as I'm going to be traveling all day tomorrow, I thought it would be prudent to get things down now.

    I don't think Font would be careless enough to try to kill Proph. If she is scum, she would have taken his role into account, checked his reads, and likely as the last one left, decided against it. She's too damn competent to take the risk of killing him.

    That said, by process of elimination, only Vira is left. I think Font's case on her D3 hit some good points (minus the Bill Door interactions, now that he's confirmed scum), especially concerning her interactions with Rubicon.

    However, the same strength of case reminds me to keep Font on the list of possible scum, since she believes that pushing a lynch with conviction is a very strong town-tell, and as I mentioned before, is competent. Blab also raises a good case that she might be Gambler, and knew she couldn't be killed last Night.

    Vote: Vira

    If the game isn't over when Vira dies, I go back to Font. I'm off to bed now.
     
  6. fontisian

    fontisian Slug Club Member

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    Dermon, dear, why can't blab be scum? And why are you assuming that Luckylee and Zeit can't be teammates because Lucky defended him?
     
  7. blab

    blab Second Year

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    @Dermon: Alright let's assume Vira is scum: then please tell me how a Rubicon/Lucky/Bill/Vira team makes sense (look at for example how Lucky and Vira pushed Bill versus Zeit from 2 vs. 3 to 4 vs. 3, or look at Vira's overall record.)
    I think it doesn't make sense, therefore Vira can only be scum with Zeit. Therefore to me a Vira lynch is strictly inferior to a Zeit lynch.

    @fontisian, I don't see where Dermon said this.
    I still think that from scum!font's perspective this isn't an entirely unreasonable gambit. Tell me a strategy for scum!font that would have better chances of winning then scum!font trying to get town!cred by killing Proph.
     
  8. KaiDASH

    KaiDASH Auror DLP Supporter

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    ~24 hour warning.
     
  9. Zeitgeist

    Zeitgeist High Inquisitor

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    At least three Witches are on the Aekiel wagon. That means the last Witch voted for Aek. It is not me, it probably is not fontisian. That leaves Vira, Dermon, and blab. Out of these three, lynching blab is the safest as if he is telling the truth, he can give an extra life to Proph, our likely townie, and lynch either Vira or Dermon afterwards.

    Tl;dr, lynching blab as the last Witch offers the town the least risk. Hence. I propose we start with him.

    lynch vote: blab

     
  10. blab

    blab Second Year

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    Ehm, I'd like to call for a bit more activity, please?

    Zeit, again (and if Dermon doesn't do it), explain to me how scum!Vira makes sense from your perspective in light of day 3.

    Proph, is your analysis still incoming?

    currently, my lynch order goes: fontisian, Zeit, Dermon/Vira.

    Can anyone who thinks that the nightkill on Proph makes fontisian less likely to be scum tell me what choice would have made more sense for scum!fontisian? (considering the support for a font lynch voiced yesterDay)
     
  11. Moridin

    Moridin Minister of Magic DLP Supporter

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    Dermon would have made plenty of sense, tbh. Removing town judge in view of declining activity would be a definite plus, and surviving a NK wouldn't really have helped her case at all.
     
  12. Vira

    Vira Third Year ~ Prestige ~

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    You know what would be nice? If Kai posted a votecount.
     
  13. KaiDASH

    KaiDASH Auror DLP Supporter

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    Current Vote Total:

    Blab (2): Vira (#972), Zeitgeist (#989)
    Vira (1): Dermon (#985)

    Abstaining: Blab, Fontisian, Moridin, Prophylaxis

    It requires 4 to lynch, 5 to auto-hammer.

    As always, updated information can be found in the status document.
    =-=-=-=-=-=

    Vira voted Fontisian (#962)
    Prophylaxis voted Fontisian (#964)
    Vira unvoted Fontisian (#967)
    Prophylaxis unvoted Fontisian (#969)
    Vira voted Blab (#972)
    Dermon voted Vira (#985)
    Zeitgeist voted Blab (#989)
     
  14. Vira

    Vira Third Year ~ Prestige ~

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    This is ridiculous. Blab, Font, Moridin, Proph, if you're town as you say, vote.
     
  15. blab

    blab Second Year

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    And then what? proph vira zeit all mentioned being ok with a font lynch yesterday.
     
  16. fontisian

    fontisian Slug Club Member

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    Emphasis mine.

    A while ago, I was scum on another site. I was the last living member of the scum team on Day 3 and I regularly complained about the only player who suspected me at one point to Dermon. My word choice: "X is too fucking competent."

    Now we have Dermon using a slightly less explicit version of that to describe me. Maybe he forgot where the words came from, or maybe it just slipped in when he was going for an emotional responce. Either way, it's enough for me to want him dead.

    Then there's the way he didn't even mention blab when talking about potential scum, while agreeing with blab's gambler theory (even though blab has already acknowledged the issues with it) and attacking me for attacking people with conviction, which is something I try to do regardless of my alignment (as he should be well aware).

    Vote: Dermon

    blab: 1. Dermon has stated that he considers Lucky and Zeit unaligned pairs because Lucky defended Zeit. 2. Nine times out ten, last night would have ended with Proph and I dead. It's just sheer luck that it didn't turn out that way.

    ---------- Post automerged at 06:52 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:51 PM ----------

    blab: Why isn't your vote on me?
     
  17. blab

    blab Second Year

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    Because I want to look at the thread again with a Zeit/xyz team in mind.
    And I'm also waiting on Proph's analysis. It's not like I'm hiding what I think.


    @Vira: That's cool. Do you mind contributing something, too?
     
  18. Prophylaxis

    Prophylaxis Squib

    Joined:
    May 4, 2013
    Messages:
    8
    Alright, let's solve this game today.

    Gamestate right now.

    Chocolate Pi
    Sesc
    Kalas
    Aekiel
    Stojil

    Prophylaxis


    fontisian
    Dermon
    Vira
    Moridin
    blab
    Zeitgeist

    Rubicon
    Bill Door
    Luckylee


    Moridin is town, or he would have killed all of us via Assassin.

    I've had a townread on Zeit ever since Rubicon flipped scum, and ChocoPi heavily defended him. Plus, there's the Oracle claim and I've saw the Zeit/Lucky unaligned pairs thing. He's town.

    Prophylaxis
    Moridin
    Zeitgeist

    fontisian
    Dermon
    Vira
    blab

    I do not think that fontisian would shoot me as a claimed DoB.

    blab replaced Probellum, correct? I remember Probellum having a super-genuine post somewhere in the middle of Day 1/Day 2, IIRC?

    From my perspective, the game is:

    Prophylaxis
    Moridin
    Zeitgeist

    fontisian
    blab

    Vira
    Dermon

    We have three mislynches to work with (7 people alive, one scum left). High-risk, high-reward is probably lynching Moridin and using him to Assassin!kill Dermon and Vira. That leaves us with Zeit, font, blab, and I going into Night going into Night, which should, and we can probably solve the game from there.

    Or we can just regular lynch Dermon and Vira, which is an option.

    Would like to win this game today, so I'm down for a Vira or Dermon lynch, as it's all PoE at this point. I think that if I reread the thread and looked at the Day 4/Day 5 posts (yes, this is me admitting I haven't the thread in-depth), then we could probably find some way to cover all bases and win the game.

    At this point, I want people to Ctrl-F the thread and do the interaction thing I did at the beginning of Day 3 for Luckylee, Rubicon, and Bill Door, to Vira and Dermon. I would but I'm not sure how much time I have tonight.

    Vote Dermon

    Need to reread but looking at the last couple of pages he's the best default PoE lynch at this point.
     
  19. Vira

    Vira Third Year ~ Prestige ~

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    Alright, fine. I only went off of Dermon because CPi defended him, but Dermon has been weird all game.

    Rescind Vote.

    Lynch Vote: Dermon.


    Let's see what happens at the end of day.
     
  20. Prophylaxis

    Prophylaxis Squib

    Joined:
    May 4, 2013
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    8
    How does anyone feel about a Moridin lynch, matching Dermon and Vira to their roles?

    (this only really works if you're sold on blab being town, and my PoE processes)
     
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