Gets tedious eh?

 

Links to the wrong thing I think, but yeah I clearly need sleep or something.

Tobi is a thing though I guess. So there's that.

 

Two random thoughts before I start to ISO Kalas:

1. Tobi = Qg isn't a lock for me. Thus, Tobi could still be out there. It's possible scum hit Tobi with a NK, but not likely. If killing Kalas doesn't end the game and there is only 1 NK tomorrow, don't assume we haven't got all the groupscum; it could be Tobi trying to rep at least 1 groupscum still alive.

2. If Sai is still alive, I think he should claim. At this point, it would be incredibly helpful to know if and/or when we mislynched twice in a row. I would specifically like to know if Sai got the opportunity to shoot after lynching MathBlade then Qg. I don't think scum could risk fake-claiming Sai - with Kabuto likely being tied up puppeting Orochimaru, they have less information about dead players' identities than they "should."

3. We know we've hit at least 1 groupscum, because with 6 players left, the game would be over if all 4 groupscum were alive. It's possible, though unlikely, that there are 3 left and we're about to be at 2 scum vs 2 town in LyLo with a dead Danzo. That would be the worst case. Can't really see Kalas trying a coin-flip poison on me if that were the case.

So I think the realistic worst case is Kalas + a teammate + tobi and 3 townies.

 

I'm checking this now, but that shouldn't be the case(Tobi still alive with multiple town should end the game with town victory even if he could kill one person).

I second Sai claiming. @ Sai, do you get told if you are 0/2; 1/2 etc on mislynches? Have you asked? Were you able to shoot after Qg > Snow?

Maybe. Could you expand on why you think the Scum have less info on players?

Hm. That's worth thinking about.

---------- Post automerged at 23:57 ---------- Previous post was at 23:56 ----------

And I probably won't be doing much more on my read-through of Kalas tonight as I expected, I thought I'd be more awake than this by this time of night and I'm feeling exhausted.

 

Wait, why? Like assume tomorrow it's Tobi and 3 townies. We still don't know who he is, and all he has to do is convince townies to lynch each other until he's 1v1 with someone and he automatically wins since Danzo's dead. Or am I missing something?

A lot of their info on roles comes from Kabuto and PoE. Like let's say they Kabuto'ed fonti - that gives them fonti's role, and takes fonti's role away from every other townie's possible group of roles.

If we assume Rubicon = Orochimaru, then Kalas = Kabuto and he had to burn the 2 puppet shots on Rubicon N2 and N3 to poison N3 and N4. Part of the power of Kabuto is learning roles of dead people, not just using them, and that power is wasted on a dead scumbuddy. Thus, less info on roles.

Like let's say Banks was Sai - a Kabuto who didn't have to puppet Orochimaru might know that and therefore know Sai would be a safe claim.

 

Wow. You actually are right. I checked the OP and it says that Tobi has to die along with the Sound for us to win. Cripes. I've been operating under the assumption that Tobi didn't really matter in the long run.

Okay, that makes more sense. Thank you.

 

Damn, Z. Wtf did you think Tobi's wincon was?

 

Be the last man standing, so of course he'd have to play us against the Scum until he could 1v1.

But I glanced through the town wincon early D1 and never went back to it again, I was always checking roles and interactions and OoO. I figured lynching the last Scum was wincon for us and Tobi simply lost when outnumbered by greater than 2 remaining town at GameEnd without his own kill to use. I didn't realize we had to lynch him as well to guarantee victory.

 

The Leaf

The Leaf is the town faction in this game. The ninja of the Leaf win when all of the Sound nin and Tobi are dead.

Game will technically stalemate over and over until we either lynch or all forfeit.

I'm a ninja, I'm not actually here, I totally didn't just post

---------- Post automerged at 12:27 AM ---------- Previous post was at 12:27 AM ----------

Ah damn it Zenzao already said it, well this is awkward

 

Citrus, mate. Do you have anything new to contribute to the thread regarding one of Kalas(and related Scumbuddies) or Tobi? You done any ISOing?

 

Kalas ISO:

Something that's kind of pinging me after reading ~15 posts of his is the similarity to Atum re: asking a bunch of questions and looking more active and thoughtful than the content actually is. I wonder if in a scum!Atum world this could be some kind of unconscious/semiconscious mirroring.

This is Kalas biting down hard at MathBlade's "Jan said 'mislnch' instead of 'lynch' HE'S CONFIRMED SCUM KILL HIM KILL HIM DEAD AIEEEEEEE"

And then after Titus claims, talking about a potential Tsunade CC and why it would be good.

I almost feel like this looks good for MB in retrospect. Like, if you're scum and you know MB is town, doing a hypothetical where Titus is scum you'd be more likely to use the phrase "hard confirmed" - like you know they're town, and the hypothetical would 'prove' it to the rest of the thread.

I'm not articulating myself very well on this point, but does anyone else get that feeling from Kalas's interactions with and about MathBlade?

Here's something potentially interesting. This is after Titus claims, she asks Kalas a question:

Here's the response. Kalas's idea of confirmed town in a (true) town!Titus world:
Titus (town)
Newcomb (town)
Pozzai (town)
Citrus (?)
Atum (?)

Z and Qg get thrown a "haven't really read them, but they'd probably be on that list as well" mention.

I wonder if Kalas would be cheeky enough to list all actual town as confirmed town. Somehow, I think he snuck a teammate on there.

This reinforces my Citrus and Atum bad thoughts.

This is after Waco pops in after the Titus claim to ask wtf is going on, and Zenzeo gives him this recap:

Kalas then quickly drops this in:

Yeah... okay. I'm willing to consider a batshit-crazy-but-town-or-possibly 3P-Math and a Rubicon/Snowvon/Kalas/Atum scumteam. Anyone see a way this is impossible?

Good to know that Titus/MathBlade exasperation is the Grand Unifier between scum and town.

The long-awaited Atum read. Here's the TL;DR:

The weird thing about this is that when you read the actual analysis of Atum's posts by Kalas, the highlighted part isn't backed up by any particular reasoning that I could see.

When pressed by Titus to explain, we get this:

He adds:

That's... not really what happened? There really was no potential counterwagon to TMNT; I mean yeah Banks was on Rubicon but there weren't exactly a ton of votes or anything. TMNT claimed because it looked like he was going to be lynched.

More Atum defense when Titus presses the issue. This is kind of solid at first blush, but when you really think about it it's addressing a hypothetical that could never happen - Rubicon was dead at this point.

Then you have Titus not letting it go:

And Kalas responding:

OR.. as town!Jan pointed out yesterday before his untimely death... there is one piece of information that Atum and Kalas had here: that there was a green check on MathBlade.

Scum knew there was a copcheck on MathBlade N1 - and no matter if MB actually was Sasuke or a real towny, they knew it was a green check. So Atum going hard after MB could have been a way for scum to kick up dust and see who came to her defense knowing she checked green.

Stopping there for right now, but I have to say, Atum is looking real suspicious to me right now.

Kalas today, Atum tomorrow if the game goes on, is where I'm at right now.

 

I'm pretty sure the game-state right now is Tobi + Kabuto!Kalas
I'm almost positive Kalas is Kabuto, because otherwise Orochimaru sat on poison ability for like the entire game

---------- Post automerged at 02:28 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:20 AM ----------

Mmmmmmm Im going to a little bit and see what I think from there.

Unless Newcomb fake-claims my role or something on that level, he's conf!town. It is mildly mildly possible he's Tobi in a hail mary world but I dont really want to account for that unless something indicates we should post-claims

5. Zenzao
7. Atum
13. Typhon

Honestly, if we're not mass-claiming I think it's a waste to discuss things much further.

If any scum are still alive beyond Kalas we are in auto-loss.
If it's just Tobi, then there's one kill left in the game. That kill will almost definitely be used on Newcomb since he's psuedo-confirmed town.

To counter Tobi at that point we would need 2 solid town players. As long as we have 2 players with massive confidence are town, we're in auto-win.

I think it's most useful to go ahead and begin mass claiming today to make it as hard as possible for scum to fake-claim a role that's dead. If it's just Tobi and we get a counter-claim, we enter auto-win. Else, we have the further information of seeing if roles fit play-styles for whether we believe claims or not.

And now that I've done this analysis I'm almost definitely in favor of mass-claiming (and willing to go first in a sense). How do you guys feel about mass-claiming/the stuff I've said?

To actually address what's been asked of me:
1) I'm not really interested in iso-ing Kalas. He's a good enough player that I don't think I'll beat RNG on his wine without trying really really hard to analyze everything
2) My preferred lynch order of those 3 above right now is probably Typhon > Zenzao > Atum. I think Typhon is scummiest of you 3, but Zenzao is my strongest Tobi!read (fits into the space of loud/effort to not get lynched but not correct enough to get night killed). I really need to see more from Atum from here on if possible because his quietness has moved him from a >>/>>> to a > (I think he addressed it a few pages back?)

---------- Post automerged at 02:28 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:28 AM ----------

Fuck sorry for pinging you guys, I was copy pasting >.>

 

On mobile and in bed, checking in one more time.

I think you're on to something, New.

And that Citrus is a. saying we don't have anything worth doing toDay but lynch Kalas or mass-claim, b. refuses to ISO conf!Scum, and c. is doubtcasting New(lolwut?) and myself without a case is once again putting him into the Scummy range. In point of fact, Citrus, bring a case on all of us. I'd like to see your thoughts.

And yes, by all means, go ahead and lead the light brigade with a hard claim.

I'll sort out the rest of your post later this afternoon/evening.

 

Is that even true? 6 alive now. Assume Kalas + scumbuddy + 4 town.

We lynch Kalas today, a town gets NK'ed.

We're left with 1 scum / 3 town.

That's not auto-lose. That's MyLo which becomes LyLo if there's a No Lynch.

And even LyLo is mitigated by the presence of Sarutobi, who can tie with scum 1v1.

 

I think sitting on our hands debating the points of Kalas's posts is a waste of time. If you guys want to spend the day doing that, feel free.

And that's not doubtcasting Newcomb. I'm not saying anything to reduce the influence of his reads, I'm actually saying I'm basically not going to account for worlds where Newcomb is not town unless something is VERY contrary like he claims my role, which is a straight up scum-claim from my perspective. If anything that's the opposite of doubt casting, its saying I feel comfortable risking the game on that read.

In any case, if you guys want to continue to just analyze Kalas's posts feel free but count me out.

In my opinion Newcomb should claim before he gets shot by Tobi. This means we might as well all claim today. But I'm not going to shift from neutral to drive unless I'm positive that's the right decision today

---------- Post automerged at 03:03 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:02 AM ----------

Assuming Kalas + scumbuddy + Tobi, sorry that wasn't clear.

A 1 scum / 3 town world is weird, because that makes Q Tobi, and I really don't think Q was Tobi

---------- Post automerged at 03:03 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:03 AM ----------

I really don't think Snowvon was Tobi either by-the-by

---------- Post automerged at 03:05 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:03 AM ----------

Thoughts on mass-claim today Newcomb?

 

I'm now wondering if we were right on Rubicon all this time. Is there any indication from Math/Kalas that points to them being upset or too happy to agree with Scum!Rubicon? Particularly Orochimaru!Rubicon? The only thing we have really been going off of is that Titus and TMNT survived N1 whereas Fonti was NK'd, why wouldn't Orochimaru Soup them then?

Because, I've said it for a while now, and that is that Orochimaru could have been sitting on his thumbs all game and waiting for proof of claims before acting(see what happened to Kalas when guessing goes wrong, ha ha!).

First Souping kills were N3/N4. That fits the narrative of a. waiting and letting us assume Orochimaru!Rubicon over say Kabuto!Rubicon, and b. proof of hard claims(Titus backed by New, TMNT judging, Waco by Pozzai and cop-check on Math, Jan's is a little more iffy given last minute claim).

I'm tired and writing from memory. So does this check with what we know? Kabuto!Rubicon, Orochimaru!Kalas? And now that I've written all this out, it occurs to me to ask does it really matter if this world applies? If Rubicon wasn't Scum it does.

And new thought. OoO should tell us the order of NK to Souping that HF uses in his opening posts. Does one take precedence(I think HF said Souping is immediate)? I'm still wondering about Pozzai and if he was vaccinated and Souped or NK'd.

Also-also, I doubt it would have happened, but was anyone roleblocked lastNight? I'd have expected someone to have said so by now if they were to clarify on Guren!Snow or not, but as I said yesterDay, there aren't really any RB'able roles still in play except for maybe Sai.

Man, this post turned out far longer than I'd intended it to ten minutes ago. Can't think straight at the moment, should have gone to sleep a few hours ago :/.

---------- Post automerged at 04:19 ---------- Previous post was at 04:12 ----------

Bring your Tobi!Zenzao case, Scum!Typhon case then, Citrus, if you won't contribute to town winning the game. I mean this is just anti-wincon to do nada but bitch about us mass-claiming. If anything in my current state of thought that Rubicon may actually have been town and Kalas is Orochimaru, you could be Kabuto.

Also, funny how now you're backtracking on yourself claiming while pushing for New to go 'now before you're NK'd'. New should go last. You go first, mister volunteer.

 

In a 2 scum + Tobi + 3 town world, we're in the same spot - only Tobi's in a great position to win since he's (in all likelihood) immune to NKs, has a vig shot, and wins every 1v1.

Lynch Kalas, 1 town dead, left with: 1 scum + Tobi + 2 town. Not auto-lose. But Tobi just needs to avoid the lynch. If a townie gets lynched with that group, either scum NK the last town and Tobi wins, or scum NK target Tobi and nothing happens and we're down to F3 of scum/Tobi/town.

So you're saying it's really really really important that we find Tobi.

Okay, so who's Tobi if it wasn't Q or Snowvon?

Be aware that a response like "gee, I dunno, there's really no way to know until someone fakeclaims my role" is an answer that will get you bumped ahead of Atum on the lynch list.

What do you see as the possible benefits of a mass claim? Like, what does town get out of it?

---------- Post automerged at 01:35 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:22 AM ----------

I wasn't. I'm not sure what to read into that other than Garun=dead. However there's other things to take into consideration, like the fact that I was a soup target and Garun's 1-shot redirection ability.

Also, the reason I narrowed down my roles by claiming roleblocked is that if you don't have a town power that can be roleblocked, you don't get a message if Garun targets you. Like, Z maybe you were "roleblocked" last night but you're Sarutobi and thus you wouldn't be informed.

NK comes first in Fluff's list. I mean, that's my conclusion from reading the posts. It's not alphabetical, and on the nights where there are multiple deaths, the immune ones (Titus=unsoupable / Pozzai probably vaccinated) are listed first.

 

Newcomb For Town the only real reason to mass claim is to try and trick Tobi into a CC.

Tobi gains a lot from learning who Sarutobi is however.

---------- Post automerged at 07:50 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:45 AM ----------

Oops. My apologies, forgot you don't like being tagged.

---------- Post automerged at 07:51 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:50 AM ----------

Though if anyone has any questions feel free to ask. Waiting for the game to end is boring.

 

At least read my dad posts, second time you misconstrued

I said Newcomb should claim today but claim last so it's all or nothing mass claim day, seriously read my posts slower or something. Second time...

---------- Post automerged at 10:01 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:00 AM ----------

Sarutobi doesn't survive lynches though, so no gain for tobi knowing him?

---------- Post automerged at 11:33 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:01 AM ----------

Newcomb, do we mass claim today? Yes or no?

 

Wow, way to quote all of that for nothing! And still zilch for cases. I attack you and you do nothing.

Math/Kalas/Citrus/Atum, with a side of Q/Snow.