Yeah, that was aimed at the thread in general. If Proph wants to give us his opinion on the matter, I wouldn't say no. As for Citrus, I think he's generally okay. There wouldn't be two scum in jail, and ika's bad enough. If he flips town, I'll revisit both Citrus and Zennith, but until then Citrus has been decent. Purely playstyle wise too I'd put him at a moderate town lean.

 

I'm out tomorrow afternoon and evening. Birthday celebration.

I may post tomorrow morning.

Good night.

 

Don't know precisely what that translates to in terms of hours, but we have less than a day so there's that to consider. Your second vote shouldn't be needed to reach lynch, so that's fine I guess.

 

Titus, if you have time before you log off, when did you receive a message from ika? During the day?

 

Message is sent at end of day. I have already prepared my message.

 

So... it goes even if you die? Or you don't plan to die?

 

Titus

This is mostly aimed at Riley since I think most people agree Titus is town.

I think her interactions with Zeitgeist and ika are *too* good to be bussing. Like, I could maybe imagine her being able to fake her own interactions with Zeit, but I can't imagine him faking his responses. (I also think Zeitgeist's pressure on her reads as extremely fake. It's all exaggerated and made up. When you actually know someone is scum, you don't need to invent bullshit meta arguments like the one in #53 to attack them.)

There's also this:

If Titus helped ika write that response, why did she point this out? It's not something anyone else would have picked up on. If she thought the tone of voice was going to be so different that people would see something wrong, why didn't she just tell him to write it more naturally?

Comparing her interactions here with her interactions with her buddies in these games (one two) suggests she's probably town. In those games, she either didn't mention her buddies, or she town-read them, or she kept them in the nullish-town range. At least one of those links is a perfect scum game: She won without losing a single buddy.

In this game, she was voting Zeitgeist from early on, and is one of the main reasons we're lynching ika today. (Even fontisian said she was trusting Titus on that read.)

She's also a double-voter, which is probably a town role. This is the smallest thing though because it's modgaming a bit and guessing at things we can't know. I do think it means she's not a third party, though, which makes her interactions with scum more important.

Riley Poole

Riley is lynched in almost every game, so I'd be surprised if he makes it to the end of this one. His problem is he doesn't know how to look town as town. He is always accused of being over-defensive. He's used the "people always read me as scum so I'm just going to do XYZ" line at least once before as town, and probably more. He asks filler questions. He uses his night powers suboptimally (although to be fair, font's gold ended up being reasonably important).

On the other hand:

1) He has had strong opinions and reads and has stuck to them even when pressured. Whether you agree with these opinions is irrelevant. The reads are there and have a clear progression.

2) His posts have a clearly visible line of reasoning, even though that reasoning has holes in it. His pressure on me in his first few posts looked like someone genuinely nervous about me, and was probably not scum-Riley thinking he could actually get me mislynched or something. His pressure on Citrus is also reasonable and the points he made were good IMO.

3) Riley knew asking about ice cream in #147 was not what blab wanted from him. Why did he deliberately do something that he knew people would jump him for? It's basically him saying, "You want me to interact with people, even though I don't think I need to? Okay, I'll ask a pointless question about ice cream. Look, I'm interacting. Happy?" As scum, it would be trivial to invent a fake question here (especially if scum have daychat) or maybe strike back at blab as counter-pressure. Or just find some other way to back down. Instead, he's basically just being stubborn.

4) He would not explain the actions of scum-ika in #128 and #133 (not even for alignment, but for the code issue) if they were buddies. Nor would he explicitly say he wants to derail the ika wagon in #460, #476, or that he thinks ika is probably town. If he did try to do these things, which would be completely out-of-character, his reasoning and ideas would be weaker.

5) His reaction to ika's "hammer" pretty much clears him in my mind. Riley does not react this well to his second buddy in a row getting themself killed. It's way too natural, way too responsive. The reaction to font dying was good, too.

6) Much smaller, but the bragging about having caught Zeitgeist is also something I wouldn't expect from him.

Also this:

If Riley is scum, he would presumably have been part of the process writing that response for ika, or at least have checked in the scum QT or jail QT to understand what it meant. I do not believe this is faked.

Zennith

I read Zennith as moderately town.

The defense of Zeitgeist was too over-the-top and seemed to have reasoning to it. The way he got back in my face and said I was just being "reactive" while Zeitgeist was being reasonable or thinking things through seemed real. The fact of the matter is that when you're scum and both you and your buddy come under fire in the first two pages of a game, you probably don't make statements like this.

He's been way more confident and responsive under pressure than I'd expect. Especially during the whole thing with his claim. He seemed genuine.

His role will probably get him killed anyway unless scum are insane and want a jailkeeper in LyLo.

Citrus

I don't have a strong town-read on Citrus, but I'd call him town for two reasons. First, because 2 scum + 1 townie in a neighborhood is kind of crazy. Possible, but weird. Second, because he was one of the people putting pressure on both scum. Third, because of comments like this:

...which is a pretty laid-back and natural reaction.

Luckylee

If he shoots who we tell him to tonight, he's town.

I've felt he was reasonably town all game by meta. Reasoning to his posts, and calm and comfortable under pressure. Like when font asked him if he was scum, or when I pressured him about his position on blab. He had reasoning for the position even though it was flawed. He updated his read in response to blab explaining himself. Overall, it just feels like he's approaching the game with a town mindset.

What pissed me off was when fontisian died and he was like, "Oh well that sucks let's end day early and I'll shoot another townie". But overall I think his reaction was just a derp town reaction. It seems to fit with the posts leading up to it, joking around about hammering ika.

Maiden

Maiden's posts seem well-reasoned and more importantly, there's no tone of manipulation to her posts. She attacked ika in #351 which is a big mark in her favor. Later, she said "Ika's comment really pissed me off" which seems like an odd way of bussing. There's a progression to her reads, for example, she starts out suspicious of me and eventually moves to seeing me as strongly town as I adjusted my play. Defense in #431 is good.

This is in response to me saying ika was scum, and feels more like natural inquisitiveness than like she's defending him. (It seems unlikely she would risk connecting herself to scum-ika at this point anyway.)

As font said, Occam's Razor is that Maiden read up to Zeit's claim, concluded he was town, and went to look for the people voting him. She didn't know Zeitgeist was scum. I don't personally believe this is faked, I realize some of you disagree, but considering the rest of her posts sound natural, to me she's the person to look at last after everyone else has flipped town.

There's another apparent town-slip in #498.

She responds to Citrus implying he might have a PR by asking what it is. Rather ballsy for scum since there's certainly been talk in the scum QT about trying to discover people's roles. And she just says "well what is yours?".

#799 certainly rules out a Riley/Maiden team, if anyone thought that was a possibility.

I also like her post above about win conditions because it shows she's actually doing research and investigating these things, not just pretending to care.

Custer

I think Custer disappeared right as we started pressuring him and right as ika starting flailing.

This post is terrible and close to being a scum claim, especially if Zennith and Sloth are town which they probably are. SK hunting w/out a second kill, pursuing the same theory as dead confirmed scum, saying that one of {town, scum} is scum and he'll decide which later.

His "reads" on fontisian, me, and Titus in his first post conclude by saying basically all of us could be very town, or very scum. He just doesn't know. Sloth looks town, but Custer is concerned because... he agrees with Sloth's reads. He thinks fontisian and Sloth are unaligned, so... he wants to see one of their flips? But he just called them both town? And he thinks Lucky is probably town, but wants to lynch him for his playstyle... leaving that open as an option.

I think this indicates a guilty conscience more than his previous statements.

A small thing, but I don't know why town would bother with this.

I'd like to hear more about the difference between 'anti-scum' and 'pro-town' behavior. He reaches this conclusion because it's "the tone he gets from her posts" - terrible. What does this even mean? What does her saying she's confirmed town have to do with it? You could view that as scummy, but then you leap to saying she's an SK?

Previous games have included a third party, therefore this one does?
What stuff can Titus do that makes him think this?

Moridin / Nemrut

The only good thing I could say about this slot is that Moridin responded reasonably well to being jumped over his "slip" about the jail chat. That said, I think it's pretty easy for scum to respond well to arguments they know are flawed.

Nemrut had 3 posts which manage to say almost nothing alignment-indicative, except to call Irdiumstern scummy for pushing him. Spends a lot of time saying things that are possibly intended to show how little he knows about scum roles, e.g. speculating about whether scum can soup, asking the mod questions about gold in the thread instead of in his QT, asking people what Zeit's role was anyway etc. His setup speculation -- the majority of his content -- is pretty awful.

There's also the phrasing "really stalling this game" which is weird because the game was not stalled at all.

There's nothing town in Moridin's interactions with ika. I also don't like his read on fontisian at all. He says he "doesn't like reading her", can't read her, etc. It's waffly and noncommital. His other reads are slightly better but seem to be repeating what others say a lot, e.g. echoing what some of us have said about blab, pointing out the same things I did about Custer, etc. He has another noncommital read on Irdiumstern, just saying that he doesn't know what people don't like about them.

I'm staring at this question and trying to think of any town motivation for asking it. The scum motivation is pretty clear, though.

Irdiumstern

He responds well to pressure. Reasonable response to fontisian in #9, followed by a bit of pressure on her. Reasonable responses to Zeitgeist, although not especially indicative of whether they're both scum. Reasonable responses to Sloth later.

His back-and-forth with Zennith starting at #114 is probably the towniest thing he's done.

Reads in #459 are concrete and there seems to be a line of reasoning there.

Not much interesting interaction with Zeitgeist or ika to judge him by.

Lean town, but frankly it wouldn't surprise me that much if he were scum. I'd probably support vigging him to be sure.

blab

I think I was wrong about blab. I just went through all of his posts in detail. He is clearly scumhunting, there's reasoning, consistency, he was on both scum, he chose to vote ika over several easy alternatives, etc. His response to being suggested as a vig target is pretty good.

He opened the game by trying to come up with a plan to optimize our use of gold. This is, in some ways, what Nemrut was trying to do, only blab is much more concrete about it (sending gold between confirmed townies, a mass gold claim, etc.) and he only spends half of his post talking about it before getting down to real content. I like the concreteness because it shows he's actually been thinking it through and trying to find pro-town ideas, which he would have little reason to do as scum.

#177 is actually a really good post, choosing to vote ika over Sloth even after fontisian laid out a long case for voting Sloth. There is a small chance that all three of them are scum, but the reasoning is good: He points out for example that Zeitgeist set up a convoluted "either-or" between me and Sloth, and concludes that we're more likely both town.

Here's another person who didn't understand ika's interview response, when I would expect scum to understand if they helped write it.

Small thing, but this is a good point and it's interesting that blab made it because if ika was lying it's basically intercepting and ruining whatever WIFOM ika was going for, there. Whether this is interesting depends on whether ika was lying.

Smallest thing: Pushing ika over his use of coded language is possibly not something blab would do to a buddy? Basically, you already lost one buddy to a rule violation and modkill and now you're pointing out another rule violation from another buddy... It could be a form of distancing, I'm just not sure he would do it.

Sloth

I think Sloth is playing too much like he did in Dresden and ATLA to be scum. He's been actively scumhunting and engaging with this game since it started.

He's also been too obvious about defending scum, getting in fontisian's face about her pressure on ika for example. I have a lot of trouble imagining the mindset that would lead scum-Sloth to defend scum-ika from town-fontisian. Even I wouldn't dare to do that as scum, I seriously doubt he did. (Especially with 1 scum already down: I'd expect Sloth to distance a bit, not defend.)

His frustration with fontisian seems genuine:

Personally, I think Sloth deserves an Emmy if this is fake. My jaw will drop if this turns out to be fake.

I also don't agree with most of font's case against him. Just to name a few examples:

- She she calls some of his phrasing fake, but I don't agree with this being scummy. Sloth just has a slightly exaggerated posting style which rubbed me wrong at first but I got used to. He did the same stuff in his other games.

- She attacks him for his analysis of my opening post, but the attack is based on a misunderstanding which Sloth corrects her on later.

- She thinks he's lying about not knowing how many scum makes sense in a setup this size. This is Sloth's third game, or something? It doesn't surprise me that he wouldn't know this automatically.

- Says Sloth is coaching Zennith, but I think this is obviously false now.

- She counts the number of times ika mentions each player and uses it to support Sloth being scum, even though ika mentioned her more times than Sloth.

- She calls his "Do you know something we don’t?" line rolefishing. I'm not feeling it. Titus summed up my thoughts in #425 and the next few posts.

That said, fontisian & blab both strongly scum-reading Sloth makes me nervous.

--

Conclusion

It's hard for me to imagine any world where Titus, Riley and Maiden are scum. I'd also be slightly less surprised, but definitely still surprised, if Citrus and blab were scum. Zennith and Luckylee will likely be confirmed soon.

I want to put Sloth in the "has to be town" category, but the fact that fontisian strongly read believed he was scum and so does blab makes me second guess myself.

This leaves the following players, from most to least likely scum:

Custer
Moridin
Irdiumstern
Sloth

I would like for Lucky to shoot the top two tonight. One or both are scum. If he can only shoot one tonight, I'd choose Custer.

We should have 3-4 town-controlled kills left plus probably 1 for every scum we take down.

@blab: Talk to me about Sloth and Custer.

I realize there are questions I haven't gotten to yet, have been busy writing this up and it's nearly 2am here. Will get to them in the morning.

 

@Rubicon:
Your post just made me have an idea. If lucky shoots Moridin/Custer tonight, and townfirms himself, you guys can lynch me tomorrow, I can last will him my gold (3), and he can shoot another two (depending on how much his ability costs).
I don't trust him enough yet to last will him my gold tonight.

I'd also suggest shooting blab before sloth, but in general that looks good.

 

SO for the ten minutes I'm awake at this hour I thought I'd let you all know that even though Titus keeps repeatedly telling me the Last Will is a rapid action I asked Proph if it has to be set before death or not and he said it has to be set before death.

SO I ask you this, how many of you set a Last Will up already? MY ARGUMENT STILL STANDS TITUS! It's now completely possible that Fonti did not set a Last Will it being so early in the game. Maybe not a sure thing but definitely possible, especially if she wasn't expecting to be day-vigged. Eat crow.

 

15 hours left and I won't be around for a lot of them.

Vote Lynch: Ika

Vote Count 2.1
(8 to lynch)

ika (5): Luckylee, Titus, Citrus, Maiden, Moridin
Riley Poole (1): Titus

Abstain (Eight) Rubicon, Zennith, Sloth, blab, Irdiumstern, Custer, Riley Poole, ika

That's L-3. I'll be able to check in if necessary during the next 5 hours or so, probably not beyond that though.

---------- Post automerged at 05:47 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:31 PM ----------

Zeit and Ika make two scum (assuming, once again, that Ika dies today - if he doesn't Lucky should shoot him).

Assuming we go with Rubicon's version (and Lucky's said he can shoot two, so he better),

If Custer is town, I'd advocate pushing for Lucky's lynch. He's just taken out two town, which means his following the town will is irrelevant as far as townfirming himself goes, and he's suspicious enough to warrant the attention.

If Custer is scum, this post becomes important. Given that it names both Zeit and Ika, I'd say Zennith and Sloth get a pass. That leaves Irdiumstern and Blab. With 10 players remaining (current 14 -lynch -2 LuckyK -NK) assuming no other kills. Lynch Irdium, use his money for Lucky to take out Blab. If the game is still running, lynch Lucky.

Blab can be switched for Sloth, or both can be hit if enough people trust Lucky/more information renders him trustworthy and he gets the necessary donations.

If we assume that one of the three jailors is scum, though, (and in a post Custer-scum-flip world) I don't really see Custer putting all of his scummates into a team in #305, which is why I feel Sloth is unlikely to be mafia (aside from the fact I haven't found him scummy, ofc).

If Ika flips town, well, then that's a whole different situation. I can't see that happening - if it does, Zennith becomes an important target. Outside of that, I dunno, though I'll see what else I can honestly dredge up.

---------- Post automerged at 05:50 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:47 PM ----------

That in mind, try not to lynch until Custer can say stuff, please.

 

Rubicon, read this and tell me this is town. Town would have a last will set up in case they were killed at night.

Also one of your links in the post about me links to a towngame.

 

@Rubicon
re Custer:
You already asked me that earlier, and he hasn't posted since then. I now think he is more likely to be scum, simply because I'm more confident in the townreads of others and his case on Zennith looks worse in light of the jail situation and ika being basically conf!scum (Titus still believes in jester but I don't think proph would have used that role in the opening post then)

I still maintain Custer and Sloth as a weak unaligned pair because I don't think Custer would have put all both his scum-mates in his scumteam and then be that confident ("calling it"), basically forcing him to push against Sloth if ika gets lynched because of the jail situation.


re Sloth:
I've been trying to take a step back, I already scrapped my analysis on Sloth already twice. The first because I think I can attribute several scummy things to his character-traits/way-of-play and not his alignment and second because I wasn't unbiased (because I'd hate to be fooled by him more than any other since #580(fontisian's big "Lynch Sloth tomorrow") and me already having had a scumread on him)

Anyway, I felt the same way (getting more unsure) given my townreads have been townreading him (for no to me no apparent reason, in the beginning of Day2), and I'll get to a new analysis next. I still think very much think he is scum but I'm not as sure as for example you in #684.


@Sloth
sorry for semi-ignoring you, but whenever I've been trying to get a read on you I was working on my analysis. Nevertheless, answers:

regarding #178:
a) similar words, but really different meanings (and if you read your accusation, it's not an answer to anything either). In fact my sentence informs you of something, namely that what I thought Luckylee was doing (that might be scummy) is not what happened.
b+c) still don't agree. my deflection was actually an accusation and i still answered your questions.
d) irrelevant now

re #480: answered above in @Rubicon.

re #768:
straw-man
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man
I was accusing you of using this logical fallacy. Look at the structure part and replace X with "you are scum" and Y with "you are the dayvig"
.
I also don't understand the argument you are trying to make regarding my position on Lucky's daykill. Can you elaborate?

re: misc. I believe all other questions about terms I/the thread used have been answered. If not, please re-ask.


@all:
if it still isn't obvious, everyone should have set up a last will, now.

 

Immediately at start of night/end of day. The timing was a big factor in why I thought the time was ongoing.

 

Vote Count 2.1
(8 to lynch)

ika (5): Luckylee, Titus, Citrus, Maiden, Moridin
Riley Poole (1): Titus

Abstain (Eight) Rubicon, Zennith, Sloth, blab, Irdiumstern, Custer, Riley Poole, ika

Custer will be replaced.

Noted.

 

Prophylaxis, do you have a replacement lined up for Custer?

If we're planning on having Lucky kill him, then that shouldn't be happening. If we're not then we should be discussing alternate options.

---------- Post automerged at 10:09 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:07 PM ----------

To clarify, I meant that we should decide on what to do before Proph actually finds a replacement who dies their first night in (and him assuming Custer isn't dying tonight might tell us more than we should know about the gamestate).

 

Not sure if I will be around for end of day but i have my letter ready to be sent.

My scum buddies already have all the info they need though. So I sent it to a special someone

Have fun.

 

[vote]ika[/vote]

Day ends in 9 hours. I won't be here for the end. Someone hammer ika.

---------- Post automerged at 10:19 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:18 AM ----------

vote ika

/tenchar

 

Titus, you don't need to do the Alpha Baker thing?

 

Then it was a day-activated power. You wouldn't receive it as the start of night unless it was written during the day.

 

Derping

Double Vote: ika