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Batmafia #2

Discussion in 'Little Italy' started by Koalas, Nov 26, 2014.

  1. MathBlade

    MathBlade First Year

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    This is Mafia. One cannot support random.

    Because I had to analyze the flip. That takes time. I was running late to the thread due to RL and started interacting. After that when the time of townie derp picked up I had to make a lot of noise. If I suddenly went rational, there would have been more <redacted>. So pretty much I had to achieve my explanation without explaining this.
     
  2. Lyrium

    Lyrium Sent Back to India

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    ok nm Quanksor, it sucks though. and agree with titus, next time tell the mods that you are unavailable for 48 hours..at one point there was talk of replacing you. we also play irc mafia and you might want to check it out

    going to bed now, all warm and fuzzzy.

    hey von, quiggly is on the thread. do you haz questions?
     
  3. Titus

    Titus Squib

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    Well if we suppose an intelligent blocker, than makes it more likely that GA or Batman hit Croc, not less.

    Plus, you should have argued inactive Croc sooner. Still shit but Lyrium and Zenzao pushed that and I suspected them for it.
     
  4. MathBlade

    MathBlade First Year

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    Yeah :/ And just because you insisted

    A 1/16 chance Green Arrow hits Killer Croc and /or person bus driven with. That is less than 20%. So playing odds it is more likely I am right. I got scolded by a certain person on FS for playing odds in mafia so I try to avoid that.
     
  5. Lyrium

    Lyrium Sent Back to India

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    Quiggly since I"m town, I would cooperate with the Batman. I mean after teasing it a bit because like woah.

    Most likely I would say, "This is my role and stuff" and then "

    However, Batman cant make people tell the truth so it needs to have grains of salt and 2. careful that people cant read its voice.
     
  6. MathBlade

    MathBlade First Year

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    If you include Batman then 2/16 which is 25% but again the lack of mention at start of day nips that in the butt. I think Titus is doing a brilliant scum game but IMO she and I will be dueling and we need this fixed tomorrow.
     
  7. Titus

    Titus Squib

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    No. Wrong. We started with 15 because 2 people had to sit. Sloth was lynched making 14. Batman nor GA hit themselves making 13. Two obvtowns makes 11.
     
  8. Lyrium

    Lyrium Sent Back to India

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    If I were Batman I would write out a list of questions and then take out all personality from them and maybe interject some weird phrases or linguistics so that if I interrogation a scum they cant read me.

    Although, thinking about it now...that scum would be in jail and couldn't chat with the scum team right?
     
  9. Titus

    Titus Squib

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    You calculate odds by using 1 minus event occurrance. Both at 10/11 odds creates... 1 - (10/11) ^ 2 or .182 odds which is roughly 20 percent.
     
  10. Lyrium

    Lyrium Sent Back to India

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    someone asked how i feel about atum. i feel like he needs to make 100 more posts. that is what i feel.

    what do we think about booster switching their two top scum targets? would that make scum act on each other?
     
  11. Quiddity

    Quiddity Squib ~ Prestige ~

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    These have been iterated many, many times as possibilities over today, and you deliberately chose to wait until Twilight to bring this up?

    List of activities that go before devour:

    +Booster Gold switching self
    +Batman's Interrogation
    +Green Arrow's Roleblock
    +Booster Gold switch (not targeting self)
    +Black Canary's Protection
    +Oracle's Protection

    We have Batman, Booster Gold, Green Arrow, a Black Canary/Penguin interaction all as role-related possibilities. We have the scum simply choosing not to target. And then we have the possibility which, for some reason or another, you have chosen to consider as the only one - that scum operate under a different philosophy than any game I (or Titus, apparently) have ever played under, and inactivity forced it as such.

    Leaving aside the improbability of all this, why the fuck would you never mention it in-thread, for all of the long and circuitousness period of Day2? I can understand not coming out with it outright, but when, from your perspective, you know for certain that another player is scum and it costs the town nothing to have it out in the open, why not bring it out?

    The only ways this make sense are if you are:
    a) town which puts their own life ahead of the greater good, which you seem to countermand when you said you'd die before Lyrium and so on (if so, was this lying?)
    b) town that thought you could get your scum-certain lynched regardless (you hammered Quank, and there was probably enough time to turn it around....)
    c) The Riddler. Honestly, this seems to make a lot of sense.
    d) Scum, who either never voiced it to be corrected or is right, being afraid of getting lynched (or all of this is put on, blahblahblah)

    Seriously, why never mention it in-thread throughout the day?
     
  12. MathBlade

    MathBlade First Year

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    I forgot the subtraction of self sorry. I thought 16 players left alive. You're right it is 2/15. So a little over 25% sorry.

    17 start of game.
    16 after lynch of Sloth.
    15 after removing GA and Batman. Can only count once since Batman/GA don't know each other.
    Can't assume GA/Batman pick up obv townies.

    But yeah this quibble defeats the point.

    Because of this and some wordings IMO there is a lot to be desired but Titus/Mala likely scum together. I applaud their game and I feel bad for asking and didn't put it together until later. I wouldn't have asked you to replace in if I hadn't had realized the mechanics were that damning.
     
  13. Titus

    Titus Squib

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    Reread post 1. Fifteen at start.

    ---------- Post automerged at 09:51 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:50 PM ----------

    +1

    /tenchar
     
  14. Quiddity

    Quiddity Squib ~ Prestige ~

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    Also, why did both Mala and Titus have to be scum (by your reasoning, surely only one needs to be)? And why Titus first and foremost?
     
  15. MathBlade

    MathBlade First Year

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    As I said I couldn't mention it in the thread. Quick version

    1) Town was being stupid and <redacted> happened. This means draw attention away from <redacted>.
    2) I have information even more than this I cannot share. Just can't.

    Because of these things it becomes infinitely likely for me to be a NK or mislynch target. The less I give scum they can't paint me as scummy.

    I held out as long as I could but I needed a long enough Twilight to ensure all of this was thought about so people understand why for this game I cannot drop a Titus tunnel. Just can't.

    ---------- Post automerged at 21:58 ---------- Previous post was at 21:52 ----------

    At first I wasn't sure about Mala. Hence begging and pleading for her to be townie. However the forced plan of Quanksor first and Titus was strategic. It felt so damn fake. Then her solid agreement of Titus being scum meant both of them together. If Mala would have rebelled and/or interacted with other people more and showed something other than mid ground or likely Town Scum Town Town as her scum reads I probably would have believed she was town.

    Titus was first and foremost because of the vote drop and her not doing <X> as town when asked. It is a trope she always does as town but she hasn't done it as scum. I read a lot of her games because my sister while I know her I do have a scum bias. I specifically went through 3-4 of her town games and she did this town thing every time. I kept pressuring her inanely hoping and praying she would do <X> she didn't.
     
  16. Quiddity

    Quiddity Squib ~ Prestige ~

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    What is redacted? If it is anything role-concerning, than surely distracting from it is a positive thing? If it is not, than there is no reason not to explain it in thread.

    And explain the unexplained.

    It ought not to be role info, because as is the basis of this entire interlude, you are unable to use your role last night. So explain number 2.


    I don't see how either of those are going to paint you as scummy. And I can't see why there'd be correlation between NK and mislynch, but W/E.
     
  17. Titus

    Titus Squib

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    Evenwhen in your words you say at least 1 out of every four games you will be wrong about me or Mala being scum?

    Even when there is zero way to condemn based on night actions and evidence house was present at night (thus blowing your theory entirely)? You still refuse to reconsider?
     
  18. MathBlade

    MathBlade First Year

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    @Titus phone posting 17 to start at d1 15 to start d2 hence 8 required to lynch

    So 15 possible targets for GA/Batman N1
     
  19. Quiddity

    Quiddity Squib ~ Prestige ~

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    For Pete's sake man, stop self-censorsing. It's dramatically hurting your credibility. What's <x>?
     
  20. MathBlade

    MathBlade First Year

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    Redacted is redacted because <redacted>. Pretty much I am probably crossing about 10 lines so the Riddler probably knows who I am. And I will trade myself for Titus/Mala scum. I will.

    ---------- Post automerged at 22:03 ---------- Previous post was at 22:02 ----------

    <X> is a variable placeholder I use to not say the truth which would be stupid and anti town.

    ---------- Post automerged at 22:03 ---------- Previous post was at 22:03 ----------

    And I am female.

    ---------- Post automerged at 22:04 ---------- Previous post was at 22:03 ----------

    You and I we know House. It isn't fair for me to explain why but I can't reconsider. I am pretty much vote parking Titus because I have to.