Best news I've heard all day. And sorry about the activity, going through Jan's, well anyone's stuff, post by post is mind numbingly tedious.
Newcomb Massive apologies for doing this but we need you in here.

 

Do you agree that Snow should have had more of a reaction to Titus/TMNT/Waco dying lastNight? In fact I'll go ahead and ply this question to the game thread as a whole. Does Snow's lack of interest and statement of it not being a bad thing fit into a pro-town!Snowvon world that any of the rest of us who have played with him would recognize?

And yes, I'm attacking everything with the kitchen sink. This Day has, so far, been running at a pace so relaxed it disgusts me. The game really did die with Math and Titus because apparently no one else is bothering to contribute thoughts on each other without one of them lighting a candle under our asses.

If this offends you; good. Do something about it.

New, first and foremost he and Titus confirmed each other(and this confirmed that Titus was just being an unreasonable asshole for most of the previous Day rather than a liar). And New's behavior has been, to be frank, a paragon by comparison to the rest of us. He's pushed his views and asked for opinions and put himself out there repeatedly by not just backing down when confronted with things he doesn't really know.

Pozzai, second for townfirming himself and Waco. He's admitted that some of his stuff has come off as Scummy, so he isn't afraid to accept his own faults, but he doesn't just back down at that either and pushes his reasoning for most of what he's done and said.

Aside from those two, I'm clearly Scumreading you and Snow. I'm iffy on Citrus, Jan, and Typhon. That leaves Kalas. He pushed rather hard on TMNT D1 and both Titus and I referred to this rundown on reasons why TMNT was probable Scum pre-Judge!Claim. He's been sparing in his posting that I recall, but he brought the case against Jan yesterDay that I felt had merit. Citrus and Jan are posting some amount of VCA, however.

I'm on Snow ToDay because his opening to three dead townies amounts to "oh well that doesn't matter" when we lost our Judge, Cop, and Poison-immune. His reasoning is "soupers gonna soup". He implies our vaccinator is dead or stupid rather than potentially roleblocked, in a way that I construe to mean he's aware of exactly what happened. VCA indicates Snow is Scum in addition.

You(Atum) I am Scumreading per Titus' last "wall" prior to death. I can see you fitting as the final Scum with Snow on the surface - how well that holds up if I actually scrape any deeper into the thread for interactions and such is in the air right now.

After that it kind of cascades down to Typhon|Jan the most.

It would be safe to assume that Kabuto did not waste one of his two-shot aping on Orochimaru?!Rubi N1 given that the only outed role was supposed-Titus and TMNT. By holding off until N2 so that he could act N3, Titus had been confirmed via New, Waco and Pozzai had been confirmed by each other.

Now. What if we haven't hit Orochimaru!Rubi but Kabuto!Rubi? And the original Souper is still alive and has been holding back, as I suggested was possible D2 to better their odds?

*ahem*.

So Fonti or Banks IYO were Sakura. Yet Pozzai is the only one vaccinated, if he was at all and this isn't a case of Wine. Hm.

 

I think discussing further why Pozzai is the sole survivor is pointless.

---------- Post automerged at 12:47 AM ---------- Previous post was at 12:45 AM ----------

Yeah today has been slow. Granted we have an extension that makes the day-end feel less pressing, and furthermore we kinda need Newcomb around.
Pozzai
Yesterday ended up with that last-second flurry/crapshow because the townfirms stood around and let it happen. It's likely that this will happen today if you don't take some control of the direction of the day. I strongly advise you to do so if things don't pick up so end of day yesterday doesn't happen again

---------- Post automerged at 12:47 AM ---------- Previous post was at 12:47 AM ----------

Also thoughts everyone:
Do you think Kabuto dug for Orochimaru last night or not? (aka can he soup tonight)

 

Was I speaking to you? Fuck off. Do something valuable. Help confirm or debunk my focus on Snow as Scum. Pressure your own Scumreads.

---------- Post automerged at 01:51 ---------- Previous post was at 01:48 ----------

EBWOP: And then you go and add that stuff.

I could see a world where Kabuto used one shot N1 on Fonti, to help affirm her role if they had suspicions about her and her interactions with other players. But realistically I'd say yes, Kabuto can Soup ToNight.

 

/10char

 

:facepalm

Do something instead of wasting space, Citrus. Spread the love around. Help Kalas on Jan so he'll not pull a Typhon on us and indicate...

Huh. Now that does bear examination.

Answer me straightly, please, Citrus. Is it a Scumtell to say you will give analysis of a player, repeatedly, and then not follow through, but state 'This and this and this look good from your posts' and then when asked for specifics, no follow through is given?

I'm leery of going down this route against Typhon given he has stated RL for the cause of no massive wall on my posts being given(see? I can learn!). But he still never pointed out anything when I quoted and asked him for a few highlights in the closing hours of D3 that he was on(and I think I asked him about it earlier and he just said 'your beginning and end looks good still working on your middle').

Typhon, I'd expect you to have at least a few of my post numbers saved, man. Give us something to work with, please.

---------- Post automerged at 03:53 ---------- Previous post was at 03:52 ----------

EBWOP: And the 'you' I'm using in that question about Scumtell is metaphorical(but Typhon), I'm not accusing you of such.

 

I think they saved the dig for Orochimaru for a time in which they know at least one role that is not me for certain. Using their last dig yesterday with no idea who is what seems like a good chance of a wasted opportunity.

I will be fairly afk the next 24ish hours alas.

I would really like to see a fleshed out argument from each of the nonfirms on who is the most likely scum and who is the most likely town.

---------- Post automerged at 11:10 ---------- Previous post was at 11:10 ----------

Outside me and Newcomp of course.

 

My reasoning is if we're positive digging didn't occur last night we could force the scummiest wagons to claim...?

 

Okay, I'm back. Sorry I've been so inactive. I'm not a high post count player in the best of times, and between losing my phone on vacation and this medical stuff and the Fourth of July, I know I don't have many posts. I think I've been fairly content heavy when I did post, which makes me feel a little better, but I digress.

I took a couple days to kinda get myself lined out after the clusterfuck that was my Wednesday, and I'm good to go again. So let me read the pages I missed, and I'll be back into things.

---------- Post automerged at 01:22 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:02 PM ----------

Z, I don't know if you saw the part of 3484 addressed to you, and it didn't actually have any content, but I didn't just never say anything else after the post you were referring to. I finished the read and updated you to slight to moderate town and offered to quote some of my findings, I just was grinding to a halt in trying to get that post out, and I needed to post more so I just quit. No point in giving you an incredibly detailed case if my conclusion was that you were town, imo. Still, here are some quotes from my notes on you.

And some conclusion stuff, addressed to you.

Would you like more stuff? It's mostly in that vein, but I could grab some more.

To others, haven't really dug into the vote analysis yet, but I will. Also, I was about 3/4s through with a Snowvon wall on Wednesday, so that'll come today too. Ask me whatever, should be here

---------- Post automerged at 01:29 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:22 PM ----------

Oh, another thing - happened across Atum's last scum read (unless I missed one, which I think is unlikely, since I've read the latter part of the thread twice now but isn't impossible). It was over a RL week ago, around 1000 posts ago.

Are you really content to just lynch through your outdated scum list, a list that includes both Qg and I as scum? You can't possibly think we were scum together, can you? We need you in here with some content, man, because what you're doing right now is scummy as hell. Even if you think I am scum, what are your other reads? Do you have a case on me or anyone else? Give us something.

 

That's better. Thank you, Typhon.

 

No problem! I had assumed you read 3484 and just didn't care to see anything.

 

Zen: what you don't seem to understand is that as more people die, I'm getting closer to having to reevaluate my townreads. If you've exhausted the non-town pile, then you need to start taking a look at weaker townreads and why they're weak.

What do you think of Sakura, then? I legitimately don't see what else it could be.

I have to say, this is a new level of aggression coming from you.

Pozzai: I have no fleshed out arguments for why Zenzao and Atum are town. They just are. Citrus' posts make him look really unaligned with Rubicon, so he's probably town (or 3P again). And then there's Jan, Kalas, and Typhon.

 

Lets restart the show again .. copying the list of live players and writing about what i like and dont like about them.
Lets see how this works out.

First off a few general thoughts of mine about the state of the game.

I feel pretty good about our lynches d1 & d2. We most likely did hit Poisoner & godfather, just because of how everything played out.
That leaves 3 worlds right now, and i am really unsure what the real one is.

1. Qgqqqqq was mafia. In that world he most likely was the roleblocker. That ,for me, is a pretty unlikely world, mostly because of the lack of other wagons that day.
There was a small wagon attempt by Titus and Kalas. Both were too little and too late.
If Qgqqqq is mafia he is more likely to claim a townrole at the end of the day to either survive, lure out a counterclaim or spook town in case someone else claims the same role later down the road.
Him not trying that makes him more likely to be town or 3rd party.

2. Qgqqqqq was 3rd party. Someone mentioned he played a bit like a third party that knew he would not make it till the end. That scenario is possible
As third party he knew he would never get the copcheck he needed to live till the end as conftown.
And he was far to high on the killlist to dream to make it till final 3.
In this case he could try to claim a townrole to survive, but with only 2 townroles dead and a souping incoming the next night, he would still not make it till the end.
If he was 3rd party, he decided to towside in the end.

3. Qgqqqqq was town. He didnt have as much fighting spirit in him as other might have.
Him not claiming as town makes sense if he didnt believe himself to be important enough to survive.
Him claiming would kill him in the night because everyone knew a soup was coming, thus making it easier for mafia to soup in the future (having another confirmed townrole out of the game.

I think it is unlikely that Qgqqqq was groupscum. Weak town or 3rd party.
As 3rd party he didnt have the information he might have wanted to have to fakeclaim.


So next up my impression of people in this game in general.

Snowvon
Fonti townread him day1. defended the townread later on, that is a plus for him.
I like him on a personal level which makes it a bit harder to read him scummy (esp since i have not played with him and dont know how to read him).
I do agree that he comes across a bit weak in activity and trying to solve the game.
The fact that not a single groupscum voted on him at the end of d1 reads kinda bad.

Citrus
His day 1 was kinda weak. It felt like he was mostly raging at people for mistakes that happened. As town he could have tried to stop that form happening instead of raging at people afterwards.
He read me pretty obvious town day 1, and then switched his read on me later on without a good reasoning for it.
Read him more towny from his part of the day 2 Mathblade interaction.
Mathblade backing of at the start of day 2 was kinda odd, not only because we assume she was godfather and thus new Citrus could not be checked.
Also because we now know Newcomb was roleblocked n1, and so the whole thing was a bluff. I have no idea how or why mathblade claims to know that (Ino/Chouji/Sakura could have all targeted citrus).
I mostly liked his d3 play .. he jumped a bit much between people without having a real direction (started on Jan-> snowvon->Jan->Zenzao->Qgqqqq->Snowvon->Qgqqq)


Zenzao
His day 1 was really close to his townmeta, making him towny.
I like that he was asking from Titus to actually try to make a case on ppl and not just throw out names.
The read on him earlier this day by Atum was rly spot on.
More towny
Zenzao is not the same allignment as Kalas (both voted on me day 1 with Mathbblade and again the two of them being the only votes on me d3. scum dotn allign like that)


Atum
Feels kinda smilar to Snowvon in regards to activity.
I liked some of his post, but i dont feel like he has been pushing anything with a strong mindset of his own.


Kalas
Didnt have a feel on him for most of the game.
His case on TMNT felt towny in general, and he would be confirmed town for me if TMNT would have been mafia.
The way he went on me felt mostly towny, trying to build a case. He didn't really lie or strecht a lot for the short period of time he had.
His case on me wasnt really strong, but since i am town i dont expect him to be able to find that much. (the biggest case would be mathblade calling me cop end of d2, which is more of a gamble then a case).
Again, not scum with Zenzao for the same reason as stated earlier.


Newcomb
pretty much conf!town.
Curious if he got blocked last night, since he is the most likely target to be blocked this game.


Typhon
On the opposite side to Qgqqqq on day 2. both were scumread and one would have died back then if it were not for the waco/pozzai vs. mathblade event.
while the attack on Qgqqqqq read kinda towny and he has a lot of reasons why he did it, sinc ei dont believe Qgqqqq to be groupscum, i am not sure about him.


Pozzai
Conf!Town, why is he alive?
I realized one more reason. maybe he lives because that way mafia have one more nightkill on a confirmed and we dont have to speculate why which unconfirmed town died. That scanario makes only sense if the most townread uncofrmed(s) are mafia.
He also has not a role of real power at this point, which makes it more likely from that perspective. To do that mafia must have planned ahead, and i am not sure if they can.



Now a pure activity list of all the living people. Remember this list does not include the fact that people wrote less than other for outoffgame reasons.

Pozzai 392
Citrus 228
Zenzao 216
Jan 195
Newcomb 190
Atum 146
Kalas 141
Snowvon 125
Typhon 97


Just pushing this out there for the moment .. will try to look at possible pairs of two later .. those reads were mostly out of my head. If you want to talk about anything feel free to ask.

---------- Post automerged at 23:48 ---------- Previous post was at 23:34 ----------

Oh there is a mistake by me!

Zenzao and Kalas are NOT scum together!
They can be both town.

They can be same allignment if they are both town.

 

Those are my collected notes on my Snowvon . Not quite as exhaustive as the Qg case, but yeah. Thought I would just dump those here because I drug out the notes for a long time, and now I'm a little tired. Will reread tomorrow, see if I missed anything obvious.

Analysis time:
-I abhor meta, because I'm essentially a new player wrt you guys, and I have no way of knowing if it's accurate or not. It's also inherently less accurate than relying on the scummy or towny things that have actually happened in the game. Worst of all, it relieves the pressure of having to make a real case when you can just say "umm, it's a meta read". Snowvon's game has basically consisted of meta reliance, which he has acknowledged more than once. It's not quite as bad the inconsistency/soft reads that characterized Qg's game, but it's pretty damn bad. From my position, it's an unassailable argument, and one that requires nothing more than gut and say so. I had no clue this game had so much meta-reliance from you till I did this read. Welcome to the top of my scum list.

-What prompted this read was the fact that Pozzai put forth the idea that he might've been left alive because he was Snow's only defender among those that were townfirmed. The read supports that potentially being the case, due to the fact that he is somewhere between inconsistent and noncommittal with Pozzai all game (till he was townfirmed) while mentioning him a good deal. Not quite as uncomfortable about this as I am with all the meta stuff, it's more of an incomplete thought than anything, but it seems well within the realm of possibility.

Other than that, my issues are in the cautious, "I don't want to rock the boat" play that has allowed him to skate along under the radar the entire game, and the way that a wagon appeared and imploded at the end of day 3 over a very short time.

I'm not as convinced of his scuminess as I was with Qg, but this is more than enough for me to be happy with a Snowvon lynch today.

Vote: Snowvon

 

Snowvon
You really need to explain very well who we should lynch and why, or you're going to be the lynch for today

---------- Post automerged at 02:04 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:03 AM ----------

(looking at the vote count and general apathy)

 

Snowvon

Could you go indepth to explain why you didn't join Fonti's wagon on me day1? In our prior game you trusted Fonti's townread so much you basically rode it to the end, in this game you didn't even presume to put pressure on me day1, and jumped me early day2 after Fonti died?

What changed between first and second game to break that trust, especially since she was right on me in our first game?

---------- Post automerged at 11:32 ---------- Previous post was at 09:26 ----------

I guess the latter part you didn't know at the time, but you were still okay riding her read.

 

Okay, look.

I firmly believe Zenzao, Atum, and (it's a weaker read but still) Citrus aren't scum. I just don't. Atum had some really towny responses to when he was being attacked by Titus, I think. Zenzao has been aggressive (a little too much but whatever) and trying to solve the game. Citrus is not aligned with Rubicon.

That leaves Kalas, Jan, and Typhon. I thought Typhon's push on Q looked opportunistic, even though Q was pretty scummy. That's how I came to think it was groupscum vs. 3P. Q's attitude seemed more 3P-ish than Typhon's.

I've already given reasons for why Pozzai is alive: Sakura fucked up. Like. The scumteam could be keeping him alive for wine, but intentionally keeping a townfirm alive is stupid! It's like town intentionally keeping a scumfirm alive. Not a good idea!

Like if you're absolutely going to lynch me, I can't really cry about it because I'm not much of a game solver. ._. But at least do me the courtesy of not lynching my townreads.

Did you read my QT that game? I literally waffled on you the entire time.

fontisian dying N1 rewoke those 'he totally shot her so she wouldn't catch him' paranoia feelings, and you weren't in my town circle because I do not know your forum meta, and I panicked. That's all.

I have the day off, guys! Feel free to not be apathetic and have a party with me.

---------- Post automerged at 11:16 ---------- Previous post was at 10:03 ----------

-drums fingers on the table while my waiter brings me my seventh glass of Sprite and offers me a free chocolate cake because I really look like I could use one-

I feel like we all planned to have a group outing at a super cool restaurant and I got stood up by /everyone/ and I don't want to leave because it's like, they could be on their way right now, but. And the entire waiting staff has been giving me pity looks every time they pass my table for the past hour.

 

Someone explain to me why Kalas is town

 

I did not, and you may have waffled, but you never pressured me or anything, the thoughts might've been there, but in terms of actions, you followed her townread.

From my perspective, you being less inclined to follow it this game, despite scumreading me, while arguing whether or not it was a play by her to see who'd jump the wagon, comes off scummy to me.

You seemed to be more reserved in terms of taking a stance, because Fonti might be tricking people into joining the wagon only to go "haha, I just jest, scum's on this wagon cause he's town". When reading up on this again at later points this seems to be very careful and calculated and would lean more scummy to me, than it did at the time.

 

Fuck it, I think it's fine to say it at this point as scum would've already figured it out.

Sakura could have been role blocked potentially, meaning less vaccinations given out