Rubicon

General impressions before:

I've not got a lot to go off on Rubicon. I've got a detached, more laid back impression from him so far in the thread. I remember agreeing a lot with some of the stuff he's said, but don't have a particularly strong read either way from that.

His first few posts:
#29, #32 and #37

They are a bit bare bones. He asks questions, but he's keeping things pretty close to his chest. He prods at Newcomb, but I don't get a sense what he is looking for.

I really like this post though:
#40

I agree with his questioning here. It's a very good point, and I was also guilty of unthinkingly asking the same from Jan. I mean I don't think in this case Jan did have any extra knowledge from the cop and I was more curious about why Jan went to Zenzao we "both" know X, but still it's probably the wrong move to point stuff like this out, unless there is a good scummy reasoning to know more about the set-up in some way than other people. In direct contrast to #32, I'm also getting the feeling that he wants to know why Newcomb is doing Y. Probing motivations instead of just asking questions.

He's back to keeping things close to his chest here: #46, but he does still give a read (Don't think Newcomb is towny for making that post).

No comment on #52, except to ask: What are your thoughts on Newcomb's theory regarding Kalas/Citrus? Answer after Citrus comments on it if you'd prefer.

#54 - I mean his statement does achieve pouring wine on whether Citrus/Newcomb were the doctor/vig from the question I guess. It's a bit odd that he responded at all though, and not in a way that asks why the question was being asked.

#99, #102 - I'm finding it a bit difficult to read Rubicon so far, since there isn't much to go on. He states a couple of people are town, without much reasoning (okay, sure whatever), but more importantly I don't understand why he was suspicious of blab at this point. He's definitely taking a role of not saying that much himself, except barebones reads, but asking a lot of questions, e.g. #133.

I like posts like #135,#150 and #153 though, for similar reasons to #40. He is keen to understand why Newcomb's top town read is Scott. It seems clear the insinuation is that he find Newcomb suspicious: #155.

My biggest problem with reading Rubicon so far is his suspicion of blab. In the thread I can see why he find Newcomb suspicious for example (e.g. #176), but whilst he interacts with blab in the thread, e.g. #159, I don't really follow why he is:
A) Suspicious of blab
B) Not voting for blab

However, I like his explanation at this stage why he wasn't: #182. I feel I understand why he's been confused about the lack of engagement from blab and this following post #219 also feels genuine.

His last few posts in the thread:
#231, #237, #242, #245 and #272
I'm really on board with his reasoning behind his actions - they are logical. He finds blab the scummiest and is trying to convince other people to vote for him. I think he looks a lot better if blab flips scum and a bit worse if Seratin flips scum.

#275 - Not gonna comment on specifics before Citrus responds. But I really like him picking apart what he considers a weaker vote on Seratin.

Summary:
Pretty hard to get a pin on earlier on. As the game went on, I'm feeling better and better about him. I think he's town, but probably slightly below Snowvon in my confidence about that.

Taking another (longer) break before reading blab, been at this for a couple of hours already.

---------- Post automerged at 02:15 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:14 PM ----------

ninjaed by Citrus.

 

1) It's pretty difficult to make a solid town-read right out the gates as scum because you're narrowing down your mislynch pool (unless you wanted to night kill that person or something). In Narutomafia, you became a widely-townread player before Kalas did that I think? If someone is widely town-read it means jumping into the spotlight as scum if you try to go against the grain and it's not like you're going to get that person mislynched anytime soon.

2) Honestly, this argument in general isn't even really an argument. It's like a "well I saw this happen this one time, what if it's happening again." It's like saying "hey guys it rained last time Snowvon was scum and it's raining GUYS I THINK SNOWVON IS SCUM." Like if I were scum this game it would be a caught-scum-for-wrong-reasons type situation from this argument.

I guess the only point would be noting Kalas town-read you and got more town-points from you? But I don't think I've ever looked back into individual player emotional reactions to being read (maybe I should someday when I'm scum heh). And it would be, you know, kinda dumb to immediately copy a scum's method from a previous game in the very next game, especially when they were the most long-lasting and thus would be the most scrutanized.

Also, this entire argument is predicated on me trying to get a townread from you Newcomb off of it? But I'm pretty sure if I was scum and wanted a townread from you so badly, I could have pulled it off just by my normal scum-play without having to resort to weird tactics (not saying my baseline is fabulous or anything, just that I don't need to make weird moves at the beginning of D1 to do that when I could probably do it with normal play).

---------- Post automerged at 08:18 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:17 AM ----------

It's a Weiyaoli ninja sandwich now basically

---------- Post automerged at 08:21 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:18 AM ----------
Zenzao

It's incredibly hard to pull off massive distancing from the get-go to the extent it would have been occurring if I were scum with Newcomb. If it were that easy trust me, it would happen A LOT more in flip games. This is at the least tinfoil level conspiracy theory, just saying, and there's not much space for that D1

 

Who's the ninja, and who's the sandwich?

 

Touche!

Was about to say I was surprised to see someone up as early as me, then realized you're from the UK (which rocks, don't get me wrong haha)

 

Hey kids.

wei, the short answer (because I'm on my lunch break, even though it's not even 11??) is that I didn't think fluff did anything to deserve to be townread at that point. I voted for blab because he is a very capable scumhunter and has a clear thought progression when he tries to solve the game. Here he is more reminiscent of his Third Party self rather than his Priest self (see Endgames and Witchhunt 4, respectively, to see the difference in blab's play).

 

Where I'm at right now:

TOWN
Citrus

Newcomb
Snowvon
Zenzao

Scottpress
Rubicon
===null=== Blab, Jan

Vira, Fluffiness
Seratin
SCUM

Missing: Weiyaoli

I skimmed Weiyaoli's earlier posts so I haven't put thought into a read on him yet, partly also because he seems fairly widely townread and I'm willing to just trust those reads for now.

Tried to space it out so it's a little representative of the town-scum spectrum (with me on there for relative spacing).

Someone ask me something.

 

Blab

Thoughts before re-reading:

To be honest, until Rubicon voted for him, I had totally forgotten blab was in this game. I mean I vaguely remembered the meta thing about blab finding Snowvon towny if he voted for him or something like that, but I couldn't really say what blab's thoughts were on the game or who they found towny/scummy. So basically, not a great impression.

Since he only has 13 posts, so there's no reason not to do a full ISO:

#21 - Can anyone explain the first part of his post? Is it a meta observation, or a joke? There's not really much else of substance to analyse about the post - it reads as a bit of a jokey observation rather than a serious point/paranoia against Snowvon.

#68 - (The unnecessary apostrophes pained me )
I like his response to Newcomb and question to Seratin. I don't like the random Vira vote though.

#70 - filler

#80

#91 - I know he needed to respond to Newcomb last post, but is this really all there is you have to say about Vira? :?:

#95 - meta commentary on Snowvon/Citrus. I don't have the meta knowledge, so I'll refrain from commenting on their accuracy etc... Dunno, the most noteworthy thing blab has done so far is to comment on Seratin's post and talk to Newcomb about Snowvon. Oh and the rapidly stranger vote on Vira.

#104 - I like his follow-up to his question to Rubicon. I'm kinda expecting an epic meta case on Vira at this point now though.

#156 - I'm on blab's side here (however small a side it is to take). I thought the question was perfectly clear. Just, where are his opinions? He had some in #68. Since then, nothing has come from him.

#193 - 'Cause this is filler

#195 - filler night (more seriously, okay blab you have a town tell on Rubicon, what else do you think about people?)

#197

#199 - If Rubicon was keeping stuff close to his chest, I have no idea what to call this behaviour from blab.

#201 - Dunno. I like his question to Seratin for example, just like I liked the last one he asked Seratin. But, there's just no follow-up. What happened to the meta case on Vira? Seratin didn't really answer blab either in the first place the first time, but there's no chasing him for a clarification.

Summary:
I don't have a great impression of blab so far. It's just the fact that there isn't much there to read. He's just been absent. Don't have the meta knowledge on whether that is typical for scum!blab, although many of you say it is. His lack of follow-up on Seratin is a bit concerning. I'm still waiting for the meta case on Vira. And answers to some of the questions posed to him.

He just seems a bit disinterested, to be honest. Without the meta knowledge, I'm not sure how to read it. It's pretty suspicious the lack of follow-up on things and I can see a blab/Seratin pairing being possible. It's a bit frustrating that both Seratin and blab have vanished again though.

---------- Post automerged at 05:24 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:20 PM ----------
Citrus, read over blab's posts, I've provided you with handy links to all of them in order. I want to know what you think about blab.

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Revisiting blab/Seratin, currently I'm still happy with my vote where it is after reading through blab. I'm now suspicious of blab, and would be happy to lynch him as well since I can definitely see them both being scum by their interactions.

When I have time later, I'll go over Vira/ScottPress next, since they are also in the nebulous zone of slight-town/null/slight-scum for me right now.

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Why is Jan null?

 

Jan has been a combination of townish-perspective while looking at players he isnmore familiar with and not much scum hunting or emgagement with other players (thats what i remember anyways)

will definitely look through blabs posts youvquoted in a bit, in classnright now

 

Citrus,
Your ranking looks fine to me, nothing special.

The only people i read completly different are Vira and blab.

Blab not reacting at all rubs me the wrong way.
I really dont want this to be one of those cases where 2 out of the 3 most scumread ppl (blab, fluff, seratin) just dont talk for most of the day and then end of d1 we have to decide with nothing to go on.


Weiys three Isos read good so far and give him back the towncred he lost for not doing that much in the last day(s).
I personally would have not analyzed Von, but thats not the point.
The Rubicon summary is good, and fits with my impression of him.
Same for the Blab one.


Newcomb
regarding you comparing today Citrus to last games kalas.

I read his full townread on you in a similar way, esp. his reasoning for it, and that is the scummiest thing he did this game.

I don't think he would copy that play on purpose. I think you thought of it, because it involved you last time, but I doubt anyone else had it in the back of their head.

Citrus - #51

Then don't mention it in the first place or just make up a read out of thin air. You could just wait a day and maybe you find a good reason for that read.
Giving that read in this way is anti-town if you are town, or plain scummy if you are not.

---------- Post automerged at 18:55 ---------- Previous post was at 18:51 ----------

I am at home for the evening, got some cleaning up to do and some cooking (might involve minced human meat), and may play some games inbetween all that.

If people want to talk I should be here. Will most likely read a bit of Scott if nothing else happens.

 

I explained why when I asked. There is a lot of bullshit in this game. Scum spew bullshit on purpose, town spew it when they get fixated on things and start seeing town through wolf-colored glasses (which is what you're doing with me, by the way. But we can talk about that after the game.)

I thought it would be helpful to cut through the bullshit by using that exercise as a kind of 60,000-foot view of where everyone's at. I wanted others to join me because I wanted to know what parts of my own view were holistic and subjective versus what parts were closer to objective.

What I gained from it at the time: the idea that Jan and Wei could be slipping through the cracks and coasting on towncred. Based on things they've done since then, I'm feeling better about them.

I'm right there with you. (Although I didn't pick up on the slip, if there is one.) In fact, the fact that you brought up the Wei=Typhon thing before I did, when I was gearing up to go there, has me pretty much ride or die with you at this point. Maybe some of last game is carrying over onto this mentality, but if you're scum, congrats, because I'm nestled directly in your pocket.

Agree to disagree, then. It seems like towny behavior to me. You watch Parks and Rec? This conversation reminds me of this scene.

With an emphasis on the bizarre. The interaction I had with Citrus at the beginning of the game, I mean, it seemed so clear to me that looking at it from a third person view, anyone would be like, "yeah, unaligned." I'm too... weirded out? Focused? Abrasive? Focused, I guess - I'm too focused on "what the fuck was up with that townread". Like, why would I ever do that to him as my wolf buddy?

I went and looked back over #249 and it was better than I remembered. The problem I'm having with you, Wei, is that your posts even when they make good points, are just not.. memorable? The conviction is there, but it's not on the surface. That could be a me problem in that I'm just not reading them well enough, or it could be a you problem with the way you structure your posts. Like, you're almost coming across as too measured, reasonable, and armchair-speculative, whereas my mental image of town is scrappy, combative, down in the mud and passionate about pushing their PoV.

I guess what I was really asking wasn't about making a good case - your Seratin thoughts, when I really parsed them, match mine pretty well - but was more about showing that you're heavily invested in pushing your case and invested in seeing the right person die today.

http://makeameme.org/media/created/yes-yes-we.jpg

I agree with both of those.

 

Seratin

You currently have the most votes. You should claim your role now so that people have time to switch off you, if they want.
weiyaoli

I think I know why Citrus townreads Newcomb for that interaction. If I'm right, though, his theory is probably wrong.

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Newcomb, you said you thought Citrus wanted something out of me, instead of scumreading me. What did you mean and what made you think that?

 

Do we really want to get into hardclaim-CC clusterfucks on D1? I mean, it was an epic disaster last time. How about we just lynch Seratin for the high crime of woofing?

Let's say Seratin claims a PR and no one CCs. Would you, Rubicon, encourage Wei, myself, Zenzao, and Citrus to just move off automatically?

 

He is going to defend himself eventually. His call if claiming his role is part of that, as is responding to arguments against him, which is all factored into how each of us react/respond to whatever he said.

 

I was talking about this post:

Followed immediately by this post:

To me, these pokes and prods at you felt... designed? On the surface, they seem like perfectly towny "ask questions, get answers, figure out Rubicon" type questions. But there's something about them that pings as "leading questions" to me, like he's trying to maneuver you into a particular position.

I say that with the caveat that it hinges on my kinda tinfoil-y "scum!Citrus emulating Kalas" thing. It's like an if-then statement. If Citrus is scum, then when he flips, we should go back and look at this interaction in greater detail.

 

I just don't get why everything I say has the possibility of being leading/trapping people. Like that's not even my scum style and I'm baffled at the fact that people think I'm doing that.

This and the thoughts that I might be scum aligned with Fluffiness and/or Newcomb.

Like this is how Mathblade's buildup felt for me before she went ham on me in Narutomafia. Just what

---------- Post automerged at 03:01 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:58 PM ----------

Like it's getting to the point where it's not even slightly cemented in reality.

Citrus townreads X. Hmm might be scum with him.*
Citrus scumreads Y. Hmm might be scum with him.*
Citrus scumreads Y based on his response to Q. Must've set Y up with Q.*
Citrus asked W a question. Must've been trying to set him up like he did with Y.*

Like what am I, the master scum-manipulator who's secretly on a scum-team with everyone I ever mention? I don't even understand where these arguments come from.

*yes all these came from this gamethe last 15 pages

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I mean I guess different people came up with each of those separately and then they all think their own thing, but when I'm seeing all four I'm just like wtf is going on

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Also yeah Jan that's a good point, to be fair I didn't expect that one sentence to immediately get spotlighted/pinned as a central topic of reading me

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Looking at Blab's posts now

 

Wait who thinks you're w/w with Fluffiness? That's asinine.

Citrus the last post I made is tinfoil. It's not even saying you're scum, it's saying "if you're scum, then these are important posts."

I'm like, dead null on you right now. You are hard to figure out, and you were last game, too. I pushed on you D2 for reasons that turned out to be completely wrong, and I'd be lying if I said that wasn't adding to my turmoil here. The Kalas emulation thing, I mean it's a reasonable point that it would be a weird move from you as scum, but, like, that's exactly what you'd say as scum. Or town. I'm not really interested in you defending yourself against it, because I think you'd react the same either way.

I don't think we should lynch you today, but if I'm the cop I'm checking you 100% of the time tonight, because you're kind of the lynchpin of this game for me. Like, if you're red, HF should be basically clear, Seratin/Vira look a lot better, etc.

 

After reading Blab's posts again, he's still at null for me. Now if he was Rubicon, I'd be ready to push a lynch down his throat because that's exactly how Rubicon's played his scum-games the last two games . I don't have a good calibration on Blab's scum game but I don't think it's worth lynching him in a vacuum with lots of time left in the day.

If the wagon moves from Seratin to Blab, will I shed any tears? No, and if he's town and gets mislynched it'll be his fault if he continues to stay in the shadows.

I'm a little unhappy with Fluffiness's disappearance because I wanted to get more responses and reads from him, but that's not his fault since he's sick so yeah (*note - not unhappy with him, just unhappy that he got sick and can't post as much at a time when I would've wanted to engage/interact more with him).

I'd consider a lynch on Vira today as well, though I need to look through Vira's posts to cement my read a bit more before I'd just wave my hand to that.

I would be against a lynch on anyone else (ranging from a little uncomfortable to no I said NO) today.

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Someone said it IRL days ago, might've been Zenzao?

There's really nothing I can say to that. I'm not Kalas, I have my own scum-play. Really asking for me to say anything more (or even that) is way down in wine country, hence why I dislike responding. It's a waste of time as anything I say would be chalked up to basically the sentiment behind that spongebob meme.

Just to point it out, you're predicating that on if I'm scum. For a cop check that's fair, but you said a few posts ago that it might be good to mislynch me for the same reason and that's very different because A) I'm town and B) even if I was a coin-flip probability on alignment that's an eggs-in-one-basket type move that's a pretty dumb move

---------- Post automerged at 03:16 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:15 PM ----------

You're also doing the exact same thing I was complaining about.

If I were scum, I would've likely distanced from someone on my scum-team. You basically just took my entire sub-null grouping and said "hey guys if he's scum everyone he scumreads is looking more towny"

Like can we stop with the absolute ideas that apply sometimes and applying them all at once? Because you're basically just math.randoming at that point

---------- Post automerged at 03:17 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:16 PM ----------

Anyways, I have to go for now and it seems like that's all there's been for me to address so far today, so yeah

 

WitchHunt-style setups like Narutomafia are special. They're designed to discourage claiming except in specific circumstances, because of the Souper role.

In typical closed setups, if you're going to be lynched anyway there's no advantage to not claiming.

If people decide not to lynch you, the worst that happens is you get night-killed. And being night-killed is always better than being lynched. You get to use your power at least once, you might get protected, and most importantly, town gets a chance to lynch scum instead.

You should only claim if you're actually about to be lynched, of course, and only if you can't convince people you're town through your actions. But that's the way things seem to be headed right now.

Depends on what he claims. How convincing is the claim? How likely is the role to be in this game and aligned with town? Can we confirm the role somehow? Can we expect scum to shoot him if we leave him alive, taking the problem out of our hands?

This is why I asked him to claim now, so we have time to wait for a counterclaim and think it through.

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I forgot HF was sick. That makes me feel a little better about him.

---------- Post automerged at 01:23 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:22 PM ----------
blab, please do something town before deadline. Thank you.

 

Yeah Citrus I feel your pain if you're really town. You did get unreasonably tunneled in Narutomafia and I'm not unaware of that. I'm fine just tabling this until tomorrow. I said I'd kind of like to info-lynch you, but honestly that would be pretty selfish as it would only really help me understand the game state.

Rubicon,

That makes sense. He's at 4/7 with ~24 hours to go, and if he does claim a PR there needs to be time to hash it out, so... yeah, okay, I'm on board with this. We want to avoid a last-minute shitshow above all else, correct?

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Also FWIW I completely agree with this, no matter which alignment you are, which is why I asked Snow, Zen, and Jan about it and not you. I'm not sure why Rubicon pressed you to comment on it, but I don't really see the merit because this isn't something you can reasonably be asked to defend against.

 

Except it doesn't help you understand the game-state better.

You spend lynches on who you think is scum. You DON'T lynch someone because you think it might give you SOME information on other players unless you literally don't want to lynch anyone. Or it's LYLO and it's a case of hedging bets or something like that.

Even from a probabilistic point-of-view it's the worst type of lynch. It's a win-more lose-more scenario if you are totally null on me. If I'm town you get NO information of the type you're looking for AND lynched a townsperson. If I'm scum you lynched scum AND have some wine-drenched info on other players.

Like that's just a horrible idea. Stop that.

A cop check is different, the logic does kind of hold there (and for other reasons), but it's flat out not pro-town to go lynching players you're waffling on unless you have no scum-reads and then you're in a pretty crappy place in terms of reads anyways

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I can be reasonably asked to defend myself, and I think I know why Rubicon did it, the issue is with interpreting what I say (which is why I tend to dislike responding in the first place in those types of things)

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I was going to feel bad about dominating the thread/posting too much, but then I remembered that like half the people being wagoned aren't posting and it's basically me/Newcomb with scatterings of Rubicon right now as the only ones around