Yo, Waco. Welcome. How scummy has Scott's play been to you - and how do you feel on Fonti, given that the two of you entered the game from similar positions?

I'll post more as I can. Vira's summary is accurate.

 

Ok, I'm back.

Well, like I said, blabtisian looks bad. More thoughts when I reach a computer.

 

Day 1 - votes right before blab/fonti got pushed on :

Citrus (2): His fluffiness (59), Seratin (87)
His fluffiness (2): Citrus (76), Snowvon (124)
Newcomb (2): Vira (48), ScottPress (112)
Seratin (1): weiyaoli (137), Newcomb (143), Zenzao (208)
Vira (1): blab (68)


Day 1 - 3 votes later :

Seratin (3): weiyaoli (137), Newcomb (143), Zenzao (208)
blab (3): Jan (235), Snowvon (236), Rubicon
Newcomb (2): Vira (48), ScottPress (112)
Citrus(1): Hisfluffiness (59)
His fluffiness (1): Citrus (76)
Vira (1): blab (68)

This is the point where scum could have easily decided to go one way or another.

Citrus unvotes
Citrus -> Vote Seratin
His Fluffiness unvotes
Vira unvotes
Vira -> Vote Seratin

Are the following votes.

Possible scum not swinging on the fonti wagon before the Seratin wagon takes off is really weird to me, unless they are both scum, OR scum is in the afks.

From my perspective it is sooo unlikely that Fonti is town here, because

a. Rubicon flipped town, I know I am town and i read Von town.
- counter-wagon to a flipped mafia has no mafia on it? only likely if that person is mafia as well.

b. her vigishot claim, which is close to impossible, from my perspective.

c. I did not like blabs play d1 before he left (see here #235. to be fair that accusation was a try to poke at him and get a reaction, which he never gave, and he got replaced for it.)

d. the way she jumped at me early day 2



Next step is about checking why which other player voted who they voted and when they did it.

I will try to not my read on those people influence the following part.

The first two votes on Seratin are dead and already flipped town

Zenzao votes in post #207. That post itself is a continuation from earlier, where he started to go throw the thread post by post and analyze it. he gave up douing so shortly after. HF and Seratin are his topscum, he votes Seratin.
No problem there.

Citrus in post #273
Jumps on the wagon 64 posts later. He has three different reasons that all read well.
He does not disagree with the blab wagon, but prefers Seratin at this point.

Vira #310.
Jumps from Newcomb on Seratin. His reasoning is kind of weird.
"I'd rather lynch Seratin, anyways"
If that is your opinion why stay that long on Newcomb?
And why mention it like that, just switch and give a good accusation.

PressScott (now Waco) #380
If both Fonti and Seratin flip mafia his reasoning is mute, because as mafia he has no other wagon to jump on.
"The race is now between blab and Seratin and unless I'm very wrong, they're either tied or Seratin is up by one"
He was very wrong. Before he voted Seratin was up 5-3. He put him at 6 which was a range where Seratin could have been hammered.
Depends in part on how Fonti flips, if she is mafia the towncred he got for voting here is gone.


I will talk Vons vote on Blab when I am done cooking .. and I will also talk more about what i wrote here.

This is just a post that kinda evolved while writing.

As said I am only talking about the motivation the people gave in their voting post here.
Reasoning they gave beforehand is not included, will look at that next.

---------- Post automerged at 03:39 ---------- Previous post was at 01:46 ----------

Ok so Von .. this one is a bit awkward. Since your voting post didn't have any details i searched your previous post for reasoning.

Why exactly did you mafia read blab d1 again?
You kinda scumread blab early on, then talked to him why he reads Seratin town and you read him mafia, and then softly push a blab lynch.

Tell me if i missed it but your reasoning BEFORE the vote is pretty slim :

#2 - Day 1 RVS-Vote

#62 - Blab within your bot 3 the only thing you say about him is :
"I wish blab had done something in addition to joking with me. But he has only one post so I'll move my vote."
Which is close to nothing.

#222 - Fluffpost but u mention him as someone you are afraid of.

#226 - Reason, kinda.
"I probably can't read blab, he's been a self-resolving slot in most of my games with him (either because I was scum, or he was caught!scum, or he was outed!Holy)."
Or rather a excuse depending how blab flips.

Here are the other posts mentioning blab that have even less content:
#69
#101
#103
#194
#196
#198
#200


I read you town for your activity and the spirit of your play.
You were kinda inquisitive on day 1, and we were going the same direction all game.

After you having no reason to town townread me up to this point, and no big reason for your blab read pre vote.
Just for fun, can you give me your reads before the day is over?



I still think Fonti is most likely mafia, because her vigi claim and me living makes no sense, unless she got blocked by a mafia and this is a actual framejob.
Rereading that part of your game just made me slightly paranoid.
(I also promissed you a case, to push enough scum on for mafia not to kill you - you did a good job at that EoD2 urself btw)

 

Tomorrow is my last day at work so I'll celebrate by laying out my reads.

Maybe.

Uh. I'll be working from something like this:

Snowvon
Zenzao
Citrus
Jan
Vira
his fluffiness
ScottPress
fontisian r blab

 

For after I flip:

Fake.
---------- Post automerged at 06:47 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:45 PM ----------



Oh hey, Fontisian realized her scum-slip!

 

What are you, a crappier version of me? At least try to make semi decent arguments if you're going to continue to fake it.

You would never string out a claim like that as town, that could be the example in a dictionary for "anti-town"

 

I have two worlds right now.

Likely world :

Snowvon
Zenzao
Citrus
Vira
his fluffiness
ScottPress
fontisian

If Fonti is mafia, which I assume she is,
Von looks pretty good with his push on blab day 1 (regardless of the missing reasoning, him forming a 2nd wagon to his mafia partner would be really weird)

Zenzao and Citrus are more likely town in either world, i will explain the difference in reading them further below.

Vira and Scottpress both get some part of their town cred due to their vote on the confirmed scum, and the timing of the vote.
If there was no counterwagen without a mafia, and with 2 possible afk mafias in the 2nd half of day 1, they would not have a big choice, but to vote on one of their parters, going for the towncred by voting on the already leading wagon is the reasonable decision (If both are a role).


Off-chance world :

fontisian
ScottPress
Vira
Zenzao
Citrus
his fluffiness
Snowvon

This world is if Fonti is town, which is unlikely from my perspective for a lot of reasons. (i mentioned some of them earlier)

In that world Von is likely mafia, trying to form a wagon on blab/fonti d1 without ever giving a good reason.

Scott and Vira voting on Seratin there makes them 10 times more towny, because as scum they could choose to vote on the counter wagon and try to save their partner.

Zenzao and Citrus still look kinda towny in general, but if fluff is town, one of them has to be a well hidden mafia. (everyone else is close to confirmed at that point)


This world only works if Fonti is town, which involves

her not lying about shooting me last night
= she either got roleblocked in some way, or i got medicsaved.

Her missreading the whole game since she joined d2 (rubicon was town, i know i am town)

75% of the people in the game being wrong on Snowvon (he is the most townread person in the game)




His Fluffiness is likely scum in both worlds, but also the easiest misslynch, if he is town. Mostly because of his Illness day1, and his low postcount in general. I will most likely check his reads out next.

Might give some more later, if I have the time.

 

Snowvon moved his vote off Fontisian last second though. If Fontisian's town and he's scum, that means he made a split second decision to save her knowing she true-claimed? I feel like even if the scum-team in that world has a role-block, he wouldn't make that split second call. ESPECIALLY as it forces a tie in votes, scum!snowvon would probably be more wary or doing that...?

 

I think scum!Von is unlikely to care that much EoD2. He could just keep his vote on fonti and claim he was working anyway.

The only reason for him to leave fonti alive would be, because he knows a possible vig-shot always hits town (rubicon or me), or because he is sure about the roleblock thing.
In that world, it has to be a roleblock, because if he counts on the vigishot being on me, he always stacks with fonti to not show 2 kp, since town doesnt gain a lynch if only 1 person dies and it makes her look scummy.
2 kp shown and me dying would make him most likely lynch.


Fonti Rubicon and me dying and all 3 flipping town, would put him high on every kill list, BUT he gets 3 misslynches, which would be the perfect play to trade for his one life. (considering with 8 alive we only have 3 lynches to calculate with right now)


I don't think Von, while working, considers that within the last minutes of Day 2. If someone else did it and he only jumped in to help with the votes, maybe.


All this is speculating about a off-chance world. In that world town will most likely lose the game, because you guys would most likely lynch me before lynching Von (which is understandable from a neutral perspective).

Pretty sure Fonti will flip scum and we have to search for the last mafia within Vira, Waco and HF.

 

Don't think he would claim busy at work, he'd just say well whoops.

But I don't see the motivation for scum!snowvon in EITHER case for Fontisian's alignment, for completion's sake.

Besides, scum von would've killed Fontisian and let her shoot someone else and then he could've coasted on the town!cred?

I think we only get 2 mislynches?

He's the one that turned it into a tie. I figure he'd be more wary of doing that as scum, because it took him from town-town and put him in the spotlight. But this is very strongly his town!meta anyways, at least filler-wise

 

Cant comment about the meta-read.

I do think, and thought from early day1, that he is way more active and seems to have way more fun compared to his scum game.


In a world of 3 scum we have 1 misslynch and a sleep. Sleep should not be used early, because if we can stop nightkp in some way we get another lynch.

8 alive 6-2 4-2 2-2.
If we hit today 6-2 5-1 3-1 1-1

In both worlds a save in the night gives us one more lynch.

 

Exactly, my point is it's in scum's favor to let a vigilante Fontisian shoot at night IF they think her shot will be on a town player AND on a player that they wil have trouble mislynching. It's arguably the difference between having to mislynch that player eventually and just having fontisian kill them.

Which makes it a really dumb decision to 'role-block' Fontisian unless scum is in danger of being shot.

---------- Post automerged at 10:55 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:51 AM ----------

What were Fontisian's reads at the end of D2?

fontisian if you're town, would appreciate you dropping by to reiterate who you town-read/scum-read at the end of D2. Trying to determine who scum would expect you to kill vs. not kill.

Doubt she'll respond to this though, she ignored my other questions initially. If you're scum Fontisian please don't respond (hint: she probably isn't going to respond), I'd rather not waste more time on a silly hypothetical world that you know to not exist.

---------- Post automerged at 10:58 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:55 AM ----------

I guess hypothetically, she had strongly voiced town-reads on me+Snowvon+Fluffiness+Zenzao? Not entirely sure, I brushed through the pages. And then scum/null-reads on Vira+Rubicon+Jan? Not sure where Scott fell, was a town-read too right?

Which makes Vira and Jan the only likely 'shots' if she were to shoot?

If I have any incorrect assumptions in this post please someone point them out, I'm going off memory here and am not super confident this is all correct

---------- Post automerged at 11:04 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:58 AM ----------

Wow fuck just lost my post QQ

Quick summary: If Fontisian is town, 1-2 of Vira/Jan is scum and 0-1 scum is outside those two if assuming +EV pro-win-condition night actions from scum

Reasons to let Fontisian shoot if both scum are outside {Vira, Jan}

1) Removing Fontisian, no way a doctor etc. would be on her, she may give good insight/reads into game before being lynched

2) 2 towns would die at night, 1 less mislynch necessary now

---------- Post automerged at 11:05 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:04 AM ----------

Looking forward to you reaching a computer his fluffiness

 

This is also false. In scum's view, my shot either kills scum or a person who's going to get shot anyway, removes me as a mislynch target, /and/ does not remove a lynch due to numbers.

I scumread Jan, Vira and Von and was iffy on fluff and you. With my fairly unpredictable history, scum could have expected a shot anywhere in there, with a much higher likelihood than not that I would shoot Jan.

Citrus asked me no serious question beyond the fake "you're scum, lol, tell me your teammate." I'm just going to reiterate that he is scum.

This is false. My shot, even if it was a miss, would not have removed a mislynch.

 

That is not completly right citrus.

The moment Rubicon dies and flips town, I am Fontis biggest scumread by far, since she assumed there is a scum between Rubicon and myself.
She didn't like Vira, I think, but I am always her shot.

Your math in the end is off.

Blocking her as town, then killing her and then her topscum (me) is 10 times more effective for a mafia team.
Those are 2 town lynches while they still have 2 nightkills on other towns to make.
6-2 4-2 2-2 and then win the game IF there is no medic save and the remaining town are not even paranoid about the game until it is over.

If they don't block fonti they may kill her and myself in the night, but it also gives town way more flips to solve the game early on.

The game would be on 5-2 right now.
Town still has 2 lynches to find a scum and get to final 3.
But with fonti rubicon and myself all flipped as town, the number of people to push on is lower and there is way more information out there.

There is not one good reason for mafia to play it the way you said.

---------- Post automerged at 19:02 ---------- Previous post was at 18:55 ----------

Mafia only reduce kp with letting fontis shot through, IF town has some sort of doc AND he gets a save.
Both is unknown to them.

 

Game so easy.

 

I almost kinda want you to actually be town Fontisian, because if you are you've basically given me a massive example of you being completely wrong when trying to read me, which I'm sure will be useful one day when I'm scum in a game with you

---------- Post automerged at 02:33 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:32 PM ----------

Fair enough Jan, I was working off the back of my hand without doing the actual number crunching.

 

Depending on the alignment of the FBI-role and the way it works this can become even more fun.

If it is townsided a possibe 2-2 would still be in towns favor as long as the fbi votes right.
(depending on the amount of charges it has and how it works).

IF fonti is town the roles are as followed :

Townsided : Bulletproof (Rubicon), FBI, x-shotvigi (Fonti)

Mafiasided : Rolecop, Roleblocker (in some way or form)



Former minimafiasetup according to fonti :
[those are only the amount of prs for each side town - mafia - 3rd party]

mini 5 : 3 - 2 - 1 (saveheavy prs because of the amount of nightkp)

mini 4 : 3 - 2

mini 3 : 3 - 1 (2 masons for town, kinda weak prs this game in general)

mini 2 : 4 - 2 (shizo being a rng heavy pr that can mafiaside hard)

mini 1 : 3 - 1 - 1

3rd party was only involved in the 13 man setups up to this point.

It is unlikely that the FBI-PR has voting/judge power + roleblock, thats why it has to be townsided, if fonti is town.




On the other hand .. if there are any other PRs in this game, Fonti is really likely mafia.

With this I DON'T want anyone to claim. People should just try to follow my thought process and come to their own conclusion.



IF fonti is mafia the whole thing looks completly different.

Town : Bulletproof

Mafia : Rolecop

unaligned (at this point) : Fbi

Unlikely that the FBI is mafia aligned, because a no lynch would have given them a free nightkill, while keeping the possible lynches alive for another day.
It is still possible, since both Fonti and Rubicon claimed PR (#819) and in this world killing him as possible pr with a lynch before he uses his power/confirms himself is a strong move.

It is by far more likely for the FBI to be town aligned in both worlds.


Talking about the fbi for a second here.

Town knows the role either decided the vote by adding + x to one side OR they are allowed to add a vote to one side in case a no lynch happens(making them a judge).
Both possible.

The problem for this is :

In every Minimafia game thus far there has been some sort of information role for town (cop; cop+schizo; 2 masons; 2-shot-cop; 2 joats).
I do not think this game game will be any different, and i doubt there are 4 town roles for the time being.
With bulletproof, x-shot-vigi and FBI, we already have 3 and I don't see any information role within those.


I kept this post as neutral as possible and only included information that all of town should have anyway.

 

FBI will be townsided FYI, it may be a bit meta-gaming but all these 12 person setups tended to have 3 scum and then the town gets a judge of some sort for ties for balance purposes (though obviously this can't always be true or else you'd have a perma-clear-claiming role)

 

While I agree that it is more likely town sided .. what you are saying if kinda weird.

According to what Fonti said all town PR's in the older games were (#877) :

x-shot Cop, x-shot Doc, Bulletproof, Schizo, x-shot Vig, 2-masons, 1-shot untargetable, bodyguard, JoaT, Desperado

The only role in there that can break a tie is the desperado, if he is alive in the 2-2 situation.

happened in 1 out of 5 games so far, and that was 13 person setup.

 

Can you explain your thought process for that? Because that's a terrible question b/c [redacted]
Jan: in #539 during D2, you said you'd re-evaluate Citrus if Rubicon flipped town. Post the results of said re-evaluation please.

The top of Vira's #914 is horrendously ironic given her recent posting.

Surprisingly perhaps given the tone of the thread when I entered, I actually think Scott played a rather towny (albeit a newish version) on D1 and I think his inactivity has been played up as scummy far too much (one person in particular is particular guilty of succumbing to this lazy habit). Honestly, if i thought Scott knew what crumbs were.

I'm going to hold my Fonti read until I get an answer to my above question. In the meantime Zen, I'm have you at the town side of my reads, so hoping we can pick-up the chemistry you and Newcomb had in Naruto at the end and finish this off.

Will be reduced to mobile posting for the rest of the day, but will be around.