Citrus: If you're looking for me to panic, then I'm not going to. I have a lot of stuff going on right now. That said, I'm definitely not pleased about the vote, since with a 4 scum team it loses us the game. Not to mention, do you seriously think everything I've done compares to the number of scumtells Riley's had in the past two days alone? I mean, here he is again 'setting aside' his vendetta against you in favour of a more reasonable lynch target.

 

Only because you're now striking me as a decent scum read.

Moridin, those scum tells. Give them to me please. Argue your innocence. Don't rely on others. I went a pulled together a huge fucking wall to present a case. Not doing the same is kinda scummy honestly.

---------- Post automerged at 04:00 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:00 PM ----------

went and pulled*

 

I will in a while (it's fairly late right now) but that's my point. Time and again you've stated that you've already made your case on Citrus, a case that you've referred to as based on meta. Then you give us this, something far more comprehensive than anything you've stated before. It's pretty obviously pulled together as a response to my pushing you yesterday.

 

And it didn't change a damn thing in your mind. That's why I try not to do them. The problem I'm having reconciling is that the only people that should be confident in any form whether that's bravado or true confidence is Scum.

I'm nor saying that a Town would be panicking but you'd at least put up a better defense than what you're doing now. It's late, whoop-de-doo. My read walls been up for the better part of the day and you barely responded, that's not an excuse so take it and shove it up your ass and come back with an actual case.

 

Unvote

I'll try to make my current setup thoughts more succinct in one post, because that's almost the only thing I feel reasonably confident on right now

Axioms:
1) Titus had a double vote and confirmed ability to avoid being jailed (aka commute pretty much)
2) Riley has claimed a TPR role
3) Blab and Moridin have both claimed Town Vanilla
4) Riley has claimed role blocked feedback AND reduction to Vanilla feedback on separate nights
5) OP said each player can only conduct one night action per night unless specifically stated otherwise, excluding last will
6) Scum have used a dayvig ability
7) Town is confirmed to have 3 vanillas via graveyard and 6 TPRs via graveyard
8 ) Scum is confirmed to have 1 SPR via graveyard
9) No sheriff role has been claimed or exists (I would guess it would have been mentioned by Maiden over rolecop, unless role cop reveals night ability AND alignment)

Logic:
2,4,5 -> Town!Riley means a 4 man scum team to allow a night kill AND night action targeting Riley.
1,6,7 -> 4 man scum team from the game's onset seems very unbalanced considering Titus's abilities

Thus:

Potential scum teams:
Zeit+Ika+

1) Titus
2) Blab + Moridin
3) Riley
4) Blab + Riley
5) Moridin + Riley
6) Blab
7) Moridin

1 won't be addressed today whether it's likely or not.
3 in and of itself will most likely be addressed based on the lynch flip today

Which leaves 2,4,5,6,7

Lynching Blab/Moridin resolves 2, 6/7, and 4/5, so what today really comes down to is between lynching Blab and Moridin, assuming Riley is not part of a 4man scum team with the other member.

 

I will look at cases later.

Since we may be in lylo, everyone should put forth their unlynchable and best lynch target. Right now, if I had to pick an unlynchable, I would say Blab (weak). My lynch target now would be Riley.

This is ignoring all evidence brought forth today but for Vanillaizer.

The above should generate alignment tells.

 

First, I'm sorry for not posting much but I had an exam this morning and, well, the traditional after-exam-stuff after that. Expect more (and sober) posts tomorrow.
My thoughts for today:

The roleblock and then later vanilla-ized claim is suspicious but nonsensical.
Why would scum!Riley fakeclaim that in favor of just claiming rb'd again?

The rolecop item would have revealed both...

x) Why again can't the same person nightkill and vanilla-ize/roleblock?
Assuming that is true:


Riley=town:
either a) => 4 man-scumteam => Titus=town => Citrus+Moridin
or b) => 3-man-scumteam + 3rd-party-roleblocker+vanilla-izer(JOAT?)=> single person left.
Riley=scum => (Roleblocker and vanilla-izer probably a lie) => Titus is not scum:
c) => Zeit/ika/Riley
d) => Zeit/ika/Riley/Moridin or (less likely) Zeit/ika/Riley/Citrus

which mirrors your own possibilities if you switch my name with yours.

Based on that, your plan looks like what I would do if x) is true and I thought a) is much, much more likely than d), given that c) is more reasonable than b). (again flip my name with yours).

I don't see what exactly speaks against a 4-man team with Riley (which is pretty much Riley/Moridin (actually the most likely 2-man scumteam, fmPOV), given solo-Titus and unaligned (Citrus+Riley)).

 

"Please note that you may only use one active ability per day/night cycle unless an ability says otherwise."

In example role card, which is also located in my role card.

Or do you think that may not apply to mafia?

---------- Post automerged at 06:12 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:11 PM ----------

Addressing Blab's point X)

 

Back. Sketching out my thoughts.

---------- Post automerged at 07:16 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:37 PM ----------

3 scum game

Moridin cannot be the third scum in a three scum game. Sloth stated (and presumably wasn't gambiting) that Moridin visit anyone night 2. Sloth should have gotten a "visited Rubicon" if that was the case.

I can't be scum in a 3 person setup because I escorted to jail and thus not blocked.


That leaves Citrus, Riley or Blab as possible scum in a three person setup.

Blab is unlikely, but possible scum in a three person setup. Given the option between ika and Blab, I can't see why scum wouldn't send Blab. Blab would have to be the daykilling scum (and thus not trackable by Sloth). ika would have to have done the NK night 1.

In a three scum setup, Citrus or Riley are likely the scum. #476 makes sense here.

4 scum setup

This slot is the only way Riley is town. Based on mechanics alone, no one is eliminated purely. I'm pretty damn close but not completely.

I can see Citrus Riley being partners. Attack each other. Sacrifice one. The other is conf-live in the endgame. But let's stick to mechanics and set paranoia aside for more.

If there are four scum, then it makes more sense for Riley to be town. I'm not a big fan of town having 2 investigatives in a setup like this. Scum having two investigatives to sort out PRs doesn't make as much sense either.

Sloth's investigations would be worthless unless he tracked someone to a kill. That's much harder in a four scum game. His ability would be more useful after a massclaim.

Blab looks townie but I can't see anyone who is obviously unaligned with Blab. We've been frequently mislynching. Paranoia increase.

Riley town or Riley scum

Riley town means 4 scum. It also means we are missing one gold from Fonti. I don't mind this theory as Possum giving gold to Fonti, a highly probable town makes sense.

I'm not scum. He's not scum. So that means 2 out of Citrus/Blab/Moridin.

Assuming 4 scum and Riley scum

The audit claim was shit and meant to divert attention.

RIley/Citrus === Paranoia, never driving a lynch until it will not likely happen. Unlikely because Citrus opened strong on Riley yesterday.]

Riley/Blab === Will need to look more into this.

Riley/Moridin === Riley (scum auditor possible or no auditor)... Riley does the kill N2 rather than Moridin.

First blush possibilities.

---------- Post automerged at 07:26 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:16 PM ----------

Forgot a part

4 scum and Riley Town, Teams

Citrus/Moridin === My favorite. Neither player was on ika. Yet 1701 is set up to look like Citrus and Moridin cannot be buddies.

Citrus/Blab === This would explain why we can't lynch scum.

Blab/Moridin === Needs investigation. Nothing stands out about their interactions.

---------- Post automerged at 08:09 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:26 PM ----------

**thus not blocked == thus not possible to do the kill and blocked

 

Well, In a normal game, a scum PR would be able to both nightkill and use that PR, so yes, I didn't think it applied. Also, we know that Payback is not an active ability (i would have been able to simultaneously rolecop and payback, had I gotten the item), so I don't see why the nightkill would need to be one.


Also, why the hell does your role-card say that? You claimed VT.

what do you think about role-block and vanilla-ize in "Riley is town" scenarios?
In 3 scum, do we have a third party or do they come from scum?
Why does Riley=town mean 4 scum when you have a 3 scum scenarios with Riley town right above that?

 

Because I could theoretically be given money and use it to buy multiple items from the Merchant, from a mod perspective? That's why I was thinking it's a general rule for the game and everyone received that message in their role card, because it seemed kinda stupid that it's in mine.

Also I don't think it's scum + third party because whoever role blocked Riley didn't role block him last night. Which is odd if you think there's a third party since it requires coordination

 

Third party is unlikely. In a four scum, third party, town is waay underpowered. In a three scum situation, ehere is the third party? There are a gajillion third party roles Prophy knows but they'd all likely be considered bastard here. An SK is nearly impossible...what have they done?

Given that Blab likely needs a partner and Moridin would likely need one... I propose the following course of action....

1) Investigate Blab/Moridin possibility. I think it's wrong but it would be fatal to my next steps.

2) Rule out Blab scum by himself.

3) Citrus and Riley crossvote, as at least one of them must be scum at this point.

4) Blab , Moridin indicate preferences and make cases.

5) We vote.

---------- Post automerged at 07:08 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:07 AM ----------

4 I also indicate preference in step 4.

---------- Post automerged at 08:03 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:08 AM ----------

Just did a quick skim midway through Day 1 and 2. Blab's would be big bus of ika doesn't make sense if he'd be alone for the rest of the game. So I am going a tad bit out of order and being confident of Blab not being last scum.

Skipping to Blab/Moridin interactions.

 

So could I, and it's not in mine. My card is formatted pretty much exactly like the sample vanilla PM...



@Titus:
regarding 4)
So nightkills can be roleblocked, which eliminates solo-Titus, which townfirms Titus in my eyes, given that 4-scum Titus is dumb.
Solo-Moridin is impossible because of Tracker-result.

That leaves:

1) Moridin+Riley
2) Riley
3) Moridin+Citrus
4) Citrus+Riley
5) Citrus

a) lynching Moridin looses us the game in Citrus+Riley
b) lynching Riley looses us the game in Moridin+Citrus

so: a) is unlikelier (unaligned pair) than b) so I still prefer Moridin.

Moridin>Riley>Citrus preference.

 

Blab, can you show me significant Moridin interaction?

Moridin, I would like your preferences as well.

 

What's significant, in your opinion?
I didn't talk much with Moridin, if I remember correctly.

I did have an exchange Day 1 with Nemrut where he exhibited some of the same thoughts I had (though less constructive, in my (not very humble) opinion) which made me we possibly came from the same place (both VT).

Day 2+3+4, not much, ika, Sloth, Riley, LuckyLee and Mathblade always took priority with their stuff. I remember Rubicon taking my words out of my mouth for a bunch of reads, though (including Moridin).

I did mention him as my top scumread yesterDay and would have pushed that if not for exam-preperation.

I also remember him scumreading me for a weakish reason midDay 2 and then voting to get me NK'd both times.

Anything I don't remember is probably in-significant.

 

No. This is what I wanted.

I can't see scum thinking Lucky is a fraud. If Riley's town and you were the scumteam, vanillaizing Lucky woyld be a safer play since Moridin is higher on the lists.

Why Riley over Citrus?

---------- Post automerged at 10:09 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:41 AM ----------

I will be back later. I am essentially waiting on Citrus, Riley and Moridin to respond to my points.

 

No, I don't like your plan at all. If Riley's town then Moridin + Blab is the scumteam, and your plan puts us in autoloss. It seems a lot safer to lynch outside Riley today

 

Make a behavioral case on them please.

Your post also talks as if I am contown. Do you agree with Blab's reasoning as to why I cannot be scum?

Moridin is a not a proper lynch today. Moridin has to have a partner if scum. If it's you or Riley, lynching between the two of you is ideal. If you or Riley has Blab as a partner, then lynching you or Riley is better. So the only way we should lynch outside of you and Riley is either...

Blab is solo scum OR Blab/Moridin.

Convince me.

 

Did you not read my posts? You're as good as conftown today in terms of who we lynch.

What happened Night 2? Rubicon died, Moridin visited noone, Riley was role blocked. Correct?

---------- Post automerged at 01:35 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:34 PM ----------

And if Blab/Riley is a team, we can still lynch outside Riley by lynching Blab.
Same story for Moridin. You're assuming Riley is town when he can be scum with Moridin or Blab

 

I am strongly leaning 3 scum btw bc of the nk.

---------- Post automerged at 11:44 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:37 AM ----------

Citrus. I did read. Saying I am unlynachable is not saying I am conftown.

Blab Riley can be a team. However, lynching Blab requies a hypothesis assumption of 4 scum as Blab would be more likely to do an N1 kill than ika. Riley could be scum by himself and there's reasons to think both of you are scum alone.

If the game is three cum, lnching between Citrus and Riley forces a Moridin death if a mislynchhappens. Scum couldn't leave me and Moridin alive as we are both alibied. I commute. Moridin has to die.

Endgame is Citrus OR Riley v Blab, with Titus deciding.

If it's four scum, and we eliminate Blab/Moridin team, then we know at least one of Citrus OR Riley must be scum....

I need Moridin to come on before I finish that thought.

---------- Post automerged at 12:06 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:44 AM ----------

God damn it...there's a flaw in my plan. The only likely 3 scum is Riley.

If Citrus is scum alone, then there is no method of making Riley's statements true. So we have

Riley
Blab + Citrus
Blab + Moridin
Blab + Riley
Citrus + Moridin
Citrus + Riley

---------- Post automerged at 12:07 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:06 PM ----------

Eliminating Blab Moridin is still the best play, but which to lynch out of Citrus/Riley gets more complicated.

---------- Post automerged at 12:11 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:07 PM ----------

Supposing we can say Riley town = Moridin town bc Moridin cannot move to be the blocker. I would be town as well.

Citrus Blab must be the team if Riley is town.

---------- Post automerged at 12:20 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:11 PM ----------

Riley
Blab + Citrus
Blab + Riley
Citrus + Riley
Moridin + Riley

These are the possible teams here, assuming Riley is not derp town fakeclaiming. If he is, we know why we lost

---------- Post automerged at 12:21 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:20 PM ----------

VCA here I come!