I'd prefer today be a no lynch. Scum has us all in weird places. We need to get unified and quickly and share information across to everyone. Plus this gives us another night kill to analyze when we awake in the morning. Every time we've flashmobbed it has been in a hurry and wrong. We need to slow down and think. We're trying to play beat the clock which is what scum wants instead of slowing down and thinking.

These are all "worst" case scenario IE Town screws up. If we lynch scum the argument is pointless as we win. But since I think Sloth is scum I have to assume that a townie will be lynched or a no lynch will occur.

Option 1: Today assume we lynch a townie. Scum kills someone. This leaves 4 players. We lynch a townie. Scum kills someone. This leaves 2 players. Scum wins. Total: 2 lynches. Days added for investigation: 2 (including today)

Option 2: Today assume we lynch a townie. Scum kills someone. This leaves 4 players. We no lynch. This leaves three players. A lynch has to occur in the day and will end the game. Total: 2 lynches. Days added for investigation: 3 (including today)

Option 3: No lynch. Scum night kills. 5 players remain. Town lynch then scum kill leaves 3 players. Forced lynch to end the game. Total Lynches: 2 lynches Days: 3 (including today)

If we go option 4 I will yell at the rest of my townies into the next century.
Option 4: No lynch 2 times in a row. 4 players remain. Lynch correctly or lose is triggered. Lynches: 1 Days: 3

If we no lynch today it would be stupid to not lynch tomorrow, but if we lynch today it's almost better to force discussion and no lynch to have more evidence in the final battle. Have all four people post their who is the most scum in the last hours when four players are left and then let the final three duke it out.

Yes normally it is anti-town to suggest a no lynch but we have limited ammo and if we get too eager in our lynching town would loses information and puts themselves in a tougher spot.

 

@Rubicon

Examples: 1272 (I liked how he pressured Atum over this), 1278 (didn't really care for the first part, but it's plausible at this point, what I like the most is how he replied to your vote over his 'defending' ter), 1502 (analysis of Atum/response to you), 1525 (analysis of you/Dermon, which I actually hadn't noticed myself), 1543.
Point being he's not exactly the best player, but I said better. Compare this to D1 & D2.
While I admit it's an assumption, you don't see Snow as the kind to not be able to handle that kind of pressure at this point?

I saw Snow asking you, but I didn't see the response.
It took me several rereads to understand what you were saying here.

Titus is not a strong player?

--
@Mathblade

If I thought your arguments were bullshit, I'd have said they were bullshit. I've been saying the same thing I've said before: No one can quite follow your logic, and I'm far from the only one that's said so. Don't take this to a personal place, it's not meant to be. (out of game note: I don't quite think you are, I just want to make sure you understand what I'm trying to say this section)

Rule 01: If you think Sloth's scared, you're already wrong. This is a game, Math.
Also, read my post carefully. I'm honestly and clearly telling you what's wrong with your analysis. You're free to disagree, but that won't make it any less true.
I'm trying to show you why your logic is faulty because this is almost the worst possible time to turn around after the entire game and suddenly decide I must be scum.

I do believe that.
What you're not getting is that I think we have two strong leads (Atum and Rubicon), and one weak one (Snow), and only one more chance for a mislynch. If we mislynch Today, we have one chance tomorrow, and if we mislynch then, we lose. Period. That's what happens in a reveal-set-up when you get to the endgame.
I don't want to be lynched because it reduces our chance to win by 50%. If I DO get lynched, I suppose that's fine (although, I really hope it's over a valid, well-thought-out agrument), but you need to be absolutely certain on who tomorrow's lynch would be.

...Don't mock this. Again. Am I clear? I don't insult your RL events.
But yes. I expect you to believe me.
By we, I mean literally EVERY PLAYER HERE.
Lying about RL stuff is against the rules. It gets you blacklisted from games.
It's not done. Period.
Ask anyone that's been here a while - Your sister, Rubicon, your mentor if you have one, even Riley. It's a rule we all listen to.

I've responded to all of this, even what you bring up here, in my post in response.

Huh to the underline part?
As for the first, I already told you: I don't want to be lynched at this late stage, but if it happens, fine.
I'm trying to explain why you're wrong.

I'm going to be blunt: Do you see anyone following your argument on me?
I don't either.
Do you think I'm not smart enough to know no one would based on how it doesn't make sense? Because I am. You haven't even addressed my response, instead stubbornly hold on to the idea I'm scum.

Do you get it? I'm not trying to convince them. I'm trying to convince you.
Now is not the time to fall apart.

Now, keep your vote on me, whatever. What do you think about my Atum case?

 

Can you clarify your question please Delphine? Citrus didn't flip town til he was dead.

 

Read my post, I explain that, and I have precedence to back it up.
Also, read my first post today. I didn't ask for time. I just let you know I was here. Like I said, I wanted to get this done.
Like I already explained, something good happened RL on Friday, so I celebrated with friends and then passed out.

---------- Post automerged at 04:27 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:26 PM ----------

Delphine, I asked you a question about your Scumreads?

 

Got it. I didn't know this was a blacklisted offense. *blush* Won't happen again sorry. *meeps into corner*

About the other stuff I will have to reread and compose an argument on. It will take time to do so.

 

Snowvon seems surprised Rubi didn't die N3 and I was suggesting that Rubi didn't exactly get town cred from the citrus lynch and wondering why snow thinks that

---------- Post automerged at 02:32 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:30 PM ----------

I want to lynch Atum and would maybe compromise on Snowvon

 

Those two I will not support or vote on. They are way too far down my reads. My compromise would be Rubicon.

 

@Snowvon

...You're the one that put those flirting Lyrium tags, aren't you?

--
@Delphine

Which are?

--
@Mathblade

Why not Atum? You had a high read on him. Tell me what about my case doesn't strike you as plausible.

Also, your 1550 doesn't have a case on him, why is that?

 

Starting to lean NL since a lot of purple have drastically changed their reads and could benefit from additional time to solve the game
I also don't feel confident enough that id prefer to NL D4 since I uh wasted a lot of time responding to sloth yday and now I dint have a laptop to reread w/ and won't tilllike right at DL

---------- Post automerged at 02:47 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:46 PM ----------

I was referring to atm and snow but then snow ninja d me

 

Working on the first part.

The second part was my entire case is he is being framed.

 

@Rubicon

Still waiting for that town case, you know. At this point I'm wondering if you're avoiding this.

--

@Snowvon

How did you pick dermon out of 13 players? I never noticed this till now.

---------- Post automerged at 04:49 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:48 PM ----------

Yes, but what convinces you? Why frame him, when he was generally seen as Town for the first part of the game? Etc.
Occam's Razor, Mathblade.

---------- Post automerged at 04:50 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:49 PM ----------

Anyway, I gotta drive home. I'll check on the thread when I get back (~1 hour), and should be home for the rest of the day to answer questions.

Good luck guys.

 

@Sloth

Nope.

I picked Dermon because he was the only player I know IRL.

@Monochrome

I like how you're calling us purple. Keep the typo, it's fun.

 

This is a general explanation I'll need to back it up with specific quotes later.

That razor got us into this place. It was simple to believe ika was scum or needed to be taken out. It was simple to think that Citrus was scum. It was simple to lynch Maiden on hardly anything at all. If we keep following that razor we're going to fuck this over for town.

Scum wants mislynches. We provided this mislynch to scum on a silver platter by poking Atum and Atum didn't change his gameplay at all except for his one hyper defensive post pre mod flip. Your argument in general relies on the fact he'd ignore his mentor for most of it and do things that are simplistic scum tells. I.E. what's damning is is interaction with Dermon. Really? Fonti seems like a great mentor and if I was a mentor I would advice a first time player to ignore Dermon. Hard to build a case on what isn't there. It's the same reason you had some of your alignment groups before.

This is why I want to go for the not simple.When I had to reanalyzed after mbond showed wolf I had to go back at the night kills as if the entire game was a one scum game instead of two. That is why I really like you for scum in combination with some of your redirection posts.

---------- Post automerged at 16:56 ---------- Previous post was at 16:56 ----------

Purple is my favorite color

 

I'm going to be in a movie for the next couple hours but I've seen it before so I'll be phone lurking, mostly just to see if I need to change my vote.

 

This is the original argument I think Sloth was referring to. Sloth if you have another one I should be refuting let me know and I'll respond to that one too.

Point 1 -- Not really a point. If you were scum, then you could put someone early and then just claim it later. Give you the benefit of the doubt, I think Atum is right here for calling you out that you didn't push it more. A scum read in name only doesn't really earn you cred here. I'll need to reread the thread to see where you try to poke Snow but I agree with Atum on this one.

Point 2 -- Again Atum seems truthful here. A mentor shouldn't influence the reads like we yelled at Titus for doing but give advice on how to play based on the players current belief set. Him not doing something because it is his first game sounds probable even with a mentor. Some things you learn by doing.

Point 3 -- I think this is a genuine newbie question. This rest is opinion based on observation: Newbies tend not to have a reckless abandon when coming into the game. Half newbies tend to go to the other extreme and try to be as reckless as possible. True experts I think have learned to taper where to be reckless and where to be cautious.

Point 4 -- Fence sitting was his play. IMO he did need to be more active and definitive and I called him out for it. I'm not sure why you pick this post or how it bolsters any argument you have.

Point 5 -- The same argument could be used for you. Your first post was about an hour after mbond got killed. Again, players have made mistakes and it is his first game. What I find interesting is you include it in your argument only after I mention your pressure of him was weak. Now I know yours was RL and his was newbie. Both of which IMO should get benefit of the doubt for.

Point 6 -- I'm guessing it is me? I am the type to do the over dramatic stuff like Titus pointed out.

-------

Another argument for: While he didn't do much productively I did like that he questioned me as scum. While I'm town it does show creativity and thinking outside of the box. If he was scum why would he push back on a person who has little to no chance of being lynched?


Based on this I really can't see him as being scum. Just a newbie player.

---------- Post automerged at 17:32 ---------- Previous post was at 17:17 ----------

While rereading found another argument....In the process of analyzing https://forums.darklordpotter.net/showpost.php?p=725407&postcount=1532

---------- Post automerged at 18:05 ---------- Previous post was at 17:32 ----------

Doing this one in line.

351 - Reasons for his three suspects are iffy.

It's day one. If anyone has perfect reasoning they are either a mindreader or excellent. This is first day newb...Having just iffy is not an argument to me and is more appeal to emotion to me. I don't see why it is iffy.

394 - Wants Lyrium to be werewolf, Lyrium dies. (This means nothing, but I'm wondering if it's something like 'my sort-of scumread died first Day, I was totally off, get it together, Town.')


If your point means nothing why is it here. I'm not putting effort into countering a point you yourself don't believe.

394 - 'Seer Hope' question still seems odd with Dermon as answer.

Again this paints him in a townie light. What you haven't mentioned is that he hopes to god you aren't scum. He's starting to think outside the box and pressure everyone. This means he will eventually pressure you. The less pressure on you the better.

890 - Explains Seer Hope. Plausible, but Ter was actually about as active, and he gives an excellent reason to have answered Burkion instead.

Seems really plausible to me. Very townie.

485 - Accused ika of focusing on Maiden and Snow at the exclusion of everyone else.


And this is good because ika was trolling? Not seeing the scumminess here.

602 - Claims ika scummy if Maiden town, due to switch from snow to maiden. This is what Delphine was talking about, although I'm not seeing the issue. It’s an easy-to-follow train of thought.

Agreed no issue here.

485 - Said reasonings to vote Maiden weren't substantial.

And this is a good town play...Day one lynches rarely if ever have substance to them.

511 - Once again gives the impression that he sees no reason to vote maiden.

Asked and answers.

602 - Says he sees Maiden now, based on arguments - except arguments, at this point, were mostly 'look, she's already primed and ready, so unless you want to switch to mathblade...' so I'm not seeing the sway factor of any of them, except #557, where Maiden lists him as Lean Scum (unsure, since this seems fairly weak, but maybe nervous newbie scum would?). Places no vote.

Newbies have a really hard time convincing people and can see off in their explanations/reads and provide easy kills for scum. And placing no vote is his consistent play and I've explained where this matches with a newbie.

603 - Claims he now knows he won't make it to Nightfall, still doesn't vote.

Yes...A derp is plausible.

667 - Explains reasons for no vote. First game derp. ...Plausible, but what does ‘first game’ have to do with not knowing to vote? He has claimed past experience (around 10-20 rounds on dpicmafia.com) in non-forum games, and I have yet to play any format of mafia where votes weren't important. Even in my first game, I knew the importance of them, and I didn’t know they were changeable.

A no vote in comparison with his previous play seems plausible. Atum seems really cautious and needs to get brave and bold or we may lose this game.

713 - 'Adjusting to the idea of using votes for pressure' ??? We were clearly voting for lynch at this point.

I can buy the adjusting to votes. What I don't buy is why his vote hasn't come quicker after that point. This is the truly damning part of the statement because it is factual and not belief based...However this fact could be explained away by the cautious play argument I mentioned.


811 - I've given my thoughts on this post and what makes me frown on rereads on #1397.

Since addressed later I'm ignoring to later.

955 - He asks placeholder questions at times (i.e. questions with obvious or clear answers made simply to look like you're asking questions.)

Maybe these questions are placeholder to you but I think they are gems. if you were scum keeping ika around hides suspicion. Your argument is that it was better for town to lynch and ika self lynched in what looks to be the interest of time and/or wanting obs.

Definite props to Atum.

1235 - Calls Mathblade Town. List Terraine as Scumpect for both possible teams.

He's NEW. Reads change.

1269 - Votes TerRaine first thing, like he did ika, possibly trying to rectify his lack of voting D1, and going for the common factor in his teams. Calls #1253 not actual Scumhunting.

Seems legit to me with him saying his votes should come quicker. About the scum hunting he's learning to recognize what it is. This could have been him experimenting with a pressure vote. He mentioned it was his intention to wagon later on and I buy this. I just don't think he has enough experience to lead/carry a wagon yet.


1276 - His very next post reveals his vote on TerRaine to basically amount to "Titus said so," despite all of Titus' arguments being dismantled and she burying her head in the sand about it. Also reveals he just skimmed Teraine's #1253, pretty much destroying his 'not actual scumhunting' argument and making it clear he voted just to vote.

Uhm, Titus's arguments may have been dismantled but that doesn't mean he didn't believe them. I mean some of my mod confirmed stuff seemed off to you but you finally came around on Delphine. It is an extremely good play to not take things at face value from town. This means he's analyzing and attempting to play. Not well, but attempting to play. And yes, everyone can fall victim to the skim but his argument is still well laid out and I like it.


1361 - First line, the disclaimer, is the very definition of apologetic backpedaling after being pressed. If scum, he expected an easy mislynch here, and didn't get it. Then he unvotes. Which is weird because his case and response against her is fair (aside from the Rubicon quote), yet did it anyway, claiming he had bigger suspects...which he never votes on.

I like the honesty here. It just seems like he thinks Ter is town.


667 - Lean town for Snow.
So?


1276 - reveals...something about Snow. Does he find him scummy just hasn't said anything? (kay?) or, despite everything that's happened, he sees him as town based on gut?

Again rubs me as honest. A derp not to present an argument but still newbie.

1461 - wait, I just noticed this, why is TerRaine, the most recent NK, not in this list? (also Delpine = Monochrome)

That could be a misunderstanding. It wasn't labelled well plus I think he or someone else asked about it later. I will have to search for this post that asks.

1483 - Not sure what to make of his team, but this plus 1461 makes me notice he's distanced himself from TerRaine completely.

So? Terraine was a prior day...This is a new day with new information...It seems like he gravitated well before that point.

 

Vote Count:

Atum (2) - Sloth, Rubicon
Sloth(1) – MathBlade
Rubicon (1) – SnowVon

With 7 alive its 4 to lynch.

Day Ends at this time.

 

Back. Catching up.

---------- Post automerged at 06:13 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:12 PM ----------

There's 40 minutes before the end of the Day. Are we going with NL?
How many people are here right now?

 

You me and Atum off and on is all I see. Door and some other random user is all I see.

Rubicon and Snow are AFK but promised to check in as they could.
Delphine hasn't put her vote anywhere and IMO I think no lynch is the best strategy...

I will not help flash lynch with this much indecisiveness.

---------- Post automerged at 18:17 ---------- Previous post was at 18:16 ----------

Scratch that Rubicon is away...He left a few hours ago.

 

Present.

/10

 

Reading the thread but AFK...I am going to be working on my Sloth argument in case I get night killed.