im about 99% convinced rubi/cirtus team or at least one of them is scum now

my votes are on those 2 only now.

 

...Possibly good assumption for you to make.

I'll go through your posts about Snowvon again in the morning and see if I missed something.

Yeah I'll look at him too.

---------- Post automerged at 12:26 AM ---------- Previous post was at 12:25 AM ----------

Citrus: Why are you evading questions this game? It's not because you're Seer, so I don't get it.

 

Are you factoring in LochNess into Titus at all?

Do you honestly believe Ika and Titus are scum together, considering their exchanges? Not that they couldn't be faked, but I don't think that'd be the first thing they'd decide to do were they both scum. I feel like they wouldn't be able to keep up forced dialogue until one of them gets lynched

---------- Post automerged at 02:28 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:26 AM ----------

The only question(s) I'm purposefully evading is my thoughts concerning Ika. These will wait til tomorrow.

If I missed any other questions point them out again and I'll gladly respond.

If you think I'm scum, vote me. It's not that hard.

 

Citrus: We were asking about why you were intentionally being quiet, or whatever.

Yeah. Actually taking a closer look at the LochNess/TerRaine thing you suggested.

Probably not, but I still think it would be interesting to see how they interact with each other. I've skimmed Avatar but that's about it.

 

dont even compare avatar to this shit, in there we were all techincal prs and were able to confirm via past refrenceing games. here we got jack shit

 

I wasn't planning on it, but I didn't expect such a horrible turnout for daystart

 

Horrible turnout?

 

I have a gut threshold of activity I'm looking for and it hasn't been hit yet

---------- Post automerged at 02:53 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:49 AM ----------

Fast read from reroll through Titus replacing in:

1) Lyrium voted Rubicon (268)

2) Citrus town read Lyrium (387)

3) Scumview of Snowvon? (462)

4) Ika town read Lyrium (487)

5) Dermon town read Lyrium (515)

6) Snowvon scum read Lyrium? (522)

*) Lyrium soft claiming Seer? Snowvon quoted it, everyone else ignored it (532)

?) Sloth town read Lyrium (???)

7) Maiden slight scum read Lyrium (557)

8) Sloth hard town reads Lyrium (560)

9) TerRaine null Lyrium? (562)


-------------

Lyrium townread Snowvon (633)

Lyrium semi-fakes believing Ika seer claim? (~637)

->

Rubicon, do you think this adds to Snowvon's town cred?

Lyrium and Sloth were probably the most all-around town-reads for yesterday.


{Citrus, Ika, Dermon, Sloth} gave pretty strong town reads for Lyrium yesterday. Any other players do so that I missed?

I'm curious if there's a block of players that town read 1 player that possibly scared scum into the night kill (assuming it wasn't a PR hunting kill)

---------- Post automerged at 02:53 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:53 AM ----------

I see you checking in on here Sloth, just wanted to say hope your dog's ok

 

Bleh. I’ve been reading on-and-off for the past few hours. She won’t let me sleep much.
Here’s what I have for now.

--
@Citrus

I have some thoughts on that below.

Btw, this might not be a scumtell, but it bothers me from someone that said ‘we shouldn’t be asking for modkills’: Maiden clearly stated in her Little Big Post that she had exams and she’d try to be here for the end. Calling her play horrible over that annoys me.
Additionally, it’s possible you were trying to further paint her as scum so that you’d have an excuse for voting her once she flipped.

Ter’s a WOMAN (not relevant to the game, but still needs to be said.)

--
@ika

This is why you were “99%” sure she’s Town? She didn’t know she’d be replacing (much less that she could be replacing as scum, a 2 in 13 chance), plus she had very real RL emergencies to deal with. It doesn’t affect at all what her alignment was. How does it prove anything?

Attract the NK how? Loudly proclaim you’re the Seer at every opportunity and expect to be believed? What else did you do?
Also is that seriously your only reason to think Citrus was Seer after he told us all he was last round?

…How in the hell is that not a good reason to tunnel someone?

Also, you’re alternating between your ‘tantrum screams’ and your ‘calm arguments’ a lot more often now, which indicates control, which indicates scummy intent.

Ok, aside from the weird as hell point of you insisting to look at the logic of your actions when you keep claiming you do emotion play, I actually do have some thoughts on that.

--
@Atum

This is actually an excellent point that wasn’t addressed. It wasn’t the newness, because you didn’t say the same of TerRaine or Lochness. Or even Maiden, Mathblade and Burkion who are only slightly less new. Atum, response?

--
@Titus
With Lyrium dead, I guess it doesn’t matter, but I am either not understanding your plan, or not liking it at all, since I think it was suggesting we risk the Seer over what basically amounts to luck.

Given that Citrus’ argument relies completely on the Seer being dead and flipping as such (meaning there would be zero doubt on any solo wagon/defense), how is it that your counter for it relies on the implication we don’t know the role for sure?
You’re countering his point with a response completely unrelated to it. You’re way too anal-retentive to have missed that detail. Explain.
Also, didn’t you reply to me saying you assumed Seer was conf!Seer?

It’s been brought up numerous times how the Scum could benefit from your plan the most by several players, me included.
Please catch up soon, I need your opinion on ika’s play. If you recall, he raged in B&T towards the end.

--
@Dermon

You never replied to this.
While you’re at it, do you have any more solid reads on your nulls?

…why are you specifically only asking Rubicon this?

--
@Mathblade

I seriously never know what to do with you, my initial impulse to any of your posts is ‘is she serious?’

-First on the Seer, Titus’ plan was to announce results, not intended targets. Even if Seer did do that and the Scum didn’t kill them, I’m not sure why we as Town wouldn’t at least go along with it, since we can afford a fair number of MLs. One Death to confirm a Seer is not much.
It also relies on the idea that scum wouldn’t kill someone legitimately thought to be the seer ASAP, when of course they would, why wouldn’t they? Even if the target they announced was Town, you’d still hit the Seer first thing.

-Second, she was…very clearly saying that “ika or any other seer” thing as “ika or whoever the seer actually is.” I mean, I don’t think it’s a stretch to call that the obvious implication.

-Ika/Titus team is ridiculously unlikely for reasons I’ll go into later.

This reads to me as you knowing the plan is a bad plan but not knowing why.

--
@Snowvon
Deliver on your promise. You have until tomorrow.

--
@Terraine
Yeah, that ‘well, fuck’ is off. I get that you’re new, however, do you have anything substantial to add, and any reads to give in adjustment to the recent developments?
You had Maiden as Lean Scum, and Lyrium as Null. How are things changed in your eyes with the new information?

===================

Ok, time for some analysis…

Maiden got lynched and flipped Town. Shocking.

Looking at her last big wall before then, she had {Mathblade, Lean!Lyrium, Snowvon, Lean!Atum} as scum.
-Mathblade arguments aren’t the strongest, but they do have some merit, especially coupled with what I’ve been saying on her.
-Lyrium is irrelevant, conf!town.
-Snowvon, I’ve gone over a thousand times. She pointed out a LOT of the things I’ve been saying. I also like that slip she mentioned for his #373: “Interesting, here, as I don't recall ika mentioning that he felt that Snowvon is scum before this point. Guilty slip?” – Waiting on Snow’s promised change in D2 to pursuefurther.
-I’ve been feeling out Atum lately, and I guess she has somewhat of a point here, though it’s not very strong. Then again, it is a lean read.

Also, her lynch train: “Maiden (7) – ika, Snowvon, MathBlade, Citrus, Lyrium, TerRaine, Sloth.”
As mentioned before by several players, there’s probably scum here. (Rubicon should also be here, but he unvoted to avoid a hammer.)

For now, that’s all we get from Maiden’s death, and since it wasn’t an NK, we don’t really know if she was anywhere close. However, it’s worth keeping in mind.

--

Now, for the NK – Lyrium, who was the Seer. There are 3 reasons: Her reads were good, her status as nigh-conf!town, and her status as Seer.

Her reads:
Scum reads (as best as I can tell)
As of #324 – snowvon
As of #483 – Snowvon?, Dermon, Maiden (<vote)

Town reads (same as above)
As of #324 – citrus, rubicon.
As of #483 – Rubicon, Mathblade.

Which are…vague and give nothing. I mean, she did her usual ‘oh how dare you, scum’ and ‘are you scum?’ bit, but it’s just how she plays the game. Maybe she was on to something there, but no particular reason to believe it – I don’t think she was lynched over her reads. She was far from the only person pressing Snow (and she was doing it very weakly in comparison), and she never really pressed Dermon. Maiden was, of course, Town.

Nigh-conf!Town is definitely at least part of the reason. Despite her questionable play, I think most players had her solidly as Town, and I gave my own extended case on why that was. I’m pretty sure Scum wouldn’t’ want a player that no one would lynch making it too far, so this is a reason to do so. Maybe the only reason.

Reading her posts, I have no idea how scum could have figured out she was seer, either: She gave little to no answers on everything, and asked a lot of questions. There’s nothing pointing towards her being the PR.
Then again, I don’t really know PR hunting, so maybe one of the more skilled players in that area saw something I didn’t. It’s possible, but I’m going to be approaching the analysis with her Town status as the main reason and only bring up the Seer if I see a way it could have been done (and I do).

--
Ika as scum
First of all, if ika’s scum, Titus and Burkion almost certainly aren’t. None of the other newbies are either, probably.

It’s simple: What was with the Seer claim? As soon as Tomorrow came, there’d be at least questions on his results (might be why he pushed Titus’ plan?).
Basically, if ika is scum, he made that claim with the intent to be lynched D2 (and probably the hope he’d be able to talk us out of it). He would only do that if he felt his partner was reliable enough to handle the game on their own once he was gone, and having them be somewhat townfirmed by his lynch, probably.
That rules out Burkion and Titus: Burkion was MIA most of the Day, and Titus only replaced Ness later on (something ika would have no way of knowing). It probably rules out the newbies because they’re new, why would ika trust them to win the game?

Why would ika do this this early in the game? Honestly, I could see him doing it as a wild gambit like he always says. He could have just bet everything on going out taking the Seer. Even hoped that he could hide in audacity and claim he was Town trying to protect them. Sounds like ika, tbh.

However, ika would have only hit Lyrium if he knew she was Seer. Unless we can be relatively certain of this, he’s not scum.
It all depends on whether he managed to catch her. Ika did say he was Seer-hunting, and it’s possibly he made his claim expecting to see the real Seer react. Lyrium did somehow, he caught it, and he struck.
Which leads us to the worst thing ika has done in my eyes: He claimed he thought Citrus was seer…and frankly I don’t believe that because he was asked for arguments about it and they were really weak. I think he may actually have thought Lyrium was seer.

If he didn’t know who the Seer was, he’d have hit any random target for no conceivable reason to throw us off, like he did Possum in B&T, unless his partner talked him out of it.

Speaking of partners…

Mathblade + ika is very unlikely now that the NK has occurred, given the bit about the newbies.

Snowvon + ika, I wanna say is unlikely, except I keep hearing people like Rubicon and Lyrium say he’s a skilled scum player in IRC, so maybe ika trusted him enough? Rubicon, thoughts?

Citrus + ika and Rubicon + ika are equally as possible in a scum!ika world, and I’d have to do an in-depth analysis of their interactions to see if either is more likely. Someone poke me to do that after some sleep. Along with a case on Citrus, I said to pay closer attention to him.

So, given all of that, yeah – Ika’s more likely than not scum.

@EVERYONE: Assuming an ika lynch today, who is Townfirmed the most in your eyes?

--
Oh, and a bit on Burkion…
I’ve gotten in contact with him and forwarded the info to Riley. He’ll decide what to do from there. Just wanted to let you know it IS being taken care of.

--
Vote: Ika

THIS IS L-2, no one else vote. Ika will hammer regardless of alignment.

Titus, ika: Feel free to counter any of this.

(Tick tock, Snow. I haven’t forgotten about you.)

---------- Post automerged at 07:07 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:04 AM ----------

She's ok. =)
Just really needy and bratty. A little withdrawn and difficult with eating.
Won't let me sleeeeeeeeppppp. And she took all my covers too, the bitch.

---------- Post automerged at 07:08 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:07 AM ----------

It's just a broken foot. Given her wails yesterday, you could have sworn she had been shot. /pets her.

Thanks for asking.

 

@Sloth

That was my response to Lyrium's question of who I hoped wasn't seer right? I picked Dermon because I didn't like his play during the first roll and his contributions earlier in D1 also didn't strike me as particularly strong or independent I guess would be the best word. I hadn't realized at that point that he had experience here, either because I missed a post where he answers the question that went around about experience or because it wasn't answered. As for why it wasn't one of the other new people, Dermon was new and he was also more active than Loch or TeRaine, and I think even Mathblade and Maiden at that point. Burkion was just gone for RL, but I thought he'd be back by now and didn't see much content to judge him by.

Basically I thought an experienced seer would be able to lead a bandwagon against scum tells, hopefully without claiming, but if not, then at least they'd be able to defend their claim. For Dermon I wasn't sure that would play out so well and him posting seemed to present more chances of being discovered if he was the seer.

I think at this point you're the most townfirmed. Regular activity, analysis and questioning everyone would be my reasoning for that. Still I don't see anybody as really confirmed at this point, the ML and seer NK really caught me off-guard.

Who's most townfirmed to you Sloth?

 

Vote Count

ika (4) - MathBlade, Rubicon, Atum, Sloth
Rubicon (1) - Titus
Citrus (1) - ika

Not Voted: Burkion, Dermon, Citrus, TerRaine, SnowVon

Day 2 ends at this time


MOD NOTE: Burkion is being handled for right now.

MOD NOTE 2.0: I'll like be gone a significant portion of today and tonight due to Birthday things being done. I'll try to check in. I've requested those with Obs to try to help out since it's such a simple game.

 

Sloth, no one is townfirmed with an ika flip. This could be scum sitting back and letting town drive up a wagon on town. There has been no rational discussion.

Second, this kind of gambit is something ika does all the time. It is why ika and I have an anonymous hydra offsite. It works well because ika can do the gambits and I clarify them. If town ika had discovered the Lyrium was the seer, then that's his expected play. He is not engaging in that plan to be lynched, but to bite the nightkill, giving the real seer an investigation.

Third, I will admit the number of fbombs ika is using is off, but he's doing that across multiple sites.

Fourth, the idea was to have everyone post results. Let me do an example.

Ika says he checked Titus
Titus checks Sloth
Sloth checks Titus
Rubicon checks Atum
Atum checks Rubicon

Now, let's suppose scum kill Rubicon and he flipped seer in hypo. Atum would be conftown. Also by everyone posting, the real seer is harder to find.

---------- Post automerged at 07:58 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:57 AM ----------

The above example is a hypo five player game.

 

How about this: i am more emotional based then logic based. I have plans of my own as well, is it logical for a villager to do it? yes

if it logical for a wolf to do it? hell no

thats what im fucking saying. If you expect to understand me then you will actualy try to figure it out.

fucking hell. someone l-1 me already so i can just prove you guys wrong again.

---------- Post automerged at 10:32 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:31 AM ----------

titus, the hypo claims are moot now, drop it

---------- Post automerged at 10:44 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:32 AM ----------

after my lynch look at cirtus/rubi

moreso cirtus then rubi first.

 

Nah, Citrus isn't pushing conclusions and trying to dominate. I don't see him as scum. Town Citrus does a lot of things to try and break the game but not rush to jydgement.


My gut is strongly saying Rubicon and Snowvon or TerRaine.

 

There's still quite a few people that haven't posted toDay, we might as well wait to get their thoughts, unless you're really that eager.

---------- Post automerged at 10:53 ---------- Previous post was at 10:52 ----------

Titus if ika gets lynched and flips scum, where would you look next?

 

Mother's Day weekend is really fun but making it hard to mafia post. Currently out with mom. Will be online in a few hours. << Posted from my phone.

 

titus, think long and hard about our hydra game and how we do our reads.

every time we have opposing reads if we think the opposite it seems to be right

your town reading cirtus, im scum reading cirtus.

i was town reading rubi, your scum reading rubi.

most times we opposed on a read (you town/me scum) they would end up being scum and vice versa.

if your just gonna focus on rubi first then by all means go ahead. but do me a favor and l-1 me so i can be put out of my misery. if nobody is willing to even try to listen at this point, i might as well self hammer to confrim my town.

all i have seen is "ika anti-town this, anti-town that"

ya thats been fucking explain already, and nobody seem to think for one second.

Everyons just a one-trck mind now, seer fliped ika must be scum. I'm done helpign or giving out jack. You have my reads, now deal with it.

 

1. When I said tunnel, I meant to focus on one player to the exclusion of others, which is what Von was doing much of yesterday when he kept trying to turn the discussion back toward Lyrium. The two do not contradict each other because his answers being "wishy-washy" refers to his reaction to questioning, rather than his attacks on others.

2. I asked that question of Rubicon because:
- He was in thread at the time
- He's one of my strongest townreads
- He has experience
If you want to answer the question as well, feel free to.

Also, @Von: What do you think of Titus's hypoclaim plan, and how the seer's death has affected it?

@Titus: What is your take on the interactions between Von and Ika on Day 1?

---------- Post automerged at 12:09 ---------- Previous post was at 12:09 ----------

Additionally, I am moving into a new apartment today, and will be absent for most of the evening.

 

If ika flipped scum, my first step would be to look at ika's vca and interactions to see what he ignored or minimized and players who did subtle defenses of ika. I would begin to PoE and say not Mathblade due to the strong antiika opening. Rubi's looks like a bus vote entirely. My gut would say Rubi TerRaine but I would have a lot of rereading to do.

ika, stop bitching. Emotion only gets you so far. If scum want you lynched at end game, they'll have to kill me or render both of us useless. Just play as if you are conftown. If you get lynched, who cares...you figured you would get lynched anyway.


Dermon, my reply is coming in another post.

 

Wait, how do you know this cirtus? How do you know they couldnt talk pregame?

sounds like something only WW would of known