@MathBlade: From the looks of it, I'm pretty sure that if you're not lynched, you're going to be shot. Personally, I feel like it's a better idea to lynch Moridin and shoot blab.

 

Me too because more town lives but....the town is convinced. Guess I need a new strategy for when I replace in next time.

---------- Post automerged at 21:03 ---------- Previous post was at 21:02 ----------

They could do lynch, shot and ran over by a Buick because I am Barney the anti-scum.

 

So...

Moridin: Mathblade + Blab

Lee: Blab

Citrus: Riley + Moridin, I think.

Titus: Riley + Irdium or Sloth.

Riley, unless I'm very much mistaken: Zennith, Titus, Citrus

Blab, Mathblade=town: Riley + Sloth
Blab, Mathblade=scum: Riley + Irdium

Mathblade: Moridin + Titus or Iridiumsterm. Skipping the rest cause there's way too many.

Am I right here? anyone I missed, add up.

@Citrus: It's too late to change it, unless I vote for moridin, but that'll just make it a NL. I'll vote for Mathblade because I do think she's scum, I just don't think this is the smartest strategy for Town.
Why did you vote for pseudoconfTown titus?

---------- Post automerged at 09:07 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:03 PM ----------

Ninja'd:
Maiden: Blab

 

Actually if Blab or Lucky Lee vote for Moridin you would get your lynch. Have they said they are not voting?

 

They're voting for you. They haven't yet to avoid a hammer.

 

Why would I want to vote against the conf!town and with my scumreads?

 

Just woke up so I'm not in a position to argue against my lynch. I will say I'd rather be lynched than shot (only if it's going to happen one way or another, mind) to maximise the chances of Lucky being given scum targets to shoot.

 

I'm confused, are you saying that Moridin is conftown?

 

Nope, Citrus, Titus, Zennith are.
Why would I want to overrule them and vote with the ones where my scumreads are

 

I'd also rather Mathblade was shot, but oh well. /shrug

If we lynch Mathblade, Lucky should shoot Blab+Irdiumstern.

Sloth, you should have included your own preference in that summation, just for clarity's sake.

 

You sure? Then why not have them do it now? You would see I was town and have the game change, but no. Mafia wants a town kill right before night so they can get the equivalent of three kills.

The 2 mafia won't go after the trinity. That leaves 3 people out in the open. One is definitely not mafia is down from that and the other may have to hold a kill or waste it on a jailed player.

 

@Moridin: Lucky is only going to shoot once tonight.

 

What do you mean by 'three kills', Mathblade?

 

I'm thinking she means they get a town lynch, a town shot, and their own kill.

 

Maiden, why?

I don't trust Lucky, tbf. I'd really rather not have him go into endgame with even one more kill (or other ability) remaining.

 

Let's say for all intents and purposes I'm dead. I'm town so that is one kill Mafia.

There are probably two mafia outstanding therefore there are two more kills they can do, or maybe just one.

Lucky shoots someone. Worst case scenario a townie. Best case scenario mafia. The odds of shooting a townie are 8/10. (I'm out of the the equation here.) Or a 80% chance.

Mafia kills 1-2 known townies.

This means a loss of up to four but probably two-three townies this round.

Therefore by killing a townie such as myself, you're looking at the potential of having 2 mafia and 7 town when this is done. Best case scenario 2-8.

 

Why what? And it's not our choice. He's saying that he doesn't want to risk shooting 2 townies.

 

@Maiden: Yep

 

Ah.

In that case, Mathblade just shot up the scumdar big time. She's been pushing HARD for my lynch, and we're currently tied. It's an easy assumption that if she's lynched I'd be shot, which would mean at least one scum would die tonight from her POV. Even if I'm not the obvious shot, that's still another avenue to argue rather than just blatant fearmongering.

---------- Post automerged at 07:53 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:52 AM ----------

Mathblade: Mafia generally have one shared kill, not one kill per member (N1 would have been quite different otherwise).

 

I just don't think they're going to get any scum and I am arguing probability not fearmongering. I'm a mathematician by trade. You should see my papers on graph theory and Ramsey numbers some time. Based on what I have calculated a lot of town is going to die tonight. *sigh*

---------- Post automerged at 21:24 ---------- Previous post was at 21:24 ----------

@Moridin: Damn funky rules Now my argument makes no sense.