What? I'm still looking through the thread making the case against you. It'll be here soon.

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I hope. This thread is insanely bloated.

 

atum, i await your epiphanies...

did anyone check out ter's voting variance thing? I looked at it but then had a mini like panic due to the numbers. is it something in mafia like interaction analysis?

fluffy, i believe in you.

rubicon, what do you think of titus's numbers?

 

Her voting variance thing was to show that people's reads differed a lot from Citrus's, and so that his argument that Titus's reads being different from his means that she's scum was meritless.

The numbers were just the differences in numbers in TerRaine's "rank everyone by scum number" quiz between Citrus and others.

 

And this is why I was grateful I was voted off the Island in Zeit's Survivor early enough in December last year.

Alright. I don't have the time or retention capacity now to go over the new pages in detail. I skimmed since my last post and small bits and pieces have stood out.

LYLO/MYLO rundown.
14 players currently alive(9 town+4 group Scum+1 Riddler) as of D3.
------
We lynch someone at DayEnd. Riley doesn't return and can't be replaced. 2 dead. Given our track record between CYS and this game thus far let's assume we lose 2 town in this instance, I'll cover other odds later.
12 players alive(7 town+4 group Scum+1 Riddler)
-------
N3 Scum deliver again and NK. Assuming they hit town rather than Riddler or redirect the numbers fall to 11 players by NightEnd.
-------
11 players D4(6 town+4 Scum+1 Riddler).
Two Face auto-lynches. Scum NK N4.
------
D5
9 players(4 town+4 Scum+1 Riddler).

Lynch TwoFace immediately. Remaining Scum NK.
------
D6
7 players alive(2 town+3 Scum+1 Riddler).

If everything goes to hell in a handbasket, we're in LYLO as soon as D4 I believe. Otherwise D5/6 if we actually lynch Scum toDay, and remaining Scum do not NK, and Riddler does not hit anyone at any time.

Factor in another myslynch+NK+Riddler and we're already looking at LYLO toDay IIRC.

---------- Post automerged at 23:50 ---------- Previous post was at 23:49 ----------

And this is why I was grateful I was voted off the Island in Zeit's Survivor early enough in December last year.

Alright. I don't have the time or retention capacity now to go over the new pages in detail. I skimmed since my last post and small bits and pieces have stood out.

LYLO/MYLO rundown.
14 players currently alive(9 town+4 group Scum+1 Riddler) as of D3.
------
We lynch someone at DayEnd. Riley doesn't return and can't be replaced. 2 dead. Given our track record between CYS and this game thus far let's assume we lose 2 town in this instance, I'll cover other odds later.
12 players alive(7 town+4 group Scum+1 Riddler)
-------
N3 Scum deliver again and NK. Assuming they hit town rather than Riddler or redirect the numbers fall to 11 players by NightEnd.
-------
11 players D4(6 town+4 Scum+1 Riddler).
Two Face auto-lynches. Scum NK N4.
------
D5
9 players(4 town+4 Scum+1 Riddler).

Lynch TwoFace immediately. Remaining Scum NK.
------
D6
7 players alive(2 town+3 Scum+1 Riddler).

If everything goes to hell in a handbasket, we're in LYLO as soon as D4 I believe. Otherwise D5/6 if we actually lynch Scum toDay, and remaining Scum do not NK, and Riddler does not hit anyone at any time.

Factor in another myslynch+NK+Riddler and we're already looking at LYLO toDay IIRC.

---------- Post automerged at 23:54 ---------- Previous post was at 23:50 ----------

Bloody mobile

And that should read 3 town+3 Scum+1 Riddler at D6.

 

The Case Against Rubicon: Part II

Like I said before, there’s Rubicon’s whole attitude about Quanksor that I find hugely suspicious.

Early in Day 2, he’s quick to scum read Quanksor for not participating and scum hunting enough.

Notice what Rubicon is voting Quanksor for: his attitude towards the game.

However, towards the end of the day, once Quanksor’s lynch is basically inevitable, then Rubicon starts town reading him for the exact same thing he said he had scum read him for.

That seems to me as if, knowing that Quank will be mislynched, Rubicon is setting himself up to earn town points by saying that he didn’t want Quank lynched, when he didn’t even particularly try to move the lynch onto someone else, unvoting Quanksor’s contesting wagon (Titus) too when it was still competitive, despite the fact that Titus was supposedly a scum read of his. Notice where Quank and Titus are on his read list.

There’s also the matter of Rubicon doubtcasting TerRaine and once again contradicting himself. His main complaint seems to be that TerRaine is only looking at Lyrium.

From Day 2: (Rubicon to TerRaine)

From day 3:

Meanwhile, when Lyrium complains to TerRaine that she’s only looking at her, here’s what Rubicon says.

See a slight contradiction between this and what he said before and after?

TL;DR: Rubicon tastes like delicious waffles, and doesn't seem to actually try and keep his town reads alive/follow his stated reads.

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Good night all.

 

Ok I am out for the night. My sister and I have an evening engagement tomorrow.

Will try to catch up before then.

Good night.

 

@Lyrium -- Based on the quick NK work I was doing I think that we really need to get scum today or we are in a shitty position. I think we need to execute the ice cream plan today. I know you said you didn't want to today but I think this needs to happen for numbers. That and my waffling townread and fucked up mechanics possibly.

@Terraine -- I saw something I didn't like of Lyrium's while I was working on my Titus's wall. I'm not 100% sure my mechanics weren't fucked with.

Pretty much it looks like Lyrium threatened to NK Titus saying if she escaped the lynch she would die.

So now I have two fucking teams possible which is why I need Titus to crumb to me properly...*sigh* Because in one world she could be town even though she is acting like the scummiest I have ever seen her play. Everything on paper says scum.

So the way I see it is

Titus/Mala/Q/{his fluff..This is a maybe}

OR

Mala/Lyrium/Citrus/TBD maybe still his fluff

The problem is Ter that I had you down for role X crumbing earlier and now you are crumbing Y if I read correctly. Normally I would scum read someone for two crumbs but X could have been a change in conversation.

Therefore on paper Titus is scum but I got sidetracked from my wall because of Lyrium's post.

Unvote

The problematic post:

Explain to the class how you will end up killing Titus today if she doesn't die if you aren't scum??

 

fluffy, a number of your posts either leave out context or distort what others say.

Take #963. TerRaine pointed out that you were cherry picking from Citrus' posts to fit the point you wanted to make, while ignoring others posts which didn't fit. You didn't respond to this.

In The Case Against Rubicon, Part I you turned me saying that I "can't be too upset about" Quanksor's lynch into me saying his lynch was "a good thing, at the same level as the lynch of my top scum read."

This time you turn "the willfulness of what Quanksor is doing if town is ugh" into saying it makes him scum. No, it makes him ugh. And in context, I had just said he was either scum or an idiot, and Titus was trying to get me to realize that we're all idiots sometimes.

That happened early in day two. I was asking myself if he could be Riddler and pressing Titus to explain what really seemed like too strong a read to me. (That's the context for the first quote.)

I actually said Quanksor could be town for his play on day one, though - a long time before the last minute.

The TerRaine thing is just... missing the point. Or the timing. I point out that Ter isn't scumhunting other players. Ter drops a wall scumhunting other players. I point it out to Lyrium. A game day later I notice the pattern is still holding true, so I poke her again. Makes sense, right?

So what's up?

 

Wait Mala is a part of both of those!

Vote Malakittens

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@Titus: Can you defy logic? If so I have an idea on how you can prove you are town without having to die. I think I understand you did the crumb backwards.

Titus why can't you crumb like a normal person

 

I think Lyrium and Titus are both town. I can't find three good partners for Titus, and her being the Riddler doesn't work for me.

And I think I believe what she's trying to sell me about her meta. It fits her play, going back to much earlier in the game. (Aspects of her meta have definitely evolved: She even bussed her whole team in a recent scum game!)

As far as numbers... we need to lynch scum today. But that means not tunneling the fuck out of town.

 

See here is the problem.

Either Lyrium and Citrus are both town and speaking in a code they created pregame or they are both scum since Lyrium outright said she wasn't visited by Batman. She is still continuing to do it and threatened Titus's life to NK her and I'm pretty damn sure that wasn't a joke.

It is POSSIBLE that someone fucked with one of my mechanics possibly Booster Gold that jackass. However they would have to be an idiot to do what they did day 1 for that mechanics.

See I've been trying to plot not just around the NK but what everyone would do. For what to have happened happened the only way I see that is if Booster Gold was an unknowing idiot.

And for that to happen that might mean...

Unvote

Damn it there is a fringe case where Mala may not be scum too...

Shit people. God damn this all to hell. I had this broken until Lyrium fucked it up by scum claiming too...

Now the argument against Titus is null and void because then Titus and Lyrium would be working together and that world is insane.

 

I nominate Q, Atum, or Mala for death.

 

I nominate MathBlade is restructuring the game with known crumbs only accepted from other people. Then she is restructuring everything...including Titus and Mala.

@Mala - Got any bread or want to?

P.S. Titus I'm sorry and Mala if you were town I'm sorry too.

 

I really don't see why you'd crumb openly in response to someone. Either it's subtle, and you can fake do it and twist later, or its blatant enough that Riddler take it and run.

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I don't follow this, sorry. What code?

 

@Rubicon:

Question for you my man if you're still on

@Snowvon:

Thoughts on Rubicon?

@Q:

People do it all the time subconsciously as well as unsubconsciously. It's not a matter of if someone crumbs it is when.

 

Mathblade, reconsider Lyrium. Can she really only be scumclaiming there?

 

Lyrium is capitalizing random letters in her posts every once in a while for no apparent reason. First time I caught it she said it was her phone. Second time she said she wouldn't stop. Citrus I asked about it said his phone wasn't malfunctioning.

So just search for malfunction or malfunctioning in posts.

They both have some weird ass capitalization in some of their posts. I don't like it. It goes against the rules on the front page if anything.

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I'm not sure. That's why I want her explanation. It's why I asked the question and I'm not voting anyone. I'm trying to understand what is going on here.

 

Well personally I generally have a couple of very specific ways to prove I am the role I know I will claim (scum or town - though I've never played an open game as scum), and other than that I avoid the subject entirely and when it comes up try and hint away from the truth of the matter - so if I'm a baner, I'll make sure to make a call out to baners when we see a confirmed town, and so on. Personally, I see role hunting as a practice best suited for scum (though that may be because of how bad I am at it), and think avoiding it/throwing it off to be best practice as town.

From the presmise that I'm town, make a note in your QTs as to who you think I'd be. I guarantee most of you are wrong.

 

Atum just asked me about Rubicon. Still think he's town.

 

Think on it. Read the first post. Then stomp on said thought and never bring it up again.

Its a null tell, at best and at worst.