Well you were in that game and was at least aware of how your scumbuddy was playing. Also you're town this game (probably), so I trust that you'll at least give it some thought.

 

I just got home from work so I'm going to put off thinking about things for a little while.

btw, am I your top townread yet?

 

No, but I don't think we should lynch you today. I'm still townreading Scott as my top town for reasons I already went over. I know you guys think it's weak but I'm sticking with it.

Basically the reasons you're town are entirely meta? Like people are talking about this being your town game, and it's not like wolves would straight up lie about that, and you did act really different last game, at least volume wise. I don't think you've really done anything that you couldn't or would never do as scum, so right now with you I'm going with "town until proven otherwise."

Like there are 4-5 people I really want to sort out before I even consider if I'm wrong about you.

 

Well the obvious similarity is Citrus this game and Kalas last game called you town d1 for something they did not want to talk about. (If you don't want to talk about it dont mention the read, just sayin)

I like how Kalas said he expected Citrus to be more active as town, sadly he was outed scum and we don't know how honest that opinion was.
Because this games Citrus was more active early on, and i have a hard time reading into it.

 

Unfortunately I have more stuff than I expected to do today, so don't expect me until the evening (like 5 hours or so).

Glad to see there's more content to talk about though, things seem to be picking up vote wise too which is a good thing

 

Boo.

I'm on a mission to get shot here.

 

Hope i am still awake when you are back citrus, would like to have a real time talk to you at some point. No real hurry, I just feel it might help me in reading you.

Von and I welcome every one at our dinner table, later tonight!

Same cannibal house, same ungodly time (for europeans)!

---------- Post automerged 13-08-2015 at 03:10 ---------- Previous post was 12-08-2015 at 23:32 ----------

The haunted house is open again.

I am playing some videomafia right now, but down for some quiet dinner conversation with whoever dares to enter.

 

Jan I'll go ahead and put my cards on the table re: those links from the last game.

Here's what I think is a possible thing that happened.

So, in the first quote, Kalas is scum there. Scum can pick up a townslip easier than town, because they already know what they're looking for.

Citrus's townread of me here reminds me a lot of what Kalas did that game - and Kalas kind of pocketed me doing that. I mean he seemed town for other reasons, but it did just kind of work on an emotional gut level as well, like I was more inclined to believe him because he seemed to have this insight into me being town, and I was town.

In those last posts, you see Kalas and I talking about that after he's outed scum. Like I say to Kalas, basically, "damn, well done, you really had me fooled." Citrus was also alive at that point.

Is it within the realm of possibility that Citrus picked up on that interaction and decided to pull off something similar here as scum?

Basically I knew something pinged me about how Citrus hard townread me. I originally thought it was TMI, then I switched to "very astute town pickup" and now I've got this "meta pocket attempt" theory.

I actually wouldn't mind info lynching Citrus at this point, because if he's red, then it tells us a ton about the game. Like, His Fluff would basically be lock clear, Vira looks way more towny, Seratin looks moderately more town, ScottPress is never on his team (see that weird back and forth where they couldn't get on the same page).

Purely based on interactions, lack of interactions, and gut, I could see something like, if he is scum, his partner or partners if there's 3 scum being in the Wei/blab/Rubicon cluster.

But, all of that is kind of resting on this one starting point, and I absolutely don't want to pull a MathBlade here, so I'm curious what people think about that first link in the chain.

 

Second Offical Vote Count

Seratin (3): weiyaoli (137), Newcomb (143), Zenzao (208)
blab (2): Jan (235), Snowvon (236)
Newcomb (2): Vira (48), ScottPress (112)
Citrus(1): Hisfluffiness (59)
His fluffiness (1): Citrus (76)
Vira (1): blab (68)

Abstaining: Seratin, Rubicon

Accurate as of Post 268. Majority Lynch is 7.

Day Ends at this time/.

 

Rubicon, you demon, color your vote.

---------- Post automerged at 21:59 ---------- Previous post was at 21:58 ----------

blab, why are you still sitting on Vira? You've been watching her, now what?

 

I actually like all the wagons right now (except for mine obviously.) If we consolidate over the next 24 hours on just the people who are getting votes now, I think that's pretty good.

Seratin, take a stance on something and vote. If you vote for me and you by some miracle actually are town, you'd better be reasonably sure it's me over the other wagons, because if I get mislynched D1 with you on my wagon after this the way this day has gone, you're getting lynched D2 100% of the time.

In no particular order, I want HF to do more things, I want Jan/Snow/Zen to weigh in on my Citrus theory (and the Wei=Tyhpon thing), I want Wei to make a real case against someone, and I want blab to post something that makes me think he's invested in a town victory.

 

vote: blab

 

his fluffiness
Why did you assume I was trying to set you up when I asked you that original question?
Do you think you were defensive when you answered me the first time? The second time?

Still want these answered (also hope you're feeling better!)

FoS stays on Fluffiness for now

Unvote

---------- Post automerged at 12:32 AM ---------- Previous post was at 12:23 AM ----------

One and a half days left IRL for D1.

Vote: Seratin

Like this more than Blab right now, though I'm ok with Blab also.

Blab, if you want Vira lynched you need to give a good case.

Seratin's technically at 5 since I'm assuming Blab would move to Seratin.

Liking Seratin more because of:
1) Don't like the initial PR statements. Actually, I did like the fact that you did them because they were bold. And I also liked that you said they were for reaction testing.
Here's the "but" - You never followed up on the 'reaction testing'. You didn't bring up a list of players that brought it up. you didn't analyze players' reactions, hell I don't think you even made a case for someone as a townpoint OR scumpoint by how they 'reacted'. I've found myself doing what you did as scum before - setup a reaction test but then never follow through.

2) Didn't agree with what you said about me about halfway through D1, especially in light of you switching suddenly to a town read a little while after. Initial read felt fake because of this and also because I didn't agree with the logic behind it (wouldn't see myself thinking that was a correct interpretation/whatever from your eyes).

3) Didn't really like what you did in response to pressure. A few votes piled onto you, and then you made a long arrogant post, and I don't really remember any posts since then. You didn't try to direct the pressure anywhere beyond off of yourself.

The only point I saw for Blab being scum was he hasn't really scum-hunted D1 (and hasn't really since being called out either). Anything beyond that Rubicon or anyone else?

---------- Post automerged at 12:33 AM ---------- Previous post was at 12:32 AM ----------

I really need to go to bed now but I'll be around tomorrow morning (and should be most of the afternoon/evening I think this time?)

 

Skimming the last 5 pages or so, and this caught my eye this go-round.

What the hell, Z, you do realize TMNT was town that game, right? Going "X, but also maybe Y" is hardly alignment indicative. If anything it's more town than not. Scum have an agenda to move; they need to get a mislynch. They're going to try to push a specific world. Townies especially at the start of the game absolutely can't live in one world or else they'll MathBlade. (Not to pile on MathBlade or anything, just the most clear example from the only game I've played.)

Like, it's a subtle but powerful difference. Fence sitting is saying, "here's some things I saw, they could be meaningful." That's scummy. Fence-hopping is saying, "here's some things I saw, I think it could mean X or Y, and given Other Factors A and B, I think it's more likely X but I'm not sure."

Like, I've gone from "Citrus TMI'd me and spewed me town, he's scum," to "Citrus keeps asking questions and his scumreads line up with mine, he's probably just town that had a really good insight," back to "oh shit, I just remembered scum!Kalas pulled the same move in Narutomafia. Coincidence? Would Citrus swag on me like that? Better ask people who know him better."

TMNT wasn't nearly as engaged as I am, so the difference wasn't as distinct, but it's different, damn it.

---------- Post automerged at 10:57 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:44 PM ----------

For transparency's sake:

(post in question)

It's entirely a joke. The picture is a bunch of citrus fruit arranged from green to red. I'm saying "just tell me your alignment please," because I was tearing my hair out trying to figure out the "Newcomb is definitely town" thing.

 

This is much, much weaker than the case for blab -- your second and third point are especially questionable -- so I'm surprised your vote lands on Seratin instead.

The first, about not following up on reaction tests, applies equally to blab. Why do you say you like Seratin's reaction test but still search for a reason to suspect him? What did you expect him to do that he didn't? How is blab different?

Actually, you steadfastly avoid giving a clear read of blab here, simply saying "I'm okay with blab also" and "the only point I saw for blab is not scumhunting." Which isn't true, considering I gave you several other reasons.

(You even mention one yourself. Why is he still voting Vira? Why was he ever voting Vira? Who knows.)
Seratin his fluffiness Vira ScottPress weiyaoli

Would any of you consider switching to blab?

---------- Post automerged at 11:44 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:43 PM ----------
Citrus, you should comment on Newcomb's theory.

 

My last big post (readwall in #112) was almost 150 ago, so I thought I'd do another summary of what I'm thinking.

Snowvon

Wasn't completely sure of you before, but the way you've been posting and seeing others post about you (players who I believe to be town) swayed me solidly to one side. Pretty convinced you're town at this point, though there's always a tiny bit of room for doubts. Certainty doesn't seem like the best policy in mafia.

Citrus

Like before, I think you're town. Since my #112 you've been asking questions, trying to get people to justify/clarify their opinions. I think that's a good sign.

Vira

Newcomb acused you of lying about him in his readwall. I looked at the case and I think the truth is in the middle. There was some generalizing and Newcomb may have been trying to sneak in a strike against a player who seemed towny (because he's scum). Your response to him in #157 was snappy and I don't know if I liked that you phrased it that way, but I agreed with the... er, substance of it. You also called me out when I was being a hypocritical dick and I liked that, even though it was perhaps less relevant to the game. Subsequent posts seem towny. That's all.

Jan

Stronger townread than before. Similarly to Vira, you've been asking questions and in general I liked you later posts than your early ones. Early game was kinda weird, but we're on more solid ground now and foundations of opinions are settling down.

weiyaoli

Weak townread. You've had a few posts that I liked (#137, #249) and that's pretty much it. You're slightly above Rubicon.

Rubicon

Last time I couldn't nail a read on you and this time the situation is only slightly different. You're a weak townread. And I mean weak. My reason for leaning this way is that I agree with some of your reads. For now, you're in the middle.

blab, Zenzao, Seratin

There are reasons why the three of you are in the same block.

Zenzao was a stronger scumread last time while Seratin was among my townreads. Since then one rose, one fell. I'm still thinking Zenzao is a scum candidate, but now Seratin is also on that list.

As for blab, I was looking at other people's posts and I'll admit that this is mostly a reaction to that. Myself, I wouldn't put you among my townreads and I decided that's where you fit in best - among suspects.

his fluffiness

Your answer to my question about Newcomb didn't mean much to me. I mean, I get that people are comparing his playstyles between this game and Narutomafia, but I didn't play Narutomafia, so I can't draw much from that. I pay attention to those remarks, but they don't really impact my reads. You're a weaker scumread than before, but you're still on the radar.

So, his fluffiness, I would like for you to tell me what you think of Newcomb and Zenzao, based on this game only.

Newcomb

Still my strongest scumread. You got really frustrated at the reactions you were getting. Some people interpreted it as a towny breakdown. I didn't. To me, it seemed like newbie scum who's frustrated that he's not exactly blending in. Right now only Vira agrees that you deserve votes. I'll come out and say that at this point in time (assuming my opinions don't change before day ends) you would be my pick for day 1 lynch.

Newcomb, I wouls also like to know why you wanted people to deliver reads "without looking over the thread". I mean wut? That seems counter-productive to effective scumhunting.

And I would like for Jan and Vira to tell me why they did it.

Rubicon, I will consider changing my vote, though I like it where it is. If it comes down to L-1 for blab close to day end, I could see myself joining in to lynch if nothing else is an option. For now, I'll keep my vote on Newcomb.

Tbh I did for a while consider voting Seratin, but the I saw that two of his four votes are from Zenzao and Newcomb and my interest evaporated.

 

I agree that that does feel similar. Be nice if Snow could find his motivation long enough to agree/disagree rather than shrug.

I'd say it is within the realm of possibility. Seems a bit weird to do that, but Scum tend to favor particular tactics, and Kalas has blended in exceptionally well before. Looking at that Citrus post you linked above, in conjunction with thinking about why he's posted about you the way he has, and something that I believe may be a slip of his own, has me wondering right now.

I'm going to sit on what I believe Citrus has slipped on for the moment but you're correct in that he could be Scum and that shifts things pretty hard. That said, until the first flip at DayEnd and the second at NightEnd, I'm still favoring HF/Seratin and maybe Blab.

The point at TMNT was that he started off scummy by doing the 'X but Y' argument. It's just a generally scummy thing to do, period, because it comes off as you not actually believing in your reasoning on that player and trying not to be actively involved against them. The only reason we didn't lynch him for his behavior was the Judge claim. That said, your explanation does seem to fit what you've been doing when I think about some of your posts. And I still need to do that ISO for full clarity.

Yeah, I wasn't talking about the picture. I was talking about "what. In zero worlds am I w/w with Citrus. You can call one of us a wolf with a separate case for each one, but we're clearly an unaligned pair. In a Citrus scum, Newcomb scum world, how does him calling me town with conviction and me calling him scum for doing so make a lick of sense?"

There's just something about it that makes me think you two could be pulling some kind of bizarre variation on classic bussing.

Gonna interrupt you here. You like Rubicon for his readwall, or his reasoning for those reads? It isn't hard to fake reads particularly when trying to mask Scumbuddies. Obviously at least one is going to get pushed toward the bus but the others should be seeded with care into the townread area.

I don't see reasons in that area. Wanna explain why you're scumreading me? Throw out something I can actually grapple with and consider and debunk?

And this is the only reason you're scumreading HF? Nothing that anyone else has raised against him(Citrus primarily)?

 

Zenzao

I thought that was self-explanatory. I agreed with some of Rubicon's reads. There isn't a whiff of a mention of his reasons for those reads.

Why I'm scumreading you:

First of all, what's the point of recapping the first 70 posts or whatever you were doing in your readwalls? You're not helping anyone who's read beyond that point and at the rate you seem to be going, I treat your reads with caution because if you're not caught up on the thread, then you don't have all the information. (#108, #189)

I don't know why you posted the scenario breakdown. I wasn't that interested in it. No one's playing to lose, the towns are trying to lynch scum, scum will kill the townies who are getting them right. Instead of writing that you could've read up on the thread more. #187 is a lot of words, but little substance. Filler. And a big post like that that's just filler instead of scumhunting made you look scummy to me.

I don't like Newcomb, but #53 seemed like a joke. Codes are disallowed in the game, jokes are not as far as I know. That didn't even look like a scum slip-up to me. Just a joke. You hanging on to that seemed like saying something without actually saying anything. Why did this post look bad to you? You said in #207 you didn't know what to make of it. Do you know now?

On the other hand, you've been asking questions and I liked the observation you made in #252, which is why you're less scummy now than you were in my first readwall.

HF and Newcomb are my two top scumreads. I suspect the third one (assuming there are 3 scum in the game) is among you, Seratin and blab. Seratin and blab seem more scummy to me than you, but I'm keeping you on my radar. You fell from my scum leaderboard because of the things you're doing that seem right - engaging people, asking questions, apparently scumhunting.

In conclusion, what you've done since #112 (when taken all together) has made me like you more, not less, but there's still enough suspicion to not townread you just yet.

HF has 9 posts and among them maybe one or two that add to the discussion. He's surfing over that day saying little (Seratin has even fewer posts, but I feel he said more in them - still reading him as possible scum though) and it seemed like his vote for Citrus was out of spite for Citrus pressing him about the question he'd asked HF (#59). I also liked Citrus' reasoning for voting HF (#76) better than HF's for voting Citrus.

 

So, I've been pretty much focused on a small selection of people so far, so I'm going to try and look at everyone (in sets of 3 to keep it manageable), hopefully to finish before the day ends so I have my reads down for the whole of D1 before it ends.

I'm starting with Snowvon, Rubicon and blab, pretty much arbitrarily chosen - the order shouldn't end up mattering too much if I'm planning to eventually go through everyone.

(Apologies if I get preferred pronouns wrong)

Snowvon

My general thoughts on Snowvon before starting the ISO:

I haven't seen anything that particularly concerned me about his posts. I have an impression that he's made a lot of short, content light posts (not too sure if that is true or not). He's been town read by a lot of people because his behaviour is different to last game? I read through the last game, but wasn't particularly following it as closely to get reads of people etc..., so can't say whether that's true. I also don't really know him that well yet from just this D1 and this one game, so I don't really know if this is his town game. I'm townreading him, but nowhere near as certain as some of you seem to be. So let's see if this makes me feel more certain.

#2 - I don't really have much more to say about the RVS post than I already did when asking Zenzao why they voted for Snowvon.

#8 - I like his thought process. He's putting out his thoughts early on any non-RVS stuff that had already happened in the thread (namely the question by me and response from zenzao).

#11 - He is following up on his dislike of Scott's RVS vote, which I like. He has not just slung something out there about Scott to see other's people's reactions to it, but is actively trying to understand Scott's vote.

#13 - I don't really have anything to say about these kind of posts, but I think they are the reason I have the impression that Snowvon has been making a lot of short posts. It's looking like this is his posting style, so I'm not really reading too much into it. I'm still including links to them so people can follow along all of Snowvon's posts in order and also ask me any questions about my thoughts about people's posts that I may not have commented too much on.

#15 - I don't think he's been all that defensive about the RVS votes like fluff says. I'm not getting a vibe of "why me" from his dislike of Scott's vote, but more "why are you the third vote on me p1 D1". At the same time, I'm not really reading too much into this response. I don't feel scum would feel pressured from 3 RVS votes, so apart from the lack of a any over defensiveness (which would have been scummy), it's a null response.

#18

#60 - Another fairly null post, but understandably so, since it comes before his reads post.

#62 - Fairly proactive mindset. I like how he is not parking his vote on blab, hoping to maybe get a different response out of blab, but moving onto the next thing and person he finds suspicious. It's a bit thin liking Vira's post based solely on agreeing with the town reads imo, but it's not like he put Vira as strongly town because of it or anything.

#64 - I'm liking his engagement with the game so far. Could be that he's gotten a cool (scum) role, but I feel his mindset has been towny so far.

#67

#69

#77

#79 - Another pretty short post, but it's not like the questions directed at him required much more response than this. Leaving aside the reason he's been posting short one-liners (being in the cinema), I like that he's not posting a longer, more convoluted read on fluff/Vira for example. They were towards the middle, null region of his reads of people so far in the game, so I would have been more suspicious if he had tried to give more concrete opinions on them.

#82 - It'll be a different story if once he gets the chance to post again after this he still doesn't have a stronger opinion on Citrus/fluff though.

#96 - Dunno. Personally I read a little more into the Citrus/fluff interaction, so I was expecting a slightly more solid response. Not necessarily as far as whether it made either 100% town/scum or anything close to that, but still more. I agree with his observations, I guess, but it's just a bit wishy-washy and non-committal. Slightly dislike this post.

#98

#101

#103 - Hm, not sure how to read his interaction with Rubicon so far. It's like, fluffy pokes and prods at Rubicon? He's not really ended up talking much about blab so far either apart from expressing his dislike of him here.

#115 - another fluffy post.

#120

#122

#124 - I don't really understand the flow from #120 to here. He's a bit suspicious of Citrus for attacking fluff based on that one question, but now votes for fluff.

#126 - I mean I follow his reasoning about fluff, and agree that they haven't done much yet, but I'm a bit more puzzled by the lack of a comment on Seratin, who he was previously voting. Seratin's posted more since Snow's vote on him, so it's not like there was nothing to ask/talk about wrt Seratin.

#129

#134

#136 - I like his thoughts about Zenzao, but I'm getting a little concerned about how so far I've only really liked his posts when he is talking about his townreads.

#146

#148 - I like the prod at Newcomb about Scott.

#169 - Feeling better about Snowvon after this post. The more proactive player is back, and is looking at understanding why people are doing things.

#171

#173

#175 - I quite like this back and forth (the last three posts). He reads genuine and engaged.

#183

#188

#190 - Gonna just echo stuff I said earlier and say I like his proactive prodding at people.

#192 - (phew, thank god for lazarus extension, at this point accidentally closed this reply tab). Actually, can you explain why you found Vira townreading fluff to be weird?

#194

#196

#198

#200 - I like his read and explanation about Seratin - just, I don't really understand why his vote was still on fluff at this stage.

#216

#220

#222

#224

#226 - String of fluff posts, but it's not like he's being non-committal like earlier about fluff/Citrus. Reads just like he's having fun with the game.

#228

#230

#236 - Explain your reasons for voting blab please?, plain voting for him is not telling me much about your thoughts about him.

#260

#262

#266 - My thoughts about this whole wanting to be toptown! thing has fluctuated a lot through reading his posts. It was a bit strange when he first brought it up, but since then the sheer frequency of them has me town reading him . It just doesn't read the least bit gloaty as I might expect from a scum!Snowvon being happy to be highly townread.

#270 - These short proddy posts to people are the majority of what I'm townreading Snowvon on.

Summary:

I'm still town-reading Snowvon after that. I like his many short prods and posts trying to understand people's thought processes and pointing out what he believes to be weak/odd reasoning. I'm still a little wary though. That bit in the middle regarding Citrus/fluff in particular and the lack of engagement/follow-up after voting for Seratin is a bit odd. Plus, he does it pretty much again when voting for blab (but this one is more understandable, since fluff's been ill so didn't really post much to respond to/ask about).

I can definitely see why I remembered mostly short posts from Snowvon. It's not even that big a deal though, since actually if you look at post numbers, most of them are very close to each other (and many posts are auto-merged). So it's not the case that he's active lurking by posting short posts occasionally.

Without the meta reasoning as well, I'd still consider him firmly town, but I'm definitely watching him closely still and his interactions with the people he is voting for.

Woops, that took longer than I expected. I'm cutting off this post now for a quick break before going back to Rubicon/blab. I probably won't do a whole ISO on them though, but just relevant posts I think.

What do you consider a "real case"? I posted my reasoning why I thought Seratin was scummy in #249 and it's why I'm voting for him, since he didn't answer any of my concerns the first time. Please actually explain if you think any of my reasoning was weak/bad.

I'm a little suspicious of blab after people have pointed out actually how bad his posts have been, but since I'm just about to do a detailed read over of him it would depend on if I end up finding him scummier than Seratin. If I end up finding Seratin still the scummier one, since it doesn't require a majority lynch:

I'd swap if the votes were tied at day's end so that we don't NL, but otherwise I'd probably stick with Seratin.

 

I haven't really paid attention to Blab today. I don't remember you saying any arguments beyond him not scum-hunting - if you did one, could you, you know, quote the post so I can look through it?

My point was that I like reaction tests BUT he said his was one and never used it as one. That's a solid scum-tell. Had he followed through I would have given town-points (imaginary) for it, which makes me think it was more contrived for looking town than actually to analyze/separate the player base as a reaction test should aim to do.

I mean, I was ignoring it because I thought it was a bit...dumb of an argument. But I guess I can address it if it really makes you that happy