I really do think that it's best that we lynch Moridin. I'm currently working on a wall for blab (as promised forever ago), so I'm reading over old stuff. On pg. 5, Nemrut had three posts. Hardly any of it was about the game at all. It was all about mechanics. With that + Nemrut/Moridin's lurking, I think Moridin is the better choice. Going to keep digging for stuff on blab. Will let you guys know if anything jumps out at me.

 

Do you trust Lucky? I just feel it's quite easy for him to argue this and so hold on to a kill. It's also easier for him to shoot one townie and explain it away than shooting two. Given the relatively wide suspect pool, it's far easier for him to get away with not hitting his own teammates.

It's not our choice who he shoots. It is our choice to believe or lynch him.

Mathblade: Probability should take into account likelihood of getting shot. If Lucky shoots Titus or Citrus, he's getting lynched. I don't think that's happening. If he picks from the significantly smaller pool of non-conftown in a reasonable order of preference, the chance of hitting scum is way higher. Killing two people tonight would also raise that chance, and a 1v1 tradeoff is generally acceptable at this stage, another reason to push for TWO deaths tonight.

---------- Post automerged at 07:58 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:57 AM ----------

Two deaths = Two Lucky kills, since scum may not do the reasonable thing and shoot themselves.

 

@Maiden: Thanks

So yeah, if we are really going to do Lucky's shots by plurality (which is stupid, and I still don't know what exactly I've done that is scummy) then I'd like to suggest that we just agree to lynch me tomorrow instead, because I bought the bulletproof thing with the extra gold I got.
I was trying to bait scum into wasting a kill on me, but whatever.

How exactly did you calculate that a lot of town is going to die tonight

/math student

 

Half an hour to deadline, is that correct? Maiden, make it fast.

---------- Post automerged at 08:03 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:01 AM ----------

Blab: That's a fairly town assumption to make. Hmm. I don't like Sloth for the kill either. Dammit.

 

We have less than a half hour until deadline.

Change Iridium for Maiden (shoot Maiden) in my second shoot slot for defending obvscum.

 

assumption = admission sorry

 

I just got home. I expected to be home two hours ago. Work.

 

I basically have a nullread on Lucky until he shoots. If he shoots a town, then I'll still be wary. (Then again, can we blame him too much? WE'RE the ones telling him who to shoot, though everyone's all over the place as to who to shoot.)
He's put himself in a really good position. If he's town, he's being a team player, and no one would want to lynch a team player.
If he's scum, then he can pick who to shoot between whom everyone's fighting over. So say, we're fighting between shooting you or blab and blab is scum. He could choose to shoot you, and say that he had to choose. Sort of like, "Whoops, sorry guys. There wasn't a definitive answer on who to shoot, so I just sort of picked one."
For now, nullread, but I'm definitely wary.

---------- Post automerged at 09:35 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:34 PM ----------

By that logic, if MathBlade flips town, Lucky should shoot you.

 

EXACTLY. So many of these problems go away if we have him shoot two. It ups the chance of him hitting scum significantly. If he shoots only one tonight and it turns out to be town, you get basically nothing useful regarding his alignment. If he shoots two and both are town, that's less likely to be pure chance.

 

Let's assume you're lynching me because let's face it the town is derping.

1) Lucky shoots someone...Too many arguments to pick a person but we know he won't shoot the Holy Trinity or himself. With 10 people left and 4 not confirmed victims, this leaves 6 people.

-----------------Assuming confTown is town this means that 2/6 or 33% chance to hit scum. More than likely he will hit town.

-----------------Assuming 1 confTown is NOT town then a 15% chance to hit scum.

Therefore it can be assumed that Lucky will hit town, as town logic cannot be relied upon as they killed me.

Then mafia won't kill mafia. So three town kills.

This leaves 2 mafia and 8 town.

Now, let's make things even worse. Let's assume for a second that Lucky shoots two people. (I know he said he wouldn't just giving worse case scenario)

This makes the odds 2/6 --Then he doesn't kill a mafia ... 2/5 still likely he kills two townies as that is less than half.

Mafia kills a townie.

That could leave with 2 & 7.

---------------------------

The uber advanced graph theory way is waaaaaaaaay too advanced to type out but let's just say it ain't roses either.

 

If it helps, I agree with you. But we can't force him.

 

@Maiden, No. That's a logical fallacy.

Being wrong about someone who by all appearance is scum =/= defending obvscum.

 

@Titus: Except I'm not obvscum...Maybe you are scum though...I still suspect you.

 

...oh yeah, that's who I forgot. -__-

TALLY

Moridin: Blab + Irdium

Lee: Blab

Citrus: Riley + Moridin, I think

Titus: Riley + Maiden/Sloth

Riley, unless I'm very much mistaken: Zennith + Titus + Citrus

Blab, Mathblade=town: Riley + Sloth
Blab, Mathblade=scum: Riley + Irdium

Mathblade: Moridin + Titus/Iridium (keeping her in case of a Town flip)

Maiden: Blab

Sloth, Mathblade=town: Blab + Moridin
Sloth, Mathblade=scum: Blab + Riley

--

If Mathblade is Town...

Blab = 4
Riley = 3
Moridin = 3
Sloth = 2
Irdium = 2
Titus = 2
Zennith = 1
Citrus = 1
Maiden = 1

--

If Mathblade is Scum...

Blab = 4
Riley = 4
Irdium = 2
Moridin = 1
Sloth = 1
Titus = 1
Zennith = 1
Citrus = 1
Maiden = 1

 

*facepalm* It's a matter of opinion. I think that MathBlade is derp!town (even that's stretching it since she joined with over 50 pages to read. Of course she'd be confused). I also think that it is way too soon to lynch her and we should give it another day.

 

Maiden, what was your read on Custer.

 

yeah ok, but it's still fairly irrelevant, given that even if he hits two town, he helps us by cutting down the not-confirmed-town-block.
(and the whole thing is assuming you're town)

 

It's okay...I've accepted the fact I will be lynched and/or shot but someone has got to take out that Holy Trinity. It reads at least one scummy player in it. If scum has someone in the Holy Trinity we are all done for.

 

If it doesn't, then why should I be shot for defending her?

 

@Blab: I most certainly am...But losing 3-4 town and one of the scum is in the Holy trinity is a bit too much to take for Town IMO.